FORTRESS FIGHT: SPCX @ $110.14

BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $184.01 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPCX @ $110.14 UNDERWATER $75.86 (40.8% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $184.01 (banked floor $180.70) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $150 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $60.433/sh)

SP: $195 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $54.780/sh)

HP: $135 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $21.391/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$43,500	(ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500
Normal income ref	$9,148/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-30,750	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,574/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$9,148/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $13,500

ML VELOCITY
4.8 mo to earn back $43,500

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $184.01 (probe: $185C 16d) brings only $422/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,593

Hole (after banked)

$29,157

was $30,750 · 5% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$184.01 → $180.70

? 5 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $136 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 95%, breach 5%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,574/mo); it brings $4,650/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $128/2d for $9,600/mo, but breach risk rises to 10% (+5pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $190/2d (99+% survival, $450/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $23,696 (176% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $186, recoverable in 2.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-30,755 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (2d) · sell 5 × $136, 95% survival, $4,650/mo (E[net] $3,827/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 2d	5 × $136	95%	$4,650	$3,827
NEXT FRIDAY	14 Aug 2026 · 9d	5 × $128	82%	$4,783	$828

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $310 with probability 97%; on the 3% touch you roll, paying $2,931 to close and taking $1,611 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,320) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 2d · E[net] $3,827/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $136 (50% normal), 95% survival, breach 5%, $4,650/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $139 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 99+% (breach 5% → 0%) for $975/mo less (21% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

SPCX spot $110.14 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

33% normal

5 × $139

7 Aug

26.2%

99+%hist 99%

0%hist 1%

-1pp

$245

$3,675

-$975

$22,261

Sell 5 × $139 26.2% OTM over spot $110.14 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.50 mid)

= $245 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,675/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $139)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $139.50)

99+%

EV / mo

+$3,672

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

36% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$75/mo

median; plan ~$51/mo after 68% keep · $555 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.0-5.4], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,750

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$159 @ 82% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.47/sh now → $5.99 mid-life (likely $5.87–$11.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 61 simulated challenges: the $139 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $145 (overshoots $5.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$139	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.19/sh	+$1,596 cycle +$1,841 [+$1,039…+$2,013] · 93% credit	69% surv 53%	-$19,256 NOT cap gain +$11,494
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$150	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.16/sh	+$1,078 cycle +$1,323 [-$307…+$1,399] · 67% credit	75% surv 67%	-$16,142 NOT cap gain +$14,608
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$146	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.38/sh	+$191 cycle +$436 [-$832…+$448] · 46% credit	75% surv 65%	-$18,367 NOT cap gain +$12,383
Max even-money escape in the band	~$157	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.11/sh	+$57 cycle +$302 [-$1,627…+$306] · 34% credit	79% surv 74%	-$14,821 NOT cap gain +$15,929
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$159	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.38/sh	-$190 cycle +$55 [-$1,800…+$68] · 30% credit	82% surv 77%	-$14,399 NOT cap gain +$16,351
budget: banked $245 debit $190 (77% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,826/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,675/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	-20%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	40% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,675/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $139 is $45 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,261
… as % of IC ($13,500)	164.9%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	51.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,755

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $139.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $139)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $137.61	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $138-139.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $139.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$139.00 (3.4σ)	$245	$-20,852	+$9,898	+$20
+2.5%	$142.47 (3.8σ)	$-1,492	$-21,427	+$9,323	-$1,717
+5%	$145.95 (4.2σ)	$-3,230	$-22,002	+$8,748	-$3,455
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (8.8σ)	$-23,255	$-28,631	+$2,119	-$22,980

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $139): -$22,261

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,301 (+$2,449 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,486, the opportunity cost of earning $3,675/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $136

7 Aug

23.5%

95%hist 99%

10%hist 1%

+11pp

$310

$4,650

—

$23,696

Sell 5 × $136 23.5% OTM over spot $110.14 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.63 mid)

= $310 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,650/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $136)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $136.63)

96%

EV / mo

+$3,528

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+11pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,937/mo

median; plan ~$1,997/mo after 68% keep · $10,715 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,621

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$156 @ 82% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $8.29/sh now → $5.86 mid-life (likely $5.24–$10.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 101 simulated challenges: the $136 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $141 (overshoots $4.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$136	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.22/sh	+$1,611 cycle +$1,921 [+$1,286…+$2,073] · 96% credit	69% surv 53%	-$20,180 NOT cap gain +$10,570
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$150	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.27/sh	+$636 cycle +$946 [-$466…+$1,062] · 64% credit	77% surv 70%	-$16,519 NOT cap gain +$14,231
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$143	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.41/sh	+$207 cycle +$517 [-$539…+$557] · 56% credit	75% surv 66%	-$19,290 NOT cap gain +$11,460
Max even-money escape in the band	~$154	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$71 cycle +$381 [-$1,180…+$472] · 45% credit	79% surv 74%	-$15,746 NOT cap gain +$15,004
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$156	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.34/sh	-$170 cycle +$140 [-$1,365…+$235] · 33% credit	82% surv 77%	-$15,318 NOT cap gain +$15,432
budget: banked $310 debit $170 (55% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$140 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,765/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,650/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,650/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $136 is $48 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,696
… as % of IC ($13,500)	175.5%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	54.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,755

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $136.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $136)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $134.64	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $135-136.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $136.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$136.00 (3.0σ)	$310	$-21,791	+$8,959	+$85
+2.5%	$139.40 (3.4σ)	$-1,390	$-22,353	+$8,397	-$1,615
+5%	$142.80 (3.8σ)	$-3,090	$-22,916	+$7,834	-$3,315
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (8.8σ)	$-24,690	$-30,066	+$684	-$24,415

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $136): -$23,696

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,736 (+$1,014 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,921, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $129

7 Aug

17.1%

91%hist 99%

19%hist 6%

+15pp

$580

$8,700

+$4,050

$26,926

Sell 5 × $129 17.1% OTM over spot $110.14 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $1.18 mid)

= $580 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,700/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $129)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $130.18)

92%

EV / mo

+$5,913

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+15pp

59% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$4,586/mo

median; plan ~$3,118/mo after 68% keep · $18,205 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,200

Free roll-up

+$8/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$153 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $7.86/sh now → $5.56 mid-life (likely $5.95–$12.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 283 simulated challenges: the $129 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $135 (overshoots $6.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$129	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.27/sh	+$1,637 cycle +$2,217 [+$962…+$1,880] · 91% credit	70% surv 53%	-$22,225 NOT cap gain +$8,525
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$140	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.18/sh	+$1,092 cycle +$1,672 [-$645…+$1,078] · 64% credit	75% surv 68%	-$19,139 NOT cap gain +$11,611
Max even-money escape in the band	~$147	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$95 cycle +$675 [-$1,984…+$37] · 28% credit	79% surv 74%	-$17,794 NOT cap gain +$12,956
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$137	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$30 cycle +$610 [-$1,398…+$5] · 26% credit	76% surv 68%	-$21,203 NOT cap gain +$9,547
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$153	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.09/sh	-$544 cycle +$36 [-$2,866…-$625] · 6% credit	83% surv 79%	-$16,426 NOT cap gain +$14,324
budget: banked $580 debit $544 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$36 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,049/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,700/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	+90%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	95% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,700/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $129 is $55 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,926
… as % of IC ($13,500)	199.4%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	61.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,760

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $130.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $129)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $127.71	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $128-130.18	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $130.18	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$129.00 (2.2σ)	$580	$-23,862	+$6,888	+$355
+2.5%	$132.22 (2.6σ)	$-1,032	$-24,396	+$6,354	-$1,257
+5%	$135.45 (3.0σ)	$-2,645	$-24,930	+$5,820	-$2,870
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (8.8σ)	$-27,920	$-33,296	-$2,546	-$27,645

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $129): -$26,926

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,966 ($-2,216 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,151, the opportunity cost of earning $8,700/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $128

7 Aug

16.2%

90%hist 95%

21%hist 18%

+16pp

$640

$9,600

+$4,950

$27,366

Sell 5 × $128 16.2% OTM over spot $110.14 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $1.30 mid)

= $640 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $128)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $129.30)

91%

EV / mo

+$6,396

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+16pp

62% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$5,330/mo

median; plan ~$3,624/mo after 68% keep · $18,191 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,118

Free roll-up

+$8/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$153 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $7.80/sh now → $5.52 mid-life (likely $5.93–$11.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 304 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $134 (overshoots $5.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$128	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$3.28/sh	+$1,640 cycle +$2,280 [+$1,042…+$1,843] · 93% credit	70% surv 53%	-$22,497 NOT cap gain +$8,253
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$139	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.18/sh	+$1,091 cycle +$1,731 [-$495…+$1,042] · 67% credit	75% surv 68%	-$19,413 NOT cap gain +$11,337
Max even-money escape in the band	~$146	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$97 cycle +$737 [-$1,821…-$3] · 25% credit	79% surv 75%	-$18,066 NOT cap gain +$12,684
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$136	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.07/sh	+$34 cycle +$674 [-$1,286…-$20] · 24% credit	76% surv 68%	-$21,474 NOT cap gain +$9,276
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$153	28 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.24/sh	-$619 cycle +$21 [-$2,797…-$734] · 3% credit	83% surv 80%	-$16,441 NOT cap gain +$14,309
budget: banked $640 debit $619 (97% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,917/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,600/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	+110%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,600/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $128 is $56 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$27,366
… as % of IC ($13,500)	202.7%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	62.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,760

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.28 collected) or spot ≥ $129.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $128)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $126.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $127-129.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $129.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$128.00 (2.1σ)	$640	$-24,137	+$6,613	+$415
+2.5%	$131.20 (2.5σ)	$-960	$-24,666	+$6,084	-$1,185
+5%	$134.40 (2.8σ)	$-2,560	$-25,196	+$5,554	-$2,785
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (8.8σ)	$-28,360	$-33,736	-$2,986	-$28,085

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $128): -$27,366

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,406 ($-2,656 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,591, the opportunity cost of earning $9,600/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPCX are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 14 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $828/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $128 (50% normal), 82% survival, breach 18%, $4,783/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $135 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 18% → 12%) for $1,650/mo less (34% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

SPCX spot $110.14 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $139

14 Aug

26.2%

93%hist 99%

14%hist 6%

+10pp

$740

$2,467

-$2,317

$21,766

Sell 5 × $139 26.2% OTM over spot $110.14 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.57 mid)

= $740 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,467/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $139)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $140.57)

94%

EV / mo

+$1,882

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,605/mo

median; plan ~$1,092/mo after 68% keep · $9,864 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.8-5.2], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,376

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$149 @ 76% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.63/sh now → $8.23 mid-life (likely $6.68–$11.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 356 simulated challenges: the $139 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $144 (overshoots $4.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$139	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.23/sh	+$613 cycle +$1,353 [+$376…+$1,525] · 91% credit	69% surv 53%	-$19,744 NOT cap gain +$11,006
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$145	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.54/sh	+$270 cycle +$1,010 [-$190…+$1,173] · 67% credit	74% surv 62%	-$18,127 NOT cap gain +$12,623
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$142	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.12/sh	+$60 cycle +$800 [-$266…+$834] · 62% credit	71% surv 58%	-$19,342 NOT cap gain +$11,408
Max even-money escape in the band	~$146	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.18/sh	+$92 cycle +$832 [-$390…+$983] · 59% credit	74% surv 64%	-$17,971 NOT cap gain +$12,779
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$149	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.84/sh	-$421 cycle +$319 [-$1,028…+$412] · 39% credit	76% surv 68%	-$17,481 NOT cap gain +$13,269
budget: banked $740 debit $421 (57% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$319 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,158/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,467/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	-46%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	27% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,467/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $139 is $45 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,766
… as % of IC ($13,500)	161.2%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	50.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,795

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.48 collected) or spot ≥ $140.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $139)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $137.61	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $138-140.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $140.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$139.00 (1.6σ)	$740	$-20,357	+$10,393	+$515
+2.5%	$142.47 (1.8σ)	$-997	$-20,932	+$9,818	-$1,222
+5%	$145.95 (2.0σ)	$-2,735	$-21,507	+$9,243	-$2,960
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (4.2σ)	$-22,760	$-28,136	+$2,614	-$22,485

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $139): -$21,766

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,806 (+$2,944 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,991, the opportunity cost of earning $2,467/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $135

14 Aug

22.6%

88%hist 95%

25%hist 18%

+9pp

$940

$3,133

-$1,650

$23,566

Sell 5 × $135 22.6% OTM over spot $110.14 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.97 mid)

= $940 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,133/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $135)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $136.97)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,598

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,694/mo

median; plan ~$1,152/mo after 68% keep · $9,850 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,058

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$149 @ 77% POP

71% survival

Buyback gross: $11.30/sh now → $8.00 mid-life (likely $6.94–$11.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $135 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $139 (overshoots $4.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$135	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.34/sh	+$670 cycle +$1,610 [+$324…+$1,387] · 93% credit	69% surv 53%	-$20,825 NOT cap gain +$9,925
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$141	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.65/sh	+$323 cycle +$1,263 [-$296…+$1,052] · 61% credit	74% surv 62%	-$19,212 NOT cap gain +$11,538
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$138	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.23/sh	+$116 cycle +$1,056 [-$351…+$749] · 54% credit	71% surv 58%	-$20,423 NOT cap gain +$10,327
Max even-money escape in the band	~$142	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$145 cycle +$1,085 [-$537…+$832] · 52% credit	74% surv 64%	-$19,056 NOT cap gain +$11,694
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$149	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.84/sh	-$922 cycle +$18 [-$1,974…-$421] · 16% credit	77% surv 71%	-$17,782 NOT cap gain +$12,968
budget: banked $940 debit $922 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$18 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,125/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,133/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,133/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $135 is $49 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$23,566
… as % of IC ($13,500)	174.6%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	54.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,795

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.88 collected) or spot ≥ $136.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $135)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $133.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $134-136.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $136.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$135.00 (1.4σ)	$940	$-21,495	+$9,255	+$715
+2.5%	$138.38 (1.6σ)	$-748	$-22,054	+$8,696	-$972
+5%	$141.75 (1.7σ)	$-2,435	$-22,612	+$8,138	-$2,660
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (4.2σ)	$-24,560	$-29,936	+$814	-$24,285

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $135): -$23,566

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,606 (+$1,144 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,791, the opportunity cost of earning $3,133/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $128

14 Aug

16.2%

82%hist 95%

38%hist 22%

+9pp

$1,435

$4,783

—

$26,571

Sell 5 × $128 16.2% OTM over spot $110.14 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.99 mid)

= $1,435 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,783/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $128)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $130.99)

85%

EV / mo

+$2,139

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

45% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,055/mo

median; plan ~$1,397/mo after 68% keep · $13,627 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.7-5.5], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,355

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$146 @ 80% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $10.71/sh now → $7.58 mid-life (likely $7.54–$11.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 797 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $132 (overshoots $4.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$128	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.52/sh	+$759 cycle +$2,194 [+$258…+$1,145] · 90% credit	69% surv 53%	-$22,582 NOT cap gain +$8,168
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$133	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.21/sh	+$605 cycle +$2,040 [-$136…+$988] · 68% credit	73% surv 61%	-$21,112 NOT cap gain +$9,638
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$131	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.41/sh	+$203 cycle +$1,638 [-$386…+$519] · 49% credit	71% surv 59%	-$22,183 NOT cap gain +$8,567
Max even-money escape in the band	~$136	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.10/sh	+$48 cycle +$1,483 [-$796…+$345] · 38% credit	75% surv 66%	-$20,665 NOT cap gain +$10,085
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$146	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.74/sh	-$1,368 cycle +$67 [-$2,701…-$1,273] · 4% credit	80% surv 76%	-$18,736 NOT cap gain +$12,014
budget: banked $1,435 debit $1,368 (95% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,038/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,783/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,783/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $128 is $56 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,571
… as % of IC ($13,500)	196.8%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	61.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,808

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.87 collected) or spot ≥ $130.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $128)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $126.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $127-130.99	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $130.99	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$128.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,435	$-23,342	+$7,408	+$1,210
+2.5%	$131.20 (1.2σ)	$-165	$-23,871	+$6,879	-$390
+5%	$134.40 (1.3σ)	$-1,765	$-24,401	+$6,349	-$1,990
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (4.2σ)	$-27,565	$-32,941	-$2,191	-$27,290

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $128): -$26,571

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,611 ($-1,861 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,796, the opportunity cost of earning $4,783/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $117

14 Aug

6.2%

67%hist 78%

71%hist 59%

+18pp

$2,875

$9,583

+$4,800

$30,631

Sell 5 × $117 6.2% OTM over spot $110.14 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $5.85 mid)

= $2,875 credit for the 9d cycle → $9,583/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

67%

Breach risk

33%

POP (stays ≤ $122.85)

76%

EV / mo

+$3,158

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+18pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,061/mo

median; plan ~$2,082/mo after 68% keep · $19,221 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-5.3], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

57%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$590

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026)

$151 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $9.79/sh now → $6.93 mid-life (likely $8.80–$12.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,717 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $121 (overshoots $4.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.74/sh	+$872 cycle +$3,747 [+$161…+$695] · 88% credit	69% surv 54%	-$24,709 NOT cap gain +$6,041
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$120	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.19/sh	+$1,097 cycle +$3,972 [+$157…+$824] · 84% credit	72% surv 59%	-$23,528 NOT cap gain +$7,222
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$121	21 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.22/sh	+$110 cycle +$2,985 [-$730…-$174] · 19% credit	72% surv 61%	-$24,181 NOT cap gain +$6,569
Max even-money escape in the band	~$125	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$143 cycle +$3,018 [-$994…-$245] · 19% credit	76% surv 66%	-$22,810 NOT cap gain +$7,940
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$151	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$4.90/sh	-$2,452 cycle +$423 [-$4,516…-$3,155]	90% surv 89%	-$16,708 NOT cap gain +$14,042
budget: banked $2,875 debit $2,452 (85% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$423 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,688/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,583/mo
vs 50% target ($4,574/mo)	+110%
vs normal income ($9,148/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,583/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $117 is $67 below CC-SS $184.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,631
… as % of IC ($13,500)	226.9%
… as % of ML ($43,500)	70.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-30,800

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.44/sh (~25% of the $5.75 collected) or spot ≥ $122.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $117)); NOT the premium you collected.

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $115.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $116-122.85	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $122.85	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$117.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,875	$-25,581	+$5,169	+$2,650
+2.5%	$119.92 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,413	$-26,065	+$4,685	+$1,188
+5%	$122.85 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-50	$-26,549	+$4,201	-$275
SS (= V-bounce)	$186.00 (4.2σ)	$-31,625	$-37,001	-$6,251	-$31,350

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $184.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,709

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $117): -$30,631

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,671 ($-5,921 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,816 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,856, the opportunity cost of earning $9,583/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (81 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 81 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.669 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,709 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,816

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$136	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.62	5/5	$4,650	$4,650	95%	96%	+$3,528	-$23,696	175.5%	$-29,736 (vs do-nothing $-23,921)
$135	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.68	5/5	$5,100	$5,100	95%	95%	+$3,835	-$24,166	179.0%	$-30,206 (vs do-nothing $-24,391)
$134	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.73	5/5	$5,475	$5,475	94%	95%	+$4,042	-$24,641	182.5%	$-30,681 (vs do-nothing $-24,866)
$133	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.80	4/5	$4,800	$4,884	94%	94%	+$3,498	-$20,084	148.8%	$-26,080 (vs do-nothing $-20,264)
$132	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.88	4/5	$5,280	$5,364	93%	94%	+$3,796	-$20,452	151.5%	$-26,448 (vs do-nothing $-20,632)
$131	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.97	4/5	$5,820	$5,904	93%	93%	+$4,124	-$20,816	154.2%	$-26,812 (vs do-nothing $-20,996)
$130	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.06	3/5	$4,770	$4,939	92%	93%	+$3,313	-$15,885	117.7%	$-21,836 (vs do-nothing $-16,020)
$129	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.16	3/5	$5,220	$5,389	91%	92%	+$3,548	-$16,155	119.7%	$-22,106 (vs do-nothing $-16,290)
$128	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.28	3/5	$5,760	$5,929	90%	91%	+$3,837	-$16,419	121.6%	$-22,370 (vs do-nothing $-16,554)
$127	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.41	3/5	$6,345	$6,514	89%	90%	+$4,132	-$16,680	123.6%	$-22,631 (vs do-nothing $-16,815)
$126	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.55	2/5	$4,650	$4,903	88%	90%	+$2,950	-$11,292	83.6%	$-17,198 (vs do-nothing $-11,382)
$125	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.71	2/5	$5,130	$5,383	86%	89%	+$3,172	-$11,460	84.9%	$-17,366 (vs do-nothing $-11,550)
$124	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.87	2/5	$5,610	$5,863	85%	88%	+$3,354	-$11,628	86.1%	$-17,534 (vs do-nothing $-11,718)

Show 68 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 68.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$123	2d	7 Aug 2026	$2.05	2/5	$6,150	$6,403	83%	87%	+$3,552	-$11,792	87.3%	$-17,698 (vs do-nothing $-11,882)
$128	9d	14 Aug 2026	$2.87	5/5	$4,783	$4,783	82%	85%	+$2,139	-$26,571	196.8%	$-32,611 (vs do-nothing $-26,796)
$122	2d	7 Aug 2026	$2.27	2/5	$6,810	$7,063	82%	86%	+$3,821	-$11,948	88.5%	$-17,854 (vs do-nothing $-12,038)
$127	9d	14 Aug 2026	$3.05	5/5	$5,083	$5,083	81%	85%	+$2,218	-$26,981	199.9%	$-33,021 (vs do-nothing $-27,206)
$121	2d	7 Aug 2026	$2.47	2/5	$7,410	$7,663	80%	84%	+$3,979	-$12,108	89.7%	$-18,014 (vs do-nothing $-12,198)
$126	9d	14 Aug 2026	$3.20	5/5	$5,333	$5,333	80%	84%	+$2,227	-$27,406	203.0%	$-33,446 (vs do-nothing $-27,631)
$125	9d	14 Aug 2026	$3.45	4/5	$4,600	$4,684	79%	83%	+$1,905	-$22,224	164.6%	$-28,220 (vs do-nothing $-22,404)
$120	2d	7 Aug 2026	$2.71	2/5	$8,130	$8,383	78%	83%	+$4,199	-$12,260	90.8%	$-18,166 (vs do-nothing $-12,350)
$124	9d	14 Aug 2026	$3.70	4/5	$4,933	$5,018	77%	82%	+$2,010	-$22,524	166.8%	$-28,520 (vs do-nothing $-22,704)
$123	9d	14 Aug 2026	$3.90	4/5	$5,200	$5,284	76%	81%	+$2,028	-$22,844	169.2%	$-28,840 (vs do-nothing $-23,024)
$119	2d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	2/5	$9,000	$9,253	76%	82%	+$4,493	-$12,402	91.9%	$-18,308 (vs do-nothing $-12,492)
$122	9d	14 Aug 2026	$4.15	4/5	$5,533	$5,618	75%	81%	+$2,092	-$23,144	171.4%	$-29,140 (vs do-nothing $-23,324)
$124	16d	21 Aug 2026	$5.10	5/5	$4,781	$4,781	75%	80%	+$1,708	-$27,456	203.4%	$-33,496 (vs do-nothing $-27,681)
$118	2d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	1/5	$4,950	$5,288	74%	81%	+$2,379	-$6,271	46.5%	$-12,132 (vs do-nothing $-6,316)
$123	16d	21 Aug 2026	$5.35	5/5	$5,016	$5,016	73%	80%	+$1,736	-$27,831	206.2%	$-33,871 (vs do-nothing $-28,056)
$121	9d	14 Aug 2026	$4.40	4/5	$5,867	$5,951	73%	80%	+$2,134	-$23,444	173.7%	$-29,440 (vs do-nothing $-23,624)
$122	16d	21 Aug 2026	$5.65	5/5	$5,297	$5,297	72%	78%	+$1,567	-$28,181	208.7%	$-34,221 (vs do-nothing $-28,406)
$120	9d	14 Aug 2026	$4.75	3/5	$4,750	$4,919	72%	79%	+$1,714	-$17,778	131.7%	$-23,729 (vs do-nothing $-17,913)
$117	2d	7 Aug 2026	$3.60	1/5	$5,400	$5,738	71%	80%	+$2,476	-$6,341	47.0%	$-12,202 (vs do-nothing $-6,386)
$121	16d	21 Aug 2026	$5.90	5/5	$5,531	$5,531	70%	78%	+$1,550	-$28,556	211.5%	$-34,596 (vs do-nothing $-28,781)
$119	9d	14 Aug 2026	$5.05	3/5	$5,050	$5,219	70%	78%	+$1,760	-$17,988	133.2%	$-23,939 (vs do-nothing $-18,123)
$120	16d	21 Aug 2026	$6.20	4/5	$4,650	$4,734	70%	77%	+$1,466	-$23,124	171.3%	$-29,120 (vs do-nothing $-23,304)
$116	2d	7 Aug 2026	$3.95	1/5	$5,925	$6,262	69%	78%	+$2,608	-$6,406	47.5%	$-12,267 (vs do-nothing $-6,451)
$121	23d	28 Aug 2026	$7.05	5/5	$4,598	$4,598	69%	76%	+$827	-$27,981	207.3%	$-34,021 (vs do-nothing $-28,206)
$118	9d	14 Aug 2026	$5.35	3/5	$5,350	$5,519	68%	77%	+$1,788	-$18,198	134.8%	$-24,149 (vs do-nothing $-18,333)
$120	23d	28 Aug 2026	$7.40	5/5	$4,826	$4,826	68%	77%	+$1,453	-$28,306	209.7%	$-34,346 (vs do-nothing $-28,531)
$119	16d	21 Aug 2026	$6.55	4/5	$4,912	$4,997	68%	77%	+$1,519	-$23,384	173.2%	$-29,380 (vs do-nothing $-23,564)
$119	23d	28 Aug 2026	$7.70	5/5	$5,022	$5,022	67%	76%	+$1,450	-$28,656	212.3%	$-34,696 (vs do-nothing $-28,881)
$117	9d	14 Aug 2026	$5.75	3/5	$5,750	$5,919	67%	76%	+$1,895	-$18,378	136.1%	$-24,329 (vs do-nothing $-18,513)
$118	16d	21 Aug 2026	$6.85	4/5	$5,138	$5,222	67%	76%	+$1,521	-$23,664	175.3%	$-29,660 (vs do-nothing $-23,844)
$115	2d	7 Aug 2026	$4.35	1/5	$6,525	$6,862	66%	77%	+$2,772	-$6,466	47.9%	$-12,327 (vs do-nothing $-6,511)
$118	23d	28 Aug 2026	$8.05	5/5	$5,250	$5,250	66%	76%	+$1,469	-$28,981	214.7%	$-35,021 (vs do-nothing $-29,206)
$117	16d	21 Aug 2026	$7.25	4/5	$5,438	$5,522	65%	75%	+$1,586	-$23,904	177.1%	$-29,900 (vs do-nothing $-24,084)
$116	9d	14 Aug 2026	$6.05	3/5	$6,050	$6,219	65%	75%	+$1,869	-$18,588	137.7%	$-24,539 (vs do-nothing $-18,723)
$117	23d	28 Aug 2026	$8.40	5/5	$5,478	$5,478	65%	75%	+$1,486	-$29,306	217.1%	$-35,346 (vs do-nothing $-29,531)
$116	16d	21 Aug 2026	$7.60	4/5	$5,700	$5,784	64%	74%	+$1,600	-$24,164	179.0%	$-30,160 (vs do-nothing $-24,344)
$114	2d	7 Aug 2026	$4.70	1/5	$7,050	$7,388	64%	76%	+$2,816	-$6,531	48.4%	$-12,392 (vs do-nothing $-6,576)
$116	23d	28 Aug 2026	$8.75	5/5	$5,707	$5,707	63%	74%	+$1,495	-$29,631	219.5%	$-35,671 (vs do-nothing $-29,856)
$115	9d	14 Aug 2026	$6.45	3/5	$6,450	$6,619	63%	74%	+$1,936	-$18,768	139.0%	$-24,719 (vs do-nothing $-18,903)
$115	16d	21 Aug 2026	$7.95	4/5	$5,962	$6,047	62%	74%	+$1,600	-$24,424	180.9%	$-30,420 (vs do-nothing $-24,604)
$115	23d	28 Aug 2026	$9.15	4/5	$4,774	$4,858	62%	74%	+$1,222	-$23,944	177.4%	$-29,940 (vs do-nothing $-24,124)
$114	9d	14 Aug 2026	$6.75	3/5	$6,750	$6,919	61%	73%	+$1,877	-$18,978	140.6%	$-24,929 (vs do-nothing $-19,113)
$113	2d	7 Aug 2026	$5.15	1/5	$7,725	$8,062	61%	75%	+$2,960	-$6,586	48.8%	$-12,447 (vs do-nothing $-6,631)
$114	16d	21 Aug 2026	$8.40	3/5	$4,725	$4,894	61%	73%	+$1,247	-$18,483	136.9%	$-24,434 (vs do-nothing $-18,618)
$114	23d	28 Aug 2026	$9.55	4/5	$4,983	$5,067	60%	73%	+$1,238	-$24,184	179.1%	$-30,180 (vs do-nothing $-24,364)
$113	9d	14 Aug 2026	$7.25	2/5	$4,833	$5,086	59%	72%	+$1,326	-$12,752	94.5%	$-18,658 (vs do-nothing $-12,842)
$113	16d	21 Aug 2026	$8.80	3/5	$4,950	$5,119	59%	72%	+$1,254	-$18,663	138.2%	$-24,614 (vs do-nothing $-18,798)
$113	23d	28 Aug 2026	$9.95	4/5	$5,191	$5,276	59%	72%	+$1,243	-$24,424	180.9%	$-30,420 (vs do-nothing $-24,604)
$112	2d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	1/5	$8,400	$8,738	58%	73%	+$3,053	-$6,641	49.2%	$-12,502 (vs do-nothing $-6,686)
$112	23d	28 Aug 2026	$10.40	4/5	$5,426	$5,510	57%	72%	+$1,259	-$24,644	182.6%	$-30,640 (vs do-nothing $-24,824)
$112	16d	21 Aug 2026	$9.25	3/5	$5,203	$5,372	57%	72%	+$1,279	-$18,828	139.5%	$-24,779 (vs do-nothing $-18,963)
$112	9d	14 Aug 2026	$7.75	2/5	$5,167	$5,420	57%	72%	+$1,385	-$12,852	95.2%	$-18,758 (vs do-nothing $-12,942)
$111	23d	28 Aug 2026	$11.00	4/5	$5,739	$5,824	56%	71%	+$1,352	-$24,804	183.7%	$-30,800 (vs do-nothing $-24,984)
$111	16d	21 Aug 2026	$9.70	3/5	$5,456	$5,625	56%	71%	+$1,293	-$18,993	140.7%	$-24,944 (vs do-nothing $-19,128)
$111	9d	14 Aug 2026	$8.10	2/5	$5,400	$5,653	55%	71%	+$1,368	-$12,982	96.2%	$-18,888 (vs do-nothing $-13,072)
$111	2d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	1/5	$9,075	$9,412	55%	72%	+$3,097	-$6,696	49.6%	$-12,557 (vs do-nothing $-6,741)
$110	23d	28 Aug 2026	$11.30	4/5	$5,896	$5,980	54%	70%	+$1,278	-$25,084	185.8%	$-31,080 (vs do-nothing $-25,264)
$110	16d	21 Aug 2026	$9.90	3/5	$5,569	$5,738	54%	70%	+$1,155	-$19,233	142.5%	$-25,184 (vs do-nothing $-19,368)
$110	9d	14 Aug 2026	$8.60	2/5	$5,733	$5,986	53%	70%	+$1,396	-$13,082	96.9%	$-18,988 (vs do-nothing $-13,172)
$109	23d	28 Aug 2026	$11.75	3/5	$4,598	$4,767	53%	70%	+$954	-$18,978	140.6%	$-24,929 (vs do-nothing $-19,113)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-05 21:42