6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $147.06 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $6,108/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $366/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-44,568 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $83 | 78% | $3,281 | $754 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $96 | 24 Jul | 8d | 28.0% | 96% | 7% | $110 | $412 | -$2,869 | $25,419 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 28.0% OTM over spot $75.01 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.31 mid) = $110 credit for the 8d cycle → $412/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $96.31) 97% EV / mo +$269 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.5 mo [3.2-6.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 21% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-358 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,173 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $103 @ 77% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.46/sh now → $4.57 mid-life (likely $3.51–$6.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 157 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $99 (overshoots $2.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $51 below CC-SS $147.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $96.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,568 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,906 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$25,419 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$705 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,786 (+$12,782 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,895, the opportunity cost of earning $412/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,890, position total $-31,442 (+$13,126 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $90 | 24 Jul | 8d | 20.0% | 91% | 18% | $384 | $1,440 | -$1,841 | $33,851 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 20.0% OTM over spot $75.01 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.67 mid) = $384 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $90.67) 92% EV / mo +$804 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.2-6.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.8 mo) · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,959 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,185 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $101 @ 81% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.05/sh now → $4.28 mid-life (likely $3.87–$6.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 356 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $93 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $57 below CC-SS $147.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $90.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,568 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,906 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$33,851 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,513 (+$5,055 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,622, the opportunity cost of earning $1,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,416, position total $-38,969 (+$5,599 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $87 | 24 Jul | 8d | 16.0% | 87% | 27% | $600 | $2,250 | -$1,031 | $35,435 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $87 16.0% OTM over spot $75.01 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.08 mid) = $600 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $88.08) 89% EV / mo +$1,096 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.8-5.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.5 mo) · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,714 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,883 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $98 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.85/sh now → $4.14 mid-life (likely $3.97–$6.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 613 simulated challenges: the $87 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $90 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87 is $60 below CC-SS $147.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $88.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $87)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,568 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,906 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $87): -$35,435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,097 (+$3,471 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,206, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,000, position total $-40,553 (+$4,015 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $83 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.7% | 78% | 34% | $875 | $3,281 | — | $31,154 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $83 10.7% OTM over spot $75.01 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.82 mid) = $875 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,281/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $84.83) 83% EV / mo +$1,285 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.3 mo [3.4-7.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.5 mo) · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,794 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,099 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $98 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.58/sh now → $3.95 mid-life (likely $4.31–$6.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,024 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $85 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $64 below CC-SS $147.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $84.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,568 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,906 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $83): -$31,154 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$705 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,521 (+$7,047 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,630, the opportunity cost of earning $3,281/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,625, position total $-37,177 (+$7,391 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $79 | 24 Jul | 8d | 5.3% | 67% | 70% | $1,764 | $6,615 | +$3,334 | $39,071 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 5.3% OTM over spot $75.01 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $3.02 mid) = $1,764 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,615/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $82.02) 76% EV / mo +$2,019 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [2.7-6.6] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 19% without) · ~19.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,536 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$491 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $94 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.31/sh now → $3.76 mid-life (likely $4.63–$6.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,655 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $81 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $68 below CC-SS $147.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.94 collected) or spot ≥ $82.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $110.78 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,568 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,906 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$39,071 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,733 ($-165 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,891 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,842, the opportunity cost of earning $6,615/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.00 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,636, position total $-44,189 (+$379 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$38,906 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,891
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 5/6 | $3,281 | $2,918 | 78% | 83% | +$1,285 | -$31,154 | 195.6% | $-37,521 (vs do-nothing $-27,630) |
| $84 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 6/6 | $3,120 | $2,754 | 76% | 82% | +$1,158 | -$36,275 | 227.7% | $-41,937 (vs do-nothing $-32,046) |
| $82 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.97 | 5/6 | $3,694 | $3,330 | 76% | 81% | +$1,327 | -$31,544 | 198.0% | $-37,911 (vs do-nothing $-28,020) |
| $86 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 6/6 | $3,109 | $2,743 | 76% | 82% | +$1,186 | -$34,355 | 215.7% | $-40,017 (vs do-nothing $-30,126) |
| $83 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 6/6 | $3,600 | $3,234 | 74% | 80% | +$1,380 | -$36,635 | 230.0% | $-42,297 (vs do-nothing $-32,406) |
| $85 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 6/6 | $3,191 | $2,825 | 74% | 80% | +$1,083 | -$34,895 | 219.1% | $-40,557 (vs do-nothing $-30,666) |
| $81 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 4/6 | $3,420 | $3,058 | 73% | 79% | +$1,186 | -$25,511 | 160.1% | $-32,583 (vs do-nothing $-22,692) |
| $84 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 6/6 | $3,477 | $3,112 | 73% | 80% | +$1,170 | -$35,285 | 221.5% | $-40,947 (vs do-nothing $-31,056) |
| $82 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 5/6 | $3,300 | $2,936 | 72% | 79% | +$1,211 | -$30,879 | 193.8% | $-37,246 (vs do-nothing $-27,355) |
| $83 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 6/6 | $3,273 | $2,907 | 71% | 78% | +$751 | -$36,035 | 226.2% | $-41,697 (vs do-nothing $-31,806) |
| $80 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 4/6 | $3,900 | $3,538 | 70% | 78% | +$1,277 | -$25,783 | 161.9% | $-32,855 (vs do-nothing $-22,964) |
| $81 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 5/6 | $3,750 | $3,386 | 70% | 78% | +$1,396 | -$31,154 | 195.6% | $-37,521 (vs do-nothing $-27,630) |
| $82 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 5/6 | $3,375 | $3,011 | 69% | 79% | +$1,081 | -$30,054 | 188.7% | $-36,421 (vs do-nothing $-26,530) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 6/6 | $3,273 | $2,907 | 67% | 76% | +$272 | -$37,235 | 233.7% | $-42,897 (vs do-nothing $-33,006) |
| $79 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 3/6 | $3,308 | $2,948 | 67% | 76% | +$1,009 | -$19,535 | 122.6% | $-27,312 (vs do-nothing $-17,421) |
| $80 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 4/6 | $3,240 | $2,878 | 67% | 76% | +$852 | -$25,203 | 158.2% | $-32,275 (vs do-nothing $-22,384) |
| $80 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 5/6 | $3,682 | $3,318 | 65% | 75% | +$960 | -$30,829 | 193.5% | $-37,196 (vs do-nothing $-27,305) |
| $79 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 4/6 | $3,480 | $3,118 | 64% | 74% | +$826 | -$25,483 | 160.0% | $-32,555 (vs do-nothing $-22,664) |
| $78 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 3/6 | $3,712 | $3,353 | 64% | 74% | +$1,042 | -$19,727 | 123.8% | $-27,504 (vs do-nothing $-17,613) |
| $79 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.45 | 6/6 | $3,641 | $3,275 | 63% | 75% | +$89 | -$38,165 | 239.6% | $-43,827 (vs do-nothing $-33,936) |
| $78 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 4/6 | $3,720 | $3,358 | 62% | 73% | +$778 | -$25,763 | 161.7% | $-32,835 (vs do-nothing $-22,944) |
| $78 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.30 | 5/6 | $3,614 | $3,250 | 61% | 74% | +$401 | -$31,879 | 200.1% | $-38,246 (vs do-nothing $-28,355) |
| $77 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/6 | $4,162 | $3,803 | 60% | 73% | +$1,076 | -$19,907 | 125.0% | $-27,684 (vs do-nothing $-17,793) |
| $77 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 3/6 | $3,090 | $2,730 | 59% | 72% | +$650 | -$19,472 | 122.2% | $-27,249 (vs do-nothing $-17,358) |
| $77 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.65 | 4/6 | $3,627 | $3,266 | 59% | 73% | +$841 | -$25,363 | 159.2% | $-32,435 (vs do-nothing $-22,544) |
| $76 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.15 | 4/6 | $3,900 | $3,538 | 57% | 72% | +$883 | -$25,563 | 160.5% | $-32,635 (vs do-nothing $-22,744) |
| $76 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/6 | $3,150 | $2,792 | 56% | 71% | +$783 | -$13,372 | 83.9% | $-21,853 (vs do-nothing $-11,962) |
| $76 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/6 | $3,240 | $2,880 | 56% | 71% | +$761 | -$19,697 | 123.7% | $-27,474 (vs do-nothing $-17,583) |
| $75 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.45 | 4/6 | $3,518 | $3,157 | 55% | 71% | +$256 | -$26,243 | 164.7% | $-33,315 (vs do-nothing $-23,424) |
| $75 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/6 | $3,060 | $2,700 | 54% | 70% | +$308 | -$20,087 | 126.1% | $-27,864 (vs do-nothing $-17,973) |
| $75 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 2/6 | $3,375 | $3,017 | 53% | 69% | +$667 | -$13,512 | 84.8% | $-21,993 (vs do-nothing $-12,102) |
| $74 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.05 | 4/6 | $3,845 | $3,484 | 52% | 69% | +$324 | -$26,403 | 165.7% | $-33,475 (vs do-nothing $-23,584) |
| $74 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/6 | $3,810 | $3,450 | 51% | 69% | +$763 | -$20,012 | 125.6% | $-27,789 (vs do-nothing $-17,898) |
| $74 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 2/6 | $3,862 | $3,505 | 49% | 68% | +$781 | -$13,582 | 85.3% | $-22,063 (vs do-nothing $-12,172) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.