FORTRESS FIGHT: SPCX @ $118.62

BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $183.45 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPCX @ $118.62 UNDERWATER $67.38 (36.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

SPCX reports 2026-08-04 (Tue), TODAY. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $183.45 (banked floor $180.09) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $150 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $60.433/sh)

SP: $195 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $54.780/sh)

HP: $135 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $21.391/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$43,500	(ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500
Normal income ref	$12,618/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,541/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-27,438	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,309/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,618/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $13,500

ML VELOCITY
3.4 mo to earn back $43,500

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $183.45 (probe: $185C 17d) brings only $2,188/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,593

Hole (after banked)

$25,845

was $27,438 · 6% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$183.45 → $180.09

? 5 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $170 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 99+%, breach 0%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($6,309/mo); it brings $7,250/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $138/3d for $23,250/mo, but breach risk rises to 9% (+9pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $5,998 (44% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $186, recoverable in 0.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-27,445 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (3d) · sell 5 × $170, 99+% survival, $7,250/mo (E[net] $5,796/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 3d	5 × $170	99+%	$7,250	$5,796
NEXT FRIDAY	14 Aug 2026 · 10d	5 × $150	84%	$6,750	$1,514

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $725 with probability 97%; on the 3% touch you roll, paying $5,682 to close and taking $1,862 back from the best priced door (net cash $3,819) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 3d · E[net] $5,796/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $170 (50% normal), 99+% survival, breach 0%, $7,250/mo.
This is already the safest rung on the ladder, take it.

SPCX spot $118.62 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

33% normal

4 × $177.50

7 Aug

49.6%

99+%hist 99%

0%hist 1%

-10pp

$464

$4,640

-$2,610

$1,914

Sell 4 × $177.50 49.6% OTM over spot $118.62 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $1.21 mid)

= $464 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,640/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $177.50)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $178.71)

99+%

EV / mo

+$4,639

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-10pp

50% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$630/mo

median; plan ~$428/mo after 68% keep · $5,569 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,282

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$202 @ 80% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $16.76/sh now → $11.86 mid-life (likely $11.16–$21.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 63 simulated challenges: the $178 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $189 (overshoots $11.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$178	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.59/sh	+$1,438 cycle +$1,902 [+$1,519…+$2,549] · 94% credit	70% surv 54%	-$4,032 NOT cap gain +$23,405
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$187	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.01/sh	+$5 cycle +$469 [-$657…+$809] · 65% credit	75% surv 64%	-$2,257 NOT cap gain +$25,180
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$196	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.44/sh	+$174 cycle +$638 [-$855…+$1,053] · 62% credit	77% surv 70%	+$270 SAFE cap gain +$27,708
Max even-money escape in the band	~$197	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.16/sh	+$65 cycle +$529 [-$1,018…+$924] · 59% credit	78% surv 70%	+$423 SAFE cap gain +$27,861
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$202	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.11/sh	-$442 cycle +$22 [-$1,789…+$320] · 37% credit	80% surv 73%	+$1,226 SAFE cap gain +$28,663
budget: banked $464 debit $442 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$22 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $5,868/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,640/mo
vs 50% target ($6,309/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($12,618/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,204/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $177.50 is $6 below CC-SS $183.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,914
… as % of IC ($13,500)	14.2%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	4.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-21,968

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $178.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $178)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $175.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $176-178.71	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $178.71	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$177.50 (4.1σ)	$464	$-5,470	+$21,967	-$288
+2.5%	$181.94 (4.4σ)	$-1,311	$-5,639	+$21,799	-$2,063
+5%	$186.38 (4.7σ)	$-3,086	$-5,945	+$21,493	-$3,288

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,468

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $177.50): -$1,914

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $185): +$188

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,696 (+$21,741 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,030 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,666, the opportunity cost of earning $4,640/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $170

7 Aug

43.3%

99+%hist 99%

0%hist 1%

-14pp

$725

$7,250

—

$5,998

Sell 5 × $170 43.3% OTM over spot $118.62 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $1.46 mid)

= $725 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $170)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $171.47)

99+%

EV / mo

+$7,246

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-14pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$148/mo

median; plan ~$101/mo after 68% keep · $968 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,957

Free roll-up

+$9/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$196 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $16.06/sh now → $11.36 mid-life (likely $10.26–$20.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 96 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $182 (overshoots $11.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$170	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.72/sh	+$1,862 cycle +$2,587 [+$1,781…+$3,214] · 93% credit	70% surv 54%	-$6,250 NOT cap gain +$21,188
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$182	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.42/sh	+$1,211 cycle +$1,936 [+$50…+$2,478] · 75% credit	75% surv 66%	-$2,419 NOT cap gain +$25,018
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$179	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$71 cycle +$796 [-$893…+$1,065] · 53% credit	75% surv 64%	-$4,645 NOT cap gain +$22,793
Max even-money escape in the band	~$190	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$32 cycle +$757 [-$1,737…+$1,099] · 50% credit	78% surv 71%	-$702 NOT cap gain +$26,735
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$196	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.37/sh	-$683 cycle +$42 [-$2,796…+$259] · 38% credit	80% surv 75%	+$755 SAFE cap gain +$28,193
budget: banked $725 debit $683 (94% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,816/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,250/mo
vs 50% target ($6,309/mo)	+15%
vs normal income ($12,618/mo)	57% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,250/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $170 is $13 below CC-SS $183.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,998
… as % of IC ($13,500)	44.4%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	13.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-27,445

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $171.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $168.30	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $168-171.47	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $171.47	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$170.00 (3.6σ)	$725	$-8,112	+$19,325	-$215
+2.5%	$174.25 (3.9σ)	$-1,400	$-8,699	+$18,739	-$2,340
+5%	$178.50 (4.2σ)	$-3,525	$-9,285	+$18,152	-$4,465
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (4.7σ)	$-7,275	$-10,320	+$17,117	-$7,715

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,468

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $170): -$5,998

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,968 (+$17,470 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,030 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,938, the opportunity cost of earning $7,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

3 × $138

7 Aug

16.3%

91%hist 99%

19%hist 6%

+5pp

$1,395

$13,950

+$6,700

$12,239

Sell 3 × $138 16.3% OTM over spot $118.62 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $4.70 mid)

= $1,395 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,950/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $138)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $142.70)

94%

EV / mo

+$12,745

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,472/mo

median; plan ~$3,041/mo after 68% keep · $17,963 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,372

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$187 @ 89% POP

87% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.03/sh now → $9.22 mid-life (likely $10.21–$18.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 771 simulated challenges: the $138 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $147 (overshoots $9.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$138	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$4.00/sh	+$1,199 cycle +$2,594 [+$711…+$1,536] · 97% credit	70% surv 54%	-$17,451 NOT cap gain +$9,987
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$150	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.69/sh	+$806 cycle +$2,201 [-$178…+$1,035] · 68% credit	76% surv 67%	-$13,362 NOT cap gain +$14,076
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$148	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$20 cycle +$1,415 [-$853…+$178] · 32% credit	76% surv 67%	-$14,872 NOT cap gain +$12,566
Max even-money escape in the band	~$159	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$46 cycle +$1,441 [-$1,221…+$165] · 30% credit	80% surv 74%	-$10,863 NOT cap gain +$16,574
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$187	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$4.41/sh	-$1,323 cycle +$72 [-$3,188…-$1,423]	89% surv 87%	-$2,654 NOT cap gain +$24,784
budget: banked $1,395 debit $1,323 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,970/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$13,950/mo
vs 50% target ($6,309/mo)	+121%
vs normal income ($12,618/mo)	111% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$15,078/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $138 is $45 below CC-SS $183.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,239
… as % of IC ($13,500)	90.7%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	28.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-16,478

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.16/sh (~25% of the $4.65 collected) or spot ≥ $142.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $138)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $136.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $137-142.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $142.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$138.00 (1.4σ)	$1,395	$-18,650	+$8,787	+$831
+2.5%	$141.45 (1.6σ)	$360	$-18,436	+$9,001	-$204
+5%	$144.90 (1.8σ)	$-675	$-18,222	+$9,215	-$1,239
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (4.7σ)	$-13,005	$-15,874	+$11,563	-$13,269

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,468

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $138): -$12,239

+ Conservative CC premium (2 × $185): +$376

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,833 (+$11,605 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,030 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,803, the opportunity cost of earning $13,950/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $138

7 Aug

16.3%

91%hist 99%

19%hist 6%

+12pp

$2,325

$23,250

+$16,000

$20,398

Sell 5 × $138 16.3% OTM over spot $118.62 7 Aug 2026 (3d, $4.70 mid)

= $2,325 credit for the 3d cycle → $23,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $138)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $142.70)

94%

EV / mo

+$21,241

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,694/mo

median; plan ~$3,872/mo after 68% keep · $17,015 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,287

Free roll-up

+$10/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$187 @ 89% POP

87% survival

Buyback gross: $13.03/sh now → $9.22 mid-life (likely $10.80–$18.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 789 simulated challenges: the $138 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $148 (overshoots $9.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$138	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$4.00/sh	+$1,999 cycle +$4,324 [+$1,207…+$2,496] · 96% credit	70% surv 54%	-$16,097 NOT cap gain +$11,340
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$150	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.69/sh	+$1,344 cycle +$3,669 [-$321…+$1,580] · 67% credit	76% surv 67%	-$12,270 NOT cap gain +$15,167
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$148	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$33 cycle +$2,358 [-$1,426…+$175] · 29% credit	76% surv 67%	-$14,304 NOT cap gain +$13,133
Max even-money escape in the band	~$159	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$77 cycle +$2,402 [-$2,075…+$97] · 27% credit	80% surv 74%	-$10,279 NOT cap gain +$17,159
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$187	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$4.41/sh	-$2,204 cycle +$121 [-$5,461…-$2,659]	89% surv 87%	-$2,605 NOT cap gain +$24,832
budget: banked $2,325 debit $2,204 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$121 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,283/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$23,250/mo
vs 50% target ($6,309/mo)	+269%
vs normal income ($12,618/mo)	184% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$23,250/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $138 is $45 below CC-SS $183.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,398
… as % of IC ($13,500)	151.1%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	46.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-27,462

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $136.62	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $137-142.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $142.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$138.00 (1.4σ)	$2,325	$-18,096	+$9,341	+$1,385
+2.5%	$141.45 (1.6σ)	$600	$-18,572	+$8,865	-$340
+5%	$144.90 (1.8σ)	$-1,125	$-19,048	+$8,389	-$2,065
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (4.7σ)	$-21,675	$-24,720	+$2,717	-$22,115

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,468

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $138): -$20,398

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,368 (+$3,070 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,030 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,338, the opportunity cost of earning $23,250/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPCX are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 · 10d · E[net] $1,514/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $150 (50% normal), 84% survival, breach 16%, $6,750/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $167.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 91% (breach 16% → 9%) for $2,550/mo less (38% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

SPCX spot $118.62 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

33% normal

5 × $167.50

14 Aug

10d

41.2%

91%hist 99%

20%hist 6%

+0pp

$1,400

$4,200

-$2,550

$6,573

Sell 5 × $167.50 41.2% OTM over spot $118.62 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.85 mid)

= $1,400 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $167.50)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $170.35)

92%

EV / mo

+$2,228

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

58% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,295/mo

median; plan ~$1,560/mo after 68% keep · $8,374 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,371

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$184 @ 77% POP

69% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $19.13/sh now → $13.54 mid-life (likely $11.29–$18.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $175 (overshoots $7.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$168	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.52/sh	+$760 cycle +$2,160 [+$587…+$2,214] · 94% credit	70% surv 54%	-$7,582 NOT cap gain +$19,855
Max even-money escape in the band	~$175	28 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.32/sh	+$160 cycle +$1,560 [-$405…+$1,817] · 65% credit	73% surv 62%	-$5,509 NOT cap gain +$21,928
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$171	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.04/sh	+$22 cycle +$1,422 [-$329…+$1,422] · 63% credit	71% surv 58%	-$7,095 NOT cap gain +$20,342
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$184	28 Aug 2026	19d left	-$2.61/sh	-$1,303 cycle +$97 [-$2,207…+$110] · 27% credit	77% surv 69%	-$3,715 NOT cap gain +$23,722
budget: banked $1,400 debit $1,303 (93% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,633/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,200/mo
vs 50% target ($6,309/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($12,618/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,200/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $167.50 is $16 below CC-SS $183.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,573
… as % of IC ($13,500)	48.7%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	15.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-27,465

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.70/sh (~25% of the $2.80 collected) or spot ≥ $170.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $165.82	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $166-170.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $170.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$167.50 (1.9σ)	$1,400	$-8,342	+$19,095	+$460
+2.5%	$171.69 (2.0σ)	$-694	$-8,920	+$18,517	-$1,634
+5%	$175.88 (2.2σ)	$-2,788	$-9,498	+$17,940	-$3,728
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (2.6σ)	$-7,850	$-10,895	+$16,542	-$8,290

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,468

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $167.50): -$6,573

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,543 (+$16,895 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,030 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,513, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $150

14 Aug

10d

26.5%

84%hist 95%

35%hist 22%

+2pp

$2,250

$6,750

—

$14,473

Sell 5 × $150 26.5% OTM over spot $118.62 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $4.60 mid)

= $2,250 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,750/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $150)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $154.60)

86%

EV / mo

+$2,910

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

59% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,985/mo

median; plan ~$2,030/mo after 68% keep · $11,598 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

24%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,814

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$176 @ 82% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $17.13/sh now → $12.13 mid-life (likely $11.62–$18.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 718 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $157 (overshoots $6.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$150	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$2.04/sh	+$1,021 cycle +$3,271 [+$439…+$1,838] · 93% credit	70% surv 54%	-$12,806 NOT cap gain +$14,632
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$155	28 Aug 2026	19d left	+$1.60/sh	+$802 cycle +$3,052 [-$114…+$1,660] · 71% credit	73% surv 60%	-$11,076 NOT cap gain +$16,361
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$154	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.20/sh	+$98 cycle +$2,348 [-$631…+$769] · 48% credit	72% surv 60%	-$12,142 NOT cap gain +$15,295
Max even-money escape in the band	~$159	28 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.12/sh	+$58 cycle +$2,308 [-$1,044…+$828] · 42% credit	74% surv 64%	-$10,373 NOT cap gain +$17,064
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$176	28 Aug 2026	19d left	-$4.50/sh	-$2,248 cycle +$2 [-$3,935…-$1,895] · 6% credit	82% surv 77%	-$6,525 NOT cap gain +$20,912
budget: banked $2,250 debit $2,248 (100% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,024/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,750/mo
vs 50% target ($6,309/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($12,618/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,750/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $150 is $33 below CC-SS $183.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,473
… as % of IC ($13,500)	107.2%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	33.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-27,488

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.12/sh (~25% of the $4.50 collected) or spot ≥ $154.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $148.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $148-154.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $154.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$150.00 (1.2σ)	$2,250	$-13,827	+$13,610	+$1,310
+2.5%	$153.75 (1.3σ)	$375	$-14,345	+$13,093	-$565
+5%	$157.50 (1.5σ)	$-1,500	$-14,862	+$12,575	-$2,440
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (2.6σ)	$-15,750	$-18,795	+$8,642	-$16,190

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,468

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$14,473

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,443 (+$8,995 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,030 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,413, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $130

14 Aug

10d

9.6%

69%hist 78%

69%hist 55%

+6pp

$4,350

$13,050

+$6,300

$22,373

Sell 5 × $130 9.6% OTM over spot $118.62 14 Aug 2026 (10d, $8.80 mid)

= $4,350 credit for the 10d cycle → $13,050/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $130)

69%

Breach risk

31%

POP (stays ≤ $138.80)

77%

EV / mo

+$4,006

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,833/mo

median; plan ~$3,287/mo after 68% keep · $16,199 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$905

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$179 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $14.84/sh now → $10.51 mid-life (likely $12.95–$18.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,678 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $136 (overshoots $6.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$130	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$2.44/sh	+$1,222 cycle +$5,572 [+$331…+$1,069] · 93% credit	70% surv 55%	-$17,745 NOT cap gain +$9,693
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$134	28 Aug 2026	19d left	+$2.35/sh	+$1,175 cycle +$5,525 [-$100…+$852] · 68% credit	72% surv 60%	-$16,206 NOT cap gain +$11,231
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$135	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.20/sh	+$102 cycle +$4,452 [-$955…-$191] · 20% credit	73% surv 61%	-$16,916 NOT cap gain +$10,521
Max even-money escape in the band	~$140	28 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.17/sh	+$85 cycle +$4,435 [-$1,414…-$353] · 18% credit	75% surv 66%	-$15,124 NOT cap gain +$12,313
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$179	28 Aug 2026	19d left	-$7.08/sh	-$3,542 cycle +$808 [-$6,223…-$4,438]	90% surv 89%	-$4,813 NOT cap gain +$22,624
budget: banked $4,350 debit $3,542 (81% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$808 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,705/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$13,050/mo
vs 50% target ($6,309/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($12,618/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$13,050/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $130 is $53 below CC-SS $183.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,373
… as % of IC ($13,500)	165.7%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	51.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-27,488

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.17/sh (~25% of the $8.70 collected) or spot ≥ $138.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $130)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $128.70	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $129-138.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $138.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.72 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$130.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,350	$-18,967	+$8,470	+$3,410
+2.5%	$133.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,725	$-19,416	+$8,022	+$1,785
+5%	$136.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,100	$-19,864	+$7,573	+$160
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (2.6σ)	$-23,650	$-26,695	+$742	-$24,090

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $183.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,438

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,468

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $130): -$22,373

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,343 (+$1,095 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,030 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,313, the opportunity cost of earning $13,050/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (116 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 116 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.724 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,468 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,030

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$170	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.45	5/5	$7,250	$7,250	100%	100%	+$7,246	-$5,998	44.4%	$-9,968 (vs do-nothing $-6,938)
$165	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.67	4/5	$6,680	$7,244	100%	100%	+$6,670	-$6,710	49.7%	$-10,492 (vs do-nothing $-7,462)
$157.50	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.11	3/5	$6,330	$7,458	99%	99%	+$6,295	-$7,151	53.0%	$-10,745 (vs do-nothing $-7,715)
$172.50	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.32	5/5	$6,600	$6,600	95%	95%	+$4,374	-$4,813	35.6%	$-8,783 (vs do-nothing $-5,753)
$167.50	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.52	5/5	$7,600	$7,600	94%	94%	+$4,878	-$7,213	53.4%	$-11,183 (vs do-nothing $-8,153)
$162.50	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.78	4/5	$7,120	$7,684	93%	93%	+$4,468	-$7,666	56.8%	$-11,448 (vs do-nothing $-8,418)
$160	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.97	4/5	$7,880	$8,444	92%	93%	+$4,857	-$8,590	63.6%	$-12,372 (vs do-nothing $-9,342)
$138	3d	7 Aug 2026	$4.65	2/5	$9,300	$10,992	91%	94%	+$8,496	-$8,159	60.4%	$-11,565 (vs do-nothing $-8,535)
$155	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.32	3/5	$6,960	$8,088	90%	91%	+$4,069	-$7,838	58.1%	$-11,432 (vs do-nothing $-8,402)
$152.50	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.54	3/5	$7,620	$8,748	89%	91%	+$4,324	-$8,522	63.1%	$-12,116 (vs do-nothing $-9,086)
$150	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.81	3/5	$8,430	$9,558	88%	90%	+$4,642	-$9,191	68.1%	$-12,785 (vs do-nothing $-9,755)
$149	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.91	3/5	$8,730	$9,858	87%	89%	+$4,720	-$9,461	70.1%	$-13,055 (vs do-nothing $-10,025)
$148	3d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	3/5	$9,000	$10,128	87%	89%	+$4,752	-$9,734	72.1%	$-13,328 (vs do-nothing $-10,298)

Show 103 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 103.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$147	3d	7 Aug 2026	$3.15	3/5	$9,450	$10,578	86%	88%	+$4,948	-$9,989	74.0%	$-13,583 (vs do-nothing $-10,553)
$146	3d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	2/5	$6,600	$8,292	86%	88%	+$3,417	-$6,829	50.6%	$-10,235 (vs do-nothing $-7,205)
$145	3d	7 Aug 2026	$3.45	2/5	$6,900	$8,592	85%	87%	+$3,522	-$6,999	51.8%	$-10,405 (vs do-nothing $-7,375)
$144	3d	7 Aug 2026	$3.60	2/5	$7,200	$8,892	84%	87%	+$3,613	-$7,169	53.1%	$-10,575 (vs do-nothing $-7,545)
$150	10d	14 Aug 2026	$4.50	5/5	$6,750	$6,750	84%	86%	+$2,910	-$14,473	107.2%	$-18,443 (vs do-nothing $-15,413)
$143	3d	7 Aug 2026	$3.75	2/5	$7,500	$9,192	84%	86%	+$3,690	-$7,339	54.4%	$-10,745 (vs do-nothing $-7,715)
$149	10d	14 Aug 2026	$4.65	5/5	$6,975	$6,975	83%	86%	+$2,966	-$14,898	110.4%	$-18,868 (vs do-nothing $-15,838)
$148	10d	14 Aug 2026	$4.80	5/5	$7,200	$7,200	83%	86%	+$3,028	-$15,323	113.5%	$-19,293 (vs do-nothing $-16,263)
$142	3d	7 Aug 2026	$3.90	2/5	$7,800	$9,492	83%	86%	+$3,751	-$7,509	55.6%	$-10,915 (vs do-nothing $-7,885)
$147	10d	14 Aug 2026	$4.95	5/5	$7,425	$7,425	82%	85%	+$3,068	-$15,748	116.6%	$-19,718 (vs do-nothing $-16,688)
$141	3d	7 Aug 2026	$4.05	2/5	$8,100	$9,792	82%	85%	+$3,795	-$7,679	56.9%	$-11,085 (vs do-nothing $-8,055)
$146	10d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	5/5	$7,650	$7,650	82%	85%	+$3,112	-$16,173	119.8%	$-20,143 (vs do-nothing $-17,113)
$140	3d	7 Aug 2026	$4.25	2/5	$8,500	$10,192	81%	85%	+$3,922	-$7,839	58.1%	$-11,245 (vs do-nothing $-8,215)
$145	10d	14 Aug 2026	$5.25	5/5	$7,875	$7,875	81%	84%	+$3,141	-$16,598	122.9%	$-20,568 (vs do-nothing $-17,538)
$144	10d	14 Aug 2026	$5.45	4/5	$6,540	$7,104	80%	84%	+$2,587	-$13,598	100.7%	$-17,380 (vs do-nothing $-14,350)
$139	3d	7 Aug 2026	$4.45	2/5	$8,900	$10,592	80%	84%	+$4,030	-$7,999	59.3%	$-11,405 (vs do-nothing $-8,375)
$143	10d	14 Aug 2026	$5.60	4/5	$6,720	$7,284	80%	84%	+$2,589	-$13,938	103.2%	$-17,720 (vs do-nothing $-14,690)
$142	10d	14 Aug 2026	$5.80	4/5	$6,960	$7,524	79%	83%	+$2,652	-$14,258	105.6%	$-18,040 (vs do-nothing $-15,010)
$137	3d	7 Aug 2026	$4.85	2/5	$9,700	$11,392	78%	83%	+$4,189	-$8,319	61.6%	$-11,725 (vs do-nothing $-8,695)
$141	10d	14 Aug 2026	$6.00	4/5	$7,200	$7,764	78%	83%	+$2,697	-$14,578	108.0%	$-18,360 (vs do-nothing $-15,330)
$140	10d	14 Aug 2026	$6.20	4/5	$7,440	$8,004	78%	82%	+$2,741	-$14,898	110.4%	$-18,680 (vs do-nothing $-15,650)
$136	3d	7 Aug 2026	$5.10	2/5	$10,200	$11,892	77%	82%	+$4,337	-$8,469	62.7%	$-11,875 (vs do-nothing $-8,845)
$139	10d	14 Aug 2026	$6.40	4/5	$7,680	$8,244	77%	82%	+$2,769	-$15,218	112.7%	$-19,000 (vs do-nothing $-15,970)
$135	3d	7 Aug 2026	$5.30	2/5	$10,600	$12,292	76%	82%	+$4,364	-$8,629	63.9%	$-12,035 (vs do-nothing $-9,005)
$138	10d	14 Aug 2026	$6.60	4/5	$7,920	$8,484	76%	81%	+$2,819	-$15,538	115.1%	$-19,320 (vs do-nothing $-16,290)
$140	17d	21 Aug 2026	$7.55	5/5	$6,662	$6,662	76%	81%	+$2,250	-$17,948	132.9%	$-21,918 (vs do-nothing $-18,888)
$134	3d	7 Aug 2026	$5.55	2/5	$11,100	$12,792	75%	81%	+$4,467	-$8,779	65.0%	$-12,185 (vs do-nothing $-9,155)
$139	17d	21 Aug 2026	$7.75	5/5	$6,838	$6,838	75%	81%	+$2,251	-$18,348	135.9%	$-22,318 (vs do-nothing $-19,288)
$137	10d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	4/5	$8,220	$8,784	75%	81%	+$2,858	-$15,838	117.3%	$-19,620 (vs do-nothing $-16,590)
$138	17d	21 Aug 2026	$8.00	5/5	$7,059	$7,059	75%	80%	+$2,289	-$18,723	138.7%	$-22,693 (vs do-nothing $-19,663)
$136	10d	14 Aug 2026	$7.10	3/5	$6,390	$7,518	74%	80%	+$2,185	-$12,104	89.7%	$-15,698 (vs do-nothing $-12,668)
$133	3d	7 Aug 2026	$5.80	2/5	$11,600	$13,292	74%	80%	+$4,548	-$8,929	66.1%	$-12,335 (vs do-nothing $-9,305)
$137	17d	21 Aug 2026	$8.25	5/5	$7,279	$7,279	74%	80%	+$2,319	-$19,098	141.5%	$-23,068 (vs do-nothing $-20,038)
$135	10d	14 Aug 2026	$7.35	3/5	$6,615	$7,743	73%	80%	+$2,270	-$12,329	91.3%	$-15,923 (vs do-nothing $-12,893)
$132	3d	7 Aug 2026	$6.10	2/5	$12,200	$13,892	73%	80%	+$4,707	-$9,069	67.2%	$-12,475 (vs do-nothing $-9,445)
$136	17d	21 Aug 2026	$8.45	5/5	$7,456	$7,456	73%	79%	+$2,296	-$19,498	144.4%	$-23,468 (vs do-nothing $-20,438)
$134	10d	14 Aug 2026	$7.60	3/5	$6,840	$7,968	72%	79%	+$2,242	-$12,554	93.0%	$-16,148 (vs do-nothing $-13,118)
$135	17d	21 Aug 2026	$8.75	5/5	$7,721	$7,721	72%	79%	+$2,354	-$19,848	147.0%	$-23,818 (vs do-nothing $-20,788)
$131	3d	7 Aug 2026	$6.35	1/5	$6,350	$8,606	72%	79%	+$2,370	-$4,610	34.1%	$-7,827 (vs do-nothing $-4,798)
$134	17d	21 Aug 2026	$9.00	4/5	$6,353	$6,917	71%	78%	+$1,887	-$16,178	119.8%	$-19,960 (vs do-nothing $-16,930)
$130	3d	7 Aug 2026	$6.65	1/5	$6,650	$8,906	71%	78%	+$2,424	-$4,680	34.7%	$-7,897 (vs do-nothing $-4,868)
$132	10d	14 Aug 2026	$8.15	3/5	$7,335	$8,463	71%	78%	+$2,309	-$12,989	96.2%	$-16,583 (vs do-nothing $-13,553)
$133	17d	21 Aug 2026	$9.30	4/5	$6,565	$7,129	70%	78%	+$1,919	-$16,458	121.9%	$-20,240 (vs do-nothing $-17,210)
$131	10d	14 Aug 2026	$8.40	3/5	$7,560	$8,688	70%	78%	+$2,354	-$13,214	97.9%	$-16,808 (vs do-nothing $-13,778)
$132	17d	21 Aug 2026	$9.55	4/5	$6,741	$7,305	70%	77%	+$1,909	-$16,758	124.1%	$-20,540 (vs do-nothing $-17,510)
$129	3d	7 Aug 2026	$6.95	1/5	$6,950	$9,206	69%	78%	+$2,466	-$4,750	35.2%	$-7,967 (vs do-nothing $-4,938)
$132	24d	28 Aug 2026	$10.65	5/5	$6,656	$6,656	69%	77%	+$1,814	-$20,398	151.1%	$-24,368 (vs do-nothing $-21,338)
$131	17d	21 Aug 2026	$9.85	4/5	$6,953	$7,517	69%	77%	+$1,927	-$17,038	126.2%	$-20,820 (vs do-nothing $-17,790)
$130	10d	14 Aug 2026	$8.70	3/5	$7,830	$8,958	69%	77%	+$2,404	-$13,424	99.4%	$-17,018 (vs do-nothing $-13,988)
$131	24d	28 Aug 2026	$10.95	5/5	$6,844	$6,844	68%	77%	+$1,824	-$20,748	153.7%	$-24,718 (vs do-nothing $-21,688)
$128	3d	7 Aug 2026	$7.30	1/5	$7,300	$9,556	68%	77%	+$2,522	-$4,815	35.7%	$-8,032 (vs do-nothing $-5,003)
$130	17d	21 Aug 2026	$10.15	4/5	$7,165	$7,729	68%	76%	+$1,937	-$17,318	128.3%	$-21,100 (vs do-nothing $-18,070)
$129	10d	14 Aug 2026	$9.00	3/5	$8,100	$9,228	68%	77%	+$2,443	-$13,634	101.0%	$-17,228 (vs do-nothing $-14,198)
$130	24d	28 Aug 2026	$11.25	5/5	$7,031	$7,031	67%	76%	+$1,825	-$21,098	156.3%	$-25,068 (vs do-nothing $-22,038)
$129	17d	21 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,412	$7,976	67%	76%	+$1,974	-$17,578	130.2%	$-21,360 (vs do-nothing $-18,330)
$127	3d	7 Aug 2026	$7.60	1/5	$7,600	$9,856	67%	76%	+$2,509	-$4,885	36.2%	$-8,102 (vs do-nothing $-5,073)
$128	10d	14 Aug 2026	$9.35	3/5	$8,415	$9,543	67%	76%	+$2,499	-$13,829	102.4%	$-17,423 (vs do-nothing $-14,393)
$129	24d	28 Aug 2026	$11.60	5/5	$7,250	$7,250	66%	76%	+$1,853	-$21,423	158.7%	$-25,393 (vs do-nothing $-22,363)
$128	17d	21 Aug 2026	$10.80	4/5	$7,624	$8,188	66%	75%	+$1,969	-$17,858	132.3%	$-21,640 (vs do-nothing $-18,610)
$128	24d	28 Aug 2026	$11.90	5/5	$7,438	$7,438	66%	75%	+$1,848	-$21,773	161.3%	$-25,743 (vs do-nothing $-22,713)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-04 21:40