6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.58 (banked floor $144.48) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $3,558/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $387/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-52,656 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 5 × $70 | 86% | $2,000 | $1,518 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 6 × $70 | 77% | $2,016 | $227 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $76 | 18 Sep | 3d | 17.9% | 97%hist 96% | 6%hist 3% | +1pp | $40 | $400 | -$1,600 | $36,252 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $76 17.9% OTM over spot $64.44 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $40 credit for the 3d cycle → $400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $76.08) 97% EV / mo +$252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-51/mo median; plan ~$-35/mo after 68% keep · $-454 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.4-6.5], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$751 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $86 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $73 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $76.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $76): -$36,252 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$3,857 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,976 (+$10,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,965, the opportunity cost of earning $400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,550, position total $-44,272 (+$8,384 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $76 | 25 Sep | 10d | 17.9% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +3pp | $228 | $684 | -$1,316 | $43,323 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $76 17.9% OTM over spot $64.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.42 mid) = $228 credit for the 10d cycle → $684/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $76.42) 92% EV / mo +$301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $79/mo median; plan ~$53/mo after 68% keep · $646 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,312 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.63/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 301 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $78 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $73 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $76.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $76): -$43,323 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,189 (+$7,467 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,178, the opportunity cost of earning $684/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,680, position total $-45,403 (+$7,253 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $72 | 18 Sep | 3d | 11.7% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +5pp | $132 | $1,320 | -$680 | $45,819 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $72 11.7% OTM over spot $64.44 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.23 mid) = $132 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $72.23) 92% EV / mo +$644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $570/mo median; plan ~$388/mo after 68% keep · $4,213 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.5-6.9], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$767 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $83 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $74 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $77 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $72.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $72): -$45,819 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,685 (+$4,971 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,674, the opportunity cost of earning $1,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,176, position total $-47,899 (+$4,757 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $70 | 18 Sep | 3d | 8.6% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 26% | +5pp | $200 | $2,000 | — | $39,092 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $70 8.6% OTM over spot $64.44 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.43 mid) = $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $70.42) 88% EV / mo +$821 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $874/mo median; plan ~$594/mo after 68% keep · $6,824 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [2.8-6.5], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$529 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $82 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.48–$2.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 459 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $72 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $70.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $70): -$39,092 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$3,857 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,816 (+$7,840 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,805, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,390, position total $-47,112 (+$5,544 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $68 | 18 Sep | 3d | 5.5% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +5pp | $360 | $3,600 | +$1,600 | $39,932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $68 5.5% OTM over spot $64.44 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.75 mid) = $360 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $68) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $68.75) 81% EV / mo +$1,140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 19% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,401/mo median; plan ~$953/mo after 68% keep · $11,315 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.5-6.8], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$348 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $79 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.00/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 880 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $70 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $68 is $81 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $68.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $68): -$39,932 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$3,857 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,656 (+$7,000 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,645, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,230, position total $-47,952 (+$4,704 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $79 | 25 Sep | 10d | 22.6% | 96%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | +1pp | $132 | $396 | -$1,620 | $41,619 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 22.6% OTM over spot $64.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.28 mid) = $132 credit for the 10d cycle → $396/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $79.28) 97% EV / mo +$304 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 10% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-61/mo median; plan ~$-41/mo after 68% keep · $-540 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 10% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,469 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $83 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 147 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $81 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $70 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $79.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$41,619 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,485 (+$9,171 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,474, the opportunity cost of earning $396/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,976, position total $-43,699 (+$8,957 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $76 | 25 Sep | 10d | 17.9% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +3pp | $228 | $684 | -$1,332 | $43,323 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $76 17.9% OTM over spot $64.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.42 mid) = $228 credit for the 10d cycle → $684/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $76.42) 92% EV / mo +$301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $79/mo median; plan ~$53/mo after 68% keep · $646 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,312 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.63/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 301 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $78 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $73 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $76.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $76): -$43,323 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,189 (+$7,467 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,178, the opportunity cost of earning $684/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,680, position total $-45,403 (+$7,253 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $72 | 25 Sep | 10d | 11.7% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | +2pp | $456 | $1,368 | -$648 | $45,495 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $72 11.7% OTM over spot $64.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.81 mid) = $456 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,368/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $72.81) 86% EV / mo +$443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $367/mo median; plan ~$250/mo after 68% keep · $3,130 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,003 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $79 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.44/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $2.35–$3.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 748 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $74 (overshoots $1.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $77 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $72.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $72): -$45,495 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,361 (+$5,295 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,350, the opportunity cost of earning $1,368/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,852, position total $-47,575 (+$5,081 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $70 | 25 Sep | 10d | 8.6% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +3pp | $672 | $2,016 | — | $46,479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $70 8.6% OTM over spot $64.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.16 mid) = $672 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,016/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $71.16) 81% EV / mo +$572 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $539/mo median; plan ~$367/mo after 68% keep · $4,612 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$747 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $79 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $2.44–$3.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,119 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $71 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.12 collected) or spot ≥ $71.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $70): -$46,479 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,345 (+$4,311 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,334, the opportunity cost of earning $2,016/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,836, position total $-48,559 (+$4,097 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $66 | 25 Sep | 10d | 2.4% | 60%hist 65% | 83%hist 79% | +6pp | $1,314 | $3,942 | +$1,926 | $48,237 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $66 2.4% OTM over spot $64.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.27 mid) = $1,314 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,942/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $66) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $68.27) 71% EV / mo +$571 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $890/mo median; plan ~$605/mo after 68% keep · $7,784 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.2 mo [4.5-7.8], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$24 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $77 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $2.96–$4.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,044 simulated challenges: the $66 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $67 (overshoots $1.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $66 is $83 below CC-SS $148.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.19 collected) or spot ≥ $68.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $66)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $73.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-52,656 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,790 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $66): -$48,237 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,103 (+$2,553 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,092, the opportunity cost of earning $3,942/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,594, position total $-50,317 (+$2,339 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.006 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,790 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-25,011
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.40 | 5/6 | $2,000 | $1,616 | 86% | 88% | +$821 | -$39,092 | 245.4% | $-44,816 (vs do-nothing $-19,805) |
| $69 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.52 | 4/6 | $2,080 | $1,699 | 82% | 85% | +$714 | -$31,626 | 198.5% | $-41,207 (vs do-nothing $-16,196) |
| $70 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.12 | 6/6 | $2,016 | $1,629 | 77% | 81% | +$572 | -$46,479 | 291.8% | $-48,345 (vs do-nothing $-23,334) |
| $68 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.72 | 3/6 | $2,160 | $1,782 | 77% | 81% | +$684 | -$23,959 | 150.4% | $-37,398 (vs do-nothing $-12,387) |
| $69 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.32 | 5/6 | $1,980 | $1,596 | 74% | 79% | +$481 | -$39,132 | 245.7% | $-44,856 (vs do-nothing $-19,845) |
| $70 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.81 | 6/6 | $1,916 | $1,530 | 73% | 78% | +$430 | -$46,065 | 289.2% | $-47,931 (vs do-nothing $-22,920) |
| $70 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.43 | 6/6 | $1,822 | $1,436 | 71% | 77% | +$431 | -$45,693 | 286.8% | $-47,559 (vs do-nothing $-22,548) |
| $67 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.94 | 2/6 | $1,880 | $1,505 | 71% | 77% | +$477 | -$16,129 | 101.2% | $-33,425 (vs do-nothing $-8,414) |
| $69 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.05 | 5/6 | $1,809 | $1,425 | 70% | 77% | +$366 | -$38,767 | 243.4% | $-44,491 (vs do-nothing $-19,480) |
| $68 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.59 | 4/6 | $1,908 | $1,527 | 70% | 76% | +$421 | -$31,598 | 198.4% | $-41,179 (vs do-nothing $-16,168) |
| $69 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.54 | 6/6 | $1,905 | $1,518 | 68% | 78% | +$310 | -$46,227 | 290.2% | $-48,093 (vs do-nothing $-23,082) |
| $68 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | 5/6 | $2,065 | $1,681 | 67% | 75% | +$375 | -$39,122 | 245.6% | $-44,846 (vs do-nothing $-19,835) |
| $68 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.90 | 5/6 | $1,812 | $1,429 | 65% | 74% | +$294 | -$38,842 | 243.8% | $-44,566 (vs do-nothing $-19,555) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $67 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.84 | 4/6 | $2,208 | $1,827 | 65% | 74% | +$374 | -$31,898 | 200.2% | $-41,479 (vs do-nothing $-16,468) |
| $66 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.22 | 2/6 | $2,440 | $2,065 | 64% | 73% | +$470 | -$16,273 | 102.2% | $-33,569 (vs do-nothing $-8,558) |
| $67 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.64 | 4/6 | $1,864 | $1,483 | 63% | 73% | +$274 | -$31,578 | 198.2% | $-41,159 (vs do-nothing $-16,148) |
| $67 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 5/6 | $2,031 | $1,647 | 62% | 73% | +$300 | -$39,167 | 245.9% | $-44,891 (vs do-nothing $-19,880) |
| $66 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.19 | 3/6 | $1,971 | $1,593 | 60% | 71% | +$285 | -$24,118 | 151.4% | $-37,557 (vs do-nothing $-12,546) |
| $66 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 4/6 | $2,118 | $1,737 | 59% | 71% | +$260 | -$31,834 | 199.8% | $-41,415 (vs do-nothing $-16,404) |
| $66 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 4/6 | $1,800 | $1,419 | 59% | 71% | +$226 | -$31,594 | 198.3% | $-41,175 (vs do-nothing $-16,164) |
| $65 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.58 | 2/6 | $3,160 | $2,785 | 56% | 69% | +$446 | -$16,401 | 103.0% | $-33,697 (vs do-nothing $-8,686) |
| $65 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.05 | 4/6 | $2,025 | $1,644 | 55% | 69% | +$242 | -$31,814 | 199.7% | $-41,395 (vs do-nothing $-16,384) |
| $65 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 3/6 | $1,853 | $1,475 | 55% | 69% | +$235 | -$24,025 | 150.8% | $-37,464 (vs do-nothing $-12,453) |
| $65 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.59 | 3/6 | $2,331 | $1,953 | 55% | 68% | +$281 | -$24,298 | 152.5% | $-37,737 (vs do-nothing $-12,726) |
| $64 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.45 | 4/6 | $2,225 | $1,844 | 52% | 68% | +$212 | -$32,054 | 201.2% | $-41,635 (vs do-nothing $-16,624) |
| $64 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 3/6 | $2,012 | $1,634 | 51% | 67% | +$145 | -$24,235 | 152.1% | $-37,674 (vs do-nothing $-12,663) |
| $64 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 2/6 | $1,800 | $1,425 | 50% | 66% | +$152 | -$16,317 | 102.4% | $-33,613 (vs do-nothing $-8,602) |
| $64 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.01 | 1/6 | $2,010 | $1,638 | 48% | 65% | +$181 | -$8,257 | 51.8% | $-29,411 (vs do-nothing $-4,400) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.