5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $182.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,795/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,690/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.45 | $726 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $160 | 80% | $4,500 | $1,485 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $175 | 17 Jul | 8d | 19.9% | 92% | 16% | $500 | $1,875 | -$2,625 | $3,467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $175 19.9% OTM over spot $146.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.02 mid) = $500 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $176.03) 93% EV / mo +$1,110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,438 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,415 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $181 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.24/sh now → $5.83 mid-life (likely $4.68–$7.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 214 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $179 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $8 below CC-SS $182.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $176.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,750 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $175): -$3,467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,467 (+$12,283 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $700 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,167, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $165 | 17 Jul | 8d | 13.0% | 86% | 29% | $875 | $3,281 | -$1,219 | $8,092 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $165 13.0% OTM over spot $146.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.80 mid) = $875 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,281/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $166.80) 88% EV / mo +$1,545 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $633 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,874 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $176 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.77/sh now → $5.50 mid-life (likely $5.09–$8.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 542 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $169 (overshoots $3.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $18 below CC-SS $182.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $166.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,750 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$8,092 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,092 (+$7,658 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $700 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,792, the opportunity cost of earning $3,281/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $160 | 17 Jul | 8d | 9.6% | 80% | 30% | $1,200 | $4,500 | — | $10,267 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 9.6% OTM over spot $146.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.47 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $162.47) 83% EV / mo +$1,715 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,354 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,465 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $174 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.54/sh now → $5.33 mid-life (likely $5.35–$8.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 905 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $164 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $23 below CC-SS $182.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.40 collected) or spot ≥ $162.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,750 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$10,267 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,267 (+$5,483 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $700 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,967, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $150 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.7% | 62% | 80% | $2,500 | $9,375 | +$4,875 | $13,967 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $150 2.7% OTM over spot $146.00 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.05 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $155.05) 72% EV / mo +$2,122 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.6] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~14.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,704 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $179 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.07/sh now → $5.00 mid-life (likely $6.55–$9.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,912 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $154 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $33 below CC-SS $182.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $155.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,750 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$13,967 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,967 (+$1,783 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $700 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,667, the opportunity cost of earning $9,375/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.853 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$15,750 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $700
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 5/5 | $4,500 | $2,810 | 80% | 83% | +$1,715 | -$10,267 | 76.0% | $-10,267 (vs do-nothing $-10,967) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 5/5 | $5,438 | $3,748 | 76% | 81% | +$1,891 | -$11,267 | 83.5% | $-11,267 (vs do-nothing $-11,967) |
| $155 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/5 | $5,100 | $3,690 | 72% | 78% | +$1,485 | -$9,813 | 72.7% | $-9,673 (vs do-nothing $-10,373) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 5/5 | $4,800 | $3,110 | 71% | 78% | +$1,282 | -$10,317 | 76.4% | $-10,317 (vs do-nothing $-11,017) |
| $155 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/5 | $4,400 | $2,990 | 68% | 76% | +$1,071 | -$8,973 | 66.5% | $-8,833 (vs do-nothing $-9,533) |
| $152.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 3/5 | $4,612 | $3,483 | 67% | 75% | +$1,168 | -$7,900 | 58.5% | $-7,620 (vs do-nothing $-8,320) |
| $152.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 4/5 | $4,960 | $3,550 | 64% | 74% | +$1,025 | -$9,693 | 71.8% | $-9,553 (vs do-nothing $-10,253) |
| $150 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/5 | $5,625 | $4,495 | 62% | 72% | +$1,273 | -$8,380 | 62.1% | $-8,100 (vs do-nothing $-8,800) |
| $150 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $5,760 | $4,350 | 60% | 71% | +$1,118 | -$10,293 | 76.2% | $-10,153 (vs do-nothing $-10,853) |
| $149 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $3,370 | 58% | 71% | +$754 | -$7,930 | 58.7% | $-7,650 (vs do-nothing $-8,350) |
| $148 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 3/5 | $4,740 | $3,610 | 57% | 70% | +$741 | -$8,110 | 60.1% | $-7,830 (vs do-nothing $-8,530) |
| $147 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.40 | 3/5 | $5,040 | $3,910 | 55% | 69% | +$775 | -$8,260 | 61.2% | $-7,980 (vs do-nothing $-8,680) |
| $146 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 3/5 | $5,280 | $4,150 | 53% | 68% | +$737 | -$8,440 | 62.5% | $-8,160 (vs do-nothing $-8,860) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.30 | 3/5 | $5,580 | $4,450 | 51% | 67% | +$746 | -$8,590 | 63.6% | $-8,310 (vs do-nothing $-9,010) |
| $145 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $5,250 | $4,400 | 50% | 67% | +$739 | -$6,187 | 45.8% | $-5,767 (vs do-nothing $-6,467) |
| $144 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.70 | 3/5 | $5,820 | $4,690 | 49% | 67% | +$682 | -$8,770 | 65.0% | $-8,490 (vs do-nothing $-9,190) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.