6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $147.48 (banked floor $145.38) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $7,110/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $455/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-45,324 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 6 × $82 | 88% | $4,050 | $3,530 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 6 × $86 | 80% | $3,900 | $128 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $91 | 7 Aug | 2d | 22.7% | 98%hist 99% | 4%hist 1% | +0pp | $36 | $540 | -$3,510 | $33,852 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $91 22.7% OTM over spot $74.18 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid) = $36 credit for the 2d cycle → $540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $91.14) 98% EV / mo +$321 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-56/mo median; plan ~$-38/mo after 68% keep · $-406 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-4.9], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,337 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $112 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.24/sh now → $2.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $56 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $91.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $91): -$33,852 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,668 (+$10,656 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,400, the opportunity cost of earning $540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,452, position total $-34,733 (+$10,591 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $95 | 14 Aug | 9d | 28.1% | 90%hist 99% | 21%hist 18% | +3pp | $492 | $1,640 | -$2,410 | $30,996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $95 28.1% OTM over spot $74.18 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.91 mid) = $492 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $95.91) 91% EV / mo +$566 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $402/mo median; plan ~$273/mo after 68% keep · $2,436 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.9-4.5], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,669 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $103 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.45/sh now → $5.27 mid-life (likely $4.31–$7.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 402 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $98 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $52 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $95.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $95): -$30,996 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,812 (+$13,512 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,544, the opportunity cost of earning $1,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,596, position total $-31,877 (+$13,447 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $84 | 7 Aug | 2d | 13.2% | 92%hist 99% | 17%hist 6% | +6pp | $162 | $2,430 | -$1,620 | $37,926 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $84 13.2% OTM over spot $74.18 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.34 mid) = $162 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,430/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $84) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $84.34) 93% EV / mo +$1,104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,073/mo median; plan ~$730/mo after 68% keep · $6,662 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.8-5.3], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,106 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $105 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.11 mid-life (likely $2.24–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 233 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $87 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $84 is $63 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $84.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $84): -$37,926 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,742 (+$6,582 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,474, the opportunity cost of earning $2,430/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,526, position total $-38,807 (+$6,517 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $82 | 7 Aug | 2d | 10.5% | 88%hist 95% | 25%hist 18% | +10pp | $270 | $4,050 | — | $39,018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $82 10.5% OTM over spot $74.18 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.52 mid) = $270 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $82.52) 89% EV / mo +$1,659 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,853/mo median; plan ~$1,260/mo after 68% keep · $11,061 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-5.1], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$967 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $103 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.92/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.28–$4.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 385 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $85 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $65 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $82.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $82): -$39,018 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,834 (+$5,490 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,566, the opportunity cost of earning $4,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,618, position total $-39,899 (+$5,425 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $79 | 7 Aug | 2d | 6.5% | 78%hist 92% | 46%hist 32% | +17pp | $564 | $8,460 | +$4,410 | $40,524 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 6.5% OTM over spot $74.18 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $1.00 mid) = $564 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $80.00) 82% EV / mo +$2,755 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,176/mo median; plan ~$2,160/mo after 68% keep · $18,632 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.0-5.1], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$628 Free roll-up +$11/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $105 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.81/sh now → $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.26–$4.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 818 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $82 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $68 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $80.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$40,524 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,340 (+$3,984 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,072, the opportunity cost of earning $8,460/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,124, position total $-41,405 (+$3,919 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $107 | 14 Aug | 9d | 44.2% | 97%hist 99% | 7%hist 1% | +1pp | $138 | $460 | -$3,440 | $24,150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $107 44.2% OTM over spot $74.18 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.74 mid) = $138 credit for the 9d cycle → $460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $107.74) 97% EV / mo +$217 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-159/mo median; plan ~$-108/mo after 68% keep · $-1,303 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.0-4.7], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,423 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $111 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.39/sh now → $5.93 mid-life (likely $4.51–$7.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 96 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $111 (overshoots $3.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $40 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $107.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $107): -$24,150 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,966 (+$20,358 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,698, the opportunity cost of earning $460/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,750, position total $-25,031 (+$20,293 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $95 | 14 Aug | 9d | 28.1% | 90%hist 99% | 21%hist 18% | +3pp | $492 | $1,640 | -$2,260 | $30,996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $95 28.1% OTM over spot $74.18 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.91 mid) = $492 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $95.91) 91% EV / mo +$566 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $402/mo median; plan ~$273/mo after 68% keep · $2,436 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.9-4.5], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,669 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $103 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.45/sh now → $5.27 mid-life (likely $4.31–$7.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 402 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $98 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $52 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $95.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $95): -$30,996 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,812 (+$13,512 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,544, the opportunity cost of earning $1,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$25,596, position total $-31,877 (+$13,447 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $91 | 14 Aug | 9d | 22.7% | 86%hist 95% | 29%hist 18% | +4pp | $726 | $2,420 | -$1,480 | $33,162 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $91 22.7% OTM over spot $74.18 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.32 mid) = $726 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $92.33) 88% EV / mo +$733 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $696/mo median; plan ~$473/mo after 68% keep · $4,308 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.8-4.4], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,302 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $101 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.13/sh now → $5.05 mid-life (likely $4.78–$7.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 568 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $94 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $56 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.21 collected) or spot ≥ $92.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $91): -$33,162 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,978 (+$11,346 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,710, the opportunity cost of earning $2,420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,762, position total $-34,043 (+$11,281 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $86 | 14 Aug | 9d | 15.9% | 80%hist 92% | 43%hist 32% | +6pp | $1,170 | $3,900 | — | $35,718 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $86 15.9% OTM over spot $74.18 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.11 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $88.11) 83% EV / mo +$994 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 33% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,133/mo median; plan ~$770/mo after 68% keep · $7,480 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,692 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $100 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.74/sh now → $4.77 mid-life (likely $4.69–$7.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,023 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $89 (overshoots $3.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $61 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot ≥ $88.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$35,718 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,534 (+$8,790 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,266, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,318, position total $-36,599 (+$8,725 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $78 | 14 Aug | 9d | 5.1% | 64%hist 78% | 78%hist 59% | +6pp | $2,250 | $7,500 | +$3,600 | $39,438 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 5.1% OTM over spot $74.18 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $4.03 mid) = $2,250 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $82.03) 73% EV / mo +$845 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,664/mo median; plan ~$1,131/mo after 68% keep · $11,213 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [2.0-5.1], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$346 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $104 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.11/sh now → $4.33 mid-life (likely $5.66–$7.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,887 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $81 (overshoots $3.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $69 below CC-SS $147.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.94/sh (~25% of the $3.75 collected) or spot ≥ $82.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $81.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-45,324 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,508 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$39,438 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,254 (+$5,070 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,268 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,986, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.48 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,038, position total $-40,319 (+$5,005 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.012 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$44,508 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,268
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.45 | 6/6 | $4,050 | $3,595 | 88% | 89% | +$1,659 | -$39,018 | 244.9% | $-39,834 (vs do-nothing $-34,566) |
| $81 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 5/6 | $4,125 | $3,681 | 85% | 87% | +$1,451 | -$32,965 | 206.9% | $-34,523 (vs do-nothing $-29,255) |
| $80 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 4/6 | $4,500 | $4,068 | 82% | 84% | +$1,634 | -$26,692 | 167.6% | $-28,992 (vs do-nothing $-23,724) |
| $86 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.95 | 6/6 | $3,900 | $3,445 | 80% | 83% | +$994 | -$35,718 | 224.2% | $-36,534 (vs do-nothing $-31,266) |
| $85 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.12 | 6/6 | $4,240 | $3,785 | 78% | 82% | +$1,007 | -$36,216 | 227.3% | $-37,032 (vs do-nothing $-31,764) |
| $79 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 3/6 | $4,230 | $3,809 | 78% | 82% | +$1,378 | -$20,262 | 127.2% | $-23,304 (vs do-nothing $-18,036) |
| $84 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.35 | 5/6 | $3,917 | $3,473 | 77% | 81% | +$922 | -$30,565 | 191.9% | $-32,123 (vs do-nothing $-26,855) |
| $83 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.58 | 5/6 | $4,300 | $3,856 | 75% | 80% | +$974 | -$30,950 | 194.3% | $-32,508 (vs do-nothing $-27,240) |
| $78 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 3/6 | $5,265 | $4,844 | 73% | 79% | +$1,517 | -$20,493 | 128.6% | $-23,535 (vs do-nothing $-18,267) |
| $82 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.78 | 4/6 | $3,707 | $3,274 | 73% | 78% | +$754 | -$25,080 | 157.4% | $-27,380 (vs do-nothing $-22,112) |
| $81 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 4/6 | $4,000 | $3,568 | 71% | 77% | +$726 | -$25,392 | 159.4% | $-27,692 (vs do-nothing $-22,424) |
| $80 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 4/6 | $4,200 | $3,768 | 69% | 76% | +$573 | -$25,732 | 161.5% | $-28,032 (vs do-nothing $-22,764) |
| $77 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 2/6 | $4,350 | $3,940 | 68% | 76% | +$1,099 | -$13,806 | 86.7% | $-17,590 (vs do-nothing $-12,322) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 6/6 | $3,639 | $3,184 | 67% | 75% | $-9 | -$37,098 | 232.9% | $-37,914 (vs do-nothing $-32,646) |
| $80 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 5/6 | $4,125 | $3,681 | 67% | 75% | +$731 | -$31,540 | 198.0% | $-33,098 (vs do-nothing $-27,830) |
| $79 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 4/6 | $4,600 | $4,168 | 66% | 74% | +$586 | -$26,012 | 163.3% | $-28,312 (vs do-nothing $-23,044) |
| $80 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 6/6 | $3,874 | $3,419 | 66% | 74% | $-29 | -$37,518 | 235.5% | $-38,334 (vs do-nothing $-33,066) |
| $79 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 5/6 | $4,266 | $3,822 | 65% | 74% | +$573 | -$31,965 | 200.7% | $-33,523 (vs do-nothing $-28,255) |
| $79 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 6/6 | $4,109 | $3,654 | 64% | 73% | $-62 | -$37,938 | 238.2% | $-38,754 (vs do-nothing $-33,486) |
| $78 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 3/6 | $3,750 | $3,329 | 64% | 73% | +$423 | -$19,719 | 123.8% | $-22,761 (vs do-nothing $-17,493) |
| $78 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.90 | 4/6 | $3,675 | $3,242 | 63% | 73% | +$465 | -$25,832 | 162.2% | $-28,132 (vs do-nothing $-22,864) |
| $76 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 2/6 | $5,310 | $4,900 | 63% | 73% | +$1,123 | -$13,942 | 87.5% | $-17,726 (vs do-nothing $-12,458) |
| $78 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 5/6 | $3,685 | $3,241 | 62% | 72% | $-27 | -$31,915 | 200.3% | $-33,473 (vs do-nothing $-28,205) |
| $77 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 3/6 | $4,100 | $3,679 | 61% | 72% | +$427 | -$19,914 | 125.0% | $-22,956 (vs do-nothing $-17,688) |
| $77 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 4/6 | $3,938 | $3,505 | 61% | 72% | +$453 | -$26,092 | 163.8% | $-28,392 (vs do-nothing $-23,124) |
| $77 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 5/6 | $3,913 | $3,469 | 61% | 71% | $-48 | -$32,240 | 202.4% | $-33,798 (vs do-nothing $-28,530) |
| $76 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.35 | 5/6 | $4,141 | $3,698 | 59% | 70% | $-82 | -$32,565 | 204.4% | $-34,123 (vs do-nothing $-28,855) |
| $76 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.45 | 3/6 | $4,450 | $4,029 | 59% | 70% | +$401 | -$20,109 | 126.2% | $-23,151 (vs do-nothing $-17,883) |
| $76 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 4/6 | $4,238 | $3,805 | 59% | 71% | +$459 | -$26,332 | 165.3% | $-28,632 (vs do-nothing $-23,364) |
| $75 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 5/6 | $4,435 | $3,991 | 57% | 69% | $-64 | -$32,840 | 206.2% | $-34,398 (vs do-nothing $-29,130) |
| $75 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 2/6 | $6,420 | $6,010 | 57% | 70% | +$1,091 | -$14,068 | 88.3% | $-17,852 (vs do-nothing $-12,584) |
| $75 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 4/6 | $4,575 | $4,142 | 56% | 70% | +$483 | -$26,552 | 166.7% | $-28,852 (vs do-nothing $-23,584) |
| $75 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 3/6 | $5,000 | $4,579 | 56% | 69% | +$543 | -$20,244 | 127.1% | $-23,286 (vs do-nothing $-18,018) |
| $74 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 4/6 | $3,757 | $3,324 | 55% | 68% | $-74 | -$26,512 | 166.4% | $-28,812 (vs do-nothing $-23,544) |
| $74 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.50 | 3/6 | $3,656 | $3,235 | 54% | 69% | +$336 | -$20,094 | 126.1% | $-23,136 (vs do-nothing $-17,868) |
| $74 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.30 | 3/6 | $5,300 | $4,879 | 53% | 68% | +$402 | -$20,454 | 128.4% | $-23,496 (vs do-nothing $-18,228) |
| $73 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.70 | 4/6 | $4,017 | $3,585 | 53% | 68% | +$271 | -$26,712 | 167.7% | $-29,012 (vs do-nothing $-23,744) |
| $73 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.95 | 3/6 | $3,909 | $3,488 | 52% | 68% | +$323 | -$20,259 | 127.2% | $-23,301 (vs do-nothing $-18,033) |
| $74 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.58 | 1/6 | $3,870 | $3,471 | 51% | 67% | +$524 | -$7,090 | 44.5% | $-11,616 (vs do-nothing $-6,348) |
| $73 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 2/6 | $3,867 | $3,457 | 50% | 67% | +$284 | -$13,736 | 86.2% | $-17,520 (vs do-nothing $-12,252) |
| $73 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 1/6 | $4,500 | $4,101 | 44% | 64% | +$356 | -$7,148 | 44.9% | $-11,674 (vs do-nothing $-6,406) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.