6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.14 (banked floor $147.05) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $7,729/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $348/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-46,656 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 3d | 6 × $85 | 90% | $4,080 | $3,499 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 10d | 6 × $88 | 82% | $3,906 | $294 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $95 | 7 Aug | 3d | 27.7% | 99%hist 99% | 2%hist 1% | +0pp | $40 | $400 | -$3,680 | $27,031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 27.7% OTM over spot $74.40 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.11 mid) = $40 credit for the 3d cycle → $400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $95.11) 99% EV / mo +$342 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-33/mo median; plan ~$-22/mo after 68% keep · $-230 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,789 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $111 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.17/sh now → $3.66 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $54 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $95.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$27,031 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$909 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,226 (+$18,430 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,485, the opportunity cost of earning $400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,705, position total $-28,595 (+$18,061 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $86 | 7 Aug | 3d | 15.6% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +6pp | $260 | $2,600 | -$1,480 | $31,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $86 15.6% OTM over spot $74.40 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.60 mid) = $260 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $86.60) 92% EV / mo +$1,603 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,234/mo median; plan ~$839/mo after 68% keep · $7,883 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.9-5.6], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,396 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $104 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.10–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 298 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $89 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $63 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $86.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $86): -$31,311 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$909 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,506 (+$14,150 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,765, the opportunity cost of earning $2,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,985, position total $-32,875 (+$13,781 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $86 | 7 Aug | 3d | 15.6% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +5pp | $312 | $3,120 | -$960 | $37,573 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $86 15.6% OTM over spot $74.40 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.60 mid) = $312 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $86.60) 92% EV / mo +$1,924 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,469/mo median; plan ~$999/mo after 68% keep · $8,983 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-4.9], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,675 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $104 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.20–$5.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 278 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $89 (overshoots $2.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $63 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $86.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$37,573 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,859 (+$8,797 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,118, the opportunity cost of earning $3,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,182, position total $-38,077 (+$8,579 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $85 | 7 Aug | 3d | 14.2% | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 18% | +10pp | $408 | $4,080 | — | $38,077 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $85 14.2% OTM over spot $74.40 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.70 mid) = $408 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $85.70) 91% EV / mo +$2,514 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,990/mo median; plan ~$1,353/mo after 68% keep · $13,172 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.1-5.7], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,556 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $103 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.63/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $3.15–$5.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 364 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $88 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $64 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $85.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $85): -$38,077 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,363 (+$8,293 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,622, the opportunity cost of earning $4,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,686, position total $-38,581 (+$8,075 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $81 | 7 Aug | 3d | 8.9% | 80%hist 92% | 42%hist 32% | +10pp | $798 | $7,980 | +$3,900 | $40,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $81 8.9% OTM over spot $74.40 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $1.41 mid) = $798 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $82.41) 84% EV / mo +$3,799 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,135/mo median; plan ~$2,132/mo after 68% keep · $19,217 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.0], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,073 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $102 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.41/sh now → $3.12 mid-life (likely $3.25–$6.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $84 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $68 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.33 collected) or spot ≥ $82.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $81): -$40,087 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,373 (+$6,283 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,632, the opportunity cost of earning $7,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,696, position total $-40,591 (+$6,065 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $108 | 14 Aug | 10d | 45.2% | 97%hist 99% | 7%hist 1% | +1pp | $135 | $405 | -$3,501 | $20,436 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $108 45.2% OTM over spot $74.40 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $135 credit for the 10d cycle → $405/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $108.36) 97% EV / mo +$234 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-65/mo median; plan ~$-44/mo after 68% keep · $-427 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,427 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $112 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.07/sh now → $7.12 mid-life (likely $5.03–$9.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 113 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $112 (overshoots $4.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $41 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $108.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $108): -$20,436 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$909 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,631 (+$25,025 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,890, the opportunity cost of earning $405/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,110, position total $-22,000 (+$24,656 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $96 | 14 Aug | 10d | 29.0% | 91%hist 99% | 19%hist 6% | +3pp | $618 | $1,854 | -$2,052 | $31,267 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $96 29.0% OTM over spot $74.40 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.56 mid) = $618 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,854/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $97.56) 92% EV / mo +$948 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $662/mo median; plan ~$450/mo after 68% keep · $4,007 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.4-5.3], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,181 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $103 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.95/sh now → $6.33 mid-life (likely $4.97–$9.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 403 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $100 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $53 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $97.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $96): -$31,267 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,553 (+$15,103 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,812, the opportunity cost of earning $1,854/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,876, position total $-31,771 (+$14,885 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $92 | 14 Aug | 10d | 23.7% | 87%hist 95% | 27%hist 18% | +4pp | $906 | $2,718 | -$1,188 | $33,379 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $92 23.7% OTM over spot $74.40 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.31 mid) = $906 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,718/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $94.31) 89% EV / mo +$1,266 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $985/mo median; plan ~$670/mo after 68% keep · $6,645 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,735 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $100 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.57/sh now → $6.07 mid-life (likely $5.78–$9.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 568 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $96 (overshoots $3.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92 is $57 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.51 collected) or spot ≥ $94.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $92): -$33,379 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,665 (+$12,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,924, the opportunity cost of earning $2,718/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,988, position total $-33,883 (+$12,773 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $88 | 14 Aug | 10d | 18.3% | 82%hist 95% | 38%hist 22% | +7pp | $1,302 | $3,906 | — | $35,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $88 18.3% OTM over spot $74.40 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.29 mid) = $1,302 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,906/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $90.28) 85% EV / mo +$1,617 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,393/mo median; plan ~$947/mo after 68% keep · $8,878 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.9], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,181 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $100 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.20/sh now → $5.80 mid-life (likely $5.69–$8.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 888 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $91 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $61 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.17 collected) or spot ≥ $90.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $88): -$35,383 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,669 (+$10,987 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,928, the opportunity cost of earning $3,906/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,992, position total $-35,887 (+$10,769 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $80 | 14 Aug | 10d | 7.5% | 68%hist 78% | 69%hist 55% | +8pp | $2,580 | $7,740 | +$3,834 | $38,905 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $80 7.5% OTM over spot $74.40 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $4.42 mid) = $2,580 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $84.42) 77% EV / mo +$2,382 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,985/mo median; plan ~$1,350/mo after 68% keep · $12,691 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.8-4.5], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$586 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $101 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.46/sh now → $5.28 mid-life (likely $6.52–$9.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,703 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $83 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $69 below CC-SS $149.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $84.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.03 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$46,370 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $80): -$38,905 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,191 (+$7,465 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,741 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,450, the opportunity cost of earning $7,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,514, position total $-39,409 (+$7,247 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 47 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.034 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$46,370 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,741
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 6/6 | $4,080 | $3,732 | 90% | 91% | +$2,514 | -$38,077 | 239.0% | $-38,363 (vs do-nothing $-32,622) |
| $84 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 5/6 | $3,950 | $3,611 | 88% | 89% | +$2,260 | -$32,176 | 202.0% | $-33,371 (vs do-nothing $-27,630) |
| $83 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 5/6 | $4,700 | $4,361 | 85% | 88% | +$2,531 | -$32,601 | 204.7% | $-33,796 (vs do-nothing $-28,055) |
| $82 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 4/6 | $4,560 | $4,230 | 83% | 86% | +$2,352 | -$26,401 | 165.7% | $-28,505 (vs do-nothing $-22,764) |
| $88 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 6/6 | $3,906 | $3,558 | 82% | 85% | +$1,617 | -$35,383 | 222.1% | $-35,669 (vs do-nothing $-29,928) |
| $87 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.38 | 6/6 | $4,284 | $3,936 | 81% | 84% | +$1,726 | -$35,857 | 225.1% | $-36,143 (vs do-nothing $-30,402) |
| $81 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 3/6 | $3,990 | $3,668 | 80% | 84% | +$1,899 | -$20,043 | 125.8% | $-23,057 (vs do-nothing $-17,316) |
| $86 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.54 | 6/6 | $4,572 | $4,224 | 79% | 83% | +$1,717 | -$36,361 | 228.3% | $-36,647 (vs do-nothing $-30,906) |
| $85 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.82 | 5/6 | $4,230 | $3,891 | 77% | 82% | +$1,579 | -$30,661 | 192.5% | $-31,856 (vs do-nothing $-26,115) |
| $80 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.63 | 3/6 | $4,890 | $4,568 | 77% | 82% | +$2,269 | -$20,253 | 127.1% | $-23,267 (vs do-nothing $-17,526) |
| $84 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 5/6 | $4,500 | $4,161 | 76% | 81% | +$1,549 | -$31,071 | 195.0% | $-32,266 (vs do-nothing $-26,525) |
| $85 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 6/6 | $3,918 | $3,570 | 74% | 79% | +$905 | -$36,265 | 227.7% | $-36,551 (vs do-nothing $-30,810) |
| $83 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 5/6 | $4,800 | $4,461 | 74% | 80% | +$1,520 | -$31,471 | 197.6% | $-32,666 (vs do-nothing $-26,925) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $79 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.91 | 3/6 | $5,730 | $5,408 | 73% | 80% | +$2,468 | -$20,469 | 128.5% | $-23,483 (vs do-nothing $-17,742) |
| $82 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 4/6 | $4,140 | $3,810 | 72% | 79% | +$1,227 | -$25,477 | 159.9% | $-27,581 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) |
| $81 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 4/6 | $4,560 | $4,230 | 70% | 78% | +$1,332 | -$25,737 | 161.6% | $-27,841 (vs do-nothing $-22,100) |
| $78 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.24 | 2/6 | $4,480 | $4,167 | 69% | 78% | +$1,792 | -$13,780 | 86.5% | $-17,703 (vs do-nothing $-11,962) |
| $80 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 3/6 | $3,870 | $3,548 | 68% | 77% | +$1,191 | -$19,452 | 122.1% | $-22,466 (vs do-nothing $-16,725) |
| $81 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 6/6 | $4,050 | $3,702 | 67% | 75% | +$219 | -$37,645 | 236.3% | $-37,931 (vs do-nothing $-32,190) |
| $80 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 5/6 | $4,588 | $4,249 | 66% | 76% | +$1,207 | -$31,971 | 200.7% | $-33,166 (vs do-nothing $-27,425) |
| $79 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.45 | 3/6 | $4,005 | $3,683 | 65% | 75% | +$1,045 | -$19,707 | 123.7% | $-22,721 (vs do-nothing $-16,980) |
| $80 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 6/6 | $4,350 | $4,002 | 65% | 74% | +$270 | -$38,005 | 238.6% | $-38,291 (vs do-nothing $-32,550) |
| $77 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.61 | 2/6 | $5,220 | $4,907 | 65% | 76% | +$1,922 | -$13,906 | 87.3% | $-17,829 (vs do-nothing $-12,088) |
| $79 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 4/6 | $3,882 | $3,552 | 64% | 74% | +$644 | -$25,857 | 162.3% | $-27,961 (vs do-nothing $-22,220) |
| $79 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 6/6 | $4,575 | $4,227 | 64% | 73% | +$233 | -$38,425 | 241.2% | $-38,711 (vs do-nothing $-32,970) |
| $78 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.85 | 3/6 | $4,365 | $4,043 | 63% | 74% | +$1,249 | -$19,887 | 124.8% | $-22,901 (vs do-nothing $-17,160) |
| $78 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.90 | 4/6 | $4,165 | $3,834 | 62% | 73% | +$672 | -$26,097 | 163.8% | $-28,201 (vs do-nothing $-22,460) |
| $78 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.70 | 5/6 | $4,188 | $3,848 | 62% | 72% | +$339 | -$32,221 | 202.3% | $-33,416 (vs do-nothing $-27,675) |
| $77 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 3/6 | $4,860 | $4,538 | 61% | 73% | +$1,265 | -$20,022 | 125.7% | $-23,036 (vs do-nothing $-17,295) |
| $77 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.90 | 5/6 | $4,312 | $3,973 | 60% | 71% | +$222 | -$32,621 | 204.8% | $-33,816 (vs do-nothing $-28,075) |
| $77 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 4/6 | $4,518 | $4,187 | 60% | 73% | +$1,050 | -$26,297 | 165.1% | $-28,401 (vs do-nothing $-22,660) |
| $76 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 2/6 | $6,000 | $5,687 | 60% | 73% | +$1,987 | -$14,028 | 88.1% | $-17,951 (vs do-nothing $-12,210) |
| $76 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.35 | 5/6 | $4,594 | $4,255 | 59% | 71% | +$249 | -$32,896 | 206.5% | $-34,091 (vs do-nothing $-28,350) |
| $76 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 4/6 | $4,765 | $4,434 | 58% | 71% | +$714 | -$26,557 | 166.7% | $-28,661 (vs do-nothing $-22,920) |
| $76 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 3/6 | $5,085 | $4,763 | 58% | 72% | +$1,134 | -$20,247 | 127.1% | $-23,261 (vs do-nothing $-17,520) |
| $75 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.00 | 4/6 | $4,000 | $3,670 | 57% | 70% | +$311 | -$26,457 | 166.1% | $-28,561 (vs do-nothing $-22,820) |
| $75 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 4/6 | $5,082 | $4,752 | 56% | 71% | +$1,018 | -$26,777 | 168.1% | $-28,881 (vs do-nothing $-23,140) |
| $75 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 3/6 | $5,490 | $5,168 | 56% | 71% | +$1,155 | -$20,412 | 128.1% | $-23,426 (vs do-nothing $-17,685) |
| $74 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.30 | 4/6 | $4,150 | $3,820 | 55% | 69% | +$238 | -$26,737 | 167.8% | $-28,841 (vs do-nothing $-23,100) |
| $75 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.40 | 2/6 | $6,800 | $6,487 | 55% | 71% | +$1,956 | -$14,148 | 88.8% | $-18,071 (vs do-nothing $-12,330) |
| $74 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.70 | 3/6 | $4,076 | $3,755 | 54% | 69% | +$570 | -$20,232 | 127.0% | $-23,246 (vs do-nothing $-17,505) |
| $73 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.75 | 4/6 | $4,375 | $4,045 | 54% | 69% | +$229 | -$26,957 | 169.2% | $-29,061 (vs do-nothing $-23,320) |
| $74 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.60 | 2/6 | $3,960 | $3,647 | 53% | 70% | +$795 | -$13,708 | 86.1% | $-17,631 (vs do-nothing $-11,890) |
| $73 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 3/6 | $4,341 | $4,020 | 52% | 68% | +$582 | -$20,382 | 128.0% | $-23,396 (vs do-nothing $-17,655) |
| $73 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.05 | 2/6 | $4,230 | $3,917 | 50% | 69% | +$771 | -$13,818 | 86.7% | $-17,741 (vs do-nothing $-12,000) |
| $74 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 2/6 | $7,600 | $7,287 | 50% | 69% | +$1,806 | -$14,268 | 89.6% | $-18,191 (vs do-nothing $-12,450) |
| $73 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 1/6 | $4,400 | $4,096 | 45% | 67% | +$967 | -$7,174 | 45.0% | $-12,006 (vs do-nothing $-6,265) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.