5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $189.38 (banked floor $182.24) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,391/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,257/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 4 × $155 | 86% | $2,720 | $2,153 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 5 × $155 | 76% | $3,060 | $506 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $165 | 25 Sep | 10d | 12.7% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | +5pp | $305 | $915 | -$1,805 | $11,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $165 12.7% OTM over spot $146.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.62 mid) = $305 credit for the 10d cycle → $915/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $165.62) 93% EV / mo +$534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $674/mo median; plan ~$459/mo after 68% keep · $4,232 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,740 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $171 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.78/sh now → $4.09 mid-life (likely $3.67–$5.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 329 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $168 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $24 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $165.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$11,885 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,481 (+$8,769 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,735, the opportunity cost of earning $915/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $157.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 7.6% | 91%hist 96% | 18%hist 14% | +8pp | $205 | $2,050 | -$670 | $15,735 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 7.6% OTM over spot $146.44 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.41 mid) = $205 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $157.91) 92% EV / mo +$1,092 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,439/mo median; plan ~$979/mo after 68% keep · $5,504 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,003 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $174 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.42/sh now → $2.42 mid-life (likely $2.37–$4.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 282 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $160 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $32 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $157.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$15,735 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,331 (+$4,919 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,585, the opportunity cost of earning $2,050/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $155 | 18 Sep | 3d | 5.8% | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 26% | +10pp | $272 | $2,720 | — | $13,480 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $155 5.8% OTM over spot $146.44 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.69 mid) = $272 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $155.69) 87% EV / mo +$1,220 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,640/mo median; plan ~$1,115/mo after 68% keep · $8,102 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$679 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $174 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.36/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $2.37–$4.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 550 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $158 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $34 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $155.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $155): -$13,480 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$430 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,506 (+$6,744 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,760, the opportunity cost of earning $2,720/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $152.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 4.1% | 78%hist 84% | 44%hist 39% | +17pp | $555 | $5,550 | +$2,830 | $17,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $152.50 4.1% OTM over spot $146.44 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.12 mid) = $555 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $153.62) 82% EV / mo +$1,977 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,806/mo median; plan ~$1,908/mo after 68% keep · $10,151 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$615 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $174 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.31/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $2.62–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 859 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $155 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $37 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $153.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $152.50): -$17,885 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,481 (+$2,769 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,735, the opportunity cost of earning $5,550/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $165 | 25 Sep | 10d | 12.7% | 92%hist 96% | 16%hist 14% | +5pp | $305 | $915 | -$2,145 | $11,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $165 12.7% OTM over spot $146.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.62 mid) = $305 credit for the 10d cycle → $915/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $165.62) 93% EV / mo +$534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $674/mo median; plan ~$459/mo after 68% keep · $4,232 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,740 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $171 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.78/sh now → $4.09 mid-life (likely $3.67–$5.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 329 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $168 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $24 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $165.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$11,885 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,481 (+$8,769 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,735, the opportunity cost of earning $915/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $157.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 7.6% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +7pp | $608 | $1,824 | -$1,236 | $12,144 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $157.50 7.6% OTM over spot $146.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.54 mid) = $608 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,824/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $159.04) 84% EV / mo +$680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,064/mo median; plan ~$724/mo after 68% keep · $5,946 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.4-4.3], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$953 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $169 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.52/sh now → $3.90 mid-life (likely $4.06–$6.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 872 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $160 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $32 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.52 collected) or spot ≥ $159.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $157.50): -$12,144 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$430 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,170 (+$8,080 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,424, the opportunity cost of earning $1,824/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $155 | 25 Sep | 10d | 5.8% | 76%hist 84% | 50%hist 39% | +11pp | $1,020 | $3,060 | — | $16,170 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 5.8% OTM over spot $146.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.06 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $157.06) 80% EV / mo +$955 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,548/mo median; plan ~$1,053/mo after 68% keep · $7,334 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.5], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$901 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $171 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.43/sh now → $3.84 mid-life (likely $4.22–$6.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,181 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $157 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $34 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.04 collected) or spot ≥ $157.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$16,170 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,766 (+$4,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,020, the opportunity cost of earning $3,060/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $149 | 25 Sep | 10d | 1.7% | 60%hist 70% | 83%hist 79% | +14pp | $1,950 | $5,850 | +$2,790 | $18,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $149 1.7% OTM over spot $146.44 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $3.95 mid) = $1,950 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $149) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $152.95) 71% EV / mo +$1,108 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,106/mo median; plan ~$1,432/mo after 68% keep · $8,693 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$104 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $173 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.22/sh now → $3.69 mid-life (likely $4.93–$6.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,057 simulated challenges: the $149 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $152 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $149 is $40 below CC-SS $189.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $152.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $149)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,654 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $149): -$18,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,836 (+$2,414 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,746 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,090, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.962 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,654 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,746
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.68 | 4/5 | $2,720 | $2,744 | 86% | 87% | +$1,220 | -$13,480 | 99.9% | $-15,506 (vs do-nothing $-11,760) |
| $152.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.11 | 3/5 | $3,330 | $3,378 | 78% | 82% | +$1,186 | -$10,731 | 79.5% | $-13,187 (vs do-nothing $-9,441) |
| $155 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.04 | 5/5 | $3,060 | $3,060 | 76% | 80% | +$955 | -$16,170 | 119.8% | $-17,766 (vs do-nothing $-14,020) |
| $155 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.15 | 5/5 | $2,779 | $2,779 | 72% | 78% | +$748 | -$15,615 | 115.7% | $-17,211 (vs do-nothing $-13,465) |
| $152.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.70 | 4/5 | $3,240 | $3,264 | 70% | 76% | +$842 | -$13,672 | 101.3% | $-15,698 (vs do-nothing $-11,952) |
| $150 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.75 | 2/5 | $3,500 | $3,572 | 68% | 75% | +$891 | -$7,526 | 55.7% | $-10,412 (vs do-nothing $-6,666) |
| $152.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.90 | 4/5 | $2,753 | $2,777 | 67% | 75% | +$631 | -$13,192 | 97.7% | $-15,218 (vs do-nothing $-11,472) |
| $152.50 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.95 | 5/5 | $3,094 | $3,094 | 64% | 73% | +$471 | -$15,965 | 118.3% | $-17,561 (vs do-nothing $-13,815) |
| $149 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.09 | 2/5 | $4,180 | $4,252 | 64% | 73% | +$945 | -$7,658 | 56.7% | $-10,544 (vs do-nothing $-6,798) |
| $150 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.50 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $3,198 | 63% | 72% | +$625 | -$10,764 | 79.7% | $-13,220 (vs do-nothing $-9,474) |
| $150 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $3,388 | $3,412 | 61% | 71% | +$654 | -$13,832 | 102.5% | $-15,858 (vs do-nothing $-12,112) |
| $150 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.90 | 4/5 | $2,950 | $2,974 | 60% | 70% | +$393 | -$13,392 | 99.2% | $-15,418 (vs do-nothing $-11,672) |
| $149 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 3/5 | $3,510 | $3,558 | 60% | 71% | +$665 | -$10,944 | 81.1% | $-13,400 (vs do-nothing $-9,654) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $148 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.46 | 2/5 | $4,920 | $4,992 | 59% | 70% | +$958 | -$7,784 | 57.7% | $-10,670 (vs do-nothing $-6,924) |
| $149 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.20 | 3/5 | $2,753 | $2,801 | 58% | 70% | +$386 | -$10,554 | 78.2% | $-13,010 (vs do-nothing $-9,264) |
| $149 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.30 | 4/5 | $3,150 | $3,174 | 58% | 69% | +$390 | -$13,632 | 101.0% | $-15,658 (vs do-nothing $-11,912) |
| $148 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.30 | 3/5 | $3,870 | $3,918 | 57% | 69% | +$638 | -$11,124 | 82.4% | $-13,580 (vs do-nothing $-9,834) |
| $148 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.65 | 3/5 | $2,991 | $3,039 | 56% | 69% | +$400 | -$10,719 | 79.4% | $-13,175 (vs do-nothing $-9,429) |
| $148 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.75 | 4/5 | $3,375 | $3,399 | 56% | 68% | +$400 | -$13,852 | 102.6% | $-15,878 (vs do-nothing $-12,132) |
| $147 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.89 | 1/5 | $2,890 | $2,986 | 54% | 68% | +$485 | -$3,949 | 29.3% | $-7,265 (vs do-nothing $-3,519) |
| $147 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.15 | 4/5 | $3,575 | $3,599 | 54% | 68% | +$543 | -$14,092 | 104.4% | $-16,118 (vs do-nothing $-12,372) |
| $147 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $3,229 | $3,277 | 54% | 68% | +$400 | -$10,884 | 80.6% | $-13,340 (vs do-nothing $-9,594) |
| $147 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.75 | 2/5 | $2,850 | $2,922 | 53% | 68% | +$433 | -$7,526 | 55.7% | $-10,412 (vs do-nothing $-6,666) |
| $146 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.65 | 3/5 | $2,869 | $2,917 | 52% | 67% | +$290 | -$10,719 | 79.4% | $-13,175 (vs do-nothing $-9,429) |
| $146 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.55 | 3/5 | $3,468 | $3,516 | 51% | 66% | +$384 | -$11,049 | 81.8% | $-13,505 (vs do-nothing $-9,759) |
| $146 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.20 | 2/5 | $3,120 | $3,192 | 50% | 66% | +$408 | -$7,636 | 56.6% | $-10,522 (vs do-nothing $-6,776) |
| $145 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.15 | 3/5 | $3,056 | $3,104 | 49% | 66% | +$408 | -$10,869 | 80.5% | $-13,325 (vs do-nothing $-9,579) |
| $146 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 1/5 | $3,350 | $3,446 | 49% | 65% | +$456 | -$4,003 | 29.7% | $-7,319 (vs do-nothing $-3,573) |
| $145 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.05 | 3/5 | $3,732 | $3,780 | 49% | 65% | +$380 | -$11,199 | 83.0% | $-13,655 (vs do-nothing $-9,909) |
| $144 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.70 | 3/5 | $3,262 | $3,310 | 47% | 65% | +$412 | -$11,004 | 81.5% | $-13,460 (vs do-nothing $-9,714) |
| $145 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.75 | 2/5 | $3,450 | $3,522 | 47% | 65% | +$426 | -$7,726 | 57.2% | $-10,612 (vs do-nothing $-6,866) |
| $144 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.60 | 3/5 | $4,024 | $4,072 | 46% | 64% | +$387 | -$11,334 | 84.0% | $-13,790 (vs do-nothing $-10,044) |
| $144 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.30 | 2/5 | $3,780 | $3,852 | 44% | 64% | +$421 | -$7,816 | 57.9% | $-10,702 (vs do-nothing $-6,956) |
| $145 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.85 | 1/5 | $3,850 | $3,946 | 44% | 63% | +$406 | -$4,053 | 30.0% | $-7,369 (vs do-nothing $-3,623) |
| $144 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.45 | 1/5 | $4,450 | $4,546 | 39% | 61% | +$391 | -$4,093 | 30.3% | $-7,409 (vs do-nothing $-3,663) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.