5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $186.00 | CC-SS: $189.80 (banked floor $182.83) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $43,500 | (ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,679/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,179/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,275 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $165C 25 Sep 2026 | U13190865 | $1.40 | $700 | 2026-09-17 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 2 Oct 2026 · 7d | 5 × $155 | 77% | $3,129 | $1,131 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $162.50 | 2 Oct | 7d | 9.8% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | +7pp | $240 | $1,029 | -$2,100 | $13,410 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $162.50 9.8% OTM over spot $147.93 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid) = $240 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,029/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $162.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $162.99) 92% EV / mo +$558 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $732/mo median; plan ~$498/mo after 68% keep · $4,825 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-5.0], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,308 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $175 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.38/sh now → $3.10 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 280 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $165 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $162.50 is $27 below CC-SS $189.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $162.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $162)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,684 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $162.50): -$13,410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,001 (+$7,274 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,921 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,080, the opportunity cost of earning $1,029/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $157.50 | 2 Oct | 7d | 6.5% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +12pp | $505 | $2,164 | -$964 | $15,645 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 6.5% OTM over spot $147.93 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid) = $505 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,164/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $158.52) 86% EV / mo +$952 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,262/mo median; plan ~$858/mo after 68% keep · $7,884 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$996 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $172 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.24/sh now → $3.00 mid-life (likely $2.86–$4.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 682 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $160 (overshoots $2.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $32 below CC-SS $189.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $158.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,684 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$15,645 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,236 (+$5,039 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,921 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,315, the opportunity cost of earning $2,164/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $155 | 2 Oct | 7d | 4.8% | 77%hist 84% | 46%hist 39% | +12pp | $730 | $3,129 | — | $16,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 4.8% OTM over spot $147.93 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $1.47 mid) = $730 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,129/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $156.47) 82% EV / mo +$1,166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,558/mo median; plan ~$1,059/mo after 68% keep · $9,707 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.9], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$747 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $175 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.18/sh now → $2.95 mid-life (likely $3.10–$4.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,024 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $157 (overshoots $2.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $35 below CC-SS $189.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.46 collected) or spot ≥ $156.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,684 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$16,670 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,261 (+$4,014 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,921 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,340, the opportunity cost of earning $3,129/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $150 | 2 Oct | 7d | 1.4% | 60%hist 68% | 82%hist 78% | +19pp | $1,490 | $6,386 | +$3,257 | $18,410 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $150 1.4% OTM over spot $147.93 2 Oct 2026 (7d, $3.01 mid) = $1,490 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,386/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $150) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $153.01) 71% EV / mo +$1,505 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,167/mo median; plan ~$1,474/mo after 68% keep · $10,849 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.7-4.9], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$61 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 23 Oct 2026) $175 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.04/sh now → $2.86 mid-life (likely $3.79–$5.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,963 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $152 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $150 is $40 below CC-SS $189.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.74/sh (~25% of the $2.98 collected) or spot ≥ $153.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $189.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,275 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,684 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $150): -$18,410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,001 (+$2,274 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,921 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,080, the opportunity cost of earning $6,386/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.988 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,684 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,921
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $155 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $1.46 | 5/5 | $3,129 | $3,129 | 77% | 82% | +$1,166 | -$16,670 | 123.5% | $-18,261 (vs do-nothing $-14,340) |
| $155 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $2.73 | 5/5 | $2,925 | $2,925 | 71% | 78% | +$899 | -$16,035 | 118.8% | $-17,626 (vs do-nothing $-13,705) |
| $152.50 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.10 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $3,630 | 69% | 77% | +$1,092 | -$14,080 | 104.3% | $-16,137 (vs do-nothing $-12,216) |
| $152.50 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $3,000 | $3,030 | 65% | 74% | +$778 | -$13,520 | 100.1% | $-15,577 (vs do-nothing $-11,656) |
| $152.50 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $4.60 | 5/5 | $3,286 | $3,286 | 63% | 73% | +$778 | -$16,350 | 121.1% | $-17,941 (vs do-nothing $-14,020) |
| $152.50 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $5.60 | 5/5 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 62% | 73% | +$698 | -$15,850 | 117.4% | $-17,441 (vs do-nothing $-13,520) |
| $150 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $2.98 | 3/5 | $3,831 | $3,891 | 60% | 71% | +$903 | -$11,046 | 81.8% | $-13,569 (vs do-nothing $-9,648) |
| $150 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $2,861 | $2,921 | 58% | 70% | +$611 | -$10,605 | 78.6% | $-13,128 (vs do-nothing $-9,207) |
| $150 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $5.65 | 4/5 | $3,229 | $3,259 | 57% | 70% | +$689 | -$13,660 | 101.2% | $-15,717 (vs do-nothing $-11,796) |
| $150 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $6.60 | 5/5 | $3,536 | $3,536 | 57% | 70% | +$711 | -$16,600 | 123.0% | $-18,191 (vs do-nothing $-14,270) |
| $149 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.40 | 2/5 | $2,914 | $3,004 | 56% | 69% | +$607 | -$7,480 | 55.4% | $-10,469 (vs do-nothing $-6,548) |
| $149 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.90 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $3,210 | 55% | 69% | +$626 | -$10,770 | 79.8% | $-13,293 (vs do-nothing $-9,372) |
| $149 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $6.05 | 4/5 | $3,457 | $3,487 | 55% | 69% | +$674 | -$13,900 | 103.0% | $-15,957 (vs do-nothing $-12,036) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $7.05 | 4/5 | $3,021 | $3,051 | 55% | 69% | +$574 | -$13,500 | 100.0% | $-15,557 (vs do-nothing $-11,636) |
| $148 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $7.50 | 4/5 | $3,214 | $3,244 | 53% | 68% | +$568 | -$13,720 | 101.6% | $-15,777 (vs do-nothing $-11,856) |
| $148 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $6.50 | 4/5 | $3,714 | $3,744 | 52% | 68% | +$664 | -$14,120 | 104.6% | $-16,177 (vs do-nothing $-12,256) |
| $148 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.30 | 3/5 | $3,407 | $3,467 | 52% | 68% | +$586 | -$10,950 | 81.1% | $-13,473 (vs do-nothing $-9,552) |
| $148 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.85 | 2/5 | $3,300 | $3,390 | 52% | 67% | +$593 | -$7,590 | 56.2% | $-10,579 (vs do-nothing $-6,658) |
| $147 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $8.00 | 4/5 | $3,429 | $3,459 | 50% | 67% | +$572 | -$13,920 | 103.1% | $-15,977 (vs do-nothing $-12,056) |
| $147 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $7.00 | 3/5 | $3,000 | $3,060 | 50% | 67% | +$497 | -$10,740 | 79.6% | $-13,263 (vs do-nothing $-9,342) |
| $147 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.80 | 3/5 | $3,729 | $3,789 | 49% | 66% | +$585 | -$11,100 | 82.2% | $-13,623 (vs do-nothing $-9,702) |
| $146 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $8.50 | 4/5 | $3,643 | $3,673 | 48% | 66% | +$564 | -$14,120 | 104.6% | $-16,177 (vs do-nothing $-12,256) |
| $147 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.35 | 2/5 | $3,729 | $3,819 | 47% | 65% | +$580 | -$7,690 | 57.0% | $-10,679 (vs do-nothing $-6,758) |
| $146 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $7.50 | 3/5 | $3,214 | $3,274 | 47% | 66% | +$483 | -$10,890 | 80.7% | $-13,413 (vs do-nothing $-9,492) |
| $145 | 28d | 23 Oct 2026 | $9.05 | 3/5 | $2,909 | $2,969 | 46% | 65% | +$424 | -$10,725 | 79.4% | $-13,248 (vs do-nothing $-9,327) |
| $146 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.35 | 3/5 | $4,082 | $4,142 | 46% | 65% | +$593 | -$11,235 | 83.2% | $-13,758 (vs do-nothing $-9,837) |
| $145 | 21d | 16 Oct 2026 | $8.05 | 3/5 | $3,450 | $3,510 | 45% | 65% | +$478 | -$11,025 | 81.7% | $-13,548 (vs do-nothing $-9,627) |
| $146 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.90 | 2/5 | $4,200 | $4,290 | 43% | 64% | +$570 | -$7,780 | 57.6% | $-10,769 (vs do-nothing $-6,848) |
| $145 | 14d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.90 | 2/5 | $2,957 | $3,047 | 43% | 64% | +$384 | -$7,580 | 56.1% | $-10,569 (vs do-nothing $-6,648) |
| $145 | 7d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.50 | 2/5 | $4,714 | $4,804 | 39% | 62% | +$563 | -$7,860 | 58.2% | $-10,849 (vs do-nothing $-6,928) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.