FORTRESS FIGHT: SPCX @ $154.89

SS: $186.00 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-06-29 23:15 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPCX @ $154.89 UNDERWATER $31.11 (16.7% below SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | SS: $186.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $150 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $60.433/sh)

SP: $195 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $54.780/sh)

HP: $135 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $21.391/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$43,500	(ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,636/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$1,363/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-13,750	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,318/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,363/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,636/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.3 mo to earn back $13,500

ML VELOCITY
4.1 mo to earn back $43,500

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at SS $186 brings only $1,909/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below SS is warranted.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 5 × $165 10 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.20 bid / $4.30 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $165)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $169.30)

75%

EV / mo

+$1,513

Gross FIGHT income	$5,727/mo
vs 50% target ($5,318/mo)	+8%
vs normal target ($10,636/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,364/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$8,400
… as % of IC ($13,500)	62.2%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	19.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,800
… cuts bleed by	-$1,363/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $5,318/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 5 contracts. IV 75% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~31% · flat exit -$951 net · free roll-up ≈ +$5/wk

Challenge odds

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$951

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$193 @ 90%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.05/sh (~25% of the $4.20 collected) or spot ≥ $169.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free.

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $163.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $163-169.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $169.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.89 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$165.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,100	$-7,146	+$6,604	+$1,400
+2.5%	$169.12 (≤1σ, normal week)	$38	$-7,371	+$6,379	-$662
+5%	$173.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,025	$-7,596	+$6,154	-$2,725
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (1.6σ)	$-8,400	$-8,290	+$5,460	-$8,600

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.63/sh now → $6.10 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$165	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.47/sh	+$1,234 cycle +$3,334	65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$170	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.56/sh	+$278 cycle +$2,378	70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$190	7 Aug 2026	34d left	+$0.32/sh	+$158 cycle +$2,258	78%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$193	17 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.79/sh	-$1,897 cycle +$203	90%
budget: banked $2,100 debit $1,897 (90% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$203 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,885/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($165) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 75% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 5 calls lose.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your contracts. Safest at the top. Going down the ladder buys income by selling a lower, more-often-breached strike. 🎯 is the primary (safest strike covering 50% of normal income). Cap @ SS is the recovery you mortgage only on a full V-bounce to SS.

Income rung	Trade	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	5 × $192 / 11d	10 Jul 2026	92%	8%	$1,364	$1	-$0	0%
🎯 50% normal	5 × $165 / 11d	10 Jul 2026	69%	31%	$5,727	$4,364	-$8,400	62%
100% normal	5 × $155 / 11d	10 Jul 2026	50%	50%	$10,636	$9,273	-$11,600	86%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	5 × $192 / 11d	5 × $165 / 11d	5 × $155 / 11d
POP this week (from today)	92%	75%	66%
Challenge means spot ≥	$192 (+24.3%)	$165 (+6.5%)	$155 (+0.1%)
Odds of that challenge	~8%	~31%	~50%
Premium banked	$500	$2,100	$3,900
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$3,059	-$951	+$1,034
Free roll-up speed	+$5/wk	+$5/wk	+$5/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$223 @ 77% 7 Aug 2026 · 34d left at challenge	$193 @ 90% 17 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge	$200 @ 90% 31 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$3,059	-$951	+$1,034
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$0 (0.0% IC)	-$8,400 (62.2% IC)	-$11,600 (85.9% IC)

Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $165 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 69%, breach 31%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,318/mo); it brings $5,727/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $155/11d for $10,636/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $192/11d (92% survival, $1,364/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $8,400 (62% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $186, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-13,800 and cuts bleed by $1,363/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $186.00 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,860

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$8,400

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,290 (+$5,460 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $310 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,600, the opportunity cost of earning $5,727/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.891 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,860 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $310

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$165	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.20	5/5	$5,727	$4,364	69%	75%	+$1,513	-$8,400	62.2%	$-8,290 (vs do-nothing $-8,600)
$162	11d	10 Jul 2026	$4.90	4/5	$5,345	$4,364	65%	73%	+$1,262	-$7,440	55.1%	$-7,290 (vs do-nothing $-7,600)
$162	18d	17 Jul 2026	$6.70	5/5	$5,583	$4,220	62%	71%	+$1,190	-$8,400	62.2%	$-8,290 (vs do-nothing $-8,600)
$160	11d	10 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$6,218	$5,237	60%	70%	+$1,284	-$8,120	60.1%	$-7,970 (vs do-nothing $-8,280)
$160	18d	17 Jul 2026	$7.50	5/5	$6,250	$4,887	58%	69%	+$1,138	-$9,250	68.5%	$-9,140 (vs do-nothing $-9,450)
$160	25d	24 Jul 2026	$9.10	5/5	$5,460	$4,097	57%	69%	+$1,037	-$8,450	62.6%	$-8,340 (vs do-nothing $-8,650)
$158	11d	10 Jul 2026	$6.60	3/5	$5,400	$4,801	55%	68%	+$943	-$6,570	48.7%	$-6,380 (vs do-nothing $-6,690)
$158	18d	17 Jul 2026	$8.50	4/5	$5,667	$4,685	54%	67%	+$927	-$8,000	59.3%	$-7,850 (vs do-nothing $-8,160)
$158	25d	24 Jul 2026	$10.10	5/5	$6,060	$4,697	54%	67%	+$1,039	-$9,200	68.1%	$-9,090 (vs do-nothing $-9,400)
$158	32d	31 Jul 2026	$11.70	5/5	$5,484	$4,121	53%	67%	+$852	-$8,400	62.2%	$-8,290 (vs do-nothing $-8,600)
$155	11d	10 Jul 2026	$7.80	3/5	$6,382	$5,782	50%	66%	+$1,042	-$6,960	51.6%	$-6,770 (vs do-nothing $-7,080)
$155	18d	17 Jul 2026	$9.60	4/5	$6,400	$5,419	50%	65%	+$932	-$8,560	63.4%	$-8,410 (vs do-nothing $-8,720)
$155	25d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	4/5	$5,376	$4,395	50%	66%	+$828	-$7,920	58.7%	$-7,770 (vs do-nothing $-8,080)

Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$155	32d	31 Jul 2026	$12.90	5/5	$6,047	$4,684	50%	65%	+$896	-$9,050	67.0%	$-8,940 (vs do-nothing $-9,250)
$155	39d	7 Aug 2026	$14.50	5/5	$5,577	$4,214	50%	65%	+$767	-$8,250	61.1%	$-8,140 (vs do-nothing $-8,450)
$152	39d	7 Aug 2026	$15.60	5/5	$6,000	$4,637	47%	64%	+$733	-$8,950	66.3%	$-8,840 (vs do-nothing $-9,150)
$152	32d	31 Jul 2026	$13.80	5/5	$6,469	$5,106	47%	64%	+$753	-$9,850	73.0%	$-9,740 (vs do-nothing $-10,050)
$152	25d	24 Jul 2026	$12.40	4/5	$5,952	$4,971	47%	64%	+$819	-$8,440	62.5%	$-8,290 (vs do-nothing $-8,600)
$152	18d	17 Jul 2026	$10.80	3/5	$5,400	$4,801	46%	64%	+$692	-$6,810	50.4%	$-6,620 (vs do-nothing $-6,930)
$152	11d	10 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$7,364	$6,764	45%	63%	+$1,007	-$7,350	54.4%	$-7,160 (vs do-nothing $-7,470)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-29 23:15