6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.48 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $7,936/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $263/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-41,778 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $88.50 | 88% | $3,975 | $2,415 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 6 × $88 | 76% | $4,058 | $1,356 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 17 Jul | 4d | 30.4% | 99+% | 1% | $40 | $300 | -$3,675 | $21,699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 30.4% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.09 mid) = $40 credit for the 4d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $105.09) 99+% EV / mo +$295 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-6.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,794 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,706 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $112 @ 78% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.94/sh now → $3.49 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $43 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $105.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$21,699 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$847 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,616 (+$14,162 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,465, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,555, position total $-27,179 (+$14,599 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $91 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.0% | 93% | 14% | $350 | $2,625 | -$1,350 | $28,389 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $91 13.0% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.75 mid) = $350 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $91.75) 94% EV / mo +$2,216 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [3.6-6.9] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (5.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~5.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,321 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,164 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.03 mid-life (likely $2.77–$5.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 232 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $93 (overshoots $2.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $57 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $91.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $91): -$28,389 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$847 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,306 (+$7,472 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,155, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,245, position total $-33,869 (+$7,909 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $90 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.8% | 92% | 17% | $492 | $3,690 | -$285 | $34,595 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 11.8% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.86 mid) = $492 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $90.86) 93% EV / mo +$3,006 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.0 mo [3.3-6.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.1 mo) · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 19% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,746 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,304 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $98 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.23/sh now → $2.99 mid-life (likely $2.75–$4.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 303 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $92 (overshoots $2.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $58 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $90.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$34,595 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,665 (+$2,113 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,514, the opportunity cost of earning $3,690/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,422, position total $-39,047 (+$2,731 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $88.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.9% | 88% | 14% | $530 | $3,975 | — | $29,459 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $88.50 9.9% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.10 mid) = $530 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $89.61) 91% EV / mo +$3,047 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [3.3-6.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.9 mo) · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~9.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,060 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$942 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $103 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.16/sh now → $2.94 mid-life (likely $2.73–$5.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $91 (overshoots $2.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88.50 is $60 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $89.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $88.50): -$29,459 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$847 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,376 (+$6,402 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,225, the opportunity cost of earning $3,975/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,315, position total $-34,939 (+$6,839 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $85 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.6% | 76% | 49% | $1,170 | $8,775 | +$4,800 | $36,917 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $85 5.6% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.98 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $86.98) 84% EV / mo +$5,576 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.5 mo [3.2-6.3] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.0 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~19.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,071 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$526 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $104 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.00/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $3.16–$5.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,050 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $87 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $63 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot ≥ $86.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $85): -$36,917 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,987 ($-209 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,836, the opportunity cost of earning $8,775/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,744, position total $-41,369 (+$409 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $114 | 24 Jul | 11d | 41.6% | 99% | 3% | $100 | $273 | -$3,785 | $17,139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $114 41.6% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.23 mid) = $100 credit for the 11d cycle → $273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $114.23) 99% EV / mo +$235 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.5-6.0] median · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-326 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,703 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $114 @ 70% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.92/sh now → $5.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $34 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $114.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $114): -$17,139 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$847 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,056 (+$18,722 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,905, the opportunity cost of earning $273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,995, position total $-22,619 (+$19,159 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $98 | 24 Jul | 11d | 21.7% | 92% | 17% | $534 | $1,456 | -$2,602 | $29,753 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $98 21.7% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.33 mid) = $534 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,456/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $99.33) 93% EV / mo +$988 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [3.0-6.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.8 mo) · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,493 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,357 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 75% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.81/sh now → $4.82 mid-life (likely $3.91–$6.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 300 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $100 (overshoots $2.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $50 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $99.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $98): -$29,753 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,823 (+$6,955 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,672, the opportunity cost of earning $1,456/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,580, position total $-34,205 (+$7,573 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $91 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.0% | 82% | 37% | $990 | $2,700 | -$1,358 | $33,497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $91 13.0% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.93 mid) = $990 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $92.92) 86% EV / mo +$1,319 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.9-6.2] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,529 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,695 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 80% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.33/sh now → $4.47 mid-life (likely $4.36–$6.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 789 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $93 (overshoots $2.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $57 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $92.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $91): -$33,497 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,567 (+$3,211 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,416, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,324, position total $-37,949 (+$3,829 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $88 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.3% | 76% | 38% | $1,488 | $4,058 | — | $34,799 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $88 9.3% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.67 mid) = $1,488 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,058/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $90.67) 82% EV / mo +$1,885 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.8-6.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.4 mo) · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~9.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,307 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,108 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.12/sh now → $4.33 mid-life (likely $4.62–$6.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,145 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $90 (overshoots $2.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $60 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.48 collected) or spot ≥ $90.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $88): -$34,799 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,869 (+$1,909 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,718, the opportunity cost of earning $4,058/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,626, position total $-39,251 (+$2,527 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $81 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.6% | 55% | 96% | $3,000 | $8,182 | +$4,124 | $37,487 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $81 0.6% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.15 mid) = $3,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $86.15) 71% EV / mo +$2,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.9-6.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.5 mo) · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~32.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,287 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$610 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.63/sh now → $3.98 mid-life (likely $5.57–$7.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,390 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $83 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $67 below CC-SS $148.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $86.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,708 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $81): -$37,487 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,557 ($-779 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,151 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,406, the opportunity cost of earning $8,182/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,314, position total $-41,939 ($-161 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$36,708 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,151
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 5/6 | $3,975 | $3,713 | 88% | 91% | +$3,047 | -$29,459 | 184.9% | $-35,376 (vs do-nothing $-25,225) |
| $87.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 5/6 | $4,725 | $4,463 | 85% | 89% | +$3,455 | -$29,859 | 187.4% | $-35,776 (vs do-nothing $-25,625) |
| $86.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 4/6 | $4,410 | $4,150 | 82% | 87% | +$3,032 | -$24,203 | 151.9% | $-30,967 (vs do-nothing $-20,816) |
| $85 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 3/6 | $4,388 | $4,129 | 76% | 84% | +$2,788 | -$18,458 | 115.9% | $-26,069 (vs do-nothing $-15,918) |
| $88 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 6/6 | $4,058 | $3,795 | 76% | 82% | +$1,885 | -$34,799 | 218.4% | $-39,869 (vs do-nothing $-29,718) |
| $87 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 6/6 | $4,418 | $4,155 | 73% | 80% | +$1,899 | -$35,267 | 221.4% | $-40,337 (vs do-nothing $-30,186) |
| $86 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 5/6 | $4,023 | $3,761 | 71% | 80% | +$1,595 | -$29,764 | 186.8% | $-35,681 (vs do-nothing $-25,530) |
| $87 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 6/6 | $4,100 | $3,837 | 70% | 79% | +$1,448 | -$34,427 | 216.1% | $-39,497 (vs do-nothing $-29,346) |
| $83.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 3/6 | $5,220 | $4,962 | 69% | 80% | +$2,812 | -$18,797 | 118.0% | $-26,408 (vs do-nothing $-16,257) |
| $85 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/6 | $4,773 | $4,511 | 68% | 77% | +$1,972 | -$29,989 | 188.3% | $-35,906 (vs do-nothing $-25,755) |
| $86 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 6/6 | $4,400 | $4,137 | 67% | 77% | +$1,460 | -$34,847 | 218.7% | $-39,917 (vs do-nothing $-29,766) |
| $85 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 6/6 | $4,750 | $4,487 | 65% | 75% | +$1,495 | -$35,237 | 221.2% | $-40,307 (vs do-nothing $-30,156) |
| $84 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/6 | $4,909 | $4,647 | 65% | 76% | +$1,687 | -$30,439 | 191.1% | $-36,356 (vs do-nothing $-26,205) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 2/6 | $4,170 | $3,913 | 63% | 78% | +$2,097 | -$12,640 | 79.3% | $-21,097 (vs do-nothing $-10,946) |
| $84 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 6/6 | $4,750 | $4,487 | 63% | 75% | +$1,152 | -$35,837 | 225.0% | $-40,907 (vs do-nothing $-30,756) |
| $83 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 4/6 | $4,255 | $3,995 | 61% | 74% | +$1,298 | -$24,631 | 154.6% | $-31,395 (vs do-nothing $-21,244) |
| $83 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 5/6 | $4,583 | $4,322 | 60% | 73% | +$1,275 | -$29,989 | 188.3% | $-35,906 (vs do-nothing $-25,755) |
| $82 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/6 | $4,964 | $4,704 | 58% | 73% | +$1,584 | -$24,771 | 155.5% | $-31,535 (vs do-nothing $-21,384) |
| $81.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 2/6 | $4,725 | $4,468 | 58% | 75% | +$2,084 | -$12,766 | 80.1% | $-21,223 (vs do-nothing $-11,072) |
| $82 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 5/6 | $4,500 | $4,238 | 58% | 72% | +$856 | -$30,539 | 191.7% | $-36,456 (vs do-nothing $-26,305) |
| $81 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 4/6 | $4,267 | $4,007 | 55% | 71% | +$1,062 | -$24,431 | 153.4% | $-31,195 (vs do-nothing $-21,044) |
| $81 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/6 | $4,091 | $3,833 | 55% | 71% | +$1,205 | -$18,743 | 117.7% | $-26,354 (vs do-nothing $-16,203) |
| $80 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 4/6 | $4,600 | $4,340 | 52% | 70% | +$1,084 | -$24,631 | 154.6% | $-31,395 (vs do-nothing $-21,244) |
| $80 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/6 | $4,377 | $4,119 | 51% | 70% | +$1,103 | -$18,938 | 118.9% | $-26,549 (vs do-nothing $-16,398) |
| $79 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/6 | $4,800 | $4,540 | 50% | 70% | +$950 | -$24,911 | 156.4% | $-31,675 (vs do-nothing $-21,524) |
| $80 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/6 | $5,925 | $5,668 | 49% | 72% | +$2,232 | -$12,906 | 81.0% | $-21,363 (vs do-nothing $-11,212) |
| $79 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/6 | $4,827 | $4,569 | 47% | 68% | +$1,128 | -$19,073 | 119.7% | $-26,684 (vs do-nothing $-16,533) |
| $79 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/6 | $6,675 | $6,418 | 42% | 72% | +$2,142 | -$13,006 | 81.6% | $-21,463 (vs do-nothing $-11,312) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.