5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $189.05 (banked floor $182.77) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,193/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,230/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,062 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $160C 11 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $1.00 | $502 | 2026-09-08 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 7d | 4 × $155 | 75% | $3,291 | $1,028 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $165 | 18 Sep | 7d | 11.3% | 94%hist 96% | 12%hist 13% | +4pp | $255 | $1,093 | -$2,199 | $11,771 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $165 11.3% OTM over spot $148.22 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $255 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,093/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $165.52) 95% EV / mo +$811 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $831/mo median; plan ~$565/mo after 68% keep · $5,457 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,504 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $2.89–$5.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 254 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $168 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $24 below CC-SS $189.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $165.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,681 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$11,771 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,152 (+$7,910 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,840, the opportunity cost of earning $1,093/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $160 | 18 Sep | 7d | 7.9% | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 26% | +8pp | $495 | $2,121 | -$1,170 | $14,031 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 7.9% OTM over spot $148.22 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.00 mid) = $495 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,121/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $161.00) 89% EV / mo +$1,202 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,344/mo median; plan ~$914/mo after 68% keep · $8,294 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,211 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.41 mid-life (likely $3.19–$5.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 508 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $163 (overshoots $2.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $29 below CC-SS $189.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $161.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,681 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$14,031 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,412 (+$5,650 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,100, the opportunity cost of earning $2,121/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $155 | 18 Sep | 7d | 4.6% | 75%hist 83% | 51%hist 44% | +10pp | $768 | $3,291 | — | $12,853 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $155 4.6% OTM over spot $148.22 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.93 mid) = $768 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,291/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $156.93) 80% EV / mo +$1,274 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,580/mo median; plan ~$1,074/mo after 68% keep · $8,808 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.6], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$554 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $179 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.67/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.66–$5.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,176 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $157 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $34 below CC-SS $189.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.92 collected) or spot ≥ $156.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,681 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $155): -$12,853 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$386 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,620 (+$6,442 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,308, the opportunity cost of earning $3,291/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $150 | 18 Sep | 7d | 1.2% | 58%hist 70% | 86%hist 79% | +16pp | $1,750 | $7,500 | +$4,209 | $17,776 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $150 1.2% OTM over spot $148.22 18 Sep 2026 (7d, $3.55 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $153.55) 71% EV / mo +$1,678 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,423/mo median; plan ~$1,648/mo after 68% keep · $10,170 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$150 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.52/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $4.28–$6.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,054 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $153 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $39 below CC-SS $189.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $153.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,062 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,681 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$17,776 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,157 (+$1,905 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,312 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,845, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.964 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,681 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,312
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.92 | 4/5 | $3,291 | $3,332 | 75% | 80% | +$1,274 | -$12,853 | 95.2% | $-14,620 (vs do-nothing $-11,308) |
| $155 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $3,536 | $3,536 | 69% | 76% | +$915 | -$15,376 | 113.9% | $-16,757 (vs do-nothing $-13,445) |
| $152.50 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.62 | 3/5 | $3,369 | $3,450 | 67% | 75% | +$1,020 | -$10,179 | 75.4% | $-12,333 (vs do-nothing $-9,021) |
| $155 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.50 | 5/5 | $3,214 | $3,214 | 67% | 75% | +$795 | -$14,776 | 109.4% | $-16,157 (vs do-nothing $-12,845) |
| $152.50 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.10 | 4/5 | $3,514 | $3,555 | 63% | 73% | +$782 | -$12,981 | 96.2% | $-14,748 (vs do-nothing $-11,436) |
| $152.50 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.40 | 5/5 | $3,857 | $3,857 | 62% | 72% | +$828 | -$15,576 | 115.4% | $-16,957 (vs do-nothing $-13,645) |
| $152.50 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.50 | 5/5 | $3,482 | $3,482 | 61% | 72% | +$727 | -$15,026 | 111.3% | $-16,407 (vs do-nothing $-13,095) |
| $150 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.50 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $4,581 | 58% | 71% | +$1,007 | -$10,665 | 79.0% | $-12,819 (vs do-nothing $-9,507) |
| $150 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $3,279 | $3,360 | 57% | 69% | +$573 | -$10,185 | 75.4% | $-12,339 (vs do-nothing $-9,027) |
| $150 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.45 | 4/5 | $3,686 | $3,726 | 56% | 70% | +$682 | -$13,041 | 96.6% | $-14,808 (vs do-nothing $-11,496) |
| $150 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.55 | 4/5 | $3,236 | $3,276 | 56% | 70% | +$586 | -$12,601 | 93.3% | $-14,368 (vs do-nothing $-11,056) |
| $149 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.90 | 4/5 | $3,386 | $3,426 | 54% | 69% | +$540 | -$12,861 | 95.3% | $-14,628 (vs do-nothing $-11,316) |
| $149 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.85 | 4/5 | $3,914 | $3,955 | 54% | 68% | +$651 | -$13,281 | 98.4% | $-15,048 (vs do-nothing $-11,736) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $3,681 | 54% | 68% | +$608 | -$10,335 | 76.6% | $-12,489 (vs do-nothing $-9,177) |
| $148 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.45 | 4/5 | $3,621 | $3,662 | 52% | 68% | +$570 | -$13,041 | 96.6% | $-14,808 (vs do-nothing $-11,496) |
| $148 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $3,129 | $3,210 | 52% | 67% | +$475 | -$10,125 | 75.0% | $-12,279 (vs do-nothing $-8,967) |
| $148 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 3/5 | $3,857 | $3,939 | 51% | 67% | +$556 | -$10,515 | 77.9% | $-12,669 (vs do-nothing $-9,357) |
| $147 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.90 | 4/5 | $3,814 | $3,855 | 50% | 67% | +$547 | -$13,261 | 98.2% | $-15,028 (vs do-nothing $-11,716) |
| $147 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.80 | 3/5 | $3,343 | $3,424 | 50% | 66% | +$470 | -$10,275 | 76.1% | $-12,429 (vs do-nothing $-9,117) |
| $147 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $4,179 | $4,260 | 49% | 66% | +$548 | -$10,665 | 79.0% | $-12,819 (vs do-nothing $-9,507) |
| $146 | 28d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.40 | 4/5 | $4,029 | $4,069 | 48% | 66% | +$535 | -$13,461 | 99.7% | $-15,228 (vs do-nothing $-11,916) |
| $146 | 21d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 3/5 | $3,557 | $3,639 | 47% | 65% | +$454 | -$10,425 | 77.2% | $-12,579 (vs do-nothing $-9,267) |
| $146 | 14d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.00 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $4,581 | 46% | 65% | +$518 | -$10,815 | 80.1% | $-12,969 (vs do-nothing $-9,657) |
| $146 | 7d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.45 | 2/5 | $4,671 | $4,794 | 43% | 64% | +$634 | -$7,520 | 55.7% | $-10,060 (vs do-nothing $-6,748) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.