6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.11 (banked floor $145.00) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $4,533/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $447/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-53,934 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 6 × $68 | 84% | $2,295 | $1,447 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 6 × $67 | 73% | $2,356 | $83 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $75 | 18 Sep | 4d | 19.9% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | +1pp | $60 | $450 | -$1,845 | $44,407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 19.9% OTM over spot $62.53 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.11 mid) = $60 credit for the 4d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $75.11) 97% EV / mo +$294 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-93/mo median; plan ~$-63/mo after 68% keep · $-807 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.4-6.2], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,023 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $83 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.55/sh now → $1.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $75.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$44,407 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,015 (+$6,919 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,946, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,382, position total $-46,583 (+$7,351 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $70 | 18 Sep | 4d | 11.9% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +4pp | $186 | $1,395 | -$900 | $47,281 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $70 11.9% OTM over spot $62.53 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.33 mid) = $186 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,395/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $70.33) 91% EV / mo +$704 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $488/mo median; plan ~$332/mo after 68% keep · $4,115 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [4.5-7.5], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$825 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $79 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.38/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 265 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $72 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $70.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $70): -$47,281 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,889 (+$4,045 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,820, the opportunity cost of earning $1,395/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,256, position total $-49,457 (+$4,477 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $69 | 18 Sep | 4d | 10.3% | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 26% | +6pp | $234 | $1,755 | -$540 | $47,833 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $69 10.3% OTM over spot $62.53 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.43 mid) = $234 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,755/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $69) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $69.42) 89% EV / mo +$787 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $688/mo median; plan ~$468/mo after 68% keep · $5,607 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.5-7.0], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$763 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $78 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 444 simulated challenges: the $69 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $71 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $69 is $80 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $69.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $69)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $69): -$47,833 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,441 (+$3,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,372, the opportunity cost of earning $1,755/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,808, position total $-50,009 (+$3,925 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $68 | 18 Sep | 4d | 8.7% | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | +5pp | $306 | $2,295 | — | $48,361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $68 8.7% OTM over spot $62.53 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.53 mid) = $306 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $68) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $68.53) 86% EV / mo +$935 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $862/mo median; plan ~$586/mo after 68% keep · $7,223 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.9-6.7], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$676 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $79 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.66–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 550 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $70 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $68 is $81 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $68.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $68): -$48,361 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,969 (+$2,965 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,900, the opportunity cost of earning $2,295/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,336, position total $-50,537 (+$3,397 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $65 | 18 Sep | 4d | 4.0% | 69%hist 65% | 63%hist 59% | +9pp | $684 | $5,130 | +$2,835 | $49,783 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $65 4.0% OTM over spot $62.53 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.16 mid) = $684 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,130/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $66.16) 76% EV / mo +$1,429 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 21% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,635/mo median; plan ~$1,111/mo after 68% keep · $13,647 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.6-6.8], measured ONLY among the 21% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$255 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $80 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.21/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.86–$3.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,314 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $66 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $65 is $84 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $66.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $65): -$49,783 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,391 (+$1,543 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,322, the opportunity cost of earning $5,130/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,758, position total $-51,959 (+$1,975 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $75 | 25 Sep | 11d | 19.9% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | +2pp | $175 | $477 | -$1,879 | $36,880 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $75 19.9% OTM over spot $62.53 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.40 mid) = $175 credit for the 11d cycle → $477/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $75.39) 93% EV / mo +$222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-112/mo median; plan ~$-76/mo after 68% keep · $-937 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,182 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $79 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.84/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $2.15–$3.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 290 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $77 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $75.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $75): -$36,880 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$3,910 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,399 (+$10,535 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,330, the opportunity cost of earning $477/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,860, position total $-45,060 (+$8,874 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $74 | 25 Sep | 11d | 18.3% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +0pp | $246 | $671 | -$1,685 | $44,821 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $74 18.3% OTM over spot $62.53 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $246 credit for the 11d cycle → $671/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $74.48) 92% EV / mo +$293 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 9% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1/mo median; plan ~$-0/mo after 68% keep · $-5 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo, measured ONLY among the 9% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,360 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $78 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.78/sh now → $2.68 mid-life (likely $2.29–$3.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 348 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $76 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $75 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $74.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $74): -$44,821 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,429 (+$6,505 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,360, the opportunity cost of earning $671/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,796, position total $-46,997 (+$6,937 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $69 | 25 Sep | 11d | 10.3% | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 39% | +3pp | $600 | $1,636 | -$720 | $47,467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $69 10.3% OTM over spot $62.53 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.06 mid) = $600 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,636/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $69) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $70.06) 83% EV / mo +$510 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 6% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $349/mo median; plan ~$238/mo after 68% keep · $3,026 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$898 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $76 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.53/sh now → $2.50 mid-life (likely $2.53–$3.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 998 simulated challenges: the $69 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $71 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $69 is $80 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $70.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $69)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $69): -$47,467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,075 (+$3,859 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,006, the opportunity cost of earning $1,636/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,442, position total $-49,643 (+$4,291 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $67 | 25 Sep | 11d | 7.1% | 73%hist 84% | 56%hist 44% | +4pp | $864 | $2,356 | — | $48,403 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $67 7.1% OTM over spot $62.53 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.49 mid) = $864 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,356/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $67) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $68.49) 79% EV / mo +$618 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $563/mo median; plan ~$383/mo after 68% keep · $4,924 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$590 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $76 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.43/sh now → $2.42 mid-life (likely $2.72–$3.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,313 simulated challenges: the $67 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $68 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $67 is $82 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.44 collected) or spot ≥ $68.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $67)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $67): -$48,403 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,011 (+$2,923 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,942, the opportunity cost of earning $2,356/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,378, position total $-50,579 (+$3,355 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $63 | 25 Sep | 11d | 0.8% | 55%hist 70% | 95%hist 90% | +4pp | $1,662 | $4,533 | +$2,176 | $50,005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $63 0.8% OTM over spot $62.53 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $2.87 mid) = $1,662 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $63) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $65.87) 69% EV / mo +$644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 7% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~12.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $826/mo median; plan ~$561/mo after 68% keep · $7,281 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$294 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $76 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.22/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $3.20–$4.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,330 simulated challenges: the $63 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $65 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $63 is $86 below CC-SS $149.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.69/sh (~25% of the $2.77 collected) or spot ≥ $65.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $63)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $76.09 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,934 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,325 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $63): -$50,005 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,613 (+$1,321 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-26,069 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,544, the opportunity cost of earning $4,533/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.07 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,980, position total $-52,181 (+$1,753 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.988 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$51,325 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-26,069
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $68 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.51 | 6/6 | $2,295 | $1,848 | 84% | 86% | +$935 | -$48,361 | 303.6% | $-50,969 (vs do-nothing $-24,900) |
| $67 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.68 | 5/6 | $2,550 | $2,106 | 80% | 84% | +$957 | -$40,715 | 255.6% | $-47,234 (vs do-nothing $-21,165) |
| $66 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.87 | 4/6 | $2,610 | $2,168 | 75% | 80% | +$829 | -$32,896 | 206.5% | $-43,325 (vs do-nothing $-17,256) |
| $67 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.44 | 6/6 | $2,356 | $1,909 | 73% | 79% | +$618 | -$48,403 | 303.8% | $-51,011 (vs do-nothing $-24,942) |
| $65 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.14 | 3/6 | $2,565 | $2,126 | 69% | 76% | +$715 | -$24,891 | 156.3% | $-39,230 (vs do-nothing $-13,161) |
| $66 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.71 | 5/6 | $2,332 | $1,887 | 69% | 76% | +$543 | -$40,700 | 255.5% | $-47,219 (vs do-nothing $-21,150) |
| $66 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.43 | 6/6 | $2,430 | $1,983 | 66% | 75% | +$482 | -$48,409 | 303.9% | $-51,017 (vs do-nothing $-24,948) |
| $65 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.01 | 5/6 | $2,741 | $2,296 | 65% | 74% | +$545 | -$41,050 | 257.7% | $-47,569 (vs do-nothing $-21,500) |
| $65 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.75 | 5/6 | $2,292 | $1,847 | 63% | 73% | +$396 | -$40,680 | 255.4% | $-47,199 (vs do-nothing $-21,130) |
| $64 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.42 | 3/6 | $3,195 | $2,756 | 63% | 73% | +$666 | -$25,107 | 157.6% | $-39,446 (vs do-nothing $-13,377) |
| $65 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.30 | 6/6 | $2,376 | $1,929 | 62% | 73% | +$371 | -$48,487 | 304.4% | $-51,095 (vs do-nothing $-25,026) |
| $64 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.36 | 4/6 | $2,575 | $2,133 | 60% | 71% | +$432 | -$33,100 | 207.8% | $-43,529 (vs do-nothing $-17,460) |
| $64 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 5/6 | $2,667 | $2,222 | 59% | 71% | +$462 | -$40,955 | 257.1% | $-47,474 (vs do-nothing $-21,405) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $64 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.70 | 6/6 | $2,664 | $2,217 | 59% | 71% | +$389 | -$48,847 | 306.6% | $-51,455 (vs do-nothing $-25,386) |
| $63 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.81 | 2/6 | $2,715 | $2,279 | 55% | 69% | +$448 | -$16,860 | 105.8% | $-35,109 (vs do-nothing $-9,040) |
| $63 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.15 | 5/6 | $2,490 | $2,046 | 55% | 69% | +$344 | -$40,980 | 257.3% | $-47,499 (vs do-nothing $-21,430) |
| $63 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.40 | 4/6 | $2,267 | $1,825 | 55% | 69% | +$225 | -$33,084 | 207.7% | $-43,513 (vs do-nothing $-17,444) |
| $63 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.77 | 3/6 | $2,266 | $1,827 | 55% | 69% | +$322 | -$25,002 | 157.0% | $-39,341 (vs do-nothing $-13,272) |
| $62 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.55 | 5/6 | $2,730 | $2,286 | 52% | 68% | +$309 | -$41,280 | 259.1% | $-47,799 (vs do-nothing $-21,730) |
| $62 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 4/6 | $2,600 | $2,158 | 51% | 67% | +$248 | -$33,284 | 208.9% | $-43,713 (vs do-nothing $-17,644) |
| $62 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 3/6 | $2,577 | $2,138 | 50% | 66% | +$244 | -$25,188 | 158.1% | $-39,527 (vs do-nothing $-13,458) |
| $62 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.27 | 2/6 | $3,405 | $2,969 | 47% | 65% | +$417 | -$16,968 | 106.5% | $-35,217 (vs do-nothing $-9,148) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.