5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $189.28 (banked floor $182.98) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,375/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,148/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,350 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 11 Sep 2026 · 7d | 5 × $157.50 | 77% | $3,536 | $1,371 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $165 | 11 Sep | 7d | 10.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 13% | +4pp | $310 | $1,329 | -$2,207 | $11,829 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $165 10.1% OTM over spot $149.81 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.63 mid) = $310 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,329/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $165.63) 92% EV / mo +$770 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $936/mo median; plan ~$636/mo after 68% keep · $5,473 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,383 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $180 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.79/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $2.91–$5.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 302 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $168 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $24 below CC-SS $189.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $165.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,142 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$11,829 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,037 (+$7,313 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,182 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,855, the opportunity cost of earning $1,329/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $160 | 11 Sep | 7d | 6.8% | 83%hist 86% | 34%hist 31% | +7pp | $590 | $2,529 | -$1,007 | $14,049 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 6.8% OTM over spot $149.81 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.20 mid) = $590 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,529/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $161.20) 86% EV / mo +$1,146 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,461/mo median; plan ~$994/mo after 68% keep · $7,613 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,052 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $180 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.64/sh now → $3.28 mid-life (likely $3.16–$5.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 634 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $162 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $29 below CC-SS $189.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $161.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,142 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$14,049 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,257 (+$5,093 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,182 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,075, the opportunity cost of earning $2,529/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $157.50 | 11 Sep | 7d | 5.1% | 77%hist 84% | 46%hist 38% | +13pp | $825 | $3,536 | — | $15,064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 5.1% OTM over spot $149.81 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.67 mid) = $825 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $159.16) 82% EV / mo +$1,377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,796/mo median; plan ~$1,221/mo after 68% keep · $8,192 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$791 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $178 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.57/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $3.38–$5.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,037 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $160 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $32 below CC-SS $189.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $159.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,142 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$15,064 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,272 (+$4,078 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,182 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,090, the opportunity cost of earning $3,536/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $152.50 | 11 Sep | 7d | 1.8% | 62%hist 66% | 79%hist 65% | +15pp | $1,550 | $6,643 | +$3,107 | $16,839 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $152.50 1.8% OTM over spot $149.81 11 Sep 2026 (7d, $3.15 mid) = $1,550 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $155.65) 72% EV / mo +$1,685 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,388/mo median; plan ~$1,624/mo after 68% keep · $9,091 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-3.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$15 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $183 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.43/sh now → $3.13 mid-life (likely $4.05–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,864 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $155 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $37 below CC-SS $189.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $155.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,142 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $152.50): -$16,839 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,047 (+$2,303 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,182 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,865, the opportunity cost of earning $6,643/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.970 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,142 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,182
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 5/5 | $3,536 | $3,536 | 77% | 82% | +$1,377 | -$15,064 | 111.6% | $-16,272 (vs do-nothing $-13,090) |
| $157.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $3,321 | $3,321 | 71% | 78% | +$989 | -$14,339 | 106.2% | $-15,547 (vs do-nothing $-12,365) |
| $155 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.28 | 4/5 | $3,909 | $3,979 | 70% | 77% | +$1,258 | -$12,799 | 94.8% | $-14,402 (vs do-nothing $-11,220) |
| $155 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 4/5 | $3,343 | $3,414 | 65% | 74% | +$877 | -$12,151 | 90.0% | $-13,754 (vs do-nothing $-10,572) |
| $155 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $3,679 | $3,679 | 63% | 73% | +$883 | -$14,564 | 107.9% | $-15,772 (vs do-nothing $-12,590) |
| $155 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.25 | 5/5 | $3,348 | $3,348 | 62% | 73% | +$775 | -$14,014 | 103.8% | $-15,222 (vs do-nothing $-12,040) |
| $152.50 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 3/5 | $3,986 | $4,127 | 62% | 72% | +$1,011 | -$10,104 | 74.8% | $-12,101 (vs do-nothing $-8,919) |
| $152.50 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $4,114 | $4,185 | 59% | 71% | +$904 | -$12,791 | 94.8% | $-14,394 (vs do-nothing $-11,212) |
| $152.50 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $3,486 | $3,556 | 58% | 71% | +$715 | -$12,271 | 90.9% | $-13,874 (vs do-nothing $-10,692) |
| $152.50 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.05 | 5/5 | $3,777 | $3,777 | 58% | 70% | +$681 | -$14,864 | 110.1% | $-16,072 (vs do-nothing $-12,890) |
| $150 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.00 | 4/5 | $3,429 | $3,499 | 53% | 68% | +$476 | -$12,511 | 92.7% | $-14,114 (vs do-nothing $-10,932) |
| $150 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $4,114 | $4,185 | 53% | 68% | +$710 | -$12,831 | 95.0% | $-14,434 (vs do-nothing $-11,252) |
| $150 | 14d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.95 | 3/5 | $3,825 | $3,966 | 52% | 68% | +$721 | -$9,999 | 74.1% | $-11,996 (vs do-nothing $-8,814) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $3,812 | 52% | 68% | +$717 | -$7,016 | 52.0% | $-9,408 (vs do-nothing $-6,226) |
| $149 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.60 | 4/5 | $3,686 | $3,756 | 51% | 67% | +$526 | -$12,671 | 93.9% | $-14,274 (vs do-nothing $-11,092) |
| $149 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.50 | 3/5 | $3,214 | $3,356 | 51% | 67% | +$451 | -$9,834 | 72.8% | $-11,831 (vs do-nothing $-8,649) |
| $148 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.70 | 4/5 | $3,729 | $3,799 | 49% | 66% | +$352 | -$13,031 | 96.5% | $-14,634 (vs do-nothing $-11,452) |
| $148 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.95 | 3/5 | $3,407 | $3,549 | 48% | 66% | +$423 | -$9,999 | 74.1% | $-11,996 (vs do-nothing $-8,814) |
| $149 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 2/5 | $4,029 | $4,241 | 48% | 66% | +$714 | -$7,116 | 52.7% | $-9,508 (vs do-nothing $-6,326) |
| $147 | 28d | 2 Oct 2026 | $9.20 | 4/5 | $3,943 | $4,014 | 47% | 66% | +$339 | -$13,231 | 98.0% | $-14,834 (vs do-nothing $-11,652) |
| $147 | 21d | 25 Sep 2026 | $8.40 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $3,741 | 46% | 65% | +$383 | -$10,164 | 75.3% | $-12,161 (vs do-nothing $-8,979) |
| $148 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.25 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $4,712 | 44% | 65% | +$712 | -$7,206 | 53.4% | $-9,598 (vs do-nothing $-6,416) |
| $147 | 7d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.85 | 2/5 | $5,014 | $5,226 | 40% | 63% | +$711 | -$7,286 | 54.0% | $-9,678 (vs do-nothing $-6,496) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.