5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $188.98 (banked floor $181.95) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,990/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,236/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $1.40 | $700 | 2026-09-17 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 8d | 5 × $155 | 78% | $3,206 | $896 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $162.50 | 2 Oct | 8d | 10.5% | 93%hist 96% | 15%hist 13% | +3pp | $310 | $1,163 | -$2,044 | $12,931 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $162.50 10.5% OTM over spot $147.01 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid) = $310 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,163/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $163.13) 93% EV / mo +$807 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $845/mo median; plan ~$575/mo after 68% keep · $5,580 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.1], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,505 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $170 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $3.02–$5.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $165 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $26 below CC-SS $188.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $163.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $162.50): -$12,931 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,507 (+$7,593 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,020, the opportunity cost of earning $1,163/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $157.50 | 2 Oct | 8d | 7.1% | 84%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | +10pp | $615 | $2,306 | -$900 | $15,126 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 7.1% OTM over spot $147.01 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.25 mid) = $615 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,306/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $158.75) 87% EV / mo +$1,214 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,386/mo median; plan ~$943/mo after 68% keep · $8,846 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.4-5.2], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,145 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $168 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.43–$5.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 755 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $160 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $31 below CC-SS $188.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.23 collected) or spot ≥ $158.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$15,126 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,702 (+$5,398 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,215, the opportunity cost of earning $2,306/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $155 | 2 Oct | 8d | 5.4% | 78%hist 84% | 44%hist 39% | +15pp | $855 | $3,206 | — | $16,136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 5.4% OTM over spot $147.01 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.73 mid) = $855 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,206/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $156.73) 83% EV / mo +$1,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,625/mo median; plan ~$1,105/mo after 68% keep · $7,817 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$877 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $168 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $3.69–$5.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,066 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $157 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $34 below CC-SS $188.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.71 collected) or spot ≥ $156.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$16,136 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,712 (+$4,388 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,225, the opportunity cost of earning $3,206/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $150 | 2 Oct | 8d | 2.0% | 62%hist 65% | 77%hist 68% | +16pp | $1,600 | $6,000 | +$2,794 | $17,891 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $150 2.0% OTM over spot $147.01 2 Oct 2026 (8d, $3.25 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $153.25) 73% EV / mo +$1,719 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,217/mo median; plan ~$1,507/mo after 68% keep · $9,774 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$76 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 16 Oct 2026) $170 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.74/sh now → $3.35 mid-life (likely $4.35–$6.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,861 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $152 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $39 below CC-SS $188.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.80/sh (~25% of the $3.20 collected) or spot ≥ $153.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $188.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$17,891 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,467 (+$2,633 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,487 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,980, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.978 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,525 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,487
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.71 | 5/5 | $3,206 | $3,206 | 78% | 83% | +$1,409 | -$16,136 | 119.5% | $-17,712 (vs do-nothing $-14,225) |
| $152.50 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.37 | 4/5 | $3,555 | $3,587 | 71% | 78% | +$1,289 | -$13,645 | 101.1% | $-15,603 (vs do-nothing $-12,116) |
| $152.50 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.70 | 5/5 | $3,700 | $3,700 | 66% | 75% | +$1,015 | -$16,391 | 121.4% | $-17,967 (vs do-nothing $-14,480) |
| $152.50 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.85 | 5/5 | $3,307 | $3,307 | 64% | 74% | +$848 | -$15,816 | 117.2% | $-17,392 (vs do-nothing $-13,905) |
| $150 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.20 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $3,664 | 62% | 73% | +$1,031 | -$10,735 | 79.5% | $-13,075 (vs do-nothing $-9,588) |
| $150 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.65 | 4/5 | $3,720 | $3,752 | 60% | 72% | +$878 | -$13,733 | 101.7% | $-15,691 (vs do-nothing $-12,204) |
| $150 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.85 | 4/5 | $3,191 | $3,223 | 59% | 71% | +$717 | -$13,253 | 98.2% | $-15,211 (vs do-nothing $-11,724) |
| $149 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.60 | 3/5 | $4,050 | $4,114 | 59% | 71% | +$1,055 | -$10,915 | 80.8% | $-13,255 (vs do-nothing $-9,768) |
| $149 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.05 | 3/5 | $3,030 | $3,094 | 57% | 70% | +$657 | -$10,480 | 77.6% | $-12,820 (vs do-nothing $-9,333) |
| $149 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $6.25 | 4/5 | $3,409 | $3,441 | 57% | 70% | +$719 | -$13,493 | 99.9% | $-15,451 (vs do-nothing $-11,964) |
| $148 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.05 | 2/5 | $3,038 | $3,134 | 55% | 69% | +$659 | -$7,386 | 54.7% | $-10,109 (vs do-nothing $-6,622) |
| $148 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.50 | 3/5 | $3,300 | $3,364 | 55% | 69% | +$665 | -$10,645 | 78.8% | $-12,985 (vs do-nothing $-9,498) |
| $148 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $6.70 | 4/5 | $3,655 | $3,687 | 55% | 69% | +$722 | -$13,713 | 101.6% | $-15,671 (vs do-nothing $-12,184) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $3,927 | $3,959 | 52% | 68% | +$719 | -$13,913 | 103.1% | $-15,871 (vs do-nothing $-12,384) |
| $147 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.00 | 3/5 | $3,600 | $3,664 | 52% | 68% | +$683 | -$10,795 | 80.0% | $-13,135 (vs do-nothing $-9,648) |
| $147 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.50 | 2/5 | $3,375 | $3,471 | 51% | 68% | +$644 | -$7,496 | 55.5% | $-10,219 (vs do-nothing $-6,732) |
| $146 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $7.70 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $3,214 | 50% | 67% | +$550 | -$10,585 | 78.4% | $-12,925 (vs do-nothing $-9,438) |
| $146 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $3,900 | $3,964 | 49% | 67% | +$680 | -$10,945 | 81.1% | $-13,285 (vs do-nothing $-9,798) |
| $146 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.05 | 2/5 | $3,788 | $3,884 | 48% | 66% | +$670 | -$7,586 | 56.2% | $-10,309 (vs do-nothing $-6,822) |
| $145 | 22d | 16 Oct 2026 | $8.25 | 3/5 | $3,375 | $3,439 | 48% | 66% | +$560 | -$10,720 | 79.4% | $-13,060 (vs do-nothing $-9,573) |
| $145 | 15d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.00 | 3/5 | $4,200 | $4,264 | 46% | 65% | +$656 | -$11,095 | 82.2% | $-13,435 (vs do-nothing $-9,948) |
| $145 | 8d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $4,296 | 44% | 65% | +$660 | -$7,676 | 56.9% | $-10,399 (vs do-nothing $-6,912) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.