6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.30 (banked floor $145.81) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $3,804/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $418/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,893 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $0.65 | $390 | 2026-09-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 8d | 6 × $70 | 79% | $2,002 | $664 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $78 | 18 Sep | 8d | 21.1% | 94%hist 96% | 12%hist 13% | +1pp | $132 | $495 | -$1,508 | $42,650 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 21.1% OTM over spot $64.43 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $132 credit for the 8d cycle → $495/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $78.26) 95% EV / mo +$241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-52/mo median; plan ~$-35/mo after 68% keep · $-451 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.8-6.7], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,209 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $84 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.16/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $1.67–$3.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $80 (overshoots $1.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $71 below CC-SS $149.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $78.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,893 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,517 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$42,650 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,026 (+$7,867 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-31,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,086, the opportunity cost of earning $495/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.96 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,044, position total $-44,742 (+$8,151 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $75 | 18 Sep | 8d | 16.4% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +2pp | $222 | $832 | -$1,170 | $44,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 16.4% OTM over spot $64.43 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.40 mid) = $222 credit for the 8d cycle → $832/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $75.40) 91% EV / mo +$351 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $146/mo median; plan ~$99/mo after 68% keep · $1,204 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,067 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $82 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.04/sh now → $2.15 mid-life (likely $1.78–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $77 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $75.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,893 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,517 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$44,360 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,736 (+$6,157 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-31,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,796, the opportunity cost of earning $832/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.96 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,754, position total $-46,452 (+$6,441 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $72 | 18 Sep | 8d | 11.7% | 85%hist 86% | 32%hist 31% | +3pp | $366 | $1,372 | -$630 | $46,016 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $72 11.7% OTM over spot $64.43 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.66 mid) = $366 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,372/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $72.66) 86% EV / mo +$417 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $357/mo median; plan ~$242/mo after 68% keep · $3,089 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$872 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $80 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.92/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $1.97–$3.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 625 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $74 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $77 below CC-SS $149.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $72.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,893 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,517 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $72): -$46,016 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,392 (+$4,501 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-31,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,452, the opportunity cost of earning $1,372/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.96 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,410, position total $-48,108 (+$4,785 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $70 | 18 Sep | 8d | 8.6% | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 39% | +3pp | $534 | $2,002 | — | $47,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $70 8.6% OTM over spot $64.43 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.94 mid) = $534 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,002/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $70.94) 82% EV / mo +$474 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $547/mo median; plan ~$372/mo after 68% keep · $4,725 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$669 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $80 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.84/sh now → $2.01 mid-life (likely $2.05–$3.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 946 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $72 (overshoots $1.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $149.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $70.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,893 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,517 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $70): -$47,048 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,424 (+$3,469 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-31,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,484, the opportunity cost of earning $2,002/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.96 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,442, position total $-49,140 (+$3,753 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $66 | 18 Sep | 8d | 2.4% | 61%hist 65% | 81%hist 79% | +4pp | $1,116 | $4,185 | +$2,182 | $48,866 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $66 2.4% OTM over spot $64.43 18 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.93 mid) = $1,116 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,185/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $66) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $67.93) 71% EV / mo +$381 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $921/mo median; plan ~$626/mo after 68% keep · $8,055 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [4.0-7.0], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$19 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $81 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.67/sh now → $1.89 mid-life (likely $2.50–$3.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,929 simulated challenges: the $66 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $68 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $66 is $83 below CC-SS $149.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.86 collected) or spot ≥ $67.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $66)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $80.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,893 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,517 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $66): -$48,866 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,242 (+$1,651 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-31,940 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,302, the opportunity cost of earning $4,185/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.96 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,260, position total $-50,958 (+$1,935 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.992 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,517 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-31,940
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.89 | 6/6 | $2,002 | $1,584 | 79% | 82% | +$474 | -$47,048 | 295.3% | $-49,424 (vs do-nothing $-17,484) |
| $69 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.07 | 5/6 | $2,006 | $1,594 | 75% | 79% | +$396 | -$39,617 | 248.7% | $-46,920 (vs do-nothing $-14,980) |
| $70 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.62 | 6/6 | $1,944 | $1,526 | 74% | 79% | +$446 | -$46,610 | 292.6% | $-48,986 (vs do-nothing $-17,046) |
| $68 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.27 | 4/6 | $1,905 | $1,499 | 71% | 76% | +$282 | -$32,014 | 201.0% | $-44,244 (vs do-nothing $-12,304) |
| $69 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.83 | 6/6 | $2,196 | $1,778 | 71% | 77% | +$398 | -$47,084 | 295.6% | $-49,460 (vs do-nothing $-17,520) |
| $69 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.56 | 6/6 | $2,095 | $1,676 | 68% | 75% | +$341 | -$46,646 | 292.8% | $-49,022 (vs do-nothing $-17,082) |
| $68 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.14 | 5/6 | $2,140 | $1,728 | 67% | 75% | +$352 | -$39,582 | 248.5% | $-46,885 (vs do-nothing $-14,945) |
| $67 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.57 | 4/6 | $2,355 | $1,949 | 66% | 74% | +$320 | -$32,294 | 202.7% | $-44,524 (vs do-nothing $-12,584) |
| $68 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.84 | 5/6 | $1,936 | $1,524 | 65% | 74% | +$270 | -$39,232 | 246.3% | $-46,535 (vs do-nothing $-14,595) |
| $67 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.40 | 4/6 | $1,920 | $1,514 | 63% | 72% | +$225 | -$31,962 | 200.6% | $-44,192 (vs do-nothing $-12,252) |
| $67 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.15 | 5/6 | $2,148 | $1,736 | 62% | 72% | +$252 | -$39,577 | 248.4% | $-46,880 (vs do-nothing $-14,940) |
| $66 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.86 | 3/6 | $2,092 | $1,692 | 61% | 71% | +$191 | -$24,433 | 153.4% | $-41,591 (vs do-nothing $-9,651) |
| $66 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.76 | 4/6 | $2,208 | $1,802 | 59% | 70% | +$213 | -$32,218 | 202.2% | $-44,448 (vs do-nothing $-12,508) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $66 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 4/6 | $1,909 | $1,503 | 59% | 70% | +$188 | -$31,922 | 200.4% | $-44,152 (vs do-nothing $-12,212) |
| $65 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 4/6 | $2,127 | $1,721 | 55% | 69% | +$180 | -$32,162 | 201.9% | $-44,392 (vs do-nothing $-12,452) |
| $65 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.24 | 3/6 | $2,520 | $2,120 | 55% | 68% | +$169 | -$24,619 | 154.5% | $-41,777 (vs do-nothing $-9,837) |
| $65 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 4/6 | $2,520 | $2,114 | 55% | 68% | +$222 | -$32,462 | 203.8% | $-44,692 (vs do-nothing $-12,752) |
| $64 | 22d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.35 | 4/6 | $2,373 | $1,967 | 52% | 67% | +$176 | -$32,382 | 203.3% | $-44,612 (vs do-nothing $-12,672) |
| $64 | 15d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.60 | 3/6 | $2,160 | $1,760 | 51% | 66% | +$160 | -$24,511 | 153.9% | $-41,669 (vs do-nothing $-9,729) |
| $64 | 8d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.68 | 2/6 | $2,010 | $1,616 | 50% | 65% | +$91 | -$16,525 | 103.7% | $-38,610 (vs do-nothing $-6,670) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.