6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.16 (banked floor $145.67) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $4,241/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $199/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,197 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $0.65 | $390 | 2026-09-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 2d | 6 × $73 | 90% | $2,160 | $1,969 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 18 Sep 2026 · 9d | 6 × $73 | 78% | $2,220 | $557 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $80 | 11 Sep | 2d | 19.3% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +1pp | $15 | $225 | -$1,935 | $20,733 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $80 19.3% OTM over spot $67.08 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $15 credit for the 2d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $80.06) 99% EV / mo +$188 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10/mo median; plan ~$7/mo after 68% keep · $88 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.3-6.5], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$408 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $92 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.99/sh now → $1.41 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $69 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $80.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $80): -$20,733 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $105): -$13,230 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,726 (+$19,471 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,503, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,006, position total $-40,219 (+$11,978 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $79 | 18 Sep | 9d | 17.8% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +1pp | $240 | $800 | -$1,360 | $41,856 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 17.8% OTM over spot $67.08 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.47 mid) = $240 credit for the 9d cycle → $800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $79.47) 91% EV / mo +$311 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $323/mo median; plan ~$220/mo after 68% keep · $2,599 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.5-6.4], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,290 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $85 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 302 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $81 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $70 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $79.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$41,856 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,619 (+$11,578 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,396, the opportunity cost of earning $800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,402, position total $-43,633 (+$8,564 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $74 | 11 Sep | 2d | 10.3% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 13% | +4pp | $95 | $1,425 | -$735 | $37,485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $74 10.3% OTM over spot $67.08 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $95 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,425/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $74.23) 94% EV / mo +$854 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $878/mo median; plan ~$597/mo after 68% keep · $6,719 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.1-6.5], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$557 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $87 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 174 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $76 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $75 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $74.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $74): -$37,485 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $105): -$4,410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,658 (+$11,539 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,435, the opportunity cost of earning $1,425/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,940, position total $-45,165 (+$7,032 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $73 | 11 Sep | 2d | 8.8% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 13% | +6pp | $144 | $2,160 | — | $45,552 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $73 8.8% OTM over spot $67.08 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $144 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $73) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $73.30) 91% EV / mo +$1,080 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,238/mo median; plan ~$842/mo after 68% keep · $9,399 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [3.2-6.5], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$628 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $87 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $75 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $73 is $76 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $73.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $73)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $73): -$45,552 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,315 (+$7,882 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,092, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,098, position total $-47,329 (+$4,868 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $71 | 11 Sep | 2d | 5.8% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 31% | +12pp | $294 | $4,410 | +$2,250 | $46,602 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $71 5.8% OTM over spot $67.08 11 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.53 mid) = $294 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,410/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $71) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $71.53) 85% EV / mo +$1,675 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,321/mo median; plan ~$1,578/mo after 68% keep · $16,246 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.9-6.0], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$456 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $87 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.77/sh now → $1.25 mid-life (likely $1.38–$2.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 633 simulated challenges: the $71 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $73 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $71 is $78 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $71.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $71)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $71): -$46,602 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,365 (+$6,832 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,142, the opportunity cost of earning $4,410/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,148, position total $-48,379 (+$3,818 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $90 | 18 Sep | 9d | 34.2% | 98%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +1pp | $60 | $200 | -$2,020 | $35,436 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 34.2% OTM over spot $67.08 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $60 credit for the 9d cycle → $200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $90.12) 98% EV / mo +$113 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 19% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-51/mo median; plan ~$-35/mo after 68% keep · $-448 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.4 mo [2.5-6.4], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,683 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $94 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $59 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $90.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$35,436 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,199 (+$17,998 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,976, the opportunity cost of earning $200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-37,231 (+$14,966 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $79 | 18 Sep | 9d | 17.8% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +1pp | $240 | $800 | -$1,420 | $41,856 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 17.8% OTM over spot $67.08 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.47 mid) = $240 credit for the 9d cycle → $800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $79.47) 91% EV / mo +$311 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $323/mo median; plan ~$220/mo after 68% keep · $2,599 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.5-6.4], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,290 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $85 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 302 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $81 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $70 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $79.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$41,856 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,619 (+$11,578 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,396, the opportunity cost of earning $800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,402, position total $-43,633 (+$8,564 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $75 | 18 Sep | 9d | 11.8% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 31% | +3pp | $480 | $1,600 | -$620 | $44,016 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 11.8% OTM over spot $67.08 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.85 mid) = $480 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $75.85) 85% EV / mo +$506 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $657/mo median; plan ~$447/mo after 68% keep · $5,510 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.2-6.7], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$973 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $83 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.42/sh now → $2.42 mid-life (likely $2.29–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 678 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $77 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $75.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$44,016 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,779 (+$9,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,556, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,562, position total $-45,793 (+$6,404 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $73 | 18 Sep | 9d | 8.8% | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 39% | +4pp | $666 | $2,220 | — | $45,030 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $73 8.8% OTM over spot $67.08 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.18 mid) = $666 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $73) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $74.18) 81% EV / mo +$568 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $840/mo median; plan ~$571/mo after 68% keep · $7,084 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.6-6.4], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$748 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $83 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.33/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $2.45–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,009 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $75 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $73 is $76 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $74.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $73)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $73): -$45,030 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,793 (+$8,404 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,570, the opportunity cost of earning $2,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,576, position total $-46,807 (+$5,390 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $69 | 18 Sep | 9d | 2.9% | 62%hist 65% | 80%hist 64% | +6pp | $1,320 | $4,400 | +$2,180 | $46,776 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $69 2.9% OTM over spot $67.08 18 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.26 mid) = $1,320 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $69) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $71.26) 72% EV / mo +$745 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,213/mo median; plan ~$825/mo after 68% keep · $10,382 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.6-7.2], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $83 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $2.93–$3.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,888 simulated challenges: the $69 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $71 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $69 is $80 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.20 collected) or spot ≥ $71.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $69)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,197 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$53,434 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $69): -$46,776 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,539 (+$6,658 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,316, the opportunity cost of earning $4,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $90.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,322, position total $-48,553 (+$3,644 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.085 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$53,434 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-25,223
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $73 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.24 | 6/6 | $2,160 | $1,961 | 90% | 91% | +$1,080 | -$45,552 | 286.0% | $-44,315 (vs do-nothing $-19,092) |
| $72 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.35 | 5/6 | $2,625 | $2,437 | 87% | 88% | +$1,220 | -$38,405 | 241.1% | $-41,578 (vs do-nothing $-16,355) |
| $71 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.49 | 3/6 | $2,205 | $2,039 | 82% | 85% | +$838 | -$23,301 | 146.3% | $-35,294 (vs do-nothing $-10,071) |
| $73 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.11 | 6/6 | $2,220 | $2,021 | 78% | 81% | +$568 | -$45,030 | 282.7% | $-43,793 (vs do-nothing $-18,570) |
| $70 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.66 | 3/6 | $2,970 | $2,804 | 75% | 80% | +$835 | -$23,550 | 147.8% | $-35,543 (vs do-nothing $-10,320) |
| $72 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.31 | 5/6 | $2,183 | $1,995 | 74% | 79% | +$495 | -$37,925 | 238.1% | $-41,098 (vs do-nothing $-15,875) |
| $73 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.89 | 6/6 | $2,126 | $1,927 | 73% | 79% | +$489 | -$44,562 | 279.7% | $-43,325 (vs do-nothing $-18,102) |
| $71 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.55 | 5/6 | $2,583 | $2,395 | 71% | 77% | +$519 | -$38,305 | 240.5% | $-41,478 (vs do-nothing $-16,255) |
| $72 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.15 | 6/6 | $2,419 | $2,219 | 70% | 77% | +$516 | -$45,006 | 282.5% | $-43,769 (vs do-nothing $-18,546) |
| $69 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.92 | 2/6 | $2,760 | $2,606 | 68% | 75% | +$600 | -$15,848 | 99.5% | $-32,251 (vs do-nothing $-7,028) |
| $71 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.44 | 5/6 | $2,288 | $2,099 | 67% | 75% | +$448 | -$37,860 | 237.7% | $-41,033 (vs do-nothing $-15,810) |
| $70 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.84 | 4/6 | $2,453 | $2,276 | 66% | 74% | +$442 | -$30,928 | 194.2% | $-38,511 (vs do-nothing $-13,288) |
| $71 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 6/6 | $2,426 | $2,227 | 66% | 74% | +$412 | -$45,036 | 282.7% | $-43,799 (vs do-nothing $-18,576) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.75 | 5/6 | $2,578 | $2,390 | 64% | 73% | +$450 | -$38,205 | 239.8% | $-41,378 (vs do-nothing $-16,155) |
| $70 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 5/6 | $2,348 | $2,160 | 63% | 73% | +$452 | -$37,780 | 237.2% | $-40,953 (vs do-nothing $-15,730) |
| $69 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.20 | 3/6 | $2,200 | $2,034 | 62% | 72% | +$372 | -$23,388 | 146.8% | $-35,381 (vs do-nothing $-10,158) |
| $69 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.05 | 4/6 | $2,288 | $2,111 | 60% | 71% | +$323 | -$30,844 | 193.6% | $-38,427 (vs do-nothing $-13,204) |
| $68 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.23 | 2/6 | $3,690 | $3,536 | 60% | 71% | +$597 | -$15,986 | 100.4% | $-32,389 (vs do-nothing $-7,166) |
| $69 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 5/6 | $2,478 | $2,290 | 60% | 71% | +$341 | -$38,180 | 239.7% | $-41,353 (vs do-nothing $-16,130) |
| $68 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.52 | 3/6 | $2,520 | $2,354 | 57% | 69% | +$318 | -$23,592 | 148.1% | $-35,585 (vs do-nothing $-10,362) |
| $68 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 4/6 | $2,588 | $2,411 | 57% | 69% | +$327 | -$31,084 | 195.1% | $-38,667 (vs do-nothing $-13,444) |
| $68 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.35 | 4/6 | $2,270 | $2,093 | 57% | 70% | +$348 | -$30,724 | 192.9% | $-38,307 (vs do-nothing $-13,084) |
| $67 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.65 | 4/6 | $2,426 | $2,249 | 53% | 68% | +$272 | -$31,004 | 194.6% | $-38,587 (vs do-nothing $-13,364) |
| $67 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.85 | 3/6 | $2,166 | $2,000 | 53% | 68% | +$223 | -$23,493 | 147.5% | $-35,486 (vs do-nothing $-10,263) |
| $67 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.95 | 3/6 | $2,950 | $2,784 | 52% | 67% | +$313 | -$23,763 | 149.2% | $-35,756 (vs do-nothing $-10,533) |
| $67 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.61 | 1/6 | $2,415 | $2,272 | 50% | 66% | +$212 | -$8,055 | 50.6% | $-28,868 (vs do-nothing $-3,645) |
| $66 | 23d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.10 | 4/6 | $2,661 | $2,484 | 50% | 67% | +$253 | -$31,224 | 196.0% | $-38,807 (vs do-nothing $-13,584) |
| $66 | 16d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.35 | 3/6 | $2,447 | $2,281 | 49% | 66% | +$229 | -$23,643 | 148.4% | $-35,636 (vs do-nothing $-10,413) |
| $66 | 9d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.40 | 2/6 | $2,267 | $2,112 | 47% | 64% | +$177 | -$15,952 | 100.1% | $-32,355 (vs do-nothing $-7,132) |
| $66 | 2d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.06 | 1/6 | $3,090 | $2,947 | 41% | 61% | +$79 | -$8,110 | 50.9% | $-28,923 (vs do-nothing $-3,700) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.