5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $183.69 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,880/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,619/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-14,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $185C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.45 | $726 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $165 | 80% | $4,219 | $1,345 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $180 | 17 Jul | 8d | 19.4% | 92% | 17% | $450 | $1,688 | -$2,531 | $1,394 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $180 19.4% OTM over spot $150.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.95 mid) = $450 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $180.95) 92% EV / mo +$734 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,325 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,439 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $187 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.17/sh now → $5.78 mid-life (likely $4.69–$7.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 192 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $184 (overshoots $4.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $4 below CC-SS $183.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $180.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,275 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $180): -$1,394 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,394 (+$12,881 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,144, the opportunity cost of earning $1,688/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $170 | 17 Jul | 8d | 12.8% | 85% | 31% | $800 | $3,000 | -$1,219 | $6,044 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $170 12.8% OTM over spot $150.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.65 mid) = $800 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $171.65) 87% EV / mo +$1,079 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.5-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $500 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,928 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $179 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.72/sh now → $5.46 mid-life (likely $5.27–$8.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 582 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $174 (overshoots $4.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $14 below CC-SS $183.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $171.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,275 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $170): -$6,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,044 (+$8,231 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,794, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $165 | 17 Jul | 8d | 9.5% | 80% | 29% | $1,125 | $4,219 | — | $8,219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $165 9.5% OTM over spot $150.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.33 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,219/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $167.32) 83% EV / mo +$1,278 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,523 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $179 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.49/sh now → $5.30 mid-life (likely $5.32–$8.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 868 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $169 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $19 below CC-SS $183.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot ≥ $167.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,275 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$8,219 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,219 (+$6,056 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,969, the opportunity cost of earning $4,219/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $155 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.8% | 62% | 79% | $2,350 | $8,812 | +$4,594 | $11,994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 2.8% OTM over spot $150.72 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.80 mid) = $2,350 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $159.80) 72% EV / mo +$1,501 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-2.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,818 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$138 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $184 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.98 mid-life (likely $6.54–$9.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,910 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $159 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $29 below CC-SS $183.69: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.18/sh (~25% of the $4.70 collected) or spot ≥ $159.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.69, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,275 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$11,994 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,994 (+$2,281 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,744, the opportunity cost of earning $8,812/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.866 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,275 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $750
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $165 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 5/5 | $4,219 | $2,600 | 80% | 83% | +$1,278 | -$8,219 | 60.9% | $-8,219 (vs do-nothing $-8,969) |
| $162.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 4/5 | $3,975 | $2,656 | 76% | 80% | +$1,029 | -$7,415 | 54.9% | $-7,265 (vs do-nothing $-8,015) |
| $160 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $4,950 | $3,631 | 72% | 78% | +$1,246 | -$8,155 | 60.4% | $-8,005 (vs do-nothing $-8,755) |
| $162.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 5/5 | $4,400 | $2,781 | 71% | 77% | +$812 | -$8,394 | 62.2% | $-8,394 (vs do-nothing $-9,144) |
| $160 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/5 | $4,160 | $2,841 | 68% | 75% | +$780 | -$7,395 | 54.8% | $-7,245 (vs do-nothing $-7,995) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 3/5 | $4,388 | $3,369 | 67% | 75% | +$891 | -$6,686 | 49.5% | $-6,386 (vs do-nothing $-7,136) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 4/5 | $4,560 | $3,241 | 64% | 73% | +$582 | -$8,195 | 60.7% | $-8,045 (vs do-nothing $-8,795) |
| $155 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 3/5 | $5,288 | $4,269 | 62% | 72% | +$901 | -$7,196 | 53.3% | $-6,896 (vs do-nothing $-7,646) |
| $155 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $3,960 | $2,941 | 60% | 71% | +$455 | -$6,626 | 49.1% | $-6,326 (vs do-nothing $-7,076) |
| $152.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $3,481 | 56% | 69% | +$552 | -$5,118 | 37.9% | $-4,668 (vs do-nothing $-5,418) |
| $152.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $3,481 | 56% | 69% | +$394 | -$7,106 | 52.6% | $-6,806 (vs do-nothing $-7,556) |
| $150 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/5 | $5,160 | $4,141 | 52% | 67% | +$370 | -$7,526 | 55.8% | $-7,226 (vs do-nothing $-7,976) |
| $150 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 2/5 | $5,025 | $4,306 | 50% | 66% | +$514 | -$5,398 | 40.0% | $-4,948 (vs do-nothing $-5,698) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 3/5 | $5,340 | $4,321 | 50% | 66% | +$253 | -$7,736 | 57.3% | $-7,436 (vs do-nothing $-8,186) |
| $148 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.70 | 3/5 | $5,820 | $4,801 | 48% | 66% | +$421 | -$7,796 | 57.8% | $-7,496 (vs do-nothing $-8,246) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.