6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.05 (banked floor $144.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $4,174/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $414/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-53,508 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 6 × $70 | 93% | $2,340 | $2,258 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 6 × $69 | 79% | $2,380 | $497 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $75 | 18 Sep | 2d | 18.5% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +2pp | $30 | $450 | -$1,890 | $44,398 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 18.5% OTM over spot $63.29 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $30 credit for the 2d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $75.06) 99% EV / mo +$377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 23% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-28/mo median; plan ~$-19/mo after 68% keep · $-245 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.1-6.7], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,010 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $85 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.45/sh now → $1.73 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $75.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$44,398 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,812 (+$6,696 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,988, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,424, position total $-46,560 (+$6,948 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $70 | 18 Sep | 2d | 10.6% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 14% | +6pp | $104 | $1,560 | -$780 | $31,515 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $70 10.6% OTM over spot $63.29 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.27 mid) = $104 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $70.27) 94% EV / mo +$1,142 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $784/mo median; plan ~$533/mo after 68% keep · $5,988 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.1-6.9], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$543 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.29/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $1.60–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 77 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $71 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $70.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $70): -$31,515 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $110): -$7,803 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,732 (+$11,776 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,908, the opportunity cost of earning $1,560/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,532, position total $-45,662 (+$7,846 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $70 | 18 Sep | 2d | 10.6% | 93%hist 96% | 14%hist 14% | +6pp | $156 | $2,340 | — | $47,272 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $70 10.6% OTM over spot $63.29 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.27 mid) = $156 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $70) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $70.27) 94% EV / mo +$1,713 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,301/mo median; plan ~$885/mo after 68% keep · $9,825 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.2 mo [2.7-6.2], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$815 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.29/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $1.62–$3.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 71 simulated challenges: the $70 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $71 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $70 is $79 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $70.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $70)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $70): -$47,272 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,686 (+$3,822 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,862, the opportunity cost of earning $2,340/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,298, position total $-49,434 (+$4,074 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $69 | 18 Sep | 2d | 9.0% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +12pp | $210 | $3,150 | +$810 | $47,818 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $69 9.0% OTM over spot $63.29 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.38 mid) = $210 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $69) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $69.38) 92% EV / mo +$2,129 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,878/mo median; plan ~$1,277/mo after 68% keep · $13,837 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.1-7.1], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$747 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.66–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 145 simulated challenges: the $69 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $70 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $69 is $80 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $69.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $69)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $69): -$47,818 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,232 (+$3,276 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,408, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,844, position total $-49,980 (+$3,528 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $68 | 18 Sep | 2d | 7.4% | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 26% | +12pp | $288 | $4,320 | +$1,980 | $48,340 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $68 7.4% OTM over spot $63.29 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.52 mid) = $288 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $68) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $68.52) 89% EV / mo +$2,658 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,187/mo median; plan ~$1,487/mo after 68% keep · $16,734 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.3-6.9], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$655 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.63–$3.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 251 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $69 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $68 is $81 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $68.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $68): -$48,340 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,754 (+$2,754 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,930, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,366, position total $-50,502 (+$3,006 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $78 | 25 Sep | 9d | 23.2% | 95%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | +1pp | $126 | $420 | -$1,960 | $42,502 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 23.2% OTM over spot $63.29 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.26 mid) = $126 credit for the 9d cycle → $420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $78.25) 96% EV / mo +$259 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-75/mo median; plan ~$-51/mo after 68% keep · $-656 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,668 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $82 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.23/sh now → $2.99 mid-life (likely $1.85–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 119 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $79 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $71 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $78.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$42,502 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,916 (+$8,592 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,092, the opportunity cost of earning $420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,528, position total $-44,664 (+$8,844 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $74 | 25 Sep | 9d | 16.9% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +2pp | $258 | $860 | -$1,520 | $44,770 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $74 16.9% OTM over spot $63.29 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $258 credit for the 9d cycle → $860/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $74.49) 92% EV / mo +$454 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $174/mo median; plan ~$118/mo after 68% keep · $1,494 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.3-7.6], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,444 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $79 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $2.33–$4.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $76 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $75 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $74.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $74): -$44,770 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-47,184 (+$6,324 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,360, the opportunity cost of earning $860/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,796, position total $-46,932 (+$6,576 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $71 | 25 Sep | 9d | 12.2% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | +2pp | $486 | $1,620 | -$760 | $46,342 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $71 12.2% OTM over spot $63.29 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.85 mid) = $486 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $71) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $71.85) 87% EV / mo +$774 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $499/mo median; plan ~$339/mo after 68% keep · $4,302 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,147 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $78 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.85/sh now → $2.72 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 638 simulated challenges: the $71 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $73 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $71 is $78 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $71.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $71)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $71): -$46,342 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,756 (+$4,752 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,932, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,368, position total $-48,504 (+$5,004 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $69 | 25 Sep | 9d | 9.0% | 79%hist 84% | 44%hist 39% | +5pp | $714 | $2,380 | — | $47,314 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $69 9.0% OTM over spot $63.29 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.25 mid) = $714 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $69) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $70.25) 83% EV / mo +$1,003 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 13% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $736/mo median; plan ~$501/mo after 68% keep · $6,405 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 13% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$873 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $78 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 921 simulated challenges: the $69 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $71 (overshoots $1.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $69 is $80 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $70.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $69)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $69): -$47,314 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,728 (+$3,780 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,904, the opportunity cost of earning $2,380/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,340, position total $-49,476 (+$4,032 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $65 | 25 Sep | 9d | 2.7% | 61%hist 65% | 80%hist 79% | +4pp | $1,452 | $4,840 | +$2,460 | $48,976 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $65 2.7% OTM over spot $63.29 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.49 mid) = $1,452 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $65) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $67.49) 73% EV / mo +$1,410 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 12% whole by 9mo vs 8% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,177/mo median; plan ~$801/mo after 68% keep · $10,322 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.1 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$43 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $79 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.52/sh now → $2.49 mid-life (likely $3.28–$4.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,941 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $67 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $65 is $84 below CC-SS $149.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.42 collected) or spot ≥ $67.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $65)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,508 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,094 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $65): -$48,976 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,390 (+$2,118 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,824 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,566, the opportunity cost of earning $4,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,002, position total $-51,138 (+$2,370 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.993 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$51,094 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-25,824
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.26 | 6/6 | $2,340 | $1,926 | 93% | 94% | +$1,713 | -$47,272 | 296.7% | $-49,686 (vs do-nothing $-23,862) |
| $69 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.35 | 4/6 | $2,100 | $1,697 | 90% | 92% | +$1,419 | -$31,879 | 200.1% | $-42,096 (vs do-nothing $-16,272) |
| $68 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.48 | 3/6 | $2,160 | $1,763 | 87% | 89% | +$1,329 | -$24,170 | 151.7% | $-38,289 (vs do-nothing $-12,465) |
| $67 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.69 | 3/6 | $3,105 | $2,708 | 81% | 85% | +$1,767 | -$24,407 | 153.2% | $-38,526 (vs do-nothing $-12,702) |
| $66 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.95 | 2/6 | $2,850 | $2,458 | 80% | 87% | +$2,055 | -$16,419 | 103.1% | $-34,440 (vs do-nothing $-8,616) |
| $69 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.19 | 6/6 | $2,380 | $1,966 | 79% | 83% | +$1,003 | -$47,314 | 297.0% | $-49,728 (vs do-nothing $-23,904) |
| $68 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.42 | 5/6 | $2,367 | $1,958 | 75% | 81% | +$910 | -$39,813 | 249.9% | $-46,129 (vs do-nothing $-20,305) |
| $69 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.89 | 6/6 | $2,126 | $1,712 | 74% | 80% | +$699 | -$46,894 | 294.4% | $-49,308 (vs do-nothing $-23,484) |
| $68 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.17 | 6/6 | $2,441 | $2,027 | 71% | 78% | +$756 | -$47,326 | 297.1% | $-49,740 (vs do-nothing $-23,916) |
| $67 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.70 | 4/6 | $2,267 | $1,864 | 71% | 78% | +$797 | -$32,139 | 201.7% | $-42,356 (vs do-nothing $-16,532) |
| $65 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.30 | 2/6 | $3,900 | $3,508 | 70% | 82% | +$2,462 | -$16,549 | 103.9% | $-34,570 (vs do-nothing $-8,746) |
| $68 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.78 | 6/6 | $2,176 | $1,761 | 69% | 77% | +$639 | -$46,960 | 294.8% | $-49,374 (vs do-nothing $-23,550) |
| $67 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.49 | 5/6 | $2,334 | $1,926 | 68% | 76% | +$708 | -$39,778 | 249.7% | $-46,094 (vs do-nothing $-20,270) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $66 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.03 | 4/6 | $2,707 | $2,304 | 66% | 76% | +$866 | -$32,407 | 203.4% | $-42,624 (vs do-nothing $-16,800) |
| $67 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 6/6 | $2,348 | $1,934 | 66% | 75% | +$581 | -$47,428 | 297.7% | $-49,842 (vs do-nothing $-24,018) |
| $66 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.87 | 4/6 | $2,152 | $1,750 | 64% | 75% | +$609 | -$32,071 | 201.3% | $-42,288 (vs do-nothing $-16,464) |
| $66 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.35 | 5/6 | $2,185 | $1,776 | 63% | 74% | +$497 | -$39,848 | 250.1% | $-46,164 (vs do-nothing $-20,340) |
| $65 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.42 | 3/6 | $2,420 | $2,023 | 61% | 73% | +$705 | -$24,488 | 153.7% | $-38,607 (vs do-nothing $-12,783) |
| $65 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 4/6 | $2,325 | $1,922 | 60% | 72% | +$505 | -$32,379 | 203.3% | $-42,596 (vs do-nothing $-16,772) |
| $65 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 5/6 | $2,446 | $2,037 | 60% | 72% | +$516 | -$40,148 | 252.0% | $-46,464 (vs do-nothing $-20,640) |
| $64 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.69 | 1/6 | $2,535 | $2,149 | 59% | 77% | +$1,324 | -$8,336 | 52.3% | $-30,258 (vs do-nothing $-4,434) |
| $64 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.86 | 3/6 | $2,860 | $2,463 | 56% | 71% | +$749 | -$24,656 | 154.8% | $-38,775 (vs do-nothing $-12,951) |
| $64 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.20 | 4/6 | $2,191 | $1,788 | 56% | 71% | +$433 | -$32,339 | 203.0% | $-42,556 (vs do-nothing $-16,732) |
| $64 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.55 | 4/6 | $2,662 | $2,260 | 56% | 71% | +$531 | -$32,599 | 204.6% | $-42,816 (vs do-nothing $-16,992) |
| $63 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.70 | 4/6 | $2,452 | $2,049 | 52% | 69% | +$456 | -$32,539 | 204.3% | $-42,756 (vs do-nothing $-16,932) |
| $63 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.00 | 3/6 | $2,250 | $1,853 | 52% | 69% | +$390 | -$24,614 | 154.5% | $-38,733 (vs do-nothing $-12,909) |
| $63 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 2/6 | $2,200 | $1,808 | 51% | 69% | +$485 | -$16,549 | 103.9% | $-34,570 (vs do-nothing $-8,746) |
| $63 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.17 | 1/6 | $3,255 | $2,869 | 48% | 73% | +$1,352 | -$8,388 | 52.7% | $-30,310 (vs do-nothing $-4,486) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.