6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $6,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $332/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-43,137 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 6 × $88.50 | 89% | $3,780 | $1,514 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 6 × $89 | 78% | $3,400 | $794 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $97 | 17 Jul | 2d | 20.5% | 99% | 3% | $25 | $375 | -$3,405 | $26,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $97 20.5% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.31 mid) = $25 credit for the 2d cycle → $375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $97) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $97.31) 99% EV / mo +$288 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.4-5.5] median · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-390 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,211 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $108 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.50/sh now → $2.47 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $97 is $53 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $97.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$26,383 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$981 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,500 (+$15,637 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,480, the opportunity cost of earning $375/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,470, position total $-27,942 (+$15,195 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $90 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.8% | 93% | 15% | $155 | $2,325 | -$1,455 | $29,753 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $90 11.8% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid) = $155 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,325/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $90.34) 93% EV / mo +$1,459 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [2.0-5.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,858 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$992 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.24/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $2.33–$4.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 244 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $93 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $60 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $90.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$29,753 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$981 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,870 (+$12,267 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,850, the opportunity cost of earning $2,325/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,840, position total $-31,312 (+$11,825 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $90 | 17 Jul | 2d | 11.8% | 93% | 15% | $186 | $2,790 | -$990 | $35,704 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 11.8% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid) = $186 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,790/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $90.34) 93% EV / mo +$1,751 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.7-4.6] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~9.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,936 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,190 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.24/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $2.41–$4.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 207 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $92 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $60 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $90.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$35,704 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,840 (+$7,297 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,820, the opportunity cost of earning $2,790/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,608, position total $-36,081 (+$7,056 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $88.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 9.9% | 89% | 11% | $252 | $3,780 | — | $36,538 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $88.50 9.9% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.47 mid) = $252 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,780/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $88.97) 91% EV / mo +$2,049 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.9-5.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~13.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,413 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,101 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.19/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.46–$4.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 335 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $91 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88.50 is $61 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $88.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $88.50): -$36,538 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,674 (+$6,463 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,654, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,442, position total $-36,915 (+$6,222 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $85 | 17 Jul | 2d | 5.6% | 77% | 46% | $520 | $7,800 | +$4,020 | $31,888 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $85 5.6% OTM over spot $80.50 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.09 mid) = $520 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $86.09) 82% EV / mo +$3,282 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [1.9-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~28.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,895 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$563 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $101 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.06/sh now → $2.17 mid-life (likely $2.52–$4.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 833 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $88 (overshoots $2.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $65 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.04 collected) or spot ≥ $86.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$31,888 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$981 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,005 (+$10,132 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,985, the opportunity cost of earning $7,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,975, position total $-33,447 (+$9,690 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $101 | 24 Jul | 9d | 25.5% | 95% | 11% | $112 | $373 | -$3,027 | $19,415 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $101 25.5% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.39 mid) = $112 credit for the 9d cycle → $373/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $101.39) 95% EV / mo +$163 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.1-5.9] median · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-427 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,609 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $104 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.08/sh now → $4.30 mid-life (likely $2.99–$5.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 205 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $104 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $49 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $101.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $101): -$19,415 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $140): -$1,961 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,512 (+$21,625 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,492, the opportunity cost of earning $373/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,684, position total $-22,155 (+$20,982 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $96 | 24 Jul | 9d | 19.2% | 90% | 20% | $366 | $1,220 | -$2,180 | $31,924 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $96 19.2% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.71 mid) = $366 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $96.72) 91% EV / mo +$493 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.5-6.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,930 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,088 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $99 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.78/sh now → $4.09 mid-life (likely $3.55–$5.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 415 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $99 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $54 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $96.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $96): -$31,924 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,060 (+$11,077 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,040, the opportunity cost of earning $1,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,828, position total $-32,301 (+$10,836 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $92 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.3% | 84% | 32% | $678 | $2,260 | -$1,140 | $34,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $92 14.3% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.21 mid) = $678 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,260/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $93.22) 86% EV / mo +$850 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.0-6.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,099 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,673 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.54/sh now → $3.92 mid-life (likely $3.78–$5.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 703 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $94 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $58 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.13 collected) or spot ≥ $93.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $92): -$34,012 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,148 (+$8,989 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,128, the opportunity cost of earning $2,260/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,916, position total $-34,389 (+$8,748 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $89 | 24 Jul | 9d | 10.6% | 78% | 34% | $1,020 | $3,400 | — | $35,470 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $89 10.6% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.81 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $90.81) 82% EV / mo +$1,120 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.3-5.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~9.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,062 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,255 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.36/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $4.10–$6.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,031 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $91 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $61 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $90.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $89): -$35,470 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,606 (+$7,531 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,586, the opportunity cost of earning $3,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,374, position total $-35,847 (+$7,290 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $82 | 24 Jul | 9d | 1.9% | 58% | 89% | $2,340 | $7,800 | +$4,400 | $38,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $82 1.9% OTM over spot $80.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.15 mid) = $2,340 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $86.15) 71% EV / mo +$1,500 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.5-6.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~28.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,856 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 72% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$244 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.94/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $4.75–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,151 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $85 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $68 below CC-SS $149.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $86.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-43,137 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,001 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $82): -$38,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,486 (+$4,651 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,020 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,466, the opportunity cost of earning $7,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.99 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,254, position total $-38,727 (+$4,410 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$43,001 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,020
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 6/6 | $3,780 | $3,448 | 89% | 91% | +$2,049 | -$36,538 | 229.4% | $-36,674 (vs do-nothing $-30,654) |
| $87.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 5/6 | $3,975 | $3,645 | 87% | 89% | +$1,956 | -$30,893 | 193.9% | $-32,010 (vs do-nothing $-25,990) |
| $86.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 4/6 | $4,260 | $3,931 | 83% | 86% | +$2,014 | -$25,043 | 157.2% | $-27,140 (vs do-nothing $-21,120) |
| $89 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 6/6 | $3,400 | $3,068 | 78% | 82% | +$1,120 | -$35,470 | 222.7% | $-35,606 (vs do-nothing $-29,586) |
| $85 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 3/6 | $4,680 | $4,353 | 77% | 82% | +$1,969 | -$19,133 | 120.1% | $-22,211 (vs do-nothing $-16,191) |
| $88 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 6/6 | $3,900 | $3,568 | 76% | 81% | +$1,237 | -$35,920 | 225.5% | $-36,056 (vs do-nothing $-30,036) |
| $87 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 5/6 | $3,667 | $3,336 | 73% | 79% | +$1,082 | -$30,308 | 190.3% | $-31,425 (vs do-nothing $-25,405) |
| $88 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 6/6 | $3,375 | $3,043 | 72% | 78% | +$672 | -$35,290 | 221.5% | $-35,426 (vs do-nothing $-29,406) |
| $86 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.49 | 5/6 | $4,150 | $3,820 | 71% | 77% | +$1,150 | -$30,663 | 192.5% | $-31,780 (vs do-nothing $-25,760) |
| $83.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.44 | 2/6 | $4,320 | $3,995 | 70% | 78% | +$1,491 | -$12,975 | 81.5% | $-17,034 (vs do-nothing $-11,014) |
| $87 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 6/6 | $3,544 | $3,211 | 69% | 77% | +$538 | -$35,800 | 224.7% | $-35,936 (vs do-nothing $-29,916) |
| $85 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 4/6 | $3,747 | $3,418 | 68% | 76% | +$970 | -$24,803 | 155.7% | $-26,900 (vs do-nothing $-20,880) |
| $86 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 6/6 | $3,938 | $3,605 | 67% | 76% | +$600 | -$36,190 | 227.2% | $-36,326 (vs do-nothing $-30,306) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 5/6 | $3,609 | $3,279 | 65% | 74% | +$527 | -$30,483 | 191.4% | $-31,600 (vs do-nothing $-25,580) |
| $84 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 4/6 | $4,067 | $3,738 | 65% | 74% | +$866 | -$25,107 | 157.6% | $-27,204 (vs do-nothing $-21,184) |
| $82.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 2/6 | $5,340 | $5,015 | 64% | 74% | +$1,596 | -$13,107 | 82.3% | $-17,166 (vs do-nothing $-11,146) |
| $84 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 4/6 | $3,375 | $3,046 | 63% | 73% | +$647 | -$24,527 | 154.0% | $-26,624 (vs do-nothing $-20,604) |
| $83 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 4/6 | $4,467 | $4,138 | 61% | 73% | +$793 | -$25,387 | 159.4% | $-27,484 (vs do-nothing $-21,464) |
| $83 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 4/6 | $3,450 | $3,121 | 60% | 72% | +$438 | -$24,887 | 156.2% | $-26,984 (vs do-nothing $-20,964) |
| $82 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 3/6 | $3,900 | $3,573 | 58% | 71% | +$750 | -$19,175 | 120.4% | $-22,253 (vs do-nothing $-16,233) |
| $81.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 2/6 | $6,600 | $6,275 | 58% | 71% | +$1,722 | -$13,223 | 83.0% | $-17,282 (vs do-nothing $-11,262) |
| $82 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.05 | 4/6 | $3,788 | $3,459 | 58% | 71% | +$468 | -$25,107 | 157.6% | $-27,204 (vs do-nothing $-21,184) |
| $81 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/6 | $3,375 | $3,048 | 55% | 70% | +$638 | -$18,845 | 118.3% | $-21,923 (vs do-nothing $-15,903) |
| $81 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 3/6 | $4,200 | $3,873 | 55% | 69% | +$614 | -$19,385 | 121.7% | $-22,463 (vs do-nothing $-16,443) |
| $80 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 3/6 | $3,488 | $3,161 | 52% | 68% | +$485 | -$19,085 | 119.8% | $-22,163 (vs do-nothing $-16,143) |
| $80 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/6 | $4,700 | $4,373 | 51% | 68% | +$636 | -$19,535 | 122.6% | $-22,613 (vs do-nothing $-16,593) |
| $79 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 3/6 | $3,628 | $3,301 | 50% | 67% | +$341 | -$19,310 | 121.2% | $-22,388 (vs do-nothing $-16,368) |
| $80 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 1/6 | $4,320 | $3,997 | 48% | 67% | +$809 | -$6,694 | 42.0% | $-11,733 (vs do-nothing $-5,713) |
| $79 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 2/6 | $3,567 | $3,242 | 47% | 66% | +$510 | -$13,093 | 82.2% | $-17,152 (vs do-nothing $-11,132) |
| $79 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 1/6 | $5,175 | $4,852 | 42% | 65% | +$797 | -$6,737 | 42.3% | $-11,776 (vs do-nothing $-5,756) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.