6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.35 (banked floor $144.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $4,781/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $245/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-47,586 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $75C 25 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $0.68 | $410 | 2026-09-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 25 Sep 2026 · 2d | 4 × $78 | 90% | $2,520 | $2,146 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 2 Oct 2026 · 9d | 6 × $79 | 77% | $2,600 | $489 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $85 | 25 Sep | 2d | 16.5% | 99+%hist 96% | 0%hist 3% | -0pp | $20 | $300 | -$2,220 | $25,319 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $85 16.5% OTM over spot $72.94 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $20 credit for the 2d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $85.08) 99+% EV / mo +$298 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-164/mo median; plan ~$-112/mo after 68% keep · $-1,480 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [3.0-6.8], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$630 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $97 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.63 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $63 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $85.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $85): -$25,319 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $100): -$9,640 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,947 (+$12,639 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,040, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,892, position total $-35,293 (+$12,293 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $80 | 25 Sep | 2d | 9.7% | 96%hist 96% | 7%hist 3% | +3pp | $110 | $1,650 | -$870 | $34,064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $80 9.7% OTM over spot $72.94 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $110 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $80.23) 97% EV / mo +$1,477 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 17% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $551/mo median; plan ~$375/mo after 68% keep · $4,534 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [3.2-7.2], measured ONLY among the 17% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$655 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $92 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life (likely $1.55–$3.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 197 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $82 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $68 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $80.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $80): -$34,064 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$4,820 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,872 (+$8,714 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,965, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,530, position total $-39,218 (+$8,368 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $78 | 25 Sep | 2d | 6.9% | 90%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +7pp | $168 | $2,520 | — | $27,971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $78 6.9% OTM over spot $72.94 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $168 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $78.44) 92% EV / mo +$1,945 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 29% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,477/mo median; plan ~$1,004/mo after 68% keep · $11,559 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.4-6.7], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$429 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $90 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.67–$3.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $80 (overshoots $1.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $70 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $78.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $78): -$27,971 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $100): -$9,640 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,599 (+$9,987 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,692, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,544, position total $-37,945 (+$9,641 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $78 | 25 Sep | 2d | 6.9% | 90%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +12pp | $252 | $3,780 | +$1,260 | $41,957 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 6.9% OTM over spot $72.94 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.44 mid) = $252 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,780/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $78.44) 92% EV / mo +$2,918 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,195/mo median; plan ~$1,493/mo after 68% keep · $16,669 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.6-6.7], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$643 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $90 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.61–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 433 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $80 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $70 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $78.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$41,957 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,945 (+$5,641 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,038, the opportunity cost of earning $3,780/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,316, position total $-42,291 (+$5,295 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $77 | 25 Sep | 2d | 5.6% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 25% | +18pp | $342 | $5,130 | +$2,610 | $42,467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $77 5.6% OTM over spot $72.94 25 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.62 mid) = $342 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,130/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $77.62) 89% EV / mo +$3,518 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 36% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,998/mo median; plan ~$2,039/mo after 68% keep · $22,092 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.9 mo [3.5-6.5], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$542 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $94 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.08/sh now → $1.47 mid-life (likely $1.62–$3.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 619 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $79 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $71 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $77.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $77): -$42,467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,455 (+$5,131 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,548, the opportunity cost of earning $5,130/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,826, position total $-42,801 (+$4,785 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $90 | 2 Oct | 9d | 23.4% | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | +1pp | $85 | $283 | -$2,317 | $29,089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $90 23.4% OTM over spot $72.94 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.23 mid) = $85 credit for the 9d cycle → $283/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $90.22) 96% EV / mo +$129 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 16% whole by 9mo vs 16% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-0/mo median; plan ~$-0/mo after 68% keep · $-2 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.5-6.5], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,456 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $93 @ 73% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.08 mid-life (likely $2.38–$4.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 81 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $92 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $58 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $90.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$29,089 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$4,820 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,897 (+$13,689 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,990, the opportunity cost of earning $283/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,555, position total $-34,243 (+$13,343 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $85 | 2 Oct | 9d | 16.5% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +3pp | $282 | $940 | -$1,660 | $37,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $85 16.5% OTM over spot $72.94 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.52 mid) = $282 credit for the 9d cycle → $940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $85.52) 91% EV / mo +$440 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $375/mo median; plan ~$255/mo after 68% keep · $3,027 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.2-6.8], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,464 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $88 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.91 mid-life (likely $2.39–$4.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $87 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $63 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $85.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $85): -$37,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,715 (+$9,871 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,808, the opportunity cost of earning $940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,086, position total $-38,061 (+$9,525 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $81 | 2 Oct | 9d | 11.1% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | +3pp | $552 | $1,840 | -$760 | $39,857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $81 11.1% OTM over spot $72.94 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $1.01 mid) = $552 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $81) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $82.01) 86% EV / mo +$703 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 20% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $749/mo median; plan ~$509/mo after 68% keep · $6,058 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.0 mo [3.7-6.5], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,112 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $88 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.92/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.76–$4.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 745 simulated challenges: the $81 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $83 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $81 is $67 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $82.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $81)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $81): -$39,857 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,845 (+$7,741 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,938, the opportunity cost of earning $1,840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,216, position total $-40,191 (+$7,395 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $79 | 2 Oct | 9d | 8.3% | 77%hist 84% | 47%hist 39% | +5pp | $780 | $2,600 | — | $40,829 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 8.3% OTM over spot $72.94 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $1.36 mid) = $780 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $80.36) 82% EV / mo +$885 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $974/mo median; plan ~$662/mo after 68% keep · $8,119 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.5-6.9], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$843 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $86 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.82/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $2.91–$4.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,067 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $81 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $69 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $80.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$40,829 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-40,817 (+$6,769 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,910, the opportunity cost of earning $2,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,188, position total $-41,163 (+$6,423 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $75 | 2 Oct | 9d | 2.8% | 62%hist 65% | 79%hist 68% | +6pp | $1,500 | $5,000 | +$2,400 | $42,509 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 2.8% OTM over spot $72.94 2 Oct 2026 (9d, $2.52 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $77.53) 73% EV / mo +$1,236 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,359/mo median; plan ~$924/mo after 68% keep · $11,776 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.9 mo [3.5-7.0], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$41 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $92 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.63/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $3.33–$4.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,881 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $77 (overshoots $1.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $73 below CC-SS $148.35: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.50 collected) or spot ≥ $77.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.35, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-47,586 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$47,598 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$42,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,497 (+$5,089 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-28,907 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,590, the opportunity cost of earning $5,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.28 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,868, position total $-42,843 (+$4,743 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.052 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$47,598 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-28,907
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $78 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.42 | 4/6 | $2,520 | $2,331 | 90% | 92% | +$1,945 | -$27,971 | 175.6% | $-37,599 (vs do-nothing $-8,692) |
| $77 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.57 | 3/6 | $2,565 | $2,404 | 86% | 89% | +$1,759 | -$21,234 | 133.3% | $-35,681 (vs do-nothing $-6,774) |
| $76 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $0.78 | 3/6 | $3,510 | $3,349 | 79% | 85% | +$2,085 | -$21,471 | 134.8% | $-35,918 (vs do-nothing $-7,011) |
| $79 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.30 | 6/6 | $2,600 | $2,355 | 77% | 82% | +$885 | -$40,829 | 256.3% | $-40,817 (vs do-nothing $-11,910) |
| $78 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.50 | 5/6 | $2,500 | $2,283 | 74% | 80% | +$750 | -$34,424 | 216.1% | $-39,232 (vs do-nothing $-10,325) |
| $77 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.75 | 5/6 | $2,917 | $2,700 | 70% | 77% | +$782 | -$34,799 | 218.5% | $-39,607 (vs do-nothing $-10,700) |
| $78 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.42 | 6/6 | $2,722 | $2,478 | 70% | 77% | +$665 | -$40,757 | 255.9% | $-40,745 (vs do-nothing $-11,838) |
| $75 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.06 | 2/6 | $3,180 | $3,048 | 69% | 77% | +$1,040 | -$14,458 | 90.8% | $-33,725 (vs do-nothing $-4,818) |
| $77 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.74 | 5/6 | $2,569 | $2,352 | 67% | 75% | +$589 | -$34,304 | 215.3% | $-39,112 (vs do-nothing $-10,205) |
| $76 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.11 | 4/6 | $2,813 | $2,625 | 66% | 75% | +$738 | -$28,095 | 176.4% | $-37,723 (vs do-nothing $-8,816) |
| $76 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 5/6 | $2,812 | $2,596 | 64% | 73% | +$534 | -$34,674 | 217.7% | $-39,482 (vs do-nothing $-10,575) |
| $76 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 5/6 | $2,543 | $2,327 | 63% | 73% | +$526 | -$34,224 | 214.8% | $-39,032 (vs do-nothing $-10,125) |
| $75 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.50 | 3/6 | $2,500 | $2,339 | 62% | 73% | +$618 | -$21,255 | 133.4% | $-35,702 (vs do-nothing $-6,795) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $74 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.42 | 2/6 | $4,260 | $4,128 | 61% | 72% | +$1,165 | -$14,586 | 91.6% | $-33,853 (vs do-nothing $-4,946) |
| $75 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 4/6 | $2,625 | $2,436 | 60% | 72% | +$535 | -$27,939 | 175.4% | $-37,567 (vs do-nothing $-8,660) |
| $75 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.35 | 5/6 | $2,837 | $2,620 | 60% | 72% | +$579 | -$34,499 | 216.6% | $-39,307 (vs do-nothing $-10,400) |
| $74 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.84 | 3/6 | $2,840 | $2,679 | 57% | 70% | +$578 | -$21,453 | 134.7% | $-35,900 (vs do-nothing $-6,993) |
| $74 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.85 | 4/6 | $2,888 | $2,699 | 57% | 70% | +$501 | -$28,199 | 177.0% | $-37,827 (vs do-nothing $-8,920) |
| $74 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.70 | 4/6 | $2,452 | $2,264 | 57% | 70% | +$435 | -$27,859 | 174.9% | $-37,487 (vs do-nothing $-8,580) |
| $73 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.15 | 4/6 | $2,687 | $2,498 | 54% | 69% | +$440 | -$28,079 | 176.3% | $-37,707 (vs do-nothing $-8,800) |
| $73 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.25 | 3/6 | $2,391 | $2,230 | 53% | 68% | +$354 | -$21,330 | 133.9% | $-35,777 (vs do-nothing $-6,870) |
| $73 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 3/6 | $3,250 | $3,089 | 52% | 68% | +$550 | -$21,630 | 135.8% | $-36,077 (vs do-nothing $-7,170) |
| $73 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 1/6 | $2,775 | $2,671 | 52% | 68% | +$603 | -$7,350 | 46.1% | $-31,437 (vs do-nothing $-2,530) |
| $72 | 23d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.60 | 4/6 | $2,922 | $2,733 | 51% | 68% | +$424 | -$28,299 | 177.6% | $-37,927 (vs do-nothing $-9,020) |
| $72 | 16d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.70 | 3/6 | $2,644 | $2,483 | 49% | 67% | +$335 | -$21,495 | 134.9% | $-35,942 (vs do-nothing $-7,035) |
| $72 | 9d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.70 | 2/6 | $2,467 | $2,334 | 47% | 66% | +$333 | -$14,530 | 91.2% | $-33,797 (vs do-nothing $-4,890) |
| $72 | 2d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.32 | 1/6 | $3,480 | $3,376 | 42% | 64% | +$520 | -$7,403 | 46.5% | $-31,490 (vs do-nothing $-2,583) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.