5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $183.78 (banked floor $182.49) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,864/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,565/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $133 | 84% | $4,500 | $1,661 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $131 | 71% | $4,636 | $1,213 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $138 | 24 Jul | 4d | 13.3% | 90% | 20% | +6pp | $350 | $2,625 | -$1,875 | $22,540 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $138 13.3% OTM over spot $121.75 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.72 mid) = $350 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $138) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $138.72) 91% EV / mo +$1,300 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,631/mo median; plan ~$1,109/mo after 68% keep · $9,364 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,463 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $171 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $3.04–$6.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 276 simulated challenges: the $138 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $141 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $138 is $46 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $138.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $138)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $138): -$22,540 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,153 (+$597 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,765, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $136 | 24 Jul | 4d | 11.7% | 88% | 25% | +9pp | $425 | $3,188 | -$1,312 | $23,465 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $136 11.7% OTM over spot $121.75 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $425 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $136) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $136.88) 89% EV / mo +$1,447 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,899/mo median; plan ~$1,291/mo after 68% keep · $11,355 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-5.1], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,362 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $169 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $3.47–$5.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 447 simulated challenges: the $136 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $139 (overshoots $3.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $136 is $48 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $136.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $136)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $136): -$23,465 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,078 ($-328 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,690, the opportunity cost of earning $3,188/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $133 | 24 Jul | 4d | 9.2% | 84% | 22% | +14pp | $600 | $4,500 | — | $24,790 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $133 9.2% OTM over spot $121.75 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.23 mid) = $600 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $133) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $134.22) 86% EV / mo +$1,855 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,398/mo median; plan ~$1,630/mo after 68% keep · $14,025 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-5.1], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,147 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $169 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.94/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $3.50–$6.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 650 simulated challenges: the $133 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $136 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $133 is $51 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $134.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $133)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $133): -$24,790 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,403 ($-1,653 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,015, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $127 | 24 Jul | 4d | 4.3% | 70% | 63% | +20pp | $1,200 | $9,000 | +$4,500 | $27,190 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $127 4.3% OTM over spot $121.75 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.42 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $127) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $129.43) 76% EV / mo +$2,396 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,485/mo median; plan ~$2,370/mo after 68% keep · $18,604 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-4.7], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$469 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $163 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.72/sh now → $3.34 mid-life (likely $4.11–$6.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,304 simulated challenges: the $127 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $130 (overshoots $3.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $127 is $57 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.40 collected) or spot ≥ $129.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $127)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $127): -$27,190 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,803 ($-4,053 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,415, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $148 | 31 Jul | 11d | 21.6% | 91% | 18% | +3pp | $600 | $1,636 | -$3,000 | $17,290 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $148 21.6% OTM over spot $121.75 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.25 mid) = $600 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,636/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $148) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $149.25) 92% EV / mo +$987 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,043/mo median; plan ~$709/mo after 68% keep · $6,769 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.6], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,328 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $166 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.28/sh now → $5.86 mid-life (likely $4.81–$7.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 348 simulated challenges: the $148 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $152 (overshoots $3.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $148 is $36 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $149.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $148)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $148): -$17,290 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,903 (+$5,847 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,515, the opportunity cost of earning $1,636/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $137 | 31 Jul | 11d | 12.5% | 80% | 41% | +6pp | $1,125 | $3,068 | -$1,568 | $22,265 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $137 12.5% OTM over spot $121.75 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.30 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,068/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $137) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $139.30) 83% EV / mo +$892 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,470/mo median; plan ~$1,000/mo after 68% keep · $9,849 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-5.3], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,585 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $162 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.66/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $5.37–$8.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 964 simulated challenges: the $137 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $141 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $137 is $47 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot ≥ $139.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $137)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $137): -$22,265 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,878 (+$872 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,490, the opportunity cost of earning $3,068/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $131 | 31 Jul | 11d | 7.6% | 71% | 48% | +7pp | $1,700 | $4,636 | — | $24,690 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $131 7.6% OTM over spot $121.75 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.45 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,636/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $131) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $134.45) 77% EV / mo +$744 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,741/mo median; plan ~$1,184/mo after 68% keep · $12,044 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$891 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $164 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.33/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $6.09–$8.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,453 simulated challenges: the $131 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $134 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $131 is $53 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $134.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $131)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $131): -$24,690 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,303 ($-1,553 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,915, the opportunity cost of earning $4,636/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $122 | 31 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 54% | 99% | +12pp | $3,250 | $8,864 | +$4,227 | $27,640 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $122 0.2% OTM over spot $121.75 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.60 mid) = $3,250 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,864/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $122) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $128.60) 67% EV / mo +$545 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,323/mo median; plan ~$1,579/mo after 68% keep · $14,296 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-4.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 82% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$837 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $155 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.82/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $6.85–$9.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,450 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $126 (overshoots $4.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $122 is $62 below CC-SS $183.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $128.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $122)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,137 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $122): -$27,640 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,253 ($-4,503 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,388 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,865, the opportunity cost of earning $8,864/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 43 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.746 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,137 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,388
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $133 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 5/5 | $4,500 | $4,500 | 84% | 86% | +$1,855 | -$24,790 | 183.6% | $-28,403 (vs do-nothing $-25,015) |
| $132 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 5/5 | $4,875 | $4,875 | 82% | 84% | +$1,742 | -$25,240 | 187.0% | $-28,853 (vs do-nothing $-25,465) |
| $131 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $4,623 | 80% | 83% | +$1,586 | -$20,512 | 151.9% | $-24,080 (vs do-nothing $-20,692) |
| $130 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 4/5 | $4,950 | $5,073 | 78% | 82% | +$1,613 | -$20,852 | 154.5% | $-24,420 (vs do-nothing $-21,032) |
| $129 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 4/5 | $5,700 | $5,823 | 75% | 80% | +$1,758 | -$21,152 | 156.7% | $-24,720 (vs do-nothing $-21,332) |
| $128 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 3/5 | $4,725 | $4,970 | 72% | 78% | +$1,257 | -$16,104 | 119.3% | $-19,627 (vs do-nothing $-16,239) |
| $131 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $4,636 | $4,636 | 71% | 77% | +$744 | -$24,690 | 182.9% | $-28,303 (vs do-nothing $-24,915) |
| $133 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 5/5 | $4,583 | $4,583 | 71% | 78% | +$1,358 | -$22,640 | 167.7% | $-26,253 (vs do-nothing $-22,865) |
| $132 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.80 | 5/5 | $4,833 | $4,833 | 70% | 77% | +$1,379 | -$22,990 | 170.3% | $-26,603 (vs do-nothing $-23,215) |
| $127 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.40 | 3/5 | $5,400 | $5,645 | 70% | 76% | +$1,438 | -$16,314 | 120.8% | $-19,837 (vs do-nothing $-16,449) |
| $130 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $4,909 | $4,909 | 70% | 76% | +$646 | -$25,090 | 185.9% | $-28,703 (vs do-nothing $-25,315) |
| $131 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 5/5 | $5,083 | $5,083 | 68% | 76% | +$1,387 | -$23,340 | 172.9% | $-26,953 (vs do-nothing $-23,565) |
| $129 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/5 | $5,318 | $5,318 | 68% | 75% | +$656 | -$25,440 | 188.4% | $-29,053 (vs do-nothing $-25,665) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $130 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 5/5 | $5,333 | $5,333 | 67% | 75% | +$1,381 | -$23,690 | 175.5% | $-27,303 (vs do-nothing $-23,915) |
| $126 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 3/5 | $6,075 | $6,320 | 66% | 74% | +$1,407 | -$16,524 | 122.4% | $-20,047 (vs do-nothing $-16,659) |
| $128 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 4/5 | $4,582 | $4,705 | 66% | 73% | +$510 | -$20,632 | 152.8% | $-24,200 (vs do-nothing $-20,812) |
| $129 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.70 | 4/5 | $4,467 | $4,589 | 65% | 75% | +$1,089 | -$19,232 | 142.5% | $-22,800 (vs do-nothing $-19,412) |
| $130 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 5/5 | $4,920 | $4,920 | 65% | 74% | +$939 | -$22,790 | 168.8% | $-26,403 (vs do-nothing $-23,015) |
| $128 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 4/5 | $4,733 | $4,856 | 64% | 74% | +$1,129 | -$19,472 | 144.2% | $-23,040 (vs do-nothing $-19,652) |
| $127 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 4/5 | $4,909 | $5,032 | 64% | 72% | +$471 | -$20,912 | 154.9% | $-24,480 (vs do-nothing $-21,092) |
| $125 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $4,868 | 63% | 73% | +$907 | -$11,156 | 82.6% | $-14,634 (vs do-nothing $-11,246) |
| $127 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 4/5 | $5,000 | $5,123 | 62% | 73% | +$1,157 | -$19,712 | 146.0% | $-23,280 (vs do-nothing $-19,892) |
| $126 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/5 | $5,345 | $5,468 | 62% | 71% | +$516 | -$21,152 | 156.7% | $-24,720 (vs do-nothing $-21,332) |
| $126 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.80 | 4/5 | $5,200 | $5,323 | 61% | 72% | +$1,106 | -$19,992 | 148.1% | $-23,560 (vs do-nothing $-20,172) |
| $125 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/5 | $5,673 | $5,795 | 60% | 70% | +$427 | -$21,432 | 158.8% | $-25,000 (vs do-nothing $-21,612) |
| $124 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 2/5 | $5,100 | $5,468 | 60% | 71% | +$970 | -$11,276 | 83.5% | $-14,754 (vs do-nothing $-11,366) |
| $125 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.20 | 4/5 | $5,467 | $5,589 | 59% | 72% | +$1,110 | -$20,232 | 149.9% | $-23,800 (vs do-nothing $-20,412) |
| $125 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.20 | 4/5 | $4,896 | $5,019 | 59% | 71% | +$791 | -$19,432 | 143.9% | $-23,000 (vs do-nothing $-19,612) |
| $124 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $4,582 | $4,827 | 58% | 69% | +$315 | -$16,254 | 120.4% | $-19,777 (vs do-nothing $-16,389) |
| $124 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.70 | 4/5 | $5,800 | $5,923 | 58% | 71% | +$1,167 | -$20,432 | 151.3% | $-24,000 (vs do-nothing $-20,612) |
| $123 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/5 | $5,700 | $6,068 | 56% | 69% | +$978 | -$11,396 | 84.4% | $-14,874 (vs do-nothing $-11,486) |
| $123 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.10 | 3/5 | $4,550 | $4,795 | 56% | 70% | +$859 | -$15,504 | 114.8% | $-19,027 (vs do-nothing $-15,639) |
| $123 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/5 | $4,909 | $5,155 | 56% | 68% | +$290 | -$16,434 | 121.7% | $-19,957 (vs do-nothing $-16,569) |
| $122 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.40 | 3/5 | $4,700 | $4,945 | 54% | 69% | +$783 | -$15,714 | 116.4% | $-19,237 (vs do-nothing $-15,849) |
| $122 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $5,318 | $5,564 | 54% | 67% | +$327 | -$16,584 | 122.8% | $-20,107 (vs do-nothing $-16,719) |
| $121 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.80 | 3/5 | $4,900 | $5,145 | 53% | 68% | +$496 | -$15,894 | 117.7% | $-19,417 (vs do-nothing $-16,029) |
| $122 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 2/5 | $6,300 | $6,668 | 53% | 67% | +$901 | -$11,516 | 85.3% | $-14,994 (vs do-nothing $-11,606) |
| $120 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.10 | 4/5 | $5,808 | $5,931 | 53% | 68% | +$546 | -$20,672 | 153.1% | $-24,240 (vs do-nothing $-20,852) |
| $121 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 3/5 | $5,645 | $5,891 | 51% | 66% | +$261 | -$16,764 | 124.2% | $-20,287 (vs do-nothing $-16,899) |
| $120 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.50 | 3/5 | $5,250 | $5,495 | 51% | 68% | +$850 | -$15,984 | 118.4% | $-19,507 (vs do-nothing $-16,119) |
| $120 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/5 | $6,055 | $6,300 | 49% | 65% | +$255 | -$16,914 | 125.3% | $-20,437 (vs do-nothing $-17,049) |
| $121 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 2/5 | $7,050 | $7,418 | 49% | 66% | +$830 | -$11,616 | 86.0% | $-15,094 (vs do-nothing $-11,706) |
| $120 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 2/5 | $7,800 | $8,168 | 45% | 64% | +$810 | -$11,716 | 86.8% | $-15,194 (vs do-nothing $-11,806) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.