5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $182.81 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,676/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,833/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,975 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.09 | $546 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 5 × $152.50 | 91% | $4,500 | $2,906 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 5 × $150 | 77% | $4,500 | $1,383 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $157.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 14.2% | 95% | 10% | $275 | $2,750 | -$1,750 | $12,382 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 14.2% OTM over spot $137.94 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.57 mid) = $275 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $158.07) 95% EV / mo +$2,166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,245 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,677 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $175 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.52/sh now → $3.90 mid-life (likely $3.10–$5.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 103 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $160 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $25 below CC-SS $182.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $158.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,533 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$12,382 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,824 (+$6,151 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,192 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,632, the opportunity cost of earning $2,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $152.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 10.6% | 91% | 8% | $450 | $4,500 | — | $14,707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $152.50 10.6% OTM over spot $137.94 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid) = $450 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $153.43) 92% EV / mo +$3,128 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,143 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,440 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $172 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.78 mid-life (likely $3.52–$6.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 253 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $156 (overshoots $3.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $30 below CC-SS $182.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $153.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,533 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $152.50): -$14,707 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,149 (+$3,826 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,192 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,957, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $145 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.1% | 77% | 48% | $840 | $8,400 | +$3,900 | $14,286 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $145 5.1% OTM over spot $137.94 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.12 mid) = $840 credit for the 3d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $145) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $147.12) 82% EV / mo +$4,277 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.4] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~14.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,293 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$598 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $175 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.08/sh now → $3.59 mid-life (likely $3.91–$7.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 866 simulated challenges: the $145 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $148 (overshoots $3.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $145 is $38 below CC-SS $182.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $147.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $145)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,533 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $145): -$14,286 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $185): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,678 (+$4,297 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,192 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,486, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $162.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 17.8% | 90% | 20% | $625 | $1,875 | -$2,625 | $9,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $162.50 17.8% OTM over spot $137.94 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.30 mid) = $625 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $163.80) 91% EV / mo +$1,041 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.4] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,070 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,388 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $171 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.52/sh now → $6.03 mid-life (likely $4.85–$8.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 359 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $166 (overshoots $3.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $20 below CC-SS $182.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $163.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,533 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $162.50): -$9,532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,974 (+$9,001 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,192 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,782, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $157.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 14.2% | 86% | 28% | $875 | $2,625 | -$1,875 | $11,782 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 14.2% OTM over spot $137.94 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.80 mid) = $875 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $159.30) 88% EV / mo +$1,330 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,990 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,045 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $168 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.26/sh now → $5.84 mid-life (likely $5.32–$8.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 589 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $161 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $25 below CC-SS $182.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $159.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,533 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$11,782 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,224 (+$6,751 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,192 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,032, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $150 | 24 Jul | 10d | 8.7% | 77% | 37% | $1,500 | $4,500 | — | $14,907 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $150 8.7% OTM over spot $137.94 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.05 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $153.05) 82% EV / mo +$1,915 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.5] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,458 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,281 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $165 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.86/sh now → $5.56 mid-life (likely $5.90–$8.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,121 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $153 (overshoots $3.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $33 below CC-SS $182.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $153.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,533 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$14,907 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,349 (+$3,626 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,192 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,157, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $142 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.9% | 62% | 80% | $2,650 | $7,950 | +$3,450 | $17,757 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $142 2.9% OTM over spot $137.94 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $5.40 mid) = $2,650 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $142) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $147.40) 73% EV / mo +$2,059 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,989 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$17 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $167 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.44/sh now → $5.27 mid-life (likely $6.87–$9.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,986 simulated challenges: the $142 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $145 (overshoots $3.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $142 is $41 below CC-SS $182.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.32/sh (~25% of the $5.30 collected) or spot ≥ $147.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $142)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,533 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $142): -$17,757 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,199 (+$776 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,192 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,007, the opportunity cost of earning $7,950/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.826 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,533 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,192
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $152.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 5/5 | $4,500 | $4,500 | 91% | 92% | +$3,128 | -$14,707 | 108.9% | $-16,149 (vs do-nothing $-14,957) |
| $150 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 4/5 | $4,600 | $4,750 | 87% | 89% | +$2,893 | -$12,666 | 93.8% | $-14,058 (vs do-nothing $-12,866) |
| $150 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/5 | $4,500 | $4,500 | 77% | 82% | +$1,915 | -$14,907 | 110.4% | $-16,349 (vs do-nothing $-15,157) |
| $145 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $4,650 | 77% | 82% | +$2,139 | -$7,143 | 52.9% | $-8,435 (vs do-nothing $-7,243) |
| $149 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 4/5 | $3,840 | $3,990 | 76% | 81% | +$1,530 | -$12,246 | 90.7% | $-13,638 (vs do-nothing $-12,446) |
| $148 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/5 | $4,080 | $4,230 | 74% | 80% | +$1,437 | -$12,566 | 93.1% | $-13,958 (vs do-nothing $-12,766) |
| $150 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 5/5 | $4,059 | $4,059 | 73% | 79% | +$1,316 | -$14,107 | 104.5% | $-15,549 (vs do-nothing $-14,357) |
| $147 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 4/5 | $4,440 | $4,590 | 72% | 79% | +$1,576 | -$12,846 | 95.2% | $-14,238 (vs do-nothing $-13,046) |
| $149 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 5/5 | $4,324 | $4,324 | 72% | 78% | +$1,361 | -$14,457 | 107.1% | $-15,899 (vs do-nothing $-14,707) |
| $146 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/5 | $4,800 | $4,950 | 70% | 78% | +$1,638 | -$13,126 | 97.2% | $-14,518 (vs do-nothing $-13,326) |
| $148 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 5/5 | $4,500 | $4,500 | 70% | 77% | +$1,309 | -$14,857 | 110.1% | $-16,299 (vs do-nothing $-15,107) |
| $147 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 5/5 | $4,765 | $4,765 | 69% | 76% | +$1,329 | -$15,207 | 112.6% | $-16,649 (vs do-nothing $-15,457) |
| $145 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/5 | $3,870 | $4,170 | 68% | 76% | +$1,231 | -$10,054 | 74.5% | $-11,396 (vs do-nothing $-10,204) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $146 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 4/5 | $4,094 | $4,244 | 67% | 76% | +$1,136 | -$12,406 | 91.9% | $-13,798 (vs do-nothing $-12,606) |
| $142 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/5 | $6,000 | $6,450 | 67% | 77% | +$2,493 | -$7,563 | 56.0% | $-8,855 (vs do-nothing $-7,663) |
| $144 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/5 | $4,140 | $4,440 | 66% | 75% | +$1,224 | -$10,264 | 76.0% | $-11,606 (vs do-nothing $-10,414) |
| $145 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $4,306 | $4,456 | 65% | 75% | +$1,125 | -$12,686 | 94.0% | $-14,078 (vs do-nothing $-12,886) |
| $143 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $4,410 | $4,710 | 64% | 74% | +$1,196 | -$10,474 | 77.6% | $-11,816 (vs do-nothing $-10,624) |
| $144 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 4/5 | $4,588 | $4,738 | 64% | 74% | +$1,170 | -$12,926 | 95.7% | $-14,318 (vs do-nothing $-13,126) |
| $141 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/5 | $6,600 | $7,050 | 63% | 75% | +$2,451 | -$7,703 | 57.1% | $-8,995 (vs do-nothing $-7,803) |
| $143 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 4/5 | $4,800 | $4,950 | 62% | 73% | +$1,129 | -$13,206 | 97.8% | $-14,598 (vs do-nothing $-13,406) |
| $142 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/5 | $4,770 | $5,070 | 62% | 73% | +$1,235 | -$10,654 | 78.9% | $-11,996 (vs do-nothing $-10,804) |
| $142 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $5,082 | $5,232 | 60% | 72% | +$1,144 | -$13,446 | 99.6% | $-14,838 (vs do-nothing $-13,646) |
| $140 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 2/5 | $7,400 | $7,850 | 60% | 73% | +$2,527 | -$7,823 | 57.9% | $-9,115 (vs do-nothing $-7,923) |
| $141 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $5,130 | $5,430 | 60% | 72% | +$1,251 | -$10,834 | 80.3% | $-12,176 (vs do-nothing $-10,984) |
| $141 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/5 | $4,024 | $4,324 | 59% | 71% | +$857 | -$10,264 | 76.0% | $-11,606 (vs do-nothing $-10,414) |
| $140 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $5,490 | $5,790 | 57% | 71% | +$1,243 | -$11,014 | 81.6% | $-12,356 (vs do-nothing $-11,164) |
| $140 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 3/5 | $4,288 | $4,588 | 57% | 70% | +$898 | -$10,414 | 77.1% | $-11,756 (vs do-nothing $-10,564) |
| $139 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 1/5 | $4,200 | $4,800 | 56% | 71% | +$1,358 | -$3,961 | 29.3% | $-5,203 (vs do-nothing $-4,011) |
| $139 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $4,800 | 55% | 69% | +$873 | -$10,594 | 78.5% | $-11,936 (vs do-nothing $-10,744) |
| $139 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 2/5 | $3,960 | $4,410 | 55% | 70% | +$891 | -$7,443 | 55.1% | $-8,735 (vs do-nothing $-7,543) |
| $138 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.70 | 3/5 | $4,606 | $4,906 | 53% | 69% | +$729 | -$10,834 | 80.3% | $-12,176 (vs do-nothing $-10,984) |
| $138 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $4,650 | 53% | 68% | +$829 | -$7,563 | 56.0% | $-8,855 (vs do-nothing $-7,663) |
| $138 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 1/5 | $4,600 | $5,200 | 52% | 70% | +$1,306 | -$4,021 | 29.8% | $-5,263 (vs do-nothing $-4,071) |
| $137 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 3/5 | $4,818 | $5,118 | 51% | 68% | +$680 | -$11,014 | 81.6% | $-12,356 (vs do-nothing $-11,164) |
| $137 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 2/5 | $4,440 | $4,890 | 50% | 67% | +$774 | -$7,683 | 56.9% | $-8,975 (vs do-nothing $-7,783) |
| $136 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.90 | 3/5 | $5,241 | $5,541 | 50% | 67% | +$831 | -$11,074 | 82.0% | $-12,416 (vs do-nothing $-11,224) |
| $136 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 2/5 | $4,680 | $5,130 | 48% | 66% | +$702 | -$7,803 | 57.8% | $-9,095 (vs do-nothing $-7,903) |
| $137 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 1/5 | $5,100 | $5,700 | 48% | 68% | +$1,305 | -$4,071 | 30.2% | $-5,313 (vs do-nothing $-4,121) |
| $136 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 1/5 | $5,700 | $6,300 | 43% | 66% | +$1,350 | -$4,111 | 30.5% | $-5,353 (vs do-nothing $-4,161) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.