5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $189.02 (banked floor $182.77) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,016/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,345/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,662 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 4 Sep 2026 · 2d | 4 × $147 | 91% | $2,520 | $2,201 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 11 Sep 2026 · 9d | 5 × $147 | 75% | $2,767 | $726 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $149 | 4 Sep | 2d | 6.0% | 96%hist 96% | 9%hist 2% | +11pp | $120 | $1,800 | -$720 | $19,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $149 6.0% OTM over spot $140.63 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid) = $120 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $149) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $149.25) 96% EV / mo +$1,525 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,153/mo median; plan ~$784/mo after 68% keep · $8,323 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.0-5.2], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$739 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $166 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.78–$3.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 207 simulated challenges: the $149 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $151 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $149 is $40 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $149.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $149)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $149): -$19,889 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,245 (+$2,418 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,955, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $147 | 4 Sep | 2d | 4.5% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +20pp | $168 | $2,520 | — | $16,639 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $147 4.5% OTM over spot $140.63 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $168 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $147) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $147.43) 92% EV / mo +$1,826 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,884/mo median; plan ~$1,281/mo after 68% keep · $12,124 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.2-5.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$510 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $164 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.81–$3.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 380 simulated challenges: the $147 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $149 (overshoots $2.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $147 is $42 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $147.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $147)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $147): -$16,639 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$387 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,382 (+$5,281 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,092, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $147 | 4 Sep | 2d | 4.5% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +20pp | $210 | $3,150 | +$630 | $20,799 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $147 4.5% OTM over spot $140.63 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $210 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $147) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $147.43) 92% EV / mo +$2,282 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,297/mo median; plan ~$1,562/mo after 68% keep · $14,012 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.9-5.5], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$638 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $164 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 364 simulated challenges: the $147 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $149 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $147 is $42 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $147.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $147)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $147): -$20,799 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,155 (+$1,508 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,865, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $145 | 4 Sep | 2d | 3.1% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 31% | +33pp | $370 | $5,550 | +$3,030 | $21,639 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $145 3.1% OTM over spot $140.63 4 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.76 mid) = $370 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $145) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $145.75) 86% EV / mo +$3,209 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +33pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,286/mo median; plan ~$2,234/mo after 68% keep · $16,524 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.1-5.4], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$466 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $167 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 765 simulated challenges: the $145 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $147 (overshoots $2.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $145 is $44 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $145.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $145)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $145): -$21,639 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,995 (+$668 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,705, the opportunity cost of earning $5,550/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $155 | 11 Sep | 9d | 10.2% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +4pp | $250 | $833 | -$1,933 | $16,759 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 10.2% OTM over spot $140.63 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.51 mid) = $250 credit for the 9d cycle → $833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $155.51) 92% EV / mo +$427 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $582/mo median; plan ~$396/mo after 68% keep · $4,370 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.9-5.6], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,363 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $163 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.56/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $2.64–$4.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $157 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $34 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $155.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$16,759 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,115 (+$5,548 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,825, the opportunity cost of earning $833/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $150 | 11 Sep | 9d | 6.7% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 31% | +10pp | $530 | $1,767 | -$1,000 | $18,979 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $150 6.7% OTM over spot $140.63 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.08 mid) = $530 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,767/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $151.07) 85% EV / mo +$717 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,005/mo median; plan ~$683/mo after 68% keep · $7,812 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.6-6.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,031 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $159 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.41/sh now → $3.12 mid-life (likely $3.06–$4.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 767 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $152 (overshoots $2.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $39 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $151.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$18,979 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,335 (+$3,328 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,045, the opportunity cost of earning $1,767/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $147 | 11 Sep | 9d | 4.5% | 75%hist 84% | 51%hist 43% | +11pp | $830 | $2,767 | — | $20,179 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $147 4.5% OTM over spot $140.63 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.68 mid) = $830 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,767/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $147) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $148.68) 80% EV / mo +$911 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,288/mo median; plan ~$876/mo after 68% keep · $9,787 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.4-5.7], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$700 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $161 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.33/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $3.36–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,192 simulated challenges: the $147 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $149 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $147 is $42 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.66 collected) or spot ≥ $148.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $147)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $147): -$20,179 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,535 (+$2,128 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,245, the opportunity cost of earning $2,767/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $142 | 11 Sep | 9d | 1.0% | 57%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | +17pp | $1,675 | $5,583 | +$2,817 | $21,834 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $142 1.0% OTM over spot $140.63 11 Sep 2026 (9d, $3.40 mid) = $1,675 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $142) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $145.40) 70% EV / mo +$1,128 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,791/mo median; plan ~$1,218/mo after 68% keep · $11,653 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.1-5.2], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$197 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $161 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.18/sh now → $2.96 mid-life (likely $3.99–$5.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,185 simulated challenges: the $142 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $144 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $142 is $47 below CC-SS $189.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $145.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $142)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,662 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,307 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $142): -$21,834 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,190 (+$473 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,290 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,900, the opportunity cost of earning $5,583/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.922 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,307 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,290
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.42 | 4/5 | $2,520 | $2,548 | 91% | 92% | +$1,826 | -$16,639 | 123.3% | $-19,382 (vs do-nothing $-15,092) |
| $146 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.56 | 3/5 | $2,520 | $2,576 | 87% | 89% | +$1,648 | -$12,737 | 94.3% | $-15,867 (vs do-nothing $-11,577) |
| $145 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.74 | 3/5 | $3,330 | $3,386 | 82% | 86% | +$1,925 | -$12,983 | 96.2% | $-16,113 (vs do-nothing $-11,823) |
| $144 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.98 | 2/5 | $2,940 | $3,024 | 76% | 82% | +$1,488 | -$8,807 | 65.2% | $-12,324 (vs do-nothing $-8,034) |
| $147 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.66 | 5/5 | $2,767 | $2,767 | 75% | 80% | +$911 | -$20,179 | 149.5% | $-22,535 (vs do-nothing $-18,245) |
| $146 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.93 | 4/5 | $2,573 | $2,601 | 72% | 78% | +$788 | -$16,435 | 121.7% | $-19,178 (vs do-nothing $-14,888) |
| $145 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.23 | 4/5 | $2,973 | $3,001 | 68% | 76% | +$834 | -$16,715 | 123.8% | $-19,458 (vs do-nothing $-15,168) |
| $143 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.27 | 2/5 | $3,810 | $3,894 | 68% | 76% | +$1,193 | -$8,949 | 66.3% | $-12,466 (vs do-nothing $-8,176) |
| $147 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.05 | 5/5 | $2,641 | $2,641 | 67% | 75% | +$666 | -$18,984 | 140.6% | $-21,340 (vs do-nothing $-17,050) |
| $146 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $3,094 | $3,094 | 67% | 75% | +$757 | -$19,859 | 147.1% | $-22,215 (vs do-nothing $-17,925) |
| $146 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.40 | 5/5 | $2,870 | $2,870 | 65% | 74% | +$686 | -$19,309 | 143.0% | $-21,665 (vs do-nothing $-17,375) |
| $144 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.57 | 3/5 | $2,570 | $2,626 | 65% | 74% | +$656 | -$12,734 | 94.3% | $-15,864 (vs do-nothing $-11,574) |
| $145 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.65 | 4/5 | $2,738 | $2,766 | 64% | 74% | +$647 | -$16,147 | 119.6% | $-18,890 (vs do-nothing $-14,600) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.75 | 5/5 | $3,098 | $3,098 | 63% | 73% | +$688 | -$19,634 | 145.4% | $-21,990 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $144 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.05 | 4/5 | $3,038 | $3,066 | 62% | 72% | +$682 | -$16,387 | 121.4% | $-19,130 (vs do-nothing $-14,840) |
| $142 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.63 | 2/5 | $4,890 | $4,974 | 61% | 72% | +$1,305 | -$9,077 | 67.2% | $-12,594 (vs do-nothing $-8,304) |
| $143 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.94 | 3/5 | $2,940 | $2,996 | 61% | 72% | +$671 | -$12,923 | 95.7% | $-16,053 (vs do-nothing $-11,763) |
| $144 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.15 | 4/5 | $2,687 | $2,715 | 60% | 72% | +$564 | -$15,947 | 118.1% | $-18,690 (vs do-nothing $-14,400) |
| $143 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.45 | 4/5 | $3,338 | $3,366 | 59% | 71% | +$690 | -$16,627 | 123.2% | $-19,370 (vs do-nothing $-15,080) |
| $143 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.60 | 4/5 | $2,922 | $2,950 | 58% | 70% | +$588 | -$16,167 | 119.8% | $-18,910 (vs do-nothing $-14,620) |
| $142 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 3/5 | $3,350 | $3,406 | 57% | 70% | +$677 | -$13,100 | 97.0% | $-16,230 (vs do-nothing $-11,940) |
| $142 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $2,756 | $2,812 | 56% | 69% | +$529 | -$12,635 | 93.6% | $-15,765 (vs do-nothing $-11,475) |
| $142 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 4/5 | $3,130 | $3,159 | 56% | 69% | +$572 | -$16,407 | 121.5% | $-19,150 (vs do-nothing $-14,860) |
| $141 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.07 | 1/5 | $3,105 | $3,217 | 54% | 68% | +$691 | -$4,595 | 34.0% | $-8,498 (vs do-nothing $-4,208) |
| $141 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.40 | 4/5 | $3,339 | $3,367 | 53% | 68% | +$539 | -$16,647 | 123.3% | $-19,390 (vs do-nothing $-15,100) |
| $141 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $3,009 | $3,066 | 53% | 68% | +$519 | -$12,800 | 94.8% | $-15,930 (vs do-nothing $-11,640) |
| $141 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 2/5 | $2,533 | $2,618 | 53% | 68% | +$449 | -$8,843 | 65.5% | $-12,360 (vs do-nothing $-8,070) |
| $140 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.00 | 3/5 | $2,739 | $2,795 | 51% | 67% | +$456 | -$12,605 | 93.4% | $-15,735 (vs do-nothing $-11,445) |
| $140 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.80 | 3/5 | $3,262 | $3,319 | 50% | 67% | +$488 | -$12,965 | 96.0% | $-16,095 (vs do-nothing $-11,805) |
| $140 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.30 | 2/5 | $2,867 | $2,951 | 49% | 66% | +$447 | -$8,943 | 66.2% | $-12,460 (vs do-nothing $-8,170) |
| $139 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.45 | 3/5 | $2,915 | $2,971 | 48% | 66% | +$431 | -$12,770 | 94.6% | $-15,900 (vs do-nothing $-11,610) |
| $139 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.35 | 3/5 | $3,572 | $3,628 | 47% | 65% | +$495 | -$13,100 | 97.0% | $-16,230 (vs do-nothing $-11,940) |
| $140 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.58 | 1/5 | $3,870 | $3,983 | 46% | 65% | +$692 | -$4,644 | 34.4% | $-8,547 (vs do-nothing $-4,257) |
| $138 | 23d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.00 | 3/5 | $3,130 | $3,187 | 46% | 65% | +$434 | -$12,905 | 95.6% | $-16,035 (vs do-nothing $-11,745) |
| $139 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.80 | 2/5 | $3,200 | $3,284 | 45% | 64% | +$412 | -$9,043 | 67.0% | $-12,560 (vs do-nothing $-8,270) |
| $138 | 16d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.90 | 2/5 | $2,588 | $2,672 | 44% | 64% | +$322 | -$8,823 | 65.4% | $-12,340 (vs do-nothing $-8,050) |
| $138 | 9d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $3,684 | 41% | 63% | +$412 | -$9,123 | 67.6% | $-12,640 (vs do-nothing $-8,350) |
| $139 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 1/5 | $4,725 | $4,838 | 39% | 62% | +$657 | -$4,687 | 34.7% | $-8,590 (vs do-nothing $-4,300) |
| $138 | 2d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 1/5 | $5,700 | $5,812 | 31% | 60% | +$606 | -$4,722 | 35.0% | $-8,625 (vs do-nothing $-4,335) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.