5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $190.06 (banked floor $182.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,516/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,182/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 4 × $157.50 | 88% | $4,200 | $3,685 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 5 × $157.50 | 76% | $3,983 | $1,162 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $160 | 18 Sep | 2d | 7.8% | 97%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +4pp | $164 | $2,460 | -$1,740 | $11,859 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $160 7.8% OTM over spot $148.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $164 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $160.42) 98% EV / mo +$2,332 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $763/mo median; plan ~$519/mo after 68% keep · $4,373 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.4], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$940 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $2.84–$5.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $163 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $30 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $160.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $160): -$11,859 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,668 (+$8,057 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,972, the opportunity cost of earning $2,460/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $160 | 18 Sep | 2d | 7.8% | 97%hist 96% | 5%hist 3% | +5pp | $205 | $3,075 | -$1,125 | $14,824 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $160 7.8% OTM over spot $148.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $205 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $160.42) 98% EV / mo +$2,915 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $859/mo median; plan ~$584/mo after 68% keep · $4,939 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.8], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,175 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $2.75–$5.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 196 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $163 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $30 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $160.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $160): -$14,824 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,161 (+$5,564 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,465, the opportunity cost of earning $3,075/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $157.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 6.1% | 88%hist 86% | 23%hist 26% | +14pp | $280 | $4,200 | — | $12,743 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $157.50 6.1% OTM over spot $148.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.71 mid) = $280 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $158.21) 90% EV / mo +$2,680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,891/mo median; plan ~$1,966/mo after 68% keep · $8,531 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$807 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.84/sh now → $2.72 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 368 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $160 (overshoots $2.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $33 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $158.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $157.50): -$12,743 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,552 (+$7,173 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,856, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $155 | 18 Sep | 2d | 4.4% | 81%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | +19pp | $460 | $6,900 | +$2,700 | $13,563 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $155 4.4% OTM over spot $148.45 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $1.17 mid) = $460 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $156.16) 85% EV / mo +$3,777 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,890/mo median; plan ~$2,645/mo after 68% keep · $10,553 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$609 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.78/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $3.13–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 660 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $158 (overshoots $3.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $35 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $156.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $155): -$13,563 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $185): -$472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,372 (+$6,353 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,676, the opportunity cost of earning $6,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $167.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 12.8% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +6pp | $390 | $1,300 | -$2,683 | $10,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $167.50 12.8% OTM over spot $148.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.80 mid) = $390 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $168.29) 92% EV / mo +$776 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $925/mo median; plan ~$629/mo after 68% keep · $5,115 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,939 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.59/sh now → $4.66 mid-life (likely $4.00–$6.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $170 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $23 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $168.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $167.50): -$10,889 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,226 (+$9,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,530, the opportunity cost of earning $1,300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $162.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 9.5% | 85%hist 86% | 30%hist 26% | +8pp | $690 | $2,300 | -$1,683 | $13,089 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $162.50 9.5% OTM over spot $148.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.40 mid) = $690 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $163.90) 88% EV / mo +$1,178 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,457/mo median; plan ~$991/mo after 68% keep · $6,361 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,569 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $174 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.39/sh now → $4.52 mid-life (likely $4.20–$6.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 564 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $165 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $28 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.38 collected) or spot ≥ $163.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $162.50): -$13,089 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,426 (+$7,299 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,730, the opportunity cost of earning $2,300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $157.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 6.1% | 76%hist 84% | 49%hist 39% | +9pp | $1,195 | $3,983 | — | $15,084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 6.1% OTM over spot $148.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.41 mid) = $1,195 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,983/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $159.91) 81% EV / mo +$1,657 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,992/mo median; plan ~$1,354/mo after 68% keep · $7,366 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$995 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $174 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.19/sh now → $4.38 mid-life (likely $4.75–$6.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,017 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $160 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $33 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.39 collected) or spot ≥ $159.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$15,084 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,421 (+$5,304 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,725, the opportunity cost of earning $3,983/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $152.50 | 25 Sep | 9d | 2.7% | 64%hist 65% | 75%hist 67% | +16pp | $1,975 | $6,583 | +$2,600 | $16,804 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $152.50 2.7% OTM over spot $148.45 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $4.00 mid) = $1,975 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $152.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $156.50) 74% EV / mo +$2,054 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,619/mo median; plan ~$1,781/mo after 68% keep · $9,845 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$145 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $177 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.00/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $5.31–$7.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,789 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $155 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $152.50 is $38 below CC-SS $190.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.99/sh (~25% of the $3.95 collected) or spot ≥ $156.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $190.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,388 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $152.50): -$16,804 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,141 (+$3,584 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,696 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,445, the opportunity cost of earning $6,583/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.980 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,388 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,696
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.70 | 4/5 | $4,200 | $4,264 | 88% | 90% | +$2,680 | -$12,743 | 94.4% | $-14,552 (vs do-nothing $-10,856) |
| $155 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.15 | 2/5 | $3,450 | $3,641 | 81% | 85% | +$1,889 | -$6,782 | 50.2% | $-9,534 (vs do-nothing $-5,838) |
| $157.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.39 | 5/5 | $3,983 | $3,983 | 76% | 81% | +$1,657 | -$15,084 | 111.7% | $-16,421 (vs do-nothing $-12,725) |
| $157.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $3,375 | $3,375 | 72% | 79% | +$1,201 | -$14,479 | 107.3% | $-15,816 (vs do-nothing $-12,120) |
| $152.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 2/5 | $5,550 | $5,741 | 72% | 79% | +$2,564 | -$7,142 | 52.9% | $-9,894 (vs do-nothing $-6,198) |
| $155 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.10 | 4/5 | $4,133 | $4,197 | 70% | 78% | +$1,513 | -$12,783 | 94.7% | $-14,592 (vs do-nothing $-10,896) |
| $155 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.40 | 4/5 | $3,300 | $3,364 | 67% | 76% | +$1,052 | -$12,263 | 90.8% | $-14,072 (vs do-nothing $-10,376) |
| $155 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.50 | 5/5 | $3,587 | $3,587 | 65% | 75% | +$1,050 | -$14,779 | 109.5% | $-16,116 (vs do-nothing $-12,420) |
| $152.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.95 | 3/5 | $3,950 | $4,078 | 64% | 74% | +$1,233 | -$10,082 | 74.7% | $-12,363 (vs do-nothing $-8,667) |
| $152.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 4/5 | $4,012 | $4,076 | 62% | 73% | +$1,139 | -$12,883 | 95.4% | $-14,692 (vs do-nothing $-10,996) |
| $152.50 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.50 | 4/5 | $3,391 | $3,455 | 61% | 72% | +$902 | -$12,423 | 92.0% | $-14,232 (vs do-nothing $-10,536) |
| $150 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.84 | 1/5 | $4,260 | $4,515 | 59% | 73% | +$1,527 | -$3,722 | 27.6% | $-6,946 (vs do-nothing $-3,250) |
| $150 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.95 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $3,491 | 57% | 71% | +$991 | -$7,022 | 52.0% | $-9,774 (vs do-nothing $-6,078) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.45 | 3/5 | $3,628 | $3,756 | 56% | 70% | +$905 | -$10,082 | 74.7% | $-12,363 (vs do-nothing $-8,667) |
| $150 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.55 | 4/5 | $3,939 | $4,003 | 56% | 70% | +$912 | -$13,003 | 96.3% | $-14,812 (vs do-nothing $-11,116) |
| $149 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 1/5 | $4,950 | $5,205 | 54% | 71% | +$1,612 | -$3,776 | 28.0% | $-7,000 (vs do-nothing $-3,304) |
| $149 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.05 | 4/5 | $4,200 | $4,264 | 54% | 69% | +$936 | -$13,203 | 97.8% | $-15,012 (vs do-nothing $-11,316) |
| $149 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 3/5 | $3,881 | $4,009 | 54% | 69% | +$902 | -$10,247 | 75.9% | $-12,528 (vs do-nothing $-8,832) |
| $149 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.50 | 2/5 | $3,667 | $3,858 | 53% | 70% | +$1,060 | -$7,112 | 52.7% | $-9,864 (vs do-nothing $-6,168) |
| $148 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.55 | 3/5 | $3,346 | $3,473 | 52% | 68% | +$709 | -$10,052 | 74.5% | $-12,333 (vs do-nothing $-8,637) |
| $148 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.40 | 3/5 | $4,162 | $4,290 | 51% | 68% | +$911 | -$10,397 | 77.0% | $-12,678 (vs do-nothing $-8,982) |
| $148 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.95 | 2/5 | $3,967 | $4,158 | 50% | 69% | +$1,037 | -$7,222 | 53.5% | $-9,974 (vs do-nothing $-6,278) |
| $147 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.05 | 3/5 | $3,541 | $3,669 | 50% | 68% | +$707 | -$10,202 | 75.6% | $-12,483 (vs do-nothing $-8,787) |
| $147 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.00 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $4,628 | 49% | 67% | +$958 | -$10,517 | 77.9% | $-12,798 (vs do-nothing $-9,102) |
| $148 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.85 | 1/5 | $5,775 | $6,030 | 49% | 69% | +$1,698 | -$3,821 | 28.3% | $-7,045 (vs do-nothing $-3,349) |
| $146 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.65 | 3/5 | $3,776 | $3,904 | 47% | 67% | +$733 | -$10,322 | 76.5% | $-12,603 (vs do-nothing $-8,907) |
| $147 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.50 | 2/5 | $4,333 | $4,525 | 47% | 67% | +$1,055 | -$7,312 | 54.2% | $-10,064 (vs do-nothing $-6,368) |
| $146 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.50 | 3/5 | $4,781 | $4,909 | 46% | 66% | +$932 | -$10,667 | 79.0% | $-12,948 (vs do-nothing $-9,252) |
| $146 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.05 | 2/5 | $4,700 | $4,891 | 44% | 66% | +$1,048 | -$7,402 | 54.8% | $-10,154 (vs do-nothing $-6,458) |
| $147 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.45 | 1/5 | $6,675 | $6,930 | 43% | 67% | +$1,748 | -$3,861 | 28.6% | $-7,085 (vs do-nothing $-3,389) |
| $146 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 1/5 | $7,650 | $7,905 | 38% | 65% | +$1,804 | -$3,896 | 28.9% | $-7,120 (vs do-nothing $-3,424) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.