6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $147.92 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $7,126/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $309/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-43,287 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $85 | 83% | $3,675 | $1,455 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 6 × $85 | 73% | $3,747 | $880 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $100 | 17 Jul | 4d | 27.6% | 98% | 3% | $42 | $315 | -$3,360 | $28,708 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $100 27.6% OTM over spot $78.34 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.08 mid) = $42 credit for the 4d cycle → $315/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $100.08) 98% EV / mo +$226 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [2.0-5.2] median · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-596 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,772 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $109 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.02 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $48 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $100.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $100): -$28,708 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,874 (+$14,413 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,964, the opportunity cost of earning $315/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,752, position total $-29,071 (+$14,216 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $88.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.0% | 92% | 17% | $300 | $2,250 | -$1,425 | $35,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $88.50 13.0% OTM over spot $78.34 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.53 mid) = $300 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $89.03) 93% EV / mo +$1,546 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.6-5.8] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,752 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,306 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.78/sh now → $2.68 mid-life (likely $2.41–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $91 (overshoots $2.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88.50 is $59 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $89.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $88.50): -$35,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,516 (+$7,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,606, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,394, position total $-35,713 (+$7,574 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $87.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.7% | 90% | 21% | $342 | $2,565 | -$1,110 | $35,908 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $87.50 11.7% OTM over spot $78.34 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.63 mid) = $342 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $88.13) 91% EV / mo +$1,584 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.8-6.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.6 mo) · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,823 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,245 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $99 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 412 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87.50 is $60 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $88.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $87.50): -$35,908 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,074 (+$7,213 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,164, the opportunity cost of earning $2,565/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,952, position total $-36,271 (+$7,016 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $85 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.5% | 83% | 23% | $490 | $3,675 | — | $30,969 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $85 8.5% OTM over spot $78.34 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.02 mid) = $490 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,675/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $86.02) 86% EV / mo +$1,912 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.8-6.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.4 mo) · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~13.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,077 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$795 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.63/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.70–$4.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 691 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $87 (overshoots $2.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $63 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $86.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$30,969 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$791 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,925 (+$11,362 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,015, the opportunity cost of earning $3,675/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,005, position total $-32,323 (+$10,964 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $81.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.0% | 68% | 65% | $1,122 | $8,415 | +$4,740 | $38,728 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $81.50 4.0% OTM over spot $78.34 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.90 mid) = $1,122 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,415/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81.50) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $83.40) 77% EV / mo +$3,029 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.7-6.3] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~28.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,481 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$357 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $101 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.48/sh now → $2.46 mid-life (likely $3.02–$4.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,378 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $84 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81.50 is $66 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.87 collected) or spot ≥ $83.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $81.50): -$38,728 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,894 (+$4,393 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,984, the opportunity cost of earning $8,415/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,772, position total $-39,091 (+$4,196 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $101 | 24 Jul | 11d | 28.9% | 96% | 8% | $128 | $349 | -$3,398 | $18,639 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $101 28.9% OTM over spot $78.34 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.35 mid) = $128 credit for the 11d cycle → $349/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $101.36) 96% EV / mo +$240 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.7-6.2] median · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-319 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,670 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $103 @ 70% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $3.27–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 170 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $104 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $47 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $101.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $101): -$18,639 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $140): -$1,581 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,386 (+$22,901 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,476, the opportunity cost of earning $349/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,668, position total $-20,985 (+$22,302 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $94 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.0% | 90% | 21% | $462 | $1,260 | -$2,487 | $31,888 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $94 20.0% OTM over spot $78.34 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.04 mid) = $462 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,260/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $95.03) 91% EV / mo +$636 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.6-6.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,423 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,048 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $99 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.91/sh now → $4.18 mid-life (likely $3.63–$6.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 413 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $96 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $54 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $95.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $94): -$31,888 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,054 (+$11,233 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,144, the opportunity cost of earning $1,260/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,932, position total $-32,251 (+$11,036 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $89 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.6% | 82% | 37% | $876 | $2,389 | -$1,358 | $34,474 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $89 13.6% OTM over spot $78.34 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.54 mid) = $876 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,389/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $90.53) 85% EV / mo +$925 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.5-6.4] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,771 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,500 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.60/sh now → $3.96 mid-life (likely $4.00–$6.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 926 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $91 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $59 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $90.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $89): -$34,474 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,640 (+$8,647 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,730, the opportunity cost of earning $2,389/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,518, position total $-34,837 (+$8,450 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $85 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.5% | 73% | 46% | $1,374 | $3,747 | — | $36,376 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $85 8.5% OTM over spot $78.34 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.36 mid) = $1,374 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,747/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $87.36) 79% EV / mo +$1,047 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.7-6.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~10.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,826 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$895 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.78 mid-life (likely $4.29–$6.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,390 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $87 (overshoots $2.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $63 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.29 collected) or spot ≥ $87.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $85): -$36,376 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,542 (+$6,745 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,632, the opportunity cost of earning $3,747/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,420, position total $-36,739 (+$6,548 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $78 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.4% | 52% | 99+% | $2,820 | $7,691 | +$3,944 | $39,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 0.4% ITM over spot $78.34 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.90 mid) = $2,820 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,691/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $82.90) 67% EV / mo +$880 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$737 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $95 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.91/sh now → $3.47 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $70 below CC-SS $147.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.18/sh (~25% of the $4.70 collected) or spot ≥ $82.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.91 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,287 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,121 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$39,130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,296 (+$3,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,910 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,386, the opportunity cost of earning $7,691/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,174, position total $-39,493 (+$3,794 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.033 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$43,121 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,910
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 5/6 | $3,675 | $3,368 | 83% | 86% | +$1,912 | -$30,969 | 194.4% | $-31,925 (vs do-nothing $-27,015) |
| $83.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 4/6 | $3,810 | $3,504 | 77% | 82% | +$1,662 | -$25,259 | 158.6% | $-27,006 (vs do-nothing $-22,096) |
| $85 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.29 | 6/6 | $3,747 | $3,438 | 73% | 79% | +$1,047 | -$36,376 | 228.4% | $-36,542 (vs do-nothing $-31,632) |
| $82.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.54 | 4/6 | $4,620 | $4,314 | 73% | 80% | +$1,824 | -$25,551 | 160.4% | $-27,298 (vs do-nothing $-22,388) |
| $84 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 6/6 | $4,189 | $3,880 | 70% | 77% | +$1,061 | -$36,814 | 231.1% | $-36,980 (vs do-nothing $-32,070) |
| $81.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.87 | 3/6 | $4,208 | $3,904 | 68% | 77% | +$1,515 | -$19,364 | 121.6% | $-21,902 (vs do-nothing $-16,992) |
| $83 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 5/6 | $3,900 | $3,593 | 68% | 76% | +$902 | -$31,029 | 194.8% | $-31,985 (vs do-nothing $-27,075) |
| $84 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 6/6 | $3,700 | $3,391 | 68% | 76% | +$762 | -$36,130 | 226.8% | $-36,296 (vs do-nothing $-31,386) |
| $83 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 6/6 | $4,000 | $3,691 | 65% | 74% | +$743 | -$36,550 | 229.4% | $-36,716 (vs do-nothing $-31,806) |
| $82 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 5/6 | $4,159 | $3,852 | 65% | 74% | +$725 | -$31,434 | 197.3% | $-32,390 (vs do-nothing $-27,480) |
| $82 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 5/6 | $3,708 | $3,401 | 63% | 73% | +$706 | -$30,734 | 192.9% | $-31,690 (vs do-nothing $-26,780) |
| $81 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/6 | $3,818 | $3,513 | 62% | 72% | +$684 | -$25,367 | 159.2% | $-27,114 (vs do-nothing $-22,204) |
| $80 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 2/6 | $3,585 | $3,283 | 61% | 73% | +$1,038 | -$13,105 | 82.3% | $-16,434 (vs do-nothing $-11,524) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 5/6 | $3,792 | $3,484 | 61% | 72% | +$478 | -$31,184 | 195.8% | $-32,140 (vs do-nothing $-27,230) |
| $80 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/6 | $4,145 | $3,840 | 58% | 70% | +$584 | -$25,647 | 161.0% | $-27,394 (vs do-nothing $-22,484) |
| $80 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 5/6 | $4,333 | $4,026 | 58% | 71% | +$685 | -$31,359 | 196.9% | $-32,315 (vs do-nothing $-27,405) |
| $79 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 4/6 | $3,767 | $3,461 | 56% | 70% | +$560 | -$25,307 | 158.9% | $-27,054 (vs do-nothing $-22,144) |
| $79 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 2/6 | $4,185 | $3,883 | 55% | 70% | +$1,024 | -$13,225 | 83.0% | $-16,554 (vs do-nothing $-11,644) |
| $79 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 4/6 | $4,636 | $4,331 | 55% | 69% | +$607 | -$25,867 | 162.4% | $-27,614 (vs do-nothing $-22,704) |
| $78 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 4/6 | $4,000 | $3,694 | 53% | 68% | +$485 | -$25,567 | 160.5% | $-27,314 (vs do-nothing $-22,404) |
| $78 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/6 | $3,845 | $3,541 | 52% | 67% | +$440 | -$19,565 | 122.8% | $-22,103 (vs do-nothing $-17,193) |
| $77 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 4/6 | $4,300 | $3,994 | 50% | 67% | +$456 | -$25,787 | 161.9% | $-27,534 (vs do-nothing $-22,624) |
| $78 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 2/6 | $4,650 | $4,348 | 50% | 68% | +$777 | -$13,363 | 83.9% | $-16,692 (vs do-nothing $-11,782) |
| $77 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/6 | $4,214 | $3,910 | 48% | 66% | +$392 | -$19,730 | 123.9% | $-22,268 (vs do-nothing $-17,358) |
| $77 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/6 | $5,400 | $5,098 | 44% | 65% | +$716 | -$13,463 | 84.5% | $-16,792 (vs do-nothing $-11,882) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.