6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.79 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $5,721/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $614/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,430 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 6 × $75 | 82% | $2,906 | $793 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $83 | 24 Jul | 7d | 23.7% | 95% | 11% | +2pp | $155 | $664 | -$2,241 | $32,741 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $83 23.7% OTM over spot $67.09 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.34 mid) = $155 credit for the 7d cycle → $664/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $83.34) 95% EV / mo +$415 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-138/mo median; plan ~$-94/mo after 68% keep · $-1,058 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [3.1-6.5], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,552 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $97 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $2.68–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 175 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $85 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $66 below CC-SS $148.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $83.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $109.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,285 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $83): -$32,741 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$877 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,762 (+$14,668 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,407 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,355, the opportunity cost of earning $664/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,545, position total $-40,197 (+$10,233 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $79 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.8% | 90% | 20% | +4pp | $330 | $1,414 | -$1,491 | $41,545 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 17.8% OTM over spot $67.09 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $330 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,414/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $79.62) 91% EV / mo +$719 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $251/mo median; plan ~$171/mo after 68% keep · $1,828 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [2.7-6.9], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,620 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $94 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $2.81–$4.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 383 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $81 (overshoots $2.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $70 below CC-SS $148.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $79.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $109.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,285 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$41,545 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,689 (+$6,741 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,407 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,282, the opportunity cost of earning $1,414/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,510, position total $-43,164 (+$7,266 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $77 | 24 Jul | 7d | 14.8% | 87% | 27% | +5pp | $486 | $2,083 | -$823 | $42,589 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $77 14.8% OTM over spot $67.09 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.88 mid) = $486 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,083/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $77.88) 89% EV / mo +$1,014 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $550/mo median; plan ~$374/mo after 68% keep · $4,317 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [3.0-6.2], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,414 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $94 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.48/sh now → $3.17 mid-life (likely $2.99–$4.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 585 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $79 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $72 below CC-SS $148.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $77.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $109.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,285 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $77): -$42,589 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,733 (+$5,697 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,407 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,326, the opportunity cost of earning $2,083/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,554, position total $-44,208 (+$6,222 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $75 | 24 Jul | 7d | 11.8% | 82% | 27% | +5pp | $678 | $2,906 | — | $43,597 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 11.8% OTM over spot $67.09 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.19 mid) = $678 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,906/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $76.19) 85% EV / mo +$1,269 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $808/mo median; plan ~$549/mo after 68% keep · $6,754 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.2-6.7], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,173 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $94 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.08 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 799 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $77 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $148.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.13 collected) or spot ≥ $76.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $109.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,285 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$43,597 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,741 (+$4,689 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,407 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,334, the opportunity cost of earning $2,906/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,562, position total $-45,216 (+$5,214 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $70 | 24 Jul | 7d | 4.3% | 65% | 72% | +6pp | $1,446 | $6,197 | +$3,291 | $45,829 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $70 4.3% OTM over spot $67.09 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.49 mid) = $1,446 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,197/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $72.48) 75% EV / mo +$1,719 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,464/mo median; plan ~$995/mo after 68% keep · $11,862 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.1-6.4], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$282 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $91 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.07/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $3.63–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,684 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $72 (overshoots $2.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $148.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.41 collected) or spot ≥ $72.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $109.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,430 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,285 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $70): -$45,829 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,973 (+$2,457 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,407 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,566, the opportunity cost of earning $6,197/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,794, position total $-47,448 (+$2,982 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.985 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$48,285 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,407
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 6/6 | $2,906 | $2,291 | 82% | 85% | +$1,269 | -$43,597 | 273.7% | $-45,741 (vs do-nothing $-38,334) |
| $74 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 6/6 | $3,266 | $2,651 | 80% | 83% | +$1,247 | -$44,113 | 276.9% | $-46,257 (vs do-nothing $-38,850) |
| $73 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.54 | 5/6 | $3,300 | $2,690 | 76% | 81% | +$1,232 | -$37,126 | 233.1% | $-40,147 (vs do-nothing $-32,740) |
| $74 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 6/6 | $3,189 | $2,574 | 74% | 79% | +$964 | -$43,387 | 272.4% | $-45,531 (vs do-nothing $-38,124) |
| $72 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 4/6 | $3,000 | $2,394 | 73% | 79% | +$975 | -$30,016 | 188.4% | $-33,915 (vs do-nothing $-26,508) |
| $75 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 6/6 | $3,000 | $2,386 | 72% | 79% | +$732 | -$42,175 | 264.7% | $-44,319 (vs do-nothing $-36,912) |
| $73 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 5/6 | $2,946 | $2,336 | 71% | 78% | +$822 | -$36,521 | 229.3% | $-39,542 (vs do-nothing $-32,135) |
| $75 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.45 | 6/6 | $2,861 | $2,246 | 70% | 78% | +$623 | -$41,605 | 261.2% | $-43,749 (vs do-nothing $-36,342) |
| $74 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 6/6 | $3,214 | $2,600 | 70% | 77% | +$716 | -$42,625 | 267.6% | $-44,769 (vs do-nothing $-37,362) |
| $71 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.06 | 4/6 | $3,531 | $2,926 | 69% | 77% | +$1,065 | -$30,292 | 190.2% | $-34,191 (vs do-nothing $-26,784) |
| $74 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 6/6 | $2,957 | $2,343 | 69% | 77% | +$532 | -$42,115 | 264.4% | $-44,259 (vs do-nothing $-36,852) |
| $72 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 5/6 | $3,129 | $2,519 | 68% | 76% | +$703 | -$36,936 | 231.9% | $-39,957 (vs do-nothing $-32,550) |
| $73 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 6/6 | $3,246 | $2,632 | 67% | 76% | +$620 | -$42,445 | 266.4% | $-44,589 (vs do-nothing $-37,182) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $72 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 6/6 | $3,171 | $2,557 | 66% | 75% | +$154 | -$43,855 | 275.3% | $-45,999 (vs do-nothing $-38,592) |
| $71 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 5/6 | $3,429 | $2,819 | 66% | 75% | +$668 | -$37,296 | 234.1% | $-40,317 (vs do-nothing $-32,910) |
| $70 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 3/6 | $3,099 | $2,497 | 65% | 75% | +$859 | -$22,914 | 143.8% | $-27,690 (vs do-nothing $-20,283) |
| $72 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.30 | 6/6 | $3,407 | $2,793 | 65% | 75% | +$567 | -$42,895 | 269.3% | $-45,039 (vs do-nothing $-37,632) |
| $71 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 5/6 | $3,429 | $2,819 | 64% | 74% | +$671 | -$36,496 | 229.1% | $-39,517 (vs do-nothing $-32,110) |
| $71 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 5/6 | $3,027 | $2,417 | 63% | 74% | +$470 | -$36,071 | 226.4% | $-39,092 (vs do-nothing $-31,685) |
| $70 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 4/6 | $3,214 | $2,609 | 63% | 73% | +$710 | -$30,016 | 188.4% | $-33,915 (vs do-nothing $-26,508) |
| $70 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 4/6 | $2,971 | $2,366 | 62% | 73% | +$555 | -$29,436 | 184.8% | $-33,335 (vs do-nothing $-25,928) |
| $70 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.20 | 5/6 | $3,321 | $2,711 | 61% | 73% | +$563 | -$36,296 | 227.8% | $-39,317 (vs do-nothing $-31,910) |
| $69 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.75 | 3/6 | $3,536 | $2,934 | 61% | 73% | +$843 | -$23,112 | 145.1% | $-27,888 (vs do-nothing $-20,481) |
| $69 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 4/6 | $3,343 | $2,737 | 60% | 72% | +$513 | -$30,356 | 190.6% | $-34,255 (vs do-nothing $-26,848) |
| $68 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/6 | $4,050 | $3,449 | 57% | 70% | +$834 | -$23,292 | 146.2% | $-28,068 (vs do-nothing $-20,661) |
| $68 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/6 | $2,861 | $2,259 | 57% | 70% | +$471 | -$22,902 | 143.8% | $-27,678 (vs do-nothing $-20,271) |
| $67 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/6 | $3,086 | $2,489 | 52% | 68% | +$545 | -$15,638 | 98.2% | $-21,291 (vs do-nothing $-13,884) |
| $66 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/6 | $3,600 | $3,003 | 48% | 66% | +$613 | -$15,718 | 98.7% | $-21,371 (vs do-nothing $-13,964) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.