6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.28 (banked floor $147.90) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $6,862/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $734/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-53,283 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $72C 31 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $0.75 | $451 | 2026-07-28 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $70 | 89% | $3,600 | $2,984 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 6 × $70 | 76% | $3,660 | $425 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $75 | 31 Jul | 2d | 19.1% | 97%hist 100% | 6%hist 1% | +3pp | $56 | $840 | -$2,760 | $29,657 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $75 19.1% OTM over spot $62.97 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.16 mid) = $56 credit for the 2d cycle → $840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $75.16) 97% EV / mo +$653 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-99/mo median; plan ~$-67/mo after 68% keep · $-889 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.1-5.8], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$934 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $91 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.50/sh now → $2.48 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 72 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $77 (overshoots $2.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $75.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $75): -$29,657 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $118): -$6,252 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,802 (+$14,481 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,152, the opportunity cost of earning $840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,884, position total $-43,470 (+$9,813 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $72 | 31 Jul | 2d | 14.3% | 93%hist 100% | 14%hist 5% | +7pp | $162 | $2,430 | -$1,170 | $46,207 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $72 14.3% OTM over spot $62.97 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid) = $162 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $72.33) 94% EV / mo +$1,557 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $895/mo median; plan ~$608/mo after 68% keep · $6,122 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.4-6.3], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,264 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $88 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.36/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $2.52–$5.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 203 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $75 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $77 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $72.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $72): -$46,207 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,100 (+$4,183 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,450, the opportunity cost of earning $2,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,548, position total $-48,138 (+$5,145 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $71 | 31 Jul | 2d | 12.8% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +9pp | $228 | $3,420 | -$180 | $46,741 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $71 12.8% OTM over spot $62.97 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $228 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $71) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $71.44) 92% EV / mo +$2,149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,514/mo median; plan ~$1,030/mo after 68% keep · $9,257 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.3-5.7], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,179 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $87 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.31/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $2.41–$4.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $71 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $73 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $71 is $78 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $71.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $71)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $71): -$46,741 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,634 (+$3,649 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,984, the opportunity cost of earning $3,420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,082, position total $-48,672 (+$4,611 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $70 | 31 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 89%hist 99% | 23%hist 13% | +8pp | $240 | $3,600 | — | $39,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $70 11.2% OTM over spot $62.97 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.53 mid) = $240 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $70.53) 90% EV / mo +$2,068 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 31% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,447/mo median; plan ~$984/mo after 68% keep · $10,174 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.2-5.9], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$916 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $86 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.27/sh now → $2.31 mid-life (likely $2.64–$4.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 375 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $72 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $70.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $70): -$39,401 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $118): -$3,126 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,420 (+$7,863 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,770, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,685, position total $-47,273 (+$6,010 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $68 | 31 Jul | 2d | 8.0% | 82%hist 99% | 38%hist 18% | +14pp | $504 | $7,560 | +$3,960 | $48,265 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $68 8.0% OTM over spot $62.97 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.90 mid) = $504 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $68) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $68.90) 85% EV / mo +$3,814 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,817/mo median; plan ~$1,915/mo after 68% keep · $19,658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.4-5.4], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$843 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $90 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.55–$4.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $70 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $68 is $81 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $68.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $68): -$48,265 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,158 (+$2,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,508, the opportunity cost of earning $7,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,606, position total $-50,196 (+$3,087 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $80 | 7 Aug | 9d | 27.0% | 94%hist 100% | 13%hist 5% | +2pp | $258 | $860 | -$2,800 | $41,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $80 27.0% OTM over spot $62.97 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $258 credit for the 9d cycle → $860/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $80.50) 94% EV / mo +$513 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-170/mo median; plan ~$-116/mo after 68% keep · $-1,452 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [2.7-6.2], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,421 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $88 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $3.82–$6.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $83 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $69 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $80.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $80): -$41,311 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,204 (+$9,079 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,554, the opportunity cost of earning $860/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,652, position total $-43,242 (+$10,041 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $77 | 7 Aug | 9d | 22.3% | 90%hist 100% | 21%hist 13% | +3pp | $408 | $1,360 | -$2,300 | $42,961 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $77 22.3% OTM over spot $62.97 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.75 mid) = $408 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $77.75) 91% EV / mo +$649 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $104/mo median; plan ~$70/mo after 68% keep · $757 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [3.2-6.3], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,171 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $86 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.07/sh now → $4.30 mid-life (likely $3.84–$6.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 462 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $80 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $72 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $77.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $77): -$42,961 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,854 (+$7,429 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,204, the opportunity cost of earning $1,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,302, position total $-44,892 (+$8,391 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $73 | 7 Aug | 9d | 15.9% | 83%hist 99% | 35%hist 18% | +3pp | $702 | $2,340 | -$1,320 | $45,067 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $73 15.9% OTM over spot $62.97 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.30 mid) = $702 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $73) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $74.30) 86% EV / mo +$838 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $378/mo median; plan ~$257/mo after 68% keep · $2,932 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.6-5.3], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,743 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $84 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.76/sh now → $4.07 mid-life (likely $4.03–$6.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 780 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $75 (overshoots $2.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $73 is $76 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $74.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $73)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $73): -$45,067 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,960 (+$5,323 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,310, the opportunity cost of earning $2,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,408, position total $-46,998 (+$6,285 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $70 | 7 Aug | 9d | 11.2% | 76%hist 96% | 50%hist 43% | +3pp | $1,098 | $3,660 | — | $46,471 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $70 11.2% OTM over spot $62.97 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.96 mid) = $1,098 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,660/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $71.95) 81% EV / mo +$1,144 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $670/mo median; plan ~$456/mo after 68% keep · $5,478 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.9-5.7], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,246 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $85 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.52/sh now → $3.91 mid-life (likely $4.34–$6.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,178 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $72 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.83 collected) or spot ≥ $71.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $70): -$46,471 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,364 (+$3,919 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,714, the opportunity cost of earning $3,660/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,812, position total $-48,402 (+$4,881 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $65 | 7 Aug | 9d | 3.2% | 61%hist 80% | 84%hist 80% | +5pp | $2,100 | $7,000 | +$3,340 | $48,469 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $65 3.2% OTM over spot $62.97 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $3.75 mid) = $2,100 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $68.75) 73% EV / mo +$1,575 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,246/mo median; plan ~$847/mo after 68% keep · $9,787 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.7-5.8], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$77 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $87 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $4.86–$6.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,023 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $67 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $65 is $84 below CC-SS $149.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $68.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $94.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,283 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,390 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $65): -$48,469 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,362 (+$1,921 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-21,650 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,712, the opportunity cost of earning $7,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,810, position total $-50,400 (+$2,883 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 51 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.973 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,390 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-21,650
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 5/6 | $3,600 | $2,870 | 89% | 90% | +$2,068 | -$39,401 | 247.3% | $-45,420 (vs do-nothing $-23,770) |
| $69 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 4/6 | $3,840 | $3,113 | 85% | 88% | +$2,081 | -$31,857 | 200.0% | $-41,002 (vs do-nothing $-19,352) |
| $68 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 3/6 | $3,780 | $3,057 | 82% | 85% | +$1,907 | -$24,133 | 151.5% | $-36,404 (vs do-nothing $-14,754) |
| $67 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 3/6 | $4,860 | $4,137 | 77% | 82% | +$2,235 | -$24,361 | 152.9% | $-36,632 (vs do-nothing $-14,982) |
| $70 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.83 | 6/6 | $3,660 | $2,926 | 76% | 81% | +$1,144 | -$46,471 | 291.7% | $-49,364 (vs do-nothing $-27,714) |
| $71 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 6/6 | $3,488 | $2,753 | 74% | 80% | +$981 | -$45,109 | 283.2% | $-48,002 (vs do-nothing $-26,352) |
| $69 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.12 | 5/6 | $3,533 | $2,803 | 74% | 79% | +$1,065 | -$39,081 | 245.3% | $-45,100 (vs do-nothing $-23,450) |
| $68.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 5/6 | $3,633 | $2,903 | 72% | 78% | +$960 | -$39,301 | 246.7% | $-45,320 (vs do-nothing $-23,670) |
| $66 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.39 | 2/6 | $4,170 | $3,451 | 72% | 79% | +$1,755 | -$16,378 | 102.8% | $-31,776 (vs do-nothing $-10,126) |
| $70 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 6/6 | $3,938 | $3,203 | 72% | 79% | +$1,146 | -$45,469 | 285.4% | $-48,362 (vs do-nothing $-26,712) |
| $68 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 5/6 | $4,083 | $3,353 | 71% | 78% | +$1,192 | -$39,416 | 247.4% | $-45,435 (vs do-nothing $-23,785) |
| $69 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 5/6 | $3,516 | $2,785 | 69% | 77% | +$929 | -$38,266 | 240.2% | $-44,285 (vs do-nothing $-22,635) |
| $67.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.55 | 5/6 | $4,250 | $3,520 | 69% | 77% | +$1,125 | -$39,616 | 248.7% | $-45,635 (vs do-nothing $-23,985) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $69 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 6/6 | $3,639 | $2,905 | 68% | 77% | +$976 | -$45,379 | 284.9% | $-48,272 (vs do-nothing $-26,622) |
| $68.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 5/6 | $3,609 | $2,879 | 68% | 77% | +$884 | -$38,466 | 241.5% | $-44,485 (vs do-nothing $-22,835) |
| $67 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.74 | 4/6 | $3,653 | $2,927 | 67% | 76% | +$955 | -$31,817 | 199.7% | $-40,962 (vs do-nothing $-19,312) |
| $68.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 6/6 | $3,717 | $2,983 | 67% | 76% | +$931 | -$45,619 | 286.4% | $-48,512 (vs do-nothing $-26,862) |
| $68 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.05 | 5/6 | $3,797 | $3,067 | 67% | 76% | +$926 | -$38,616 | 242.4% | $-44,635 (vs do-nothing $-22,985) |
| $68 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 6/6 | $3,913 | $3,179 | 66% | 76% | +$1,000 | -$45,769 | 287.3% | $-48,662 (vs do-nothing $-27,012) |
| $67.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 5/6 | $3,938 | $3,207 | 66% | 76% | +$915 | -$38,791 | 243.5% | $-44,810 (vs do-nothing $-23,160) |
| $66.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.90 | 4/6 | $3,867 | $3,140 | 66% | 75% | +$958 | -$31,953 | 200.6% | $-41,098 (vs do-nothing $-19,448) |
| $65 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 2/6 | $5,220 | $4,501 | 66% | 76% | +$1,945 | -$16,508 | 103.6% | $-31,906 (vs do-nothing $-10,256) |
| $67.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 6/6 | $4,030 | $3,296 | 65% | 75% | +$985 | -$45,979 | 288.6% | $-48,872 (vs do-nothing $-27,222) |
| $67 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 5/6 | $4,125 | $3,395 | 65% | 75% | +$944 | -$38,941 | 244.5% | $-44,960 (vs do-nothing $-23,310) |
| $67 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 5/6 | $3,489 | $2,759 | 64% | 75% | +$838 | -$38,466 | 241.5% | $-44,485 (vs do-nothing $-22,835) |
| $66 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 4/6 | $4,133 | $3,407 | 64% | 74% | +$1,002 | -$32,073 | 201.3% | $-41,218 (vs do-nothing $-19,568) |
| $66.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 5/6 | $4,266 | $3,535 | 64% | 74% | +$920 | -$39,116 | 245.6% | $-45,135 (vs do-nothing $-23,485) |
| $66.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 5/6 | $3,587 | $2,857 | 63% | 74% | +$817 | -$38,641 | 242.6% | $-44,660 (vs do-nothing $-23,010) |
| $66 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.85 | 4/6 | $3,638 | $2,911 | 62% | 74% | +$824 | -$31,373 | 196.9% | $-40,518 (vs do-nothing $-18,868) |
| $66 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 5/6 | $3,750 | $3,020 | 62% | 74% | +$858 | -$38,766 | 243.4% | $-44,785 (vs do-nothing $-23,135) |
| $65 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 3/6 | $3,500 | $2,777 | 61% | 73% | +$787 | -$24,235 | 152.1% | $-36,506 (vs do-nothing $-14,856) |
| $65 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 4/6 | $3,938 | $3,211 | 60% | 73% | +$1,012 | -$31,613 | 198.4% | $-40,758 (vs do-nothing $-19,108) |
| $65 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 5/6 | $3,978 | $3,248 | 60% | 73% | +$830 | -$39,091 | 245.4% | $-45,110 (vs do-nothing $-23,460) |
| $64 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 2/6 | $6,300 | $5,581 | 59% | 73% | +$1,940 | -$16,636 | 104.4% | $-32,034 (vs do-nothing $-10,384) |
| $64 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 4/6 | $3,443 | $2,717 | 58% | 72% | +$705 | -$31,473 | 197.6% | $-40,618 (vs do-nothing $-18,968) |
| $64 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 4/6 | $4,238 | $3,511 | 57% | 72% | +$1,003 | -$31,853 | 200.0% | $-40,998 (vs do-nothing $-19,348) |
| $64 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 3/6 | $3,950 | $3,227 | 57% | 71% | +$832 | -$24,400 | 153.2% | $-36,671 (vs do-nothing $-15,021) |
| $63.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 4/6 | $3,548 | $2,821 | 57% | 71% | +$695 | -$31,593 | 198.3% | $-40,738 (vs do-nothing $-19,088) |
| $63.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 4/6 | $4,350 | $3,623 | 56% | 72% | +$952 | -$31,993 | 200.8% | $-41,138 (vs do-nothing $-19,488) |
| $63 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 4/6 | $3,652 | $2,926 | 55% | 71% | +$681 | -$31,713 | 199.1% | $-40,858 (vs do-nothing $-19,208) |
| $63.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 3/6 | $4,100 | $3,377 | 55% | 70% | +$763 | -$24,505 | 153.8% | $-36,776 (vs do-nothing $-15,126) |
| $63 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 3/6 | $3,431 | $2,708 | 55% | 71% | +$755 | -$24,055 | 151.0% | $-36,326 (vs do-nothing $-14,676) |
| $62.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.25 | 4/6 | $3,783 | $3,056 | 54% | 70% | +$689 | -$31,813 | 199.7% | $-40,958 (vs do-nothing $-19,308) |
| $63 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 3/6 | $4,400 | $3,677 | 53% | 70% | +$834 | -$24,565 | 154.2% | $-36,836 (vs do-nothing $-15,186) |
| $62.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 3/6 | $3,544 | $2,821 | 53% | 70% | +$736 | -$24,145 | 151.6% | $-36,416 (vs do-nothing $-14,766) |
| $62 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.55 | 4/6 | $3,939 | $3,213 | 53% | 70% | +$720 | -$31,893 | 200.2% | $-41,038 (vs do-nothing $-19,388) |
| $63 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 1/6 | $3,840 | $3,125 | 52% | 70% | +$995 | -$8,372 | 52.6% | $-26,896 (vs do-nothing $-5,246) |
| $62 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 3/6 | $3,712 | $2,990 | 52% | 70% | +$768 | -$24,205 | 151.9% | $-36,476 (vs do-nothing $-14,826) |
| $62.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 3/6 | $4,800 | $4,077 | 52% | 69% | +$993 | -$24,595 | 154.4% | $-36,866 (vs do-nothing $-15,216) |
| $62 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.90 | 3/6 | $4,900 | $4,177 | 50% | 68% | +$841 | -$24,715 | 155.1% | $-36,986 (vs do-nothing $-15,336) |
| $62 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 1/6 | $4,725 | $4,010 | 45% | 68% | +$1,087 | -$8,413 | 52.8% | $-26,937 (vs do-nothing $-5,287) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.