6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.21 (banked floor $146.11) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $8,220/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $431/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-46,581 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 6 × $85 | 86% | $4,432 | $663 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $103 | 14 Aug | 8d | 41.2% | 99%hist 99% | 2%hist 1% | +1pp | $126 | $472 | -$3,960 | $26,997 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $103 41.2% OTM over spot $72.95 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.79 mid) = $126 credit for the 8d cycle → $472/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $103.80) 99% EV / mo +$436 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-196/mo median; plan ~$-133/mo after 68% keep · $-1,751 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.9-5.8], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,876 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $106 @ 72% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.43/sh now → $6.67 mid-life (likely $4.60–$8.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 81 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $107 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $45 below CC-SS $148.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $103.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,581 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,692 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $103): -$26,997 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,886 (+$18,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,788 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,098, the opportunity cost of earning $472/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,168, position total $-27,956 (+$18,625 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $89 | 14 Aug | 8d | 22.0% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +8pp | $762 | $2,858 | -$1,575 | $34,761 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $89 22.0% OTM over spot $72.95 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.42 mid) = $762 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,858/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $89) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $90.42) 93% EV / mo +$2,160 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 31% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,170/mo median; plan ~$796/mo after 68% keep · $8,665 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.4-6.3], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,696 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $96 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.15/sh now → $5.76 mid-life (likely $5.10–$8.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 477 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $92 (overshoots $3.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $89 is $59 below CC-SS $148.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $90.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $89)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,581 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,692 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $89): -$34,761 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,650 (+$10,931 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,788 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,862, the opportunity cost of earning $2,858/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,932, position total $-35,720 (+$10,861 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $88 | 14 Aug | 8d | 20.6% | 90%hist 99% | 21%hist 18% | +8pp | $846 | $3,172 | -$1,260 | $35,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $88 20.6% OTM over spot $72.95 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.55 mid) = $846 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,172/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $89.55) 92% EV / mo +$2,332 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,412/mo median; plan ~$960/mo after 68% keep · $9,805 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.1-5.8], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,573 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $96 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.05/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $5.12–$8.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 548 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $91 (overshoots $3.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88 is $60 below CC-SS $148.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.41 collected) or spot ≥ $89.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,581 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,692 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $88): -$35,277 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,166 (+$10,415 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,788 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,378, the opportunity cost of earning $3,172/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,448, position total $-36,236 (+$10,345 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $85 | 14 Aug | 8d | 16.5% | 86%hist 95% | 30%hist 22% | +11pp | $1,182 | $4,432 | — | $36,741 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $85 16.5% OTM over spot $72.95 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.06 mid) = $1,182 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,432/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $87.06) 89% EV / mo +$2,993 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,779/mo median; plan ~$1,209/mo after 68% keep · $13,305 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [2.7-6.0], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,121 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $95 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.78/sh now → $5.50 mid-life (likely $5.31–$8.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 779 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $88 (overshoots $2.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $63 below CC-SS $148.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.97 collected) or spot ≥ $87.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,581 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,692 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $85): -$36,741 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,630 (+$8,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,788 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,842, the opportunity cost of earning $4,432/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,912, position total $-37,700 (+$8,881 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $77 | 14 Aug | 8d | 5.5% | 65%hist 78% | 74%hist 59% | +11pp | $2,400 | $9,000 | +$4,568 | $40,323 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $77 5.5% OTM over spot $72.95 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.33 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $81.33) 76% EV / mo +$2,834 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,189/mo median; plan ~$1,489/mo after 68% keep · $15,433 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.9-5.5], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$592 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $94 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.05/sh now → $4.99 mid-life (likely $6.36–$9.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,773 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $80 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $71 below CC-SS $148.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $81.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $79.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-46,581 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$45,692 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $77): -$40,323 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,212 (+$5,369 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,788 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,424, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.49 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,494, position total $-41,282 (+$5,299 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.012 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$45,692 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,788
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.97 | 6/6 | $4,432 | $4,002 | 86% | 89% | +$2,993 | -$36,741 | 230.6% | $-37,630 (vs do-nothing $-31,842) |
| $84 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.16 | 6/6 | $4,860 | $4,429 | 84% | 88% | +$3,151 | -$37,227 | 233.7% | $-38,116 (vs do-nothing $-32,328) |
| $83 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.39 | 5/6 | $4,481 | $4,058 | 82% | 86% | +$2,797 | -$31,408 | 197.2% | $-33,113 (vs do-nothing $-27,325) |
| $82 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.64 | 5/6 | $4,950 | $4,527 | 80% | 85% | +$2,966 | -$31,783 | 199.5% | $-33,488 (vs do-nothing $-27,700) |
| $81 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.87 | 4/6 | $4,305 | $3,890 | 77% | 84% | +$2,443 | -$25,734 | 161.5% | $-28,256 (vs do-nothing $-22,468) |
| $80 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 4/6 | $4,575 | $4,160 | 75% | 82% | +$2,399 | -$26,062 | 163.6% | $-28,584 (vs do-nothing $-22,796) |
| $79 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 4/6 | $5,025 | $4,610 | 72% | 81% | +$2,493 | -$26,342 | 165.4% | $-28,864 (vs do-nothing $-23,076) |
| $80 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 6/6 | $4,920 | $4,489 | 70% | 78% | +$1,658 | -$38,463 | 241.5% | $-39,352 (vs do-nothing $-33,564) |
| $78 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 4/6 | $5,250 | $4,835 | 69% | 79% | +$2,317 | -$26,682 | 167.5% | $-29,204 (vs do-nothing $-23,416) |
| $79 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 5/6 | $4,400 | $3,977 | 68% | 77% | +$1,400 | -$32,403 | 203.4% | $-34,108 (vs do-nothing $-28,320) |
| $79 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.10 | 6/6 | $4,173 | $3,742 | 67% | 76% | +$1,034 | -$38,463 | 241.5% | $-39,352 (vs do-nothing $-33,564) |
| $78 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 5/6 | $4,750 | $4,327 | 66% | 76% | +$1,445 | -$32,728 | 205.4% | $-34,433 (vs do-nothing $-28,645) |
| $77 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 3/6 | $4,500 | $4,093 | 65% | 76% | +$1,417 | -$20,162 | 126.6% | $-23,500 (vs do-nothing $-17,712) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 6/6 | $4,418 | $3,987 | 65% | 75% | +$1,018 | -$38,883 | 244.1% | $-39,772 (vs do-nothing $-33,984) |
| $77 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 4/6 | $4,120 | $3,705 | 64% | 75% | +$1,211 | -$26,422 | 165.9% | $-28,944 (vs do-nothing $-23,156) |
| $77 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 6/6 | $4,705 | $4,274 | 63% | 74% | +$1,024 | -$39,273 | 246.5% | $-40,162 (vs do-nothing $-34,374) |
| $76 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 3/6 | $4,950 | $4,543 | 63% | 75% | +$1,486 | -$20,342 | 127.7% | $-23,680 (vs do-nothing $-17,892) |
| $76 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.55 | 4/6 | $4,440 | $4,025 | 62% | 74% | +$1,244 | -$26,662 | 167.4% | $-29,184 (vs do-nothing $-23,396) |
| $76 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.20 | 5/6 | $4,227 | $3,804 | 61% | 74% | +$911 | -$33,003 | 207.2% | $-34,708 (vs do-nothing $-28,920) |
| $75 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.85 | 3/6 | $5,456 | $5,049 | 60% | 73% | +$1,574 | -$20,507 | 128.7% | $-23,845 (vs do-nothing $-18,057) |
| $75 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.95 | 4/6 | $4,760 | $4,345 | 59% | 73% | +$1,255 | -$26,902 | 168.9% | $-29,424 (vs do-nothing $-23,636) |
| $75 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.65 | 5/6 | $4,534 | $4,111 | 59% | 73% | +$953 | -$33,278 | 208.9% | $-34,983 (vs do-nothing $-29,195) |
| $74 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.15 | 5/6 | $4,875 | $4,452 | 57% | 72% | +$1,011 | -$33,528 | 210.5% | $-35,233 (vs do-nothing $-29,445) |
| $74 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 4/6 | $5,120 | $4,705 | 57% | 72% | +$1,282 | -$27,122 | 170.3% | $-29,644 (vs do-nothing $-23,856) |
| $74 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 3/6 | $5,906 | $5,499 | 57% | 72% | +$1,566 | -$20,687 | 129.9% | $-24,025 (vs do-nothing $-18,237) |
| $73 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.55 | 4/6 | $4,118 | $3,703 | 55% | 71% | +$787 | -$27,062 | 169.9% | $-29,584 (vs do-nothing $-23,796) |
| $73 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.85 | 3/6 | $4,110 | $3,703 | 54% | 71% | +$964 | -$20,507 | 128.7% | $-23,845 (vs do-nothing $-18,057) |
| $73 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.70 | 2/6 | $4,275 | $3,876 | 54% | 71% | +$1,049 | -$13,901 | 87.3% | $-18,056 (vs do-nothing $-12,268) |
| $72 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.05 | 4/6 | $4,391 | $3,976 | 53% | 70% | +$806 | -$27,262 | 171.1% | $-29,784 (vs do-nothing $-23,996) |
| $72 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.35 | 3/6 | $4,410 | $4,003 | 52% | 70% | +$978 | -$20,657 | 129.7% | $-23,995 (vs do-nothing $-18,207) |
| $72 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 2/6 | $4,725 | $4,326 | 50% | 70% | +$1,137 | -$13,981 | 87.8% | $-18,136 (vs do-nothing $-12,348) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.