6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.54 (banked floor $144.44) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $4,224/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $288/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-49,320 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $75C 25 Sep 2026 | U18827291 | $0.68 | $410 | 2026-09-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 8d | 6 × $76 | 79% | $2,385 | $638 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $85 | 2 Oct | 8d | 20.8% | 95%hist 96% | 9%hist 3% | +1pp | $85 | $319 | -$2,066 | $31,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $85 20.8% OTM over spot $70.38 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.23 mid) = $85 credit for the 8d cycle → $319/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $85.22) 96% EV / mo +$172 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-17/mo median; plan ~$-12/mo after 68% keep · $-127 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.6 mo [3.0-6.2], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,217 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $91 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 105 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $87 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $64 below CC-SS $148.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $85.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,289 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $85): -$31,686 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$4,843 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,560 (+$12,760 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,090 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,470, the opportunity cost of earning $319/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,070, position total $-36,904 (+$12,416 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $82 | 2 Oct | 8d | 16.5% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 13% | +1pp | $198 | $742 | -$1,642 | $39,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $82 16.5% OTM over spot $70.38 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.38 mid) = $198 credit for the 8d cycle → $742/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $82.38) 93% EV / mo +$386 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $237/mo median; plan ~$161/mo after 68% keep · $1,959 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo [3.7-6.8], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,310 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $88 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.55/sh now → $2.51 mid-life (likely $2.08–$3.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 250 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $84 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $67 below CC-SS $148.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $82.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,289 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $82): -$39,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,758 (+$9,562 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,090 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,668, the opportunity cost of earning $742/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,988, position total $-40,102 (+$9,218 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $78 | 2 Oct | 8d | 10.8% | 85%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | +2pp | $420 | $1,575 | -$810 | $41,905 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 10.8% OTM over spot $70.38 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.76 mid) = $420 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $78.75) 87% EV / mo +$627 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 15% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $620/mo median; plan ~$421/mo after 68% keep · $5,032 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo [3.6-6.5], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,014 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $84 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.38/sh now → $2.39 mid-life (likely $2.20–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 646 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $80 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $71 below CC-SS $148.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $78.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,289 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$41,905 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,936 (+$7,384 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,090 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,846, the opportunity cost of earning $1,575/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,166, position total $-42,280 (+$7,040 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $76 | 2 Oct | 8d | 8.0% | 79%hist 84% | 44%hist 39% | +5pp | $636 | $2,385 | — | $42,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $76 8.0% OTM over spot $70.38 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.11 mid) = $636 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,385/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $77.11) 82% EV / mo +$838 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $874/mo median; plan ~$594/mo after 68% keep · $7,566 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [3.8-7.7], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$761 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $86 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.29/sh now → $2.33 mid-life (likely $2.49–$3.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 965 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $78 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $73 below CC-SS $148.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $77.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,289 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $76): -$42,889 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,920 (+$6,400 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,090 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,830, the opportunity cost of earning $2,385/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,150, position total $-43,264 (+$6,056 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $72 | 2 Oct | 8d | 2.3% | 61%hist 65% | 81%hist 78% | +6pp | $1,326 | $4,972 | +$2,588 | $44,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $72 2.3% OTM over spot $70.38 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $2.26 mid) = $1,326 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,972/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $74.27) 72% EV / mo +$1,092 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 19% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,306/mo median; plan ~$888/mo after 68% keep · $11,217 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [4.1-6.9], measured ONLY among the 19% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $87 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.12/sh now → $2.21 mid-life (likely $2.93–$4.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,965 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $74 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $77 below CC-SS $148.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.21 collected) or spot ≥ $74.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $71.92 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-49,320 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$49,289 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $72): -$44,599 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,630 (+$4,690 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-29,090 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,540, the opportunity cost of earning $4,972/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $137.31 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$37,860, position total $-44,974 (+$4,346 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.051 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$49,289 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-29,090
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $76 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.06 | 6/6 | $2,385 | $2,097 | 79% | 82% | +$838 | -$42,889 | 269.2% | $-42,920 (vs do-nothing $-13,830) |
| $75 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.29 | 5/6 | $2,419 | $2,153 | 75% | 80% | +$781 | -$36,126 | 226.8% | $-41,000 (vs do-nothing $-11,910) |
| $76 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $1.88 | 6/6 | $2,256 | $1,968 | 73% | 79% | +$663 | -$42,397 | 266.1% | $-42,428 (vs do-nothing $-13,338) |
| $74 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.53 | 4/6 | $2,295 | $2,051 | 71% | 77% | +$639 | -$29,205 | 183.3% | $-38,922 (vs do-nothing $-9,832) |
| $76 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $2.71 | 6/6 | $2,217 | $1,929 | 70% | 77% | +$576 | -$41,899 | 263.0% | $-41,930 (vs do-nothing $-12,840) |
| $75 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.14 | 5/6 | $2,140 | $1,874 | 70% | 77% | +$524 | -$35,701 | 224.1% | $-40,575 (vs do-nothing $-11,485) |
| $75 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.00 | 6/6 | $2,455 | $2,167 | 68% | 76% | +$590 | -$42,325 | 265.7% | $-42,356 (vs do-nothing $-13,266) |
| $74 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.44 | 5/6 | $2,440 | $2,174 | 67% | 75% | +$542 | -$36,051 | 226.3% | $-40,925 (vs do-nothing $-11,835) |
| $73 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.85 | 4/6 | $2,775 | $2,531 | 66% | 75% | +$696 | -$29,477 | 185.0% | $-39,194 (vs do-nothing $-10,104) |
| $74 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 5/6 | $2,182 | $1,916 | 65% | 74% | +$420 | -$35,671 | 223.9% | $-40,545 (vs do-nothing $-11,455) |
| $73 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.80 | 4/6 | $2,240 | $1,996 | 63% | 73% | +$464 | -$29,097 | 182.7% | $-38,814 (vs do-nothing $-9,724) |
| $73 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $3.65 | 5/6 | $2,489 | $2,223 | 62% | 72% | +$495 | -$35,946 | 225.7% | $-40,820 (vs do-nothing $-11,730) |
| $72 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.21 | 3/6 | $2,486 | $2,264 | 61% | 72% | +$546 | -$22,300 | 140.0% | $-36,860 (vs do-nothing $-7,770) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $72 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.10 | 4/6 | $2,480 | $2,236 | 59% | 71% | +$408 | -$29,377 | 184.4% | $-39,094 (vs do-nothing $-10,004) |
| $72 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.05 | 4/6 | $2,209 | $1,965 | 59% | 71% | +$408 | -$28,997 | 182.0% | $-38,714 (vs do-nothing $-9,624) |
| $71 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.60 | 3/6 | $2,925 | $2,703 | 55% | 69% | +$533 | -$22,483 | 141.1% | $-37,043 (vs do-nothing $-7,953) |
| $71 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.45 | 4/6 | $2,427 | $2,183 | 55% | 69% | +$400 | -$29,237 | 183.5% | $-38,954 (vs do-nothing $-9,864) |
| $71 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 4/6 | $2,800 | $2,556 | 55% | 69% | +$403 | -$29,617 | 185.9% | $-39,334 (vs do-nothing $-10,244) |
| $70 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.90 | 4/6 | $2,673 | $2,429 | 52% | 68% | +$396 | -$29,457 | 184.9% | $-39,174 (vs do-nothing $-10,084) |
| $70 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 3/6 | $2,340 | $2,118 | 51% | 67% | +$267 | -$22,393 | 140.6% | $-36,953 (vs do-nothing $-7,863) |
| $70 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.05 | 2/6 | $2,288 | $2,088 | 50% | 67% | +$341 | -$15,098 | 94.8% | $-34,502 (vs do-nothing $-5,412) |
| $69 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 3/6 | $2,189 | $1,967 | 49% | 66% | +$277 | -$22,258 | 139.7% | $-36,818 (vs do-nothing $-7,728) |
| $69 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.40 | 3/6 | $2,640 | $2,418 | 47% | 66% | +$262 | -$22,543 | 141.5% | $-37,103 (vs do-nothing $-8,013) |
| $69 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 2/6 | $2,625 | $2,425 | 44% | 64% | +$275 | -$15,208 | 95.5% | $-34,612 (vs do-nothing $-5,522) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.