5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $182.37 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,699/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,766/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,375 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $175C 17 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.09 | $546 | 2026-07-10 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 5 × $155 | 93% | $4,500 | $2,411 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 5 × $152.50 | 75% | $4,650 | $1,592 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $155 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.7% | 93% | 15% | $270 | $2,700 | -$1,800 | $7,940 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $155 9.7% OTM over spot $141.28 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid) = $270 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $155.93) 94% EV / mo +$2,227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.4] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,765 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$789 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $174 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.99/sh now → $3.53 mid-life (likely $3.42–$6.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 340 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $159 (overshoots $3.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $27 below CC-SS $182.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $155.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,074 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $155): -$7,940 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $185): +$100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,141 (+$9,234 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,090, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $155 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.7% | 93% | 12% | $450 | $4,500 | — | $13,233 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 9.7% OTM over spot $141.28 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid) = $450 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $155.93) 94% EV / mo +$3,712 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,286 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,315 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $174 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.99/sh now → $3.53 mid-life (likely $3.43–$6.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 355 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $159 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $27 below CC-SS $182.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $155.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,074 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$13,233 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,535 (+$3,840 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,483, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $150 | 17 Jul | 3d | 6.2% | 83% | 35% | $775 | $7,750 | +$3,250 | $15,408 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $150 6.2% OTM over spot $141.28 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.60 mid) = $775 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $151.60) 87% EV / mo +$4,908 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,497 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$933 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $176 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.82–$6.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 716 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $154 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $32 below CC-SS $182.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.55 collected) or spot ≥ $151.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,074 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$15,408 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,710 (+$1,665 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,658, the opportunity cost of earning $7,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 18.6% | 91% | 20% | $575 | $1,725 | -$2,925 | $6,858 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $167.50 18.6% OTM over spot $141.28 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.20 mid) = $575 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $168.70) 91% EV / mo +$876 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-4.5] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,761 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,426 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $174 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.49/sh now → $6.00 mid-life (likely $4.73–$8.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $171 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $15 below CC-SS $182.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $168.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,074 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $167.50): -$6,858 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,160 (+$10,215 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,108, the opportunity cost of earning $1,725/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $160 | 24 Jul | 10d | 13.3% | 85% | 31% | $900 | $2,700 | -$1,950 | $10,283 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 13.3% OTM over spot $141.28 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.85 mid) = $900 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $161.85) 87% EV / mo +$1,148 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.9] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,711 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,967 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $169 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.11/sh now → $5.73 mid-life (likely $5.27–$8.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 617 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $164 (overshoots $3.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $22 below CC-SS $182.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $161.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,074 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$10,283 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,585 (+$6,790 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,533, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $152.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 7.9% | 75% | 37% | $1,550 | $4,650 | — | $13,383 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $152.50 7.9% OTM over spot $141.28 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $3.15 mid) = $1,550 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $155.65) 80% EV / mo +$1,595 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,535 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,182 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $169 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.73/sh now → $5.46 mid-life (likely $5.82–$8.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,119 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $156 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $30 below CC-SS $182.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $155.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,074 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $152.50): -$13,383 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,685 (+$3,690 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,633, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $145 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.6% | 61% | 82% | $2,650 | $7,950 | +$3,300 | $16,033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $145 2.6% OTM over spot $141.28 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $5.40 mid) = $2,650 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $145) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $150.40) 72% EV / mo +$1,845 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~12.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,007 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$52 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $171 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.35/sh now → $5.20 mid-life (likely $6.92–$9.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,009 simulated challenges: the $145 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $148 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $145 is $37 below CC-SS $182.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.32/sh (~25% of the $5.30 collected) or spot ≥ $150.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $145)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.83 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $182.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,375 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,074 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $145): -$16,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,335 (+$1,040 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,051 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,283, the opportunity cost of earning $7,950/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.831 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,074 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,051
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 5/5 | $4,500 | $4,500 | 93% | 94% | +$3,712 | -$13,233 | 98.0% | $-14,535 (vs do-nothing $-13,483) |
| $152.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 4/5 | $4,600 | $4,750 | 85% | 87% | +$2,250 | -$11,487 | 85.1% | $-12,738 (vs do-nothing $-11,687) |
| $150 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 3/5 | $4,650 | $4,950 | 83% | 87% | +$2,945 | -$9,245 | 68.5% | $-10,446 (vs do-nothing $-9,395) |
| $149 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 3/5 | $5,250 | $5,550 | 80% | 85% | +$3,105 | -$9,485 | 70.3% | $-10,686 (vs do-nothing $-9,635) |
| $148 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 2/5 | $4,000 | $4,450 | 77% | 83% | +$2,218 | -$6,473 | 48.0% | $-7,625 (vs do-nothing $-6,573) |
| $152.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $4,650 | $4,650 | 75% | 80% | +$1,595 | -$13,383 | 99.1% | $-14,685 (vs do-nothing $-13,633) |
| $147 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $4,950 | 74% | 81% | +$2,298 | -$6,623 | 49.1% | $-7,775 (vs do-nothing $-6,723) |
| $152.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 5/5 | $4,147 | $4,147 | 72% | 78% | +$1,208 | -$12,583 | 93.2% | $-13,885 (vs do-nothing $-12,833) |
| $150 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 4/5 | $4,440 | $4,590 | 71% | 78% | +$1,355 | -$11,467 | 84.9% | $-12,718 (vs do-nothing $-11,667) |
| $146 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 2/5 | $5,100 | $5,550 | 70% | 79% | +$2,405 | -$6,763 | 50.1% | $-7,915 (vs do-nothing $-6,863) |
| $149 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/5 | $4,800 | $4,950 | 69% | 77% | +$1,414 | -$11,747 | 87.0% | $-12,998 (vs do-nothing $-11,947) |
| $150 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 4/5 | $3,882 | $4,032 | 68% | 76% | +$1,030 | -$10,747 | 79.6% | $-11,998 (vs do-nothing $-10,947) |
| $148 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/5 | $3,870 | $4,170 | 67% | 76% | +$1,084 | -$9,020 | 66.8% | $-10,221 (vs do-nothing $-9,170) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 4/5 | $4,094 | $4,244 | 66% | 75% | +$1,056 | -$11,027 | 81.7% | $-12,278 (vs do-nothing $-11,227) |
| $145 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 2/5 | $5,800 | $6,250 | 65% | 75% | +$1,857 | -$6,893 | 51.1% | $-8,045 (vs do-nothing $-6,993) |
| $147 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 3/5 | $4,140 | $4,440 | 65% | 74% | +$1,086 | -$9,230 | 68.4% | $-10,431 (vs do-nothing $-9,380) |
| $148 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $4,306 | $4,456 | 65% | 74% | +$1,040 | -$11,307 | 83.8% | $-12,558 (vs do-nothing $-11,507) |
| $146 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $4,410 | $4,710 | 63% | 73% | +$1,064 | -$9,440 | 69.9% | $-10,641 (vs do-nothing $-9,590) |
| $147 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 4/5 | $4,588 | $4,738 | 63% | 73% | +$1,082 | -$11,547 | 85.5% | $-12,798 (vs do-nothing $-11,747) |
| $144 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 2/5 | $6,400 | $6,850 | 62% | 73% | +$1,788 | -$7,033 | 52.1% | $-8,185 (vs do-nothing $-7,133) |
| $146 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 4/5 | $4,871 | $5,021 | 61% | 72% | +$1,058 | -$11,787 | 87.3% | $-13,038 (vs do-nothing $-11,987) |
| $145 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/5 | $4,770 | $5,070 | 61% | 72% | +$1,107 | -$9,620 | 71.3% | $-10,821 (vs do-nothing $-9,770) |
| $145 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $3,865 | $4,165 | 60% | 71% | +$803 | -$9,020 | 66.8% | $-10,221 (vs do-nothing $-9,170) |
| $144 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $5,130 | $5,430 | 59% | 71% | +$1,125 | -$9,800 | 72.6% | $-11,001 (vs do-nothing $-9,950) |
| $143 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 2/5 | $7,200 | $7,650 | 58% | 71% | +$1,811 | -$7,153 | 53.0% | $-8,305 (vs do-nothing $-7,253) |
| $144 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 3/5 | $4,076 | $4,376 | 58% | 71% | +$800 | -$9,200 | 68.1% | $-10,401 (vs do-nothing $-9,350) |
| $143 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $5,490 | $5,790 | 56% | 70% | +$1,117 | -$9,980 | 73.9% | $-11,181 (vs do-nothing $-10,130) |
| $143 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 3/5 | $4,288 | $4,588 | 56% | 70% | +$786 | -$9,380 | 69.5% | $-10,581 (vs do-nothing $-9,530) |
| $142 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/5 | $4,553 | $4,853 | 54% | 69% | +$810 | -$9,530 | 70.6% | $-10,731 (vs do-nothing $-9,680) |
| $142 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 1/5 | $4,100 | $4,700 | 54% | 69% | +$964 | -$3,627 | 26.9% | $-4,728 (vs do-nothing $-3,677) |
| $142 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 2/5 | $3,960 | $4,410 | 54% | 69% | +$781 | -$6,753 | 50.0% | $-7,905 (vs do-nothing $-6,853) |
| $141 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.00 | 3/5 | $4,765 | $5,065 | 53% | 68% | +$769 | -$9,710 | 71.9% | $-10,911 (vs do-nothing $-9,860) |
| $141 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 2/5 | $4,260 | $4,710 | 52% | 68% | +$798 | -$6,853 | 50.8% | $-8,005 (vs do-nothing $-6,953) |
| $140 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 3/5 | $4,976 | $5,276 | 51% | 67% | +$717 | -$9,890 | 73.3% | $-11,091 (vs do-nothing $-10,040) |
| $141 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 1/5 | $4,500 | $5,100 | 50% | 67% | +$876 | -$3,687 | 27.3% | $-4,788 (vs do-nothing $-3,737) |
| $140 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $4,950 | 49% | 67% | +$737 | -$6,973 | 51.7% | $-8,125 (vs do-nothing $-7,073) |
| $139 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.90 | 3/5 | $5,241 | $5,541 | 49% | 67% | +$706 | -$10,040 | 74.4% | $-11,241 (vs do-nothing $-10,190) |
| $139 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 2/5 | $4,620 | $5,070 | 47% | 66% | +$537 | -$7,133 | 52.8% | $-8,285 (vs do-nothing $-7,233) |
| $140 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 1/5 | $5,100 | $5,700 | 47% | 66% | +$945 | -$3,727 | 27.6% | $-4,828 (vs do-nothing $-3,777) |
| $139 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 1/5 | $5,600 | $6,200 | 43% | 64% | +$871 | -$3,777 | 28.0% | $-4,878 (vs do-nothing $-3,827) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.