FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB @ $60.52

BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.23 | 6 contracts (600 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RKLB @ $60.52 UNDERWATER $81.04 (57.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

RKLB reports 2026-08-10 (Mon), in 11 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-10.

6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.23 (banked floor $147.85) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $115 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $75.947/sh)

SP: $135 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $49.982/sh)

HP: $45 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.597/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$69,930	(ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600
Normal income ref	$6,240/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$875/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-54,591	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,120/mo

HEDGE COVER
$875/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,240/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $15,930

ML VELOCITY
11.2 mo to earn back $69,930

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $149.23 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $118C (15d, $36/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$863

Hole (after banked)

$53,728

was $54,591 · 2% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$451

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$149.23 → $147.85

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
6x $72C 31 Jul 2026	U18827291	$0.75	$451	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 20 (live) · RSI 41 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B 19 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $89.70 (+48%) · daily UBB $90.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$9 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-10: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 6 contracts at $67.50 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,120/mo); it brings $3,352/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 6 × $63/8d for $6,570/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 6 × $75/8d (92% survival, $900/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $48,146 (302% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $142, recoverable in 7.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 6 contracts realizes $-54,648 and cuts bleed by $875/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 6 × $67.50, 78% survival, $3,352/mo (E[net] $512/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	6 × $67.50	78%	$3,352	$512

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $894 with probability 65%; on the 35% touch you roll, paying $2,115 to close and taking $855 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,260) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $512/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 6 × $67.50 (50% normal), 78% survival, breach 22%, $3,352/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $70 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 84% (breach 22% → 16%) for $990/mo less (30% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $70 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect RKLB to stay flat-to-down near term.

RKLB spot $60.52 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

6 × $75

7 Aug

23.9%

92%hist 100%

16%hist 5%

+2pp

$240

$900

-$2,452

$44,300

Sell 6 × $75 23.9% OTM over spot $60.52 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.49 mid)

= $240 credit for the 8d cycle → $900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $75)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $75.50)

93%

EV / mo

+$380

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

16% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-315/mo

median; plan ~$-214/mo after 68% keep · $-2,714 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [3.0-6.0], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,110

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$83 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.54/sh now → $3.92 mid-life (likely $3.30–$5.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 336 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $77 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$75	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.31/sh	+$786 cycle +$1,026 [+$669…+$1,174] · 99% credit	69% surv 53%	-$45,334 NOT cap gain +$9,257
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$77	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.17/sh	+$103 cycle +$343 [-$149…+$431] · 65% credit	72% surv 61%	-$44,605 NOT cap gain +$9,986
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$81	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.27/sh	+$160 cycle +$400 [-$201…+$523] · 62% credit	76% surv 68%	-$42,560 NOT cap gain +$12,031
Max even-money escape in the band	~$81	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.11/sh	+$67 cycle +$307 [-$296…+$423] · 55% credit	76% surv 69%	-$42,369 NOT cap gain +$12,222
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$83	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.35/sh	-$212 cycle +$28 [-$615…+$137] · 32% credit	78% surv 72%	-$41,795 NOT cap gain +$12,796
budget: banked $240 debit $212 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,564/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$900/mo
vs 50% target ($3,120/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($6,240/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$25/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,300
… as % of IC ($15,930)	278.1%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	63.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.1 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-54,648

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $75.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $74.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $74-75.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $75.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$75.00 (1.5σ)	$240	$-46,121	+$8,470	+$222
+2.5%	$76.88 (1.8σ)	$-885	$-46,180	+$8,411	-$903
+5%	$78.75 (2.0σ)	$-2,010	$-46,240	+$8,351	-$2,028
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (8.7σ)	$-39,690	$-48,237	+$6,354	-$25,578

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,591

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,409

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$44,300

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,481 (+$6,110 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-22,903 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,578, the opportunity cost of earning $900/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $89.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,580, position total $-46,588 (+$8,003 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

6 × $74

7 Aug

22.3%

91%hist 100%

19%hist 5%

+3pp

$306

$1,148

-$2,205

$44,834

Sell 6 × $74 22.3% OTM over spot $60.52 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.59 mid)

= $306 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,148/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $74)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $74.59)

92%

EV / mo

+$518

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

19% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-181/mo

median; plan ~$-123/mo after 68% keep · $-1,540 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [3.2-6.6], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,012

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$82 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.86 mid-life (likely $3.26–$5.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 361 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $76 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$74	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.33/sh	+$797 cycle +$1,103 [+$619…+$1,241] · 98% credit	69% surv 53%	-$45,826 NOT cap gain +$8,765
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$79	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.43/sh	+$260 cycle +$566 [-$180…+$669] · 64% credit	75% surv 67%	-$43,246 NOT cap gain +$11,345
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$76	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.19/sh	+$115 cycle +$421 [-$197…+$473] · 58% credit	72% surv 61%	-$45,096 NOT cap gain +$9,495
Max even-money escape in the band	~$80	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$75 cycle +$381 [-$391…+$466] · 51% credit	76% surv 69%	-$42,863 NOT cap gain +$11,728
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$82	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.49/sh	-$295 cycle +$11 [-$847…+$64] · 29% credit	78% surv 73%	-$42,097 NOT cap gain +$12,494
budget: banked $306 debit $295 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,372/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,148/mo
vs 50% target ($3,120/mo)	-63%
vs normal income ($6,240/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$273/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $74 is $75 below CC-SS $149.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,834
… as % of IC ($15,930)	281.4%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	64.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.2 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-54,642

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $74.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $73.26	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $73-74.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $74.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$74.00 (1.4σ)	$306	$-46,623	+$7,968	+$288
+2.5%	$75.85 (1.6σ)	$-804	$-46,682	+$7,909	-$822
+5%	$77.70 (1.8σ)	$-1,914	$-46,740	+$7,851	-$1,932
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (8.7σ)	$-40,224	$-48,771	+$5,820	-$26,112

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,591

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,409

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $74): -$44,834

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,015 (+$5,576 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-22,903 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,112, the opportunity cost of earning $1,148/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $89.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,114, position total $-47,122 (+$7,469 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

6 × $70

7 Aug

15.7%

84%hist 99%

33%hist 18%

+3pp

$630

$2,362

-$990

$46,910

Sell 6 × $70 15.7% OTM over spot $60.52 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.11 mid)

= $630 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,362/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $70)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $71.11)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,005

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

18% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$334/mo

median; plan ~$227/mo after 68% keep · $2,747 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.1-6.8], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

24%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,563

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$80 @ 82% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $5.17/sh now → $3.66 mid-life (likely $3.53–$5.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 705 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $72 (overshoots $2.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$70	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.39/sh	+$836 cycle +$1,466 [+$566…+$1,046] · 98% credit	69% surv 53%	-$47,736 NOT cap gain +$6,855
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$74	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.83/sh	+$497 cycle +$1,127 [-$7…+$642] · 75% credit	74% surv 65%	-$45,527 NOT cap gain +$9,064
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$73	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.06/sh	+$36 cycle +$666 [-$396…+$154] · 37% credit	73% surv 63%	-$46,839 NOT cap gain +$7,752
Max even-money escape in the band	~$77	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.02/sh	+$10 cycle +$640 [-$588…+$130] · 32% credit	77% surv 70%	-$44,593 NOT cap gain +$9,998
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$80	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.90/sh	-$539 cycle +$91 [-$1,248…-$436] · 9% credit	82% surv 77%	-$43,153 NOT cap gain +$11,438
budget: banked $630 debit $539 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,758/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,362/mo
vs 50% target ($3,120/mo)	-24%
vs normal income ($6,240/mo)	38% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,488/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $149.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$46,910
… as % of IC ($15,930)	294.5%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	67.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.5 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-54,630

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $71.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $69.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $69-71.11	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $71.11	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$70.00 (1.0σ)	$630	$-48,572	+$6,019	+$612
+2.5%	$71.75 (1.2σ)	$-420	$-48,627	+$5,964	-$438
+5%	$73.50 (1.4σ)	$-1,470	$-48,683	+$5,908	-$1,488
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (8.7σ)	$-42,300	$-50,847	+$3,744	-$28,188

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,591

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,409

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $70): -$46,910

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,091 (+$3,500 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-22,903 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,188, the opportunity cost of earning $2,362/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $89.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,190, position total $-49,198 (+$5,393 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

6 × $67.50

7 Aug

11.5%

78%hist 96%

46%hist 28%

+5pp

$894

$3,352

—

$48,146

Sell 6 × $67.50 11.5% OTM over spot $60.52 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.58 mid)

= $894 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,352/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $67.50)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $69.08)

82%

EV / mo

+$1,178

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

21% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$586/mo

median; plan ~$398/mo after 68% keep · $4,703 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.0-6.7], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

35%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,221

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$81 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.71–$5.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,055 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $70 (overshoots $2.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$68	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.42/sh	+$855 cycle +$1,749 [+$535…+$970] · 98% credit	69% surv 53%	-$48,873 NOT cap gain +$5,718
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$72	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.84/sh	+$504 cycle +$1,398 [-$54…+$550] · 71% credit	74% surv 65%	-$46,676 NOT cap gain +$7,915
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$70	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.10/sh	+$58 cycle +$952 [-$407…+$80] · 31% credit	73% surv 63%	-$47,974 NOT cap gain +$6,617
Max even-money escape in the band	~$74	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$22 cycle +$916 [-$633…+$14] · 26% credit	77% surv 71%	-$45,738 NOT cap gain +$8,853
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$81	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.48/sh	-$890 cycle +$4 [-$1,738…-$949] · 1% credit	85% surv 82%	-$42,956 NOT cap gain +$11,635
budget: banked $894 debit $890 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,042/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,352/mo
vs 50% target ($3,120/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($6,240/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,478/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $67.50 is $82 below CC-SS $149.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$48,146
… as % of IC ($15,930)	302.2%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	68.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.7 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-54,648

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.49 collected) or spot ≥ $69.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $66.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $67-69.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $69.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$67.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$894	$-49,728	+$4,863	+$876
+2.5%	$69.19 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-118	$-49,782	+$4,809	-$136
+5%	$70.88 (1.1σ)	$-1,131	$-49,835	+$4,756	-$1,149
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (8.7σ)	$-43,536	$-52,083	+$2,508	-$29,424

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,591

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,409

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $67.50): -$48,146

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,327 (+$2,264 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-22,903 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,424, the opportunity cost of earning $3,352/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $89.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,426, position total $-50,434 (+$4,157 vs today)

▸

100% normal

6 × $63

7 Aug

4.1%

63%hist 80%

78%hist 59%

+9pp

$1,752

$6,570

+$3,218

$49,988

Sell 6 × $63 4.1% OTM over spot $60.52 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $3.08 mid)

= $1,752 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,570/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $63)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $66.08)

74%

EV / mo

+$1,761

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

20% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~8.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,084/mo

median; plan ~$737/mo after 68% keep · $8,701 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.5-6.6], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

62%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$222

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$81 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $4.65/sh now → $3.29 mid-life (likely $4.19–$5.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,869 simulated challenges: the $63 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $65 (overshoots $2.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$63	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.47/sh	+$880 cycle +$2,632 [+$467…+$760] · 99% credit	69% surv 54%	-$50,547 NOT cap gain +$4,044
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$66	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.19/sh	+$716 cycle +$2,468 [+$41…+$480] · 77% credit	73% surv 64%	-$48,731 NOT cap gain +$5,860
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$66	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.04/sh	+$23 cycle +$1,775 [-$557…-$185] · 13% credit	75% surv 65%	-$49,424 NOT cap gain +$5,167
Max even-money escape in the band	~$70	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$34 cycle +$1,786 [-$782…-$251] · 13% credit	78% surv 71%	-$47,424 NOT cap gain +$7,167
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$81	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.10/sh	-$1,260 cycle +$492 [-$2,457…-$1,654]	90% surv 89%	-$42,184 NOT cap gain +$12,407
budget: banked $1,752 debit $1,260 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$492 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,190/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,570/mo
vs 50% target ($3,120/mo)	+111%
vs normal income ($6,240/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,695/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $63 is $86 below CC-SS $149.23: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$49,988
… as % of IC ($15,930)	313.8%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	71.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.0 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-54,690

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.92 collected) or spot ≥ $66.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $63)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $90.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $62.37	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $62-66.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $66.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.95 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$63.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,752	$-51,427	+$3,164	+$1,734
+2.5%	$64.57 (≤1σ, normal week)	$807	$-51,477	+$3,114	+$789
+5%	$66.15 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-138	$-51,527	+$3,064	-$156
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (8.7σ)	$-45,378	$-53,925	+$666	-$31,266

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.23, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-54,591

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,409

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $63): -$49,988

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-54,169 (+$422 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-22,903 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,266, the opportunity cost of earning $6,570/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $89.70 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,268, position total $-52,276 (+$2,315 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RKLB are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (37 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.947 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,409 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-22,903

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$67.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.49	6/6	$3,352	$2,478	78%	82%	+$1,178	-$48,146	302.2%	$-52,327 (vs do-nothing $-29,424)
$67	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.60	6/6	$3,600	$2,725	77%	81%	+$1,216	-$48,380	303.7%	$-52,561 (vs do-nothing $-29,658)
$66.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.73	5/6	$3,244	$2,375	75%	81%	+$1,067	-$40,501	254.2%	$-47,803 (vs do-nothing $-24,900)
$68.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	6/6	$3,240	$2,365	75%	80%	+$910	-$46,820	293.9%	$-51,001 (vs do-nothing $-28,098)
$66	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.88	5/6	$3,525	$2,656	74%	80%	+$1,142	-$40,676	255.3%	$-47,978 (vs do-nothing $-25,075)
$68	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.85	6/6	$3,420	$2,545	74%	80%	+$951	-$47,030	295.2%	$-51,211 (vs do-nothing $-28,308)
$67.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.00	6/6	$3,600	$2,725	72%	79%	+$985	-$47,240	296.5%	$-51,421 (vs do-nothing $-28,518)
$67	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.00	6/6	$3,600	$2,725	72%	79%	+$1,158	-$47,540	298.4%	$-51,721 (vs do-nothing $-28,818)
$66.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.15	5/6	$3,150	$2,281	71%	79%	+$984	-$39,791	249.8%	$-47,093 (vs do-nothing $-24,190)
$65	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.17	4/6	$3,255	$2,392	71%	78%	+$978	-$32,825	206.1%	$-43,247 (vs do-nothing $-20,344)
$67	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.95	6/6	$3,232	$2,357	70%	77%	+$749	-$46,970	294.8%	$-51,151 (vs do-nothing $-28,248)
$66	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.25	5/6	$3,250	$2,381	70%	78%	+$945	-$39,991	251.0%	$-47,293 (vs do-nothing $-24,390)
$66.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.10	6/6	$3,355	$2,480	69%	77%	+$752	-$47,180	296.2%	$-51,361 (vs do-nothing $-28,458)

Show 24 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$66	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.25	6/6	$3,477	$2,602	68%	76%	+$749	-$47,390	297.5%	$-51,571 (vs do-nothing $-28,668)
$65	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.65	5/6	$3,650	$2,781	67%	77%	+$1,047	-$40,291	252.9%	$-47,593 (vs do-nothing $-24,690)
$64	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.40	4/6	$3,600	$2,737	67%	76%	+$891	-$33,133	208.0%	$-43,555 (vs do-nothing $-20,652)
$65	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.60	5/6	$3,136	$2,268	66%	75%	+$642	-$39,816	249.9%	$-47,118 (vs do-nothing $-24,215)
$63.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.71	4/6	$4,065	$3,202	65%	75%	+$1,116	-$33,209	208.5%	$-43,631 (vs do-nothing $-20,728)
$64	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.00	4/6	$3,200	$2,337	64%	75%	+$855	-$32,493	204.0%	$-42,915 (vs do-nothing $-20,012)
$64	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.95	5/6	$3,375	$2,506	63%	75%	+$643	-$40,141	252.0%	$-47,443 (vs do-nothing $-24,540)
$63	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.92	3/6	$3,285	$2,428	63%	74%	+$881	-$24,994	156.9%	$-38,536 (vs do-nothing $-15,633)
$63.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.10	4/6	$3,280	$2,417	63%	75%	+$794	-$32,653	205.0%	$-43,075 (vs do-nothing $-20,172)
$63.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.20	5/6	$3,545	$2,677	62%	73%	+$687	-$40,266	252.8%	$-47,568 (vs do-nothing $-24,665)
$63	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.30	4/6	$3,440	$2,577	62%	74%	+$807	-$32,773	205.7%	$-43,195 (vs do-nothing $-20,292)
$62.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	3/6	$3,375	$2,518	61%	73%	+$764	-$25,120	157.7%	$-38,662 (vs do-nothing $-15,759)
$63	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.40	5/6	$3,682	$2,813	61%	73%	+$693	-$40,416	253.7%	$-47,718 (vs do-nothing $-24,815)
$62.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.50	4/6	$3,600	$2,737	60%	73%	+$813	-$32,893	206.5%	$-43,315 (vs do-nothing $-20,412)
$62.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.60	5/6	$3,818	$2,949	60%	73%	+$819	-$40,566	254.7%	$-47,868 (vs do-nothing $-24,965)
$62	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	3/6	$3,712	$2,856	59%	72%	+$882	-$25,180	158.1%	$-38,722 (vs do-nothing $-15,819)
$62	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.85	4/6	$3,191	$2,328	59%	72%	+$681	-$32,553	204.4%	$-42,975 (vs do-nothing $-20,072)
$62	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.00	4/6	$4,000	$3,137	59%	73%	+$1,052	-$32,893	206.5%	$-43,315 (vs do-nothing $-20,412)
$61	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.25	4/6	$3,409	$2,546	56%	71%	+$666	-$32,793	205.9%	$-43,215 (vs do-nothing $-20,312)
$61	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.20	3/6	$3,120	$2,263	56%	71%	+$652	-$24,910	156.4%	$-38,452 (vs do-nothing $-15,549)
$61	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.70	3/6	$4,162	$3,306	55%	70%	+$848	-$25,360	159.2%	$-38,902 (vs do-nothing $-15,999)
$60	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.60	4/6	$3,600	$2,737	54%	70%	+$608	-$33,053	207.5%	$-43,475 (vs do-nothing $-20,572)
$60	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.65	3/6	$3,390	$2,533	53%	70%	+$643	-$25,075	157.4%	$-38,617 (vs do-nothing $-15,714)
$60	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.15	3/6	$4,669	$3,812	51%	68%	+$812	-$25,525	160.2%	$-39,067 (vs do-nothing $-16,164)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39