6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $147.28 (banked floor $143.19) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $4,087/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $252/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-48,474 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $75C 25 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $0.68 | $410 | 2026-09-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 3d | 6 × $77 | 88% | $2,160 | $1,802 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 2 Oct 2026 · 10d | 6 × $77 | 77% | $2,178 | $155 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $85 | 25 Sep | 3d | 20.6% | 99+%hist 96% | 1%hist 3% | +0pp | $30 | $300 | -$1,860 | $37,341 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $85 20.6% OTM over spot $70.49 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $30 credit for the 3d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $85.08) 99+% EV / mo +$292 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-171/mo median; plan ~$-116/mo after 68% keep · $-1,533 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [2.8-6.5], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,058 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $95 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $62 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $85.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $85): -$37,341 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,388 (+$11,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,976, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,350, position total $-37,694 (+$10,780 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $78 | 25 Sep | 3d | 10.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +4pp | $140 | $1,400 | -$760 | $34,502 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $78 10.7% OTM over spot $70.49 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid) = $140 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $78.30) 92% EV / mo +$758 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $722/mo median; plan ~$491/mo after 68% keep · $5,602 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.1-6.1], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$692 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $88 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.60–$3.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 258 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $80 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $69 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $78.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $78): -$34,502 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$4,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,277 (+$9,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,865, the opportunity cost of earning $1,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,510, position total $-39,583 (+$8,891 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $78 | 25 Sep | 3d | 10.7% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +6pp | $168 | $1,680 | -$480 | $41,403 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 10.7% OTM over spot $70.49 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.30 mid) = $168 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $78.30) 92% EV / mo +$910 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $934/mo median; plan ~$635/mo after 68% keep · $6,793 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.0-6.3], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$831 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $88 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.48–$3.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 251 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $80 (overshoots $1.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $69 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $78.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$41,403 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,450 (+$7,024 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,038, the opportunity cost of earning $1,680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,412, position total $-41,756 (+$6,718 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $77 | 25 Sep | 3d | 9.2% | 88%hist 86% | 23%hist 25% | +8pp | $216 | $2,160 | — | $41,955 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $77 9.2% OTM over spot $70.49 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid) = $216 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $77.39) 90% EV / mo +$1,036 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,153/mo median; plan ~$784/mo after 68% keep · $9,120 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [3.1-6.9], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$770 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $87 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.61–$3.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $79 (overshoots $1.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $70 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.36 collected) or spot ≥ $77.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $77): -$41,955 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,002 (+$6,472 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,590, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,964, position total $-42,308 (+$6,166 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $74 | 25 Sep | 3d | 5.0% | 76%hist 84% | 50%hist 39% | +8pp | $430 | $4,300 | +$2,140 | $36,212 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $74 5.0% OTM over spot $70.49 25 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.89 mid) = $430 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $74) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $74.89) 81% EV / mo +$1,498 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 26% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,749/mo median; plan ~$1,190/mo after 68% keep · $14,072 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.4-6.8], measured ONLY among the 26% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$359 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $89 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.85–$3.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 929 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $76 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $74 is $73 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $74.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $74)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $74): -$36,212 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$4,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,987 (+$7,487 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,575, the opportunity cost of earning $4,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,220, position total $-41,293 (+$7,181 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $90 | 2 Oct | 10d | 27.7% | 96%hist 96% | 8%hist 3% | +1pp | $90 | $270 | -$1,908 | $34,281 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 27.7% OTM over spot $70.49 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.21 mid) = $90 credit for the 10d cycle → $270/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $90.21) 96% EV / mo +$133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-41/mo median; plan ~$-28/mo after 68% keep · $-312 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.6-6.4], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,793 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $95 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.44/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $2.21–$3.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 124 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $92 (overshoots $2.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $57 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $90.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$34,281 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,328 (+$14,146 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,916, the opportunity cost of earning $270/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,290, position total $-34,634 (+$13,840 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $83 | 2 Oct | 10d | 17.7% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +1pp | $264 | $792 | -$1,386 | $38,307 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $83 17.7% OTM over spot $70.49 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.47 mid) = $264 credit for the 10d cycle → $792/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $83.47) 91% EV / mo +$325 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 19% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $266/mo median; plan ~$181/mo after 68% keep · $2,160 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.4-7.1], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,472 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $89 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.09/sh now → $2.89 mid-life (likely $2.48–$4.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 432 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $85 (overshoots $1.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83 is $64 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $83.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $83)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $83): -$38,307 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,354 (+$10,120 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,942, the opportunity cost of earning $792/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,316, position total $-38,660 (+$9,814 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $80 | 2 Oct | 10d | 13.5% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | +2pp | $462 | $1,386 | -$792 | $39,909 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $80 13.5% OTM over spot $70.49 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $0.79 mid) = $462 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,386/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $80.78) 87% EV / mo +$452 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $521/mo median; plan ~$355/mo after 68% keep · $4,196 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.3-6.0], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,211 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $86 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.94/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $2.74–$4.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 708 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $82 (overshoots $1.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $67 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $80.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $80): -$39,909 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,956 (+$8,518 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,544, the opportunity cost of earning $1,386/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,918, position total $-40,262 (+$8,212 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $77 | 2 Oct | 10d | 9.2% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +3pp | $726 | $2,178 | — | $41,445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $77 9.2% OTM over spot $70.49 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $1.27 mid) = $726 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,178/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $78.27) 81% EV / mo +$418 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $740/mo median; plan ~$503/mo after 68% keep · $6,035 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.8 mo [3.2-5.9], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$885 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $87 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.79/sh now → $2.68 mid-life (likely $2.82–$4.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,145 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $79 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $70 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.21 collected) or spot ≥ $78.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $77): -$41,445 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,492 (+$6,982 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,080, the opportunity cost of earning $2,178/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,454, position total $-41,798 (+$6,676 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $73 | 2 Oct | 10d | 3.6% | 63%hist 65% | 77%hist 68% | +6pp | $1,374 | $4,122 | +$1,944 | $43,197 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $73 3.6% OTM over spot $70.49 2 Oct 2026 (10d, $2.35 mid) = $1,374 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,122/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $73) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $75.36) 72% EV / mo +$410 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,118/mo median; plan ~$760/mo after 68% keep · $9,366 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.8-6.9], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$153 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $93 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.60/sh now → $2.54 mid-life (likely $3.29–$4.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,882 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $75 (overshoots $1.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $73 is $74 below CC-SS $147.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.29 collected) or spot ≥ $75.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $73)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $70.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-48,474 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$48,426 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $73): -$43,197 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,244 (+$5,230 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,832, the opportunity cost of earning $4,122/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.30 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$37,206, position total $-43,550 (+$4,924 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.051 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$48,426 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-28,412
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $77 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.36 | 6/6 | $2,160 | $1,908 | 88% | 90% | +$1,036 | -$41,955 | 263.4% | $-42,002 (vs do-nothing $-13,590) |
| $76 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.49 | 5/6 | $2,450 | $2,201 | 85% | 87% | +$1,088 | -$35,397 | 222.2% | $-40,172 (vs do-nothing $-11,760) |
| $75 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.65 | 4/6 | $2,600 | $2,354 | 81% | 84% | +$1,028 | -$28,654 | 179.9% | $-38,156 (vs do-nothing $-9,744) |
| $77 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.21 | 6/6 | $2,178 | $1,926 | 77% | 81% | +$418 | -$41,445 | 260.2% | $-41,492 (vs do-nothing $-13,080) |
| $74 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.86 | 3/6 | $2,580 | $2,337 | 76% | 81% | +$899 | -$21,727 | 136.4% | $-35,957 (vs do-nothing $-7,545) |
| $76 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.43 | 5/6 | $2,145 | $1,896 | 74% | 79% | +$358 | -$34,927 | 219.3% | $-39,702 (vs do-nothing $-11,290) |
| $77 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.96 | 6/6 | $2,075 | $1,823 | 73% | 78% | +$224 | -$40,995 | 257.3% | $-41,042 (vs do-nothing $-12,630) |
| $75 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.68 | 5/6 | $2,520 | $2,271 | 71% | 76% | +$359 | -$35,302 | 221.6% | $-40,077 (vs do-nothing $-11,665) |
| $76 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.25 | 6/6 | $2,382 | $2,130 | 70% | 76% | +$254 | -$41,421 | 260.0% | $-41,468 (vs do-nothing $-13,056) |
| $73 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.12 | 2/6 | $2,240 | $2,000 | 70% | 77% | +$665 | -$14,633 | 91.9% | $-33,590 (vs do-nothing $-5,178) |
| $76 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 6/6 | $2,250 | $1,998 | 69% | 77% | +$536 | -$40,971 | 257.2% | $-41,018 (vs do-nothing $-12,606) |
| $75 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.53 | 5/6 | $2,232 | $1,983 | 67% | 74% | +$202 | -$34,877 | 218.9% | $-39,652 (vs do-nothing $-11,240) |
| $74 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.97 | 4/6 | $2,364 | $2,118 | 67% | 74% | +$288 | -$28,526 | 179.1% | $-38,028 (vs do-nothing $-9,616) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 6/6 | $2,438 | $2,185 | 67% | 75% | +$507 | -$41,421 | 260.0% | $-41,468 (vs do-nothing $-13,056) |
| $74 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | 5/6 | $2,479 | $2,230 | 64% | 72% | +$163 | -$35,237 | 221.2% | $-40,012 (vs do-nothing $-11,600) |
| $74 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 5/6 | $2,250 | $2,001 | 64% | 74% | +$441 | -$34,842 | 218.7% | $-39,617 (vs do-nothing $-11,205) |
| $73 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.29 | 3/6 | $2,061 | $1,818 | 63% | 72% | +$205 | -$21,598 | 135.6% | $-35,828 (vs do-nothing $-7,416) |
| $72 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.42 | 2/6 | $2,840 | $2,600 | 63% | 73% | +$664 | -$14,773 | 92.7% | $-33,730 (vs do-nothing $-5,318) |
| $73 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.15 | 4/6 | $2,224 | $1,977 | 61% | 71% | +$117 | -$28,454 | 178.6% | $-37,956 (vs do-nothing $-9,544) |
| $73 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 5/6 | $2,438 | $2,188 | 61% | 72% | +$408 | -$35,192 | 220.9% | $-39,967 (vs do-nothing $-11,555) |
| $72 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.67 | 3/6 | $2,403 | $2,160 | 59% | 70% | +$207 | -$21,784 | 136.8% | $-36,014 (vs do-nothing $-7,602) |
| $72 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.45 | 4/6 | $2,435 | $2,189 | 58% | 69% | +$50 | -$28,734 | 180.4% | $-38,236 (vs do-nothing $-9,824) |
| $72 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.35 | 4/6 | $2,175 | $1,929 | 58% | 71% | +$357 | -$28,374 | 178.1% | $-37,876 (vs do-nothing $-9,464) |
| $71 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.83 | 2/6 | $3,660 | $3,420 | 55% | 69% | +$714 | -$14,891 | 93.5% | $-33,848 (vs do-nothing $-5,436) |
| $71 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.75 | 4/6 | $2,375 | $2,129 | 55% | 69% | +$344 | -$28,614 | 179.6% | $-38,116 (vs do-nothing $-9,704) |
| $71 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.95 | 3/6 | $2,091 | $1,848 | 55% | 68% | +$73 | -$21,700 | 136.2% | $-35,930 (vs do-nothing $-7,518) |
| $71 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 3/6 | $2,700 | $2,457 | 55% | 67% | +$119 | -$21,985 | 138.0% | $-36,215 (vs do-nothing $-7,803) |
| $70 | 24d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.30 | 4/6 | $2,650 | $2,404 | 53% | 67% | +$131 | -$28,794 | 180.8% | $-38,296 (vs do-nothing $-9,884) |
| $70 | 17d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.35 | 3/6 | $2,303 | $2,060 | 52% | 66% | +$36 | -$21,880 | 137.4% | $-36,110 (vs do-nothing $-7,698) |
| $70 | 10d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 2/6 | $2,100 | $1,860 | 50% | 65% | +$93 | -$14,757 | 92.6% | $-33,714 (vs do-nothing $-5,302) |
| $70 | 3d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.31 | 1/6 | $2,310 | $2,073 | 48% | 66% | +$359 | -$7,497 | 47.1% | $-31,182 (vs do-nothing $-2,770) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.