5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $189.81 (banked floor $182.62) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,364/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,238/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 5 × $157.50 | 85% | $3,975 | $2,588 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 5 × $155 | 68% | $4,295 | $64 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $162.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 9.1% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 14% | +5pp | $255 | $1,912 | -$2,062 | $13,402 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $162.50 9.1% OTM over spot $148.96 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.52 mid) = $255 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,912/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $163.01) 91% EV / mo +$930 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,283/mo median; plan ~$873/mo after 68% keep · $4,531 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,141 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $179 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $2.55–$4.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 335 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $166 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $27 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $163.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $162.50): -$13,402 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,652 (+$6,473 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,085, the opportunity cost of earning $1,912/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $160 | 18 Sep | 4d | 7.4% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 26% | +6pp | $375 | $2,812 | -$1,162 | $14,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 7.4% OTM over spot $148.96 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.76 mid) = $375 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $160.76) 88% EV / mo +$1,166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,690/mo median; plan ~$1,149/mo after 68% keep · $7,292 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$999 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $179 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.89/sh now → $2.75 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 500 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $163 (overshoots $3.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $30 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $160.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$14,532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,782 (+$5,343 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,215, the opportunity cost of earning $2,812/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $157.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.7% | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | +17pp | $530 | $3,975 | — | $15,627 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 5.7% OTM over spot $148.96 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.07 mid) = $530 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $158.57) 88% EV / mo +$2,379 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,379/mo median; plan ~$1,618/mo after 68% keep · $8,787 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$823 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $179 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.83/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $2.87–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 739 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $160 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $32 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $158.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$15,627 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,877 (+$4,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,310, the opportunity cost of earning $3,975/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $152.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 2.4% | 65%hist 65% | 72%hist 67% | +16pp | $1,110 | $8,325 | +$4,350 | $17,547 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $152.50 2.4% OTM over spot $148.96 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $2.24 mid) = $1,110 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,325/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $154.74) 73% EV / mo +$1,140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,172/mo median; plan ~$2,157/mo after 68% keep · $7,228 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$200 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $179 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.70/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,534 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $156 (overshoots $3.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $37 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.22 collected) or spot ≥ $154.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $152.50): -$17,547 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,797 (+$2,328 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,230, the opportunity cost of earning $8,325/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $170 | 25 Sep | 11d | 14.1% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +2pp | $350 | $955 | -$3,341 | $9,557 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $170 14.1% OTM over spot $148.96 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.71 mid) = $350 credit for the 11d cycle → $955/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $170.72) 92% EV / mo +$434 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $673/mo median; plan ~$458/mo after 68% keep · $3,553 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,897 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $179 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.36/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $3.71–$6.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $173 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $20 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $170.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $170): -$9,557 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,807 (+$10,318 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,240, the opportunity cost of earning $955/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $160 | 25 Sep | 11d | 7.4% | 78%hist 84% | 45%hist 39% | +8pp | $965 | $2,632 | -$1,664 | $13,942 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 7.4% OTM over spot $148.96 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.96 mid) = $965 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,632/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $161.96) 82% EV / mo +$762 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,436/mo median; plan ~$977/mo after 68% keep · $5,076 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,150 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $174 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.98/sh now → $4.23 mid-life (likely $4.45–$6.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,056 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $163 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $30 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.93 collected) or spot ≥ $161.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$13,942 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,192 (+$5,933 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,625, the opportunity cost of earning $2,632/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $155 | 25 Sep | 11d | 4.1% | 68%hist 65% | 67%hist 59% | +13pp | $1,575 | $4,295 | — | $15,832 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 4.1% OTM over spot $148.96 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $3.20 mid) = $1,575 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $158.20) 75% EV / mo +$868 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,820/mo median; plan ~$1,237/mo after 68% keep · $7,642 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$474 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $181 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.79/sh now → $4.10 mid-life (likely $4.91–$6.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,646 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $158 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $35 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.79/sh (~25% of the $3.15 collected) or spot ≥ $158.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$15,832 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,082 (+$4,043 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,515, the opportunity cost of earning $4,295/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $149 | 25 Sep | 11d | 0.0% | 52%hist 70% | 100%hist 90% | +13pp | $2,700 | $7,364 | +$3,068 | $17,707 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $149 0.0% OTM over spot $148.96 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $5.47 mid) = $2,700 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $149) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $154.47) 67% EV / mo +$794 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,455/mo median; plan ~$1,669/mo after 68% keep · $7,890 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 82% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$730 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $175 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.57/sh now → $3.94 mid-life (likely $5.59–$7.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,457 simulated challenges: the $149 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $152 (overshoots $3.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $149 is $41 below CC-SS $189.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.35/sh (~25% of the $5.40 collected) or spot ≥ $154.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $149)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,876 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $149): -$17,707 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,957 (+$2,168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,567 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,390, the opportunity cost of earning $7,364/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.973 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,876 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,567
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.06 | 5/5 | $3,975 | $3,975 | 85% | 88% | +$2,379 | -$15,627 | 115.8% | $-16,877 (vs do-nothing $-13,310) |
| $155 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.55 | 4/5 | $4,650 | $4,699 | 77% | 82% | +$2,233 | -$13,306 | 98.6% | $-15,019 (vs do-nothing $-11,452) |
| $155 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 5/5 | $4,295 | $4,295 | 68% | 75% | +$868 | -$15,832 | 117.3% | $-17,082 (vs do-nothing $-13,515) |
| $152.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.22 | 3/5 | $4,995 | $5,093 | 65% | 73% | +$684 | -$10,528 | 78.0% | $-12,705 (vs do-nothing $-9,138) |
| $152.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.95 | 4/5 | $4,309 | $4,358 | 62% | 71% | +$672 | -$13,346 | 98.9% | $-15,059 (vs do-nothing $-11,492) |
| $152.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.30 | 5/5 | $4,417 | $4,417 | 60% | 71% | +$748 | -$16,007 | 118.6% | $-17,257 (vs do-nothing $-13,690) |
| $152.50 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.40 | 5/5 | $3,840 | $3,840 | 59% | 70% | +$551 | -$15,457 | 114.5% | $-16,707 (vs do-nothing $-13,140) |
| $150 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 2/5 | $4,650 | $4,797 | 56% | 70% | +$1,150 | -$7,343 | 54.4% | $-9,983 (vs do-nothing $-6,416) |
| $150 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.95 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $4,148 | 55% | 68% | +$490 | -$10,459 | 77.5% | $-12,636 (vs do-nothing $-9,069) |
| $150 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.40 | 5/5 | $4,440 | $4,440 | 55% | 68% | +$597 | -$16,207 | 120.1% | $-17,457 (vs do-nothing $-13,890) |
| $150 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.25 | 4/5 | $4,167 | $4,216 | 55% | 68% | +$530 | -$13,426 | 99.5% | $-15,139 (vs do-nothing $-11,572) |
| $149 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.85 | 4/5 | $3,768 | $3,817 | 53% | 67% | +$468 | -$13,186 | 97.7% | $-14,899 (vs do-nothing $-11,332) |
| $149 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.75 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $4,549 | 52% | 67% | +$550 | -$13,626 | 100.9% | $-15,339 (vs do-nothing $-11,772) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $4,418 | $4,516 | 52% | 67% | +$476 | -$10,624 | 78.7% | $-12,801 (vs do-nothing $-9,234) |
| $149 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.55 | 2/5 | $5,325 | $5,472 | 51% | 65% | +$371 | -$7,453 | 55.2% | $-10,093 (vs do-nothing $-6,526) |
| $148 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.35 | 4/5 | $4,008 | $4,057 | 51% | 67% | +$471 | -$13,386 | 99.2% | $-15,099 (vs do-nothing $-11,532) |
| $148 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $4,800 | $4,849 | 50% | 66% | +$517 | -$13,846 | 102.6% | $-15,559 (vs do-nothing $-11,992) |
| $148 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.90 | 3/5 | $4,827 | $4,925 | 49% | 65% | +$475 | -$10,774 | 79.8% | $-12,951 (vs do-nothing $-9,384) |
| $147 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.85 | 4/5 | $4,248 | $4,297 | 49% | 66% | +$462 | -$13,586 | 100.6% | $-15,299 (vs do-nothing $-11,732) |
| $147 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.70 | 3/5 | $3,850 | $3,948 | 48% | 65% | +$374 | -$10,534 | 78.0% | $-12,711 (vs do-nothing $-9,144) |
| $146 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.35 | 4/5 | $4,488 | $4,537 | 47% | 65% | +$441 | -$13,786 | 102.1% | $-15,499 (vs do-nothing $-11,932) |
| $148 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.00 | 2/5 | $6,000 | $6,147 | 46% | 65% | +$1,035 | -$7,563 | 56.0% | $-10,203 (vs do-nothing $-6,636) |
| $147 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.40 | 3/5 | $5,236 | $5,335 | 46% | 64% | +$445 | -$10,924 | 80.9% | $-13,101 (vs do-nothing $-9,534) |
| $146 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.25 | 3/5 | $4,125 | $4,223 | 46% | 64% | +$371 | -$10,669 | 79.0% | $-12,846 (vs do-nothing $-9,279) |
| $146 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.95 | 2/5 | $3,791 | $3,938 | 44% | 63% | +$285 | -$7,373 | 54.6% | $-10,013 (vs do-nothing $-6,446) |
| $147 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $6,825 | $6,972 | 43% | 62% | +$291 | -$7,653 | 56.7% | $-10,293 (vs do-nothing $-6,726) |
| $146 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 1/5 | $3,825 | $4,021 | 37% | 61% | +$441 | -$3,871 | 28.7% | $-6,975 (vs do-nothing $-3,408) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.