FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB @ $67.25

BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.78 | 6 contracts (600 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RKLB @ $67.25 UNDERWATER $74.30 (52.5% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

RKLB reports 2026-08-10 (Mon), in 10 days. The recommended CC (7d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-10.

6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.78 (banked floor $148.40) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $115 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $75.947/sh)

SP: $135 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $49.982/sh)

HP: $45 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.597/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$69,930	(ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600
Normal income ref	$5,979/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$632/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-51,258	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,989/mo

HEDGE COVER
$632/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,979/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $15,930

ML VELOCITY
11.7 mo to earn back $69,930

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $149.78 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $135C (14d, $26/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$863

Hole (after banked)

$50,395

was $51,258 · 2% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$451

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$149.78 → $148.40

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
6x $72C 31 Jul 2026	U18827291	$0.75	$451	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 26 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $90.06 (+34%) · daily UBB $85.76 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-10: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 6 contracts at $73 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,989/mo); it brings $3,086/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 6 × $68.50/7d for $6,146/mo, but breach risk rises to 42% (+16pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 6 × $81/7d (92% survival, $669/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $45,348 (285% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $142, recoverable in 7.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 6 contracts realizes $-51,309 and cuts bleed by $632/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · sell 6 × $73, 74% survival, $3,086/mo (E[net] $1,254/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 7d	6 × $73	74%	$3,086	$1,254

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $720 with probability 59%; on the 41% touch you roll, paying $1,472 to close and taking $1,153 back from the best priced door (net cash $319) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,254/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 6 × $73 (50% normal), 74% survival, breach 26%, $3,086/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $75 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 26% → 20%) for $849/mo less (27% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $75 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect RKLB to stay flat-to-down near term.

RKLB spot $67.25 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

6 × $81

7 Aug

20.4%

92%hist 100%

17%hist 5%

+2pp

$156

$669

-$2,417

$41,112

Sell 6 × $81 20.4% OTM over spot $67.25 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.35 mid)

= $156 credit for the 7d cycle → $669/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $81)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $81.35)

92%

EV / mo

+$72

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

27% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-173/mo

median; plan ~$-118/mo after 68% keep · $-1,380 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.3-5.9], measured ONLY among the 27% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,478

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$94 @ 80% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.85/sh now → $2.72 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 286 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $84 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$81	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.92/sh	+$1,152 cycle +$1,308 [+$1,035…+$1,377] · 100% credit	66% surv 53%	-$41,675 NOT cap gain +$9,583
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$90	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.62/sh	+$372 cycle +$528 [-$80…+$532] · 70% credit	76% surv 71%	-$37,190 NOT cap gain +$14,068
Max even-money escape in the band	~$91	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$50 cycle +$206 [-$402…+$175] · 44% credit	78% surv 74%	-$36,910 NOT cap gain +$14,348
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$87	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.01/sh	+$6 cycle +$162 [-$393…+$91] · 38% credit	75% surv 69%	-$39,361 NOT cap gain +$11,897
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$94	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.23/sh	-$140 cycle +$16 [-$704…-$4] · 24% credit	80% surv 77%	-$35,295 NOT cap gain +$15,963
budget: banked $156 debit $140 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$16 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,867/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$669/mo
vs 50% target ($2,989/mo)	-78%
vs normal income ($5,979/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$37/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $81 is $69 below CC-SS $149.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$41,112
… as % of IC ($15,930)	258.1%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	58.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.9 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,312

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $81.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $85.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $80.19	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $80-81.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $81.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$81.00 (1.4σ)	$156	$-42,827	+$8,431	+$132
+2.5%	$83.02 (1.7σ)	$-1,059	$-42,824	+$8,434	-$1,083
+5%	$85.05 (1.9σ)	$-2,274	$-42,820	+$8,438	-$2,298
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (7.8σ)	$-36,174	$-42,718	+$8,540	-$35,268

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,258

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,666

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $81): -$41,112

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,703 (+$8,555 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,268, the opportunity cost of earning $669/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,280, position total $-42,811 (+$8,447 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

6 × $86

14 Aug

14d

27.9%

91%hist 100%

19%hist 5%

+1pp

$492

$1,054

-$2,031

$37,776

Sell 6 × $86 27.9% OTM over spot $67.25 14 Aug 2026 (14d, $0.97 mid)

= $492 credit for the 14d cycle → $1,054/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $86)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $86.97)

92%

EV / mo

+$508

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

23% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-4/mo

median; plan ~$-3/mo after 68% keep · $-11 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.5-6.4], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,411

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$89 @ 70% POP

60% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.84/sh now → $4.84 mid-life (likely $4.24–$6.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 571 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $89 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$86	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.56/sh	+$338 cycle +$830 [+$199…+$816] · 94% credit	67% surv 54%	-$39,145 NOT cap gain +$12,113
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$88	28 Aug 2026	21d left	+$0.86/sh	+$519 cycle +$1,011 [+$253…+$1,030] · 91% credit	69% surv 58%	-$37,910 NOT cap gain +$13,348
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$87	21 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.00/sh	+$3 cycle +$495 [-$202…+$424] · 54% credit	68% surv 57%	-$38,727 NOT cap gain +$12,531
Max even-money escape in the band	~$89	28 Aug 2026	21d left	+$0.01/sh	+$8 cycle +$500 [-$370…+$449] · 49% credit	69% surv 60%	-$37,819 NOT cap gain +$13,439
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$89	21 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.51/sh	-$306 cycle +$186 [-$578…+$44] · 27% credit	70% surv 60%	-$38,134 NOT cap gain +$13,124
budget: banked $492 debit $306 (62% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$186 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $5,564/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,054/mo
vs 50% target ($2,989/mo)	-65%
vs normal income ($5,979/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$422/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $86 is $64 below CC-SS $149.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$37,776
… as % of IC ($15,930)	237.1%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	54.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.3 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,345

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $86.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $85.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $85.14	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $85-86.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $86.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$86.00 (1.4σ)	$492	$-39,482	+$11,776	+$468
+2.5%	$88.15 (1.6σ)	$-798	$-39,478	+$11,780	-$822
+5%	$90.30 (1.7σ)	$-2,088	$-39,475	+$11,783	-$2,112
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (5.5σ)	$-32,838	$-39,382	+$11,876	-$31,932

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,258

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,666

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$37,776

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,367 (+$11,891 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,932, the opportunity cost of earning $1,054/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,944, position total $-39,475 (+$11,783 vs today)

▸

33% normal ← lean

6 × $75

7 Aug

11.5%

80%hist 99%

41%hist 28%

+4pp

$522

$2,237

-$849

$44,346

Sell 6 × $75 11.5% OTM over spot $67.25 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.93 mid)

= $522 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,237/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $75)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $75.93)

82%

EV / mo

+$100

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

23% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$397/mo

median; plan ~$270/mo after 68% keep · $3,050 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.6-6.5], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$991

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$91 @ 83% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $3.56/sh now → $2.52 mid-life (likely $2.65–$4.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 906 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $77 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$75	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.93/sh	+$1,155 cycle +$1,677 [+$966…+$1,251] · 100% credit	66% surv 54%	-$44,917 NOT cap gain +$6,341
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$84	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.63/sh	+$377 cycle +$899 [-$179…+$404] · 63% credit	76% surv 71%	-$40,429 NOT cap gain +$10,829
Max even-money escape in the band	~$87	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$14 cycle +$536 [-$619…+$15] · 26% credit	79% surv 76%	-$38,987 NOT cap gain +$12,271
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$81	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$24 cycle +$546 [-$414…+$10] · 26% credit	75% surv 69%	-$42,588 NOT cap gain +$8,670
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$91	28 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.74/sh	-$442 cycle +$80 [-$1,182…-$468] · 8% credit	83% surv 81%	-$37,036 NOT cap gain +$14,222
budget: banked $522 debit $442 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,338/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,237/mo
vs 50% target ($2,989/mo)	-25%
vs normal income ($5,979/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,605/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $75 is $75 below CC-SS $149.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$44,346
… as % of IC ($15,930)	278.4%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	63.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.4 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,294

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $75.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $85.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $74.25	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $74-75.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $75.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$75.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$522	$-46,072	+$5,186	+$498
+2.5%	$76.88 (1.0σ)	$-603	$-46,069	+$5,189	-$627
+5%	$78.75 (1.2σ)	$-1,728	$-46,065	+$5,193	-$1,752
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (7.8σ)	$-39,408	$-45,952	+$5,306	-$38,502

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,258

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,666

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$44,346

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,937 (+$5,321 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-38,502, the opportunity cost of earning $2,237/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,514, position total $-46,045 (+$5,213 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

6 × $73

7 Aug

8.6%

74%hist 96%

53%hist 43%

+3pp

$720

$3,086

—

$45,348

Sell 6 × $73 8.6% OTM over spot $67.25 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.29 mid)

= $720 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,086/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $73)

74%

Breach risk

26%

POP (stays ≤ $74.28)

78%

EV / mo

$-3

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

20% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$588/mo

median; plan ~$400/mo after 68% keep · $4,486 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.5-5.7], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

41%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$752

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$91 @ 88% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $3.47/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.76–$4.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,234 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $75 (overshoots $2.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$73	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.92/sh	+$1,153 cycle +$1,873 [+$961…+$1,184] · 100% credit	66% surv 54%	-$45,924 NOT cap gain +$5,334
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$81	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.55/sh	+$333 cycle +$1,053 [-$127…+$271] · 61% credit	77% surv 71%	-$42,081 NOT cap gain +$9,177
Max even-money escape in the band	~$85	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$16 cycle +$736 [-$604…-$76] · 21% credit	80% surv 76%	-$39,990 NOT cap gain +$11,268
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$79	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.05/sh	+$28 cycle +$748 [-$402…-$41] · 21% credit	75% surv 70%	-$43,590 NOT cap gain +$7,668
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$91	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.18/sh	-$711 cycle +$9 [-$1,437…-$840]	88% surv 87%	-$37,107 NOT cap gain +$14,151
budget: banked $720 debit $711 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,269/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,086/mo
vs 50% target ($2,989/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($5,979/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,454/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $73 is $77 below CC-SS $149.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$45,348
… as % of IC ($15,930)	284.7%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	64.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.6 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,309

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $74.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $73)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $85.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $72.27	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $72-74.28	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $74.28	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$73.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$720	$-47,078	+$4,180	+$696
+2.5%	$74.82 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-375	$-47,074	+$4,184	-$399
+5%	$76.65 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,470	$-47,071	+$4,187	-$1,494
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (7.8σ)	$-40,410	$-46,954	+$4,304	-$39,504

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,258

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,666

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $73): -$45,348

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,939 (+$4,319 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,504, the opportunity cost of earning $3,086/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,516, position total $-47,047 (+$4,211 vs today)

▸

100% normal

6 × $68.50

7 Aug

1.9%

58%hist 79%

89%hist 80%

+5pp

$1,434

$6,146

+$3,060

$47,334

Sell 6 × $68.50 1.9% OTM over spot $67.25 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $2.48 mid)

= $1,434 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,146/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $68.50)

58%

Breach risk

42%

POP (stays ≤ $70.98)

68%

EV / mo

$-479

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

24% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~11.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,005/mo

median; plan ~$683/mo after 68% keep · $7,737 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.1-6.5], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

69%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$52

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$83 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.30 mid-life (likely $3.11–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,067 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $71 (overshoots $2.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$68	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.91/sh	+$1,143 cycle +$2,577 [+$899…+$1,038] · 100% credit	66% surv 54%	-$47,929 NOT cap gain +$3,329
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$75	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.73/sh	+$440 cycle +$1,874 [-$123…+$215] · 62% credit	76% surv 70%	-$44,570 NOT cap gain +$6,688
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$74	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.05/sh	+$31 cycle +$1,465 [-$498…-$159] · 8% credit	76% surv 70%	-$45,581 NOT cap gain +$5,677
Max even-money escape in the band	~$80	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.03/sh	+$15 cycle +$1,449 [-$787…-$289] · 8% credit	80% surv 77%	-$41,986 NOT cap gain +$9,272
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$83	14 Aug 2026	10d left	-$1.51/sh	-$905 cycle +$529 [-$1,780…-$1,209]	90% surv 89%	-$41,100 NOT cap gain +$10,158
budget: banked $1,434 debit $905 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$529 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,430/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,146/mo
vs 50% target ($2,989/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($5,979/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,514/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $68.50 is $81 below CC-SS $149.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,334
… as % of IC ($15,930)	297.1%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	67.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.9 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-51,312

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.39 collected) or spot ≥ $70.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $85.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $67.81	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $68-70.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $70.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$68.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,434	$-49,072	+$2,186	+$1,410
+2.5%	$70.21 (≤1σ, normal week)	$407	$-49,069	+$2,189	+$383
+5%	$71.92 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-621	$-49,066	+$2,192	-$645
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (7.8σ)	$-42,396	$-48,940	+$2,318	-$41,490

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,258

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,666

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $68.50): -$47,334

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,925 (+$2,333 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,490, the opportunity cost of earning $6,146/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $90.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,502, position total $-49,033 (+$2,225 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RKLB are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (40 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.003 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$49,666 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,435

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$73	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.20	6/6	$3,086	$2,454	74%	78%	$-3	-$45,348	284.7%	$-46,939 (vs do-nothing $-39,504)
$75	14d	14 Aug 2026	$2.44	6/6	$3,137	$2,505	73%	78%	+$219	-$43,404	272.5%	$-44,995 (vs do-nothing $-37,560)
$72	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.41	5/6	$3,021	$2,395	71%	76%	$-54	-$38,185	239.7%	$-40,750 (vs do-nothing $-33,315)
$74	14d	14 Aug 2026	$2.66	6/6	$3,420	$2,788	71%	76%	+$172	-$43,872	275.4%	$-45,463 (vs do-nothing $-38,028)
$73	14d	14 Aug 2026	$2.91	5/6	$3,118	$2,492	69%	75%	+$110	-$36,935	231.9%	$-39,500 (vs do-nothing $-32,065)
$71	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.66	5/6	$3,557	$2,931	68%	74%	$-100	-$38,560	242.1%	$-41,125 (vs do-nothing $-33,690)
$73	21d	21 Aug 2026	$3.75	6/6	$3,214	$2,582	67%	75%	+$205	-$43,818	275.1%	$-45,409 (vs do-nothing $-37,974)
$72	14d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/6	$3,321	$2,695	66%	74%	$-15	-$37,340	234.4%	$-39,905 (vs do-nothing $-32,470)
$72	21d	21 Aug 2026	$4.05	6/6	$3,471	$2,840	65%	74%	+$184	-$44,238	277.7%	$-45,829 (vs do-nothing $-38,394)
$70	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.94	4/6	$3,326	$2,705	64%	71%	$-138	-$31,136	195.5%	$-34,675 (vs do-nothing $-27,240)
$71	14d	14 Aug 2026	$3.50	4/6	$3,000	$2,380	64%	72%	+$44	-$30,112	189.0%	$-33,651 (vs do-nothing $-26,216)
$71	21d	21 Aug 2026	$4.35	5/6	$3,107	$2,481	63%	73%	+$217	-$37,215	233.6%	$-39,780 (vs do-nothing $-32,345)
$70	14d	14 Aug 2026	$3.85	4/6	$3,300	$2,680	62%	71%	+$33	-$30,372	190.7%	$-33,911 (vs do-nothing $-26,476)

Show 27 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$70	21d	21 Aug 2026	$4.75	5/6	$3,393	$2,767	61%	71%	+$238	-$37,515	235.5%	$-40,080 (vs do-nothing $-32,645)
$70	28d	28 Aug 2026	$4.95	6/6	$3,182	$2,550	61%	72%	$-206	-$44,898	281.8%	$-46,489 (vs do-nothing $-39,054)
$69	7d	7 Aug 2026	$2.22	4/6	$3,806	$3,185	60%	69%	$-273	-$31,424	197.3%	$-34,963 (vs do-nothing $-27,528)
$69	28d	28 Aug 2026	$5.80	5/6	$3,107	$2,481	59%	71%	+$69	-$37,490	235.3%	$-40,055 (vs do-nothing $-32,620)
$69	21d	21 Aug 2026	$5.10	5/6	$3,643	$3,017	59%	70%	+$205	-$37,840	237.5%	$-40,405 (vs do-nothing $-32,970)
$69	14d	14 Aug 2026	$4.10	4/6	$3,514	$2,894	59%	70%	$-91	-$30,672	192.5%	$-34,211 (vs do-nothing $-26,776)
$68.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$2.39	3/6	$3,073	$2,458	58%	68%	$-240	-$23,667	148.6%	$-28,180 (vs do-nothing $-20,745)
$68.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$5.25	4/6	$3,000	$2,380	58%	70%	+$131	-$30,412	190.9%	$-33,951 (vs do-nothing $-26,516)
$68.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$4.30	4/6	$3,686	$3,065	58%	69%	$-98	-$30,792	193.3%	$-34,331 (vs do-nothing $-26,896)
$68	28d	28 Aug 2026	$5.75	5/6	$3,080	$2,454	57%	69%	$-187	-$38,015	238.6%	$-40,580 (vs do-nothing $-33,145)
$68	21d	21 Aug 2026	$5.45	4/6	$3,114	$2,494	57%	69%	+$122	-$30,532	191.7%	$-34,071 (vs do-nothing $-26,636)
$68	14d	14 Aug 2026	$4.45	4/6	$3,814	$3,194	56%	68%	$-155	-$30,932	194.2%	$-34,471 (vs do-nothing $-27,036)
$68	7d	7 Aug 2026	$2.59	3/6	$3,330	$2,715	56%	67%	$-252	-$23,757	149.1%	$-28,270 (vs do-nothing $-20,835)
$67.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$5.70	4/6	$3,257	$2,637	55%	68%	+$138	-$30,632	192.3%	$-34,171 (vs do-nothing $-26,736)
$67	28d	28 Aug 2026	$6.15	5/6	$3,295	$2,669	55%	69%	$-214	-$38,315	240.5%	$-40,880 (vs do-nothing $-33,445)
$67.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$4.70	3/6	$3,021	$2,407	55%	68%	$-100	-$23,274	146.1%	$-27,787 (vs do-nothing $-20,352)
$67	21d	21 Aug 2026	$5.90	4/6	$3,371	$2,751	54%	68%	+$121	-$30,752	193.0%	$-34,291 (vs do-nothing $-26,856)
$67.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$2.75	3/6	$3,536	$2,921	54%	66%	$-333	-$23,859	149.8%	$-28,372 (vs do-nothing $-20,937)
$67	14d	14 Aug 2026	$4.90	3/6	$3,150	$2,535	54%	67%	$-121	-$23,364	146.7%	$-27,877 (vs do-nothing $-20,442)
$66.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$6.10	4/6	$3,486	$2,865	53%	67%	+$100	-$30,872	193.8%	$-34,411 (vs do-nothing $-26,976)
$66	28d	28 Aug 2026	$6.60	5/6	$3,536	$2,910	53%	68%	$-229	-$38,590	242.2%	$-41,155 (vs do-nothing $-33,720)
$66.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	3/6	$3,279	$2,664	52%	66%	$-148	-$23,454	147.2%	$-27,967 (vs do-nothing $-20,532)
$66	21d	21 Aug 2026	$6.30	4/6	$3,600	$2,980	52%	67%	+$75	-$30,992	194.5%	$-34,531 (vs do-nothing $-27,096)
$67	7d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	3/6	$3,857	$3,242	52%	65%	$-315	-$23,934	150.2%	$-28,447 (vs do-nothing $-21,012)
$66	14d	14 Aug 2026	$5.30	3/6	$3,407	$2,792	51%	65%	$-180	-$23,544	147.8%	$-28,057 (vs do-nothing $-20,622)
$66.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$3.10	3/6	$3,986	$3,371	49%	63%	$-507	-$24,054	151.0%	$-28,567 (vs do-nothing $-21,132)
$66	7d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	3/6	$4,243	$3,628	47%	62%	$-587	-$24,144	151.6%	$-28,657 (vs do-nothing $-21,222)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-31 21:46