6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.16 (banked floor $145.06) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $4,440/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $356/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-51,567 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 8d | 6 × $72 | 77% | $2,362 | $604 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $81 | 25 Sep | 8d | 21.0% | 95%hist 96% | 10%hist 3% | +1pp | $96 | $360 | -$2,002 | $40,801 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $81 21.0% OTM over spot $66.97 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.20 mid) = $96 credit for the 8d cycle → $360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $81.20) 96% EV / mo +$177 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-82/mo median; plan ~$-56/mo after 68% keep · $-679 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.3-6.2], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,402 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $85 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.53/sh now → $2.50 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 103 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $83 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $68 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $81.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,567 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,452 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $81): -$40,801 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,916 (+$9,651 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-24,606 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,310, the opportunity cost of earning $360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.30 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,884, position total $-42,742 (+$8,825 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $77 | 25 Sep | 8d | 15.0% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +1pp | $210 | $788 | -$1,575 | $43,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $77 15.0% OTM over spot $66.97 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.42 mid) = $210 credit for the 8d cycle → $788/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $77.42) 91% EV / mo +$324 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 11% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $180/mo median; plan ~$123/mo after 68% keep · $1,527 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo, measured ONLY among the 11% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,214 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $82 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.36/sh now → $2.37 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 352 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $79 (overshoots $1.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $72 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $77.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,567 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,452 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $77): -$43,087 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,202 (+$7,365 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-24,606 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,596, the opportunity cost of earning $788/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.30 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,170, position total $-45,028 (+$6,539 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $74 | 25 Sep | 8d | 10.5% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +5pp | $444 | $1,665 | -$698 | $44,653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $74 10.5% OTM over spot $66.97 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.77 mid) = $444 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,665/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $74.77) 86% EV / mo +$679 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $585/mo median; plan ~$398/mo after 68% keep · $4,909 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.7-7.0], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$924 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.22/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $2.19–$3.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 681 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $76 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $75 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $74.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,567 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,452 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $74): -$44,653 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,768 (+$5,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-24,606 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,162, the opportunity cost of earning $1,665/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.30 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,736, position total $-46,594 (+$4,973 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $72 | 25 Sep | 8d | 7.5% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +4pp | $630 | $2,362 | — | $45,667 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $72 7.5% OTM over spot $66.97 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.11 mid) = $630 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,362/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $73.11) 81% EV / mo +$731 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 15% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $758/mo median; plan ~$516/mo after 68% keep · $6,449 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.7 mo [3.9-7.4], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$701 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $81 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.14/sh now → $2.22 mid-life (likely $2.35–$3.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,055 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $74 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $77 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $73.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,567 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,452 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $72): -$45,667 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-46,782 (+$4,785 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-24,606 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,176, the opportunity cost of earning $2,362/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.30 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,750, position total $-47,608 (+$3,959 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $68 | 25 Sep | 8d | 1.5% | 58%hist 70% | 87%hist 79% | +5pp | $1,380 | $5,175 | +$2,812 | $47,317 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $68 1.5% OTM over spot $66.97 25 Sep 2026 (8d, $2.38 mid) = $1,380 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $68) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $70.38) 70% EV / mo +$986 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 10% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,229/mo median; plan ~$836/mo after 68% keep · $10,555 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.9-7.4], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$123 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $79 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.96/sh now → $2.10 mid-life (likely $2.83–$3.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,118 simulated challenges: the $68 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $70 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $68 is $81 below CC-SS $149.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.30 collected) or spot ≥ $70.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $68)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-51,567 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,452 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $68): -$47,317 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,432 (+$3,135 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-24,606 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,826, the opportunity cost of earning $5,175/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $89.30 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,400, position total $-49,258 (+$2,309 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.023 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,452 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-24,606
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $72 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.05 | 6/6 | $2,362 | $2,006 | 77% | 81% | +$731 | -$45,667 | 286.7% | $-46,782 (vs do-nothing $-22,176) |
| $71 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.27 | 5/6 | $2,381 | $2,027 | 73% | 79% | +$641 | -$38,446 | 241.3% | $-43,476 (vs do-nothing $-18,870) |
| $72 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.85 | 6/6 | $2,220 | $1,864 | 72% | 78% | +$546 | -$45,187 | 283.7% | $-46,302 (vs do-nothing $-21,696) |
| $71 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.15 | 6/6 | $2,580 | $2,224 | 69% | 76% | +$594 | -$45,607 | 286.3% | $-46,722 (vs do-nothing $-22,116) |
| $70 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.64 | 4/6 | $2,460 | $2,108 | 68% | 76% | +$690 | -$31,009 | 194.7% | $-39,954 (vs do-nothing $-15,348) |
| $70 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.47 | 5/6 | $2,470 | $2,116 | 65% | 74% | +$514 | -$38,346 | 240.7% | $-43,376 (vs do-nothing $-18,770) |
| $70 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 6/6 | $2,455 | $2,098 | 64% | 73% | +$329 | -$45,697 | 286.9% | $-46,812 (vs do-nothing $-22,206) |
| $69 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.92 | 4/6 | $2,880 | $2,528 | 63% | 73% | +$646 | -$31,297 | 196.5% | $-40,242 (vs do-nothing $-15,636) |
| $69 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.78 | 4/6 | $2,224 | $1,872 | 61% | 72% | +$383 | -$30,953 | 194.3% | $-39,898 (vs do-nothing $-15,292) |
| $69 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.35 | 5/6 | $2,284 | $1,930 | 60% | 71% | +$260 | -$38,406 | 241.1% | $-43,436 (vs do-nothing $-18,830) |
| $68 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.30 | 3/6 | $2,588 | $2,237 | 58% | 70% | +$493 | -$23,658 | 148.5% | $-36,519 (vs do-nothing $-11,913) |
| $68 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.05 | 4/6 | $2,440 | $2,088 | 57% | 70% | +$285 | -$31,245 | 196.1% | $-40,190 (vs do-nothing $-15,584) |
| $68 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 5/6 | $2,557 | $2,203 | 57% | 70% | +$254 | -$38,706 | 243.0% | $-43,736 (vs do-nothing $-19,130) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $67 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.25 | 4/6 | $2,318 | $1,966 | 53% | 68% | +$231 | -$31,165 | 195.6% | $-40,110 (vs do-nothing $-15,504) |
| $67 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.70 | 3/6 | $2,220 | $1,870 | 53% | 68% | +$337 | -$23,538 | 147.8% | $-36,399 (vs do-nothing $-11,793) |
| $67 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.83 | 3/6 | $3,184 | $2,834 | 52% | 68% | +$593 | -$23,799 | 149.4% | $-36,660 (vs do-nothing $-12,054) |
| $66 | 22d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.75 | 4/6 | $2,591 | $2,239 | 50% | 67% | +$236 | -$31,365 | 196.9% | $-40,310 (vs do-nothing $-15,704) |
| $66 | 15d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.95 | 3/6 | $2,370 | $2,020 | 49% | 66% | +$190 | -$23,763 | 149.2% | $-36,624 (vs do-nothing $-12,018) |
| $66 | 8d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.20 | 2/6 | $2,400 | $2,052 | 46% | 65% | +$288 | -$15,992 | 100.4% | $-32,768 (vs do-nothing $-8,162) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.