5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $189.70 (banked floor $183.44) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,670/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,279/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,438 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 8d | 4 × $150 | 73% | $2,910 | $738 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $160 | 11 Sep | 8d | 11.1% | 92%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | +5pp | $220 | $825 | -$2,085 | $14,628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 11.1% OTM over spot $144.03 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $0.46 mid) = $220 credit for the 8d cycle → $825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $160.46) 93% EV / mo +$441 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $604/mo median; plan ~$411/mo after 68% keep · $4,138 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-5.4], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,482 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $168 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.81/sh now → $3.40 mid-life (likely $2.79–$4.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 260 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $162 (overshoots $2.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $30 below CC-SS $189.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $160.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$14,628 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,694 (+$6,744 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,365, the opportunity cost of earning $825/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $152.50 | 11 Sep | 8d | 5.9% | 80%hist 84% | 41%hist 38% | +8pp | $544 | $2,040 | -$870 | $14,334 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $152.50 5.9% OTM over spot $144.03 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.39 mid) = $544 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $153.88) 83% EV / mo +$796 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,105/mo median; plan ~$751/mo after 68% keep · $7,652 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.6-5.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$754 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $166 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $3.36–$5.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 924 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $155 (overshoots $2.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $37 below CC-SS $189.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.36 collected) or spot ≥ $153.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,372 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $152.50): -$14,334 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$453 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,853 (+$6,585 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,524, the opportunity cost of earning $2,040/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $150 | 11 Sep | 8d | 4.1% | 73%hist 84% | 55%hist 43% | +11pp | $776 | $2,910 | — | $15,102 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $150 4.1% OTM over spot $144.03 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $1.96 mid) = $776 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,910/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $151.97) 79% EV / mo +$964 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,353/mo median; plan ~$920/mo after 68% keep · $8,620 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.1], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$501 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $166 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.51/sh now → $3.19 mid-life (likely $3.49–$5.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,269 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $152 (overshoots $2.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $40 below CC-SS $189.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $151.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,372 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $150): -$15,102 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$453 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,621 (+$5,817 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,292, the opportunity cost of earning $2,910/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $146 | 11 Sep | 8d | 1.4% | 59%hist 69% | 84%hist 79% | +18pp | $1,650 | $6,188 | +$3,278 | $20,198 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $146 1.4% OTM over spot $144.03 11 Sep 2026 (8d, $3.35 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $146) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $149.35) 71% EV / mo +$1,441 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,053/mo median; plan ~$1,396/mo after 68% keep · $12,274 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-5.5], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$97 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $167 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.39/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $4.13–$5.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,044 simulated challenges: the $146 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $148 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $146 is $44 below CC-SS $189.70: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $149.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $146)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.94 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.70, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $146): -$20,198 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,264 (+$1,174 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,935, the opportunity cost of earning $6,188/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.936 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,372 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,329
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.94 | 4/5 | $2,910 | $2,944 | 73% | 79% | +$964 | -$15,102 | 111.9% | $-17,621 (vs do-nothing $-13,292) |
| $149 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.22 | 4/5 | $3,330 | $3,364 | 70% | 77% | +$1,015 | -$15,390 | 114.0% | $-17,909 (vs do-nothing $-13,580) |
| $150 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $3,400 | $3,400 | 68% | 75% | +$876 | -$18,148 | 134.4% | $-20,214 (vs do-nothing $-15,885) |
| $148 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.54 | 3/5 | $2,858 | $2,926 | 66% | 75% | +$800 | -$11,747 | 87.0% | $-14,718 (vs do-nothing $-10,389) |
| $150 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 5/5 | $3,102 | $3,102 | 66% | 74% | +$772 | -$17,573 | 130.2% | $-19,639 (vs do-nothing $-15,310) |
| $149 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 5/5 | $3,341 | $3,341 | 63% | 73% | +$780 | -$17,898 | 132.6% | $-19,964 (vs do-nothing $-15,635) |
| $147 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.90 | 3/5 | $3,262 | $3,330 | 63% | 73% | +$835 | -$11,939 | 88.4% | $-14,910 (vs do-nothing $-10,581) |
| $148 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 4/5 | $2,891 | $2,925 | 61% | 72% | +$643 | -$14,558 | 107.8% | $-17,077 (vs do-nothing $-12,748) |
| $147 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 4/5 | $3,109 | $3,143 | 59% | 71% | +$647 | -$14,798 | 109.6% | $-17,317 (vs do-nothing $-12,988) |
| $146 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 3/5 | $3,712 | $3,780 | 59% | 71% | +$864 | -$12,119 | 89.8% | $-15,090 (vs do-nothing $-10,761) |
| $146 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $2,940 | $3,008 | 57% | 70% | +$570 | -$11,639 | 86.2% | $-14,610 (vs do-nothing $-10,281) |
| $146 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $3,327 | $3,361 | 57% | 70% | +$637 | -$15,038 | 111.4% | $-17,557 (vs do-nothing $-13,228) |
| $145 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.70 | 3/5 | $4,162 | $4,230 | 55% | 69% | +$839 | -$12,299 | 91.1% | $-15,270 (vs do-nothing $-10,941) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $145 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.30 | 3/5 | $3,180 | $3,248 | 55% | 69% | +$549 | -$11,819 | 87.5% | $-14,790 (vs do-nothing $-10,461) |
| $145 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.45 | 4/5 | $3,518 | $3,552 | 55% | 69% | +$583 | -$15,298 | 113.3% | $-17,817 (vs do-nothing $-13,488) |
| $144 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.00 | 3/5 | $2,864 | $2,932 | 52% | 68% | +$468 | -$11,609 | 86.0% | $-14,580 (vs do-nothing $-10,251) |
| $144 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $3,420 | $3,488 | 52% | 67% | +$508 | -$11,999 | 88.9% | $-14,970 (vs do-nothing $-10,641) |
| $144 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 2/5 | $3,075 | $3,177 | 51% | 67% | +$506 | -$8,319 | 61.6% | $-11,743 (vs do-nothing $-7,414) |
| $143 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.35 | 3/5 | $3,007 | $3,075 | 50% | 67% | +$404 | -$11,804 | 87.4% | $-14,775 (vs do-nothing $-10,446) |
| $143 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.20 | 3/5 | $3,720 | $3,788 | 49% | 66% | +$506 | -$12,149 | 90.0% | $-15,120 (vs do-nothing $-10,791) |
| $142 | 22d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.00 | 3/5 | $3,273 | $3,341 | 48% | 66% | +$471 | -$11,909 | 88.2% | $-14,880 (vs do-nothing $-10,551) |
| $143 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $3,412 | $3,514 | 47% | 65% | +$452 | -$8,429 | 62.4% | $-11,853 (vs do-nothing $-7,524) |
| $142 | 15d | 18 Sep 2026 | $6.75 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $4,118 | 46% | 65% | +$513 | -$12,284 | 91.0% | $-15,255 (vs do-nothing $-10,926) |
| $142 | 8d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 2/5 | $3,825 | $3,927 | 44% | 63% | +$380 | -$8,519 | 63.1% | $-11,943 (vs do-nothing $-7,614) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.