FORTRESS FIGHT: SPCX @ $144.59

BE SS: $186.00  |  CC-SS: $190.72  |  5 contracts (500 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-29 03:13

SPCX @ $144.59   UNDERWATER $41.41 (22.3% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh)  |  BE SS: $186.00  |  CC-SS: $190.72 (banked floor $180.13)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $150 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $60.433/sh)
SP: $195 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $54.780/sh)
HP: $135 exp 2027-03-19 (entry $21.391/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$43,500(ND $27.00 + SW $60) x 500
Normal income ref$5,357/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay โ‰ˆ $1,320/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-25,625fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,679/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$5,357/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
2.5 mo to earn back $13,500
ML VELOCITY
8.1 mo to earn back $43,500
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $190.72 (probe: $190C 14d) brings only $54/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
๐Ÿฆ CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$6,297
Hole (after banked)
$19,328
was $25,625 ยท 25% earned back
Cycles closed
36
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$190.72 → $180.13
โš  ASSIGNMENT recorded: 5x $155C 20261002 on 2026-10-05. Premium kept, but check the position: assignment below CC-SS locks the cap give-up.
? 6 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (36) and event log · CLOSED 21 · EXPIRED 7 · UNKNOWN 6 · ASSIGNED 2 · updated 2026-10-29 03:10
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
CLOSED5x $160C 30 Oct 2026$0.95$4752026-10-232026-10-28$0.12$415U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $175C 30 Oct 2026$1.77$8852026-10-212026-10-22$0.34$715U13190865execution
EXPIRED5x $162.5C 14 Oct 2026$0.39$1952026-10-142026-10-15$0.00$195U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $180C 30 Oct 2026$2.21$4422026-10-132026-10-14$0.88$266U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $180C 30 Oct 2026$2.21$2212026-10-132026-10-14$0.88$133U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $180C 30 Oct 2026$2.21$4422026-10-132026-10-14$0.88$266U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $195C 30 Oct 2026$1.56$1562026-10-062026-10-13$0.67$89U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $195C 30 Oct 2026$1.56$1562026-10-062026-10-13$0.67$89U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $195C 30 Oct 2026$1.56$1562026-10-062026-10-13$0.67$89U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $195C 30 Oct 2026$1.56$3122026-10-062026-10-13$0.67$178U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $175C 23 Oct 2026$1.63$1632026-10-052026-10-06$4.30$-267U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $175C 23 Oct 2026$1.63$1632026-10-052026-10-06$4.31$-268U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $175C 23 Oct 2026$1.63$1632026-10-052026-10-06$4.32$-269U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $175C 23 Oct 2026$1.63$1632026-10-052026-10-06$4.32$-269U13190865snapshot
CLOSED1x $175C 23 Oct 2026$1.63$1632026-10-052026-10-06$4.30$-267U13190865snapshot
ASSIGNED5x $155C 2 Oct 2026$1.11$5562026-09-282026-10-05$0.00$556U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $165C 25 Sep 2026$1.40$7002026-09-172026-09-28$0.00$700U13190865execution
EXPIRED5x $160C 11 Sep 2026$1.00$5022026-09-082026-09-14$0.00$502U13190865snapshot
CLOSED5x $152.5C 4 Sep 2026$0.74$3682026-09-012026-09-02$0.10$318U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $146C 28 Aug 2026$1.09$5472026-08-252026-08-31$0.00$547U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $160C 21 Aug 2026$1.21$6052026-08-182026-08-24$0.00$605U13190865execution
EXPIRED5x $148C 14 Aug 2026$0.79$3972026-08-142026-08-17$0.00$397U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $200C 4 Sep 2026$0.93$4652026-08-132026-08-14$0.93$0U13190865execution
CLOSED1x $150C 14 Aug 2026$0.95$952026-08-102026-08-13$2.02$-107U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $150C 14 Aug 2026$0.95$1902026-08-102026-08-13$2.02$-214U13190865execution
CLOSED2x $150C 14 Aug 2026$0.95$1902026-08-102026-08-13$2.02$-214U13190865execution
ASSIGNED5x $131C 7 Aug 2026$1.04$5222026-08-062026-08-10$0.00$522U13190865snapshot
EXPIRED5x $125C 31 Jul 2026$1.30$6502026-07-282026-08-03$0.00$650U13190865execution
CLOSED5x $130C 31 Jul 2026$1.54$7712026-07-272026-07-28$0.90$322U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $165C 7 Aug 2026$2.67$1,3332026-07-222026-07-27$2.67$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $134C 24 Jul 2026$1.04$5212026-07-212026-07-22$1.04$0U13190865snapshot
CLOSED3x $150C 24 Jul 2026$1.58$4752026-07-172026-07-20$0.34$373U13190865snapshot
CLOSED2x $150C 24 Jul 2026$1.58$3162026-07-172026-07-20$0.34$248U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $155C 17 Jul 2026$0.80$4002026-07-142026-07-17$0.80$0U13190865execution
UNKNOWN5x $175C 17 Jul 2026$1.09$5462026-07-102026-07-14$1.09$0U13190865snapshot
UNKNOWN5x $185C 10 Jul 2026$1.45$7262026-07-022026-07-10$1.45$0U13190865seed
Event log
2026-10-28 CLOSED 5x $160C 20261030: banked $415
2026-10-23 SOLD 5x $160C 20261030 @ $0.95 (new leg)
2026-10-22 CLOSED 5x $175C 20261030: banked $715
2026-10-21 SOLD 5x $175C 20261030 @ $1.77 (new leg)
2026-10-15 BOT 5x $162.5C 20261014 @ $0.00 with no tracked leg (ignored)
2026-10-15 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $162.5C: banked $195
2026-10-14 CLOSED 2x $180C 20261030: banked $266
2026-10-14 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $180C: banked $266 (2 remain)
2026-10-14 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $180C: banked $133 (4 remain)
2026-10-14 SOLD 1x $162.5C 20261014 @ $0.39 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-14 SOLD 3x $162.5C 20261014 @ $0.39 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-14 SOLD 1x $162.5C 20261014 @ $0.39 (new leg)
2026-10-13 CLOSED 1x $195C 20261030: banked $89
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $195C: banked $178 (1 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $195C: banked $89 (3 remain)
2026-10-13 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $195C: banked $89 (4 remain)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $180C 20261030 @ $2.21 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-13 SOLD 2x $180C 20261030 @ $2.21 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $180C 20261030 @ $2.21 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-13 SOLD 1x $180C 20261030 @ $2.21 (new leg)
2026-10-06 CLOSED 1x $175C 20261023: banked $-267
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $175C: banked $-267 (1 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $175C: banked $-269 (2 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $175C: banked $-269 (3 remain)
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $175C: banked $-268 (4 remain)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $195C 20261030 @ $1.57 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $195C 20261030 @ $1.57 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $195C 20261030 @ $1.56 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $195C 20261030 @ $1.56 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-06 SOLD 1x $195C 20261030 @ $1.55 (new leg)
2026-10-05 TRACKING 5x $175C 20261023 @ $1.63 (snapshot)
2026-10-05 โš  ASSIGNED 5x $155C 20261002 (spot $163.25 > strike): premium $556 kept, assignment cost is in the fortress P&L, check the position
2026-09-28 TRACKING 5x $155C 20261002 @ $1.11 (snapshot)
2026-09-28 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $165C: banked $700
2026-09-17 SOLD 5x $165C 20260925 @ $1.40 (new leg)
2026-09-14 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $160C: banked $502
2026-09-08 TRACKING 5x $160C 20260911 @ $1.00 (snapshot)
2026-09-02 CLOSED 5x $152.5C 20260904: banked $318
2026-09-01 TRACKING 5x $152.5C 20260904 @ $0.74 (snapshot)
2026-08-31 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 5x $146C: banked $547
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $152.50 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 88%, breach 12%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,679/mo); it brings $3,375/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 ร— $150/2d for $6,225/mo, but breach risk rises to 21% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 ร— $195/23d (98% survival, $189/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $18,885 (140% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $186, recoverable in 3.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-25,627 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (2d) · sell 5 × $152.50, 88% survival, $3,375/mo (E[net] $2,465/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆30 Oct 2026 · 2d5 × $152.5088%$3,375$2,465
NEXT FRIDAY6 Nov 2026 · 9d5 × $152.5075%$3,250$175
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $225 with probability 87%; on the 13% touch you roll, paying $1,012 to close and taking $764 back from the best priced door (net cash $248) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 2d · E[net] $2,465/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 5 ร— $152.50 (50% normal), 88% survival, breach 12%, $3,375/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $155 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 93% (breach 12% โ†’ 7%) for $1,575/mo less (47% income) buys safety you do not really need here.
SPCX  spot $144.59 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸33% normal5 × $15530 Oct2d7.2%93%hist 95%15%hist 13%+5pp$120$1,800-$1,575$17,740
Sell 5 ร— $155 7.2% OTM over spot $144.59 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid)
= $120 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $1,800/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $155)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays โ‰ค $155.25)
93%
EV / mo
+$901
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
63% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,324/mo
median; plan ~$900/mo after 68% keep · $6,200 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$909
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$173 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now โ†’ $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.06โ€“$4.24) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 186 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $158 (overshoots $2.55). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1552 Nov 20264d left+$0.93/sh+$467
cycle +$587
[+$294โ€ฆ+$526] ยท 91% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$19,849 NOT
cap gain +$5,776
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$16520 Nov 202622d left+$1.51/sh+$753
cycle +$873
[+$185โ€ฆ+$823] ยท 81% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$14,374 NOT
cap gain +$11,251
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1562 Nov 20264d left+$0.29/sh+$147
cycle +$267
[-$174โ€ฆ+$169] ยท 58% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$19,466 NOT
cap gain +$6,159
Max even-money escape in the band~$17020 Nov 202622d left+$0.36/sh+$181
cycle +$301
[-$537โ€ฆ+$220] ยท 49% credit
84%
surv 80%
-$12,453 NOT
cap gain +$13,172
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17320 Nov 202622d left-$0.07/sh-$36
cycle +$84
[-$817โ€ฆ-$9] ยท 24% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$11,424 NOT
cap gain +$14,201
budget: banked $120 debit $36 (30% used โ‰ˆ 0.1 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$84 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,353/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,800/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $155 is $36 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$17,740
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)131.4%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)40.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,627
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $155.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $153.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$153-155.25
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $155.25
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$155.00 (1.9ฯƒ)$120$-20,316+$5,309+$105
+2.5%$158.88 (2.6ฯƒ)$-1,818$-20,321+$5,304-$1,832
+5%$162.75 (3.3ฯƒ)$-3,755$-20,327+$5,298-$3,770
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (7.5ฯƒ)$-15,380$-20,362+$5,263-$14,895
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $155): -$17,740
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,369 (+$5,256 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,895, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now)
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield5 × $15530 Oct2d7.2%93%hist 95%15%hist 13%+5pp$120$1,800-$1,575$17,740
Sell 5 ร— $155 7.2% OTM over spot $144.59 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid)
= $120 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $1,800/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $155)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays โ‰ค $155.25)
93%
EV / mo
+$901
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+5pp
63% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,324/mo
median; plan ~$900/mo after 68% keep · $6,200 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-3.9], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
6%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$909
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$173 @ 86% POP
84% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.91/sh now โ†’ $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.06โ€“$4.24) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 186 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $158 (overshoots $2.55). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1552 Nov 20264d left+$0.93/sh+$467
cycle +$587
[+$294โ€ฆ+$526] ยท 91% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$19,849 NOT
cap gain +$5,776
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$16520 Nov 202622d left+$1.51/sh+$753
cycle +$873
[+$185โ€ฆ+$823] ยท 81% credit
78%
surv 73%
-$14,374 NOT
cap gain +$11,251
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1562 Nov 20264d left+$0.29/sh+$147
cycle +$267
[-$174โ€ฆ+$169] ยท 58% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$19,466 NOT
cap gain +$6,159
Max even-money escape in the band~$17020 Nov 202622d left+$0.36/sh+$181
cycle +$301
[-$537โ€ฆ+$220] ยท 49% credit
84%
surv 80%
-$12,453 NOT
cap gain +$13,172
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17320 Nov 202622d left-$0.07/sh-$36
cycle +$84
[-$817โ€ฆ-$9] ยท 24% credit
86%
surv 84%
-$11,424 NOT
cap gain +$14,201
budget: banked $120 debit $36 (30% used โ‰ˆ 0.1 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$84 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,353/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)-33%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)34% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,800/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $155 is $36 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$17,740
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)131.4%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)40.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,627
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $155.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $153.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$153-155.25
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $155.25
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$155.00 (1.9ฯƒ)$120$-20,316+$5,309+$105
+2.5%$158.88 (2.6ฯƒ)$-1,818$-20,321+$5,304-$1,832
+5%$162.75 (3.3ฯƒ)$-3,755$-20,327+$5,298-$3,770
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (7.5ฯƒ)$-15,380$-20,362+$5,263-$14,895
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $155): -$17,740
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,369 (+$5,256 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,895, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal5 × $152.5030 Oct2d5.5%88%hist 86%25%hist 23%+10pp$225$3,375—$18,885
Sell 5 ร— $152.50 5.5% OTM over spot $144.59 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.46 mid)
= $225 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $3,375/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $152.50)
88%
Breach risk
12%
POP (stays โ‰ค $152.96)
89%
EV / mo
+$1,474
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+10pp
64% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,184/mo
median; plan ~$1,485/mo after 68% keep · $9,995 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
13%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$787
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$173 @ 88% POP
86% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.86/sh now โ†’ $2.02 mid-life (likely $2.27โ€“$4.35) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 385 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $155 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1522 Nov 20264d left+$0.96/sh+$480
cycle +$705
[+$278โ€ฆ+$480] ยท 93% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$20,977 NOT
cap gain +$4,648
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$16320 Nov 202622d left+$1.53/sh+$764
cycle +$989
[+$151โ€ฆ+$724] ยท 81% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$15,503 NOT
cap gain +$10,122
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1542 Nov 20264d left+$0.32/sh+$161
cycle +$386
[-$175โ€ฆ+$131] ยท 56% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$20,593 NOT
cap gain +$5,032
Max even-money escape in the band~$16820 Nov 202622d left+$0.39/sh+$194
cycle +$419
[-$573โ€ฆ+$127] ยท 43% credit
84%
surv 80%
-$13,581 NOT
cap gain +$12,044
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17320 Nov 202622d left-$0.41/sh-$205
cycle +$20
[-$1,088โ€ฆ-$292] ยท 2% credit
88%
surv 86%
-$11,487 NOT
cap gain +$14,138
budget: banked $225 debit $205 (91% used โ‰ˆ 0.3 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$20 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,101/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,375/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)+26%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)63% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,375/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $152.50 is $38 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$18,885
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)139.9%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)43.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,627
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $152.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $150.97Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$151-152.96
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $152.96
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$152.50 (1.4ฯƒ)$225$-21,457+$4,168+$210
+2.5%$156.31 (2.1ฯƒ)$-1,681$-21,463+$4,162-$1,696
+5%$160.12 (2.8ฯƒ)$-3,588$-21,468+$4,157-$3,602
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (7.5ฯƒ)$-16,525$-21,507+$4,118-$16,040
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $152.50): -$18,885
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,514 (+$4,111 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,040, the opportunity cost of earning $3,375/mo FIGHT income now)
▸100% normal5 × $15030 Oct2d3.7%79%hist 83%42%hist 40%+18pp$415$6,225+$2,850$19,945
Sell 5 ร— $150 3.7% OTM over spot $144.59 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.83 mid)
= $415 credit for the 2d cycle โ†’ $6,225/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $150)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays โ‰ค $150.84)
83%
EV / mo
+$2,184
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+18pp
78% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.1/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$3,325/mo
median; plan ~$2,261/mo after 68% keep · $10,192 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
25%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$581
Free roll-up
+$3/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$173 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.82/sh now โ†’ $1.99 mid-life (likely $2.32โ€“$4.38) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 752 simulated challenges: the $150 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $153 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1502 Nov 20264d left+$0.99/sh+$493
cycle +$908
[+$283โ€ฆ+$482] ยท 93% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$22,020 NOT
cap gain +$3,605
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$16020 Nov 202622d left+$1.55/sh+$774
cycle +$1,189
[+$138โ€ฆ+$714] ยท 79% credit
79%
surv 73%
-$16,549 NOT
cap gain +$9,076
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1512 Nov 20264d left+$0.35/sh+$174
cycle +$589
[-$189โ€ฆ+$133] ยท 54% credit
69%
surv 58%
-$21,637 NOT
cap gain +$3,988
Max even-money escape in the band~$16520 Nov 202622d left+$0.41/sh+$205
cycle +$620
[-$582โ€ฆ+$105] ยท 37% credit
84%
surv 81%
-$14,626 NOT
cap gain +$10,999
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17320 Nov 202622d left-$0.67/sh-$333
cycle +$82
[-$1,286โ€ฆ-$459]
90%
surv 89%
-$11,426 NOT
cap gain +$14,199
budget: banked $415 debit $333 (80% used โ‰ˆ 0.2 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$82 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $903/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$6,225/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)+132%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)116% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,225/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $150 is $41 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,945
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)147.7%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)45.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,627
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $150.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $150)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 4d left3d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $148.50Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$148-150.84
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $150.84
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$150.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$415$-22,513+$3,112+$400
+2.5%$153.75 (1.7ฯƒ)$-1,460$-22,519+$3,106-$1,475
+5%$157.50 (2.3ฯƒ)$-3,335$-22,524+$3,101-$3,350
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (7.5ฯƒ)$-17,585$-22,567+$3,058-$17,100
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $150): -$19,945
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,574 (+$3,051 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,100, the opportunity cost of earning $6,225/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPCX are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 9d · E[net] $175/mo

๐ŸŽฏ Engine pick: sell 5 ร— $152.50 (50% normal), 75% survival, breach 25%, $3,250/mo.
โš–๏ธ Worth a safer step: the $155 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 25% โ†’ 19%) for $850/mo less (26% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (โ‰ˆ1ฯƒ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $155 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPCX to stay flat-to-down near term.
SPCX  spot $144.59 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸๐Ÿ›ก safe yield5 × $162.506 Nov9d12.4%93%hist 95%14%hist 13%+4pp$265$883-$2,367$13,845
Sell 5 ร— $162.50 12.4% OTM over spot $144.59 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.55 mid)
= $265 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $883/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $162.50)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays โ‰ค $163.05)
94%
EV / mo
+$570
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+4pp
57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$660/mo
median; plan ~$448/mo after 68% keep · $4,329 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.7], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,727
Free roll-up
none
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$170 @ 77% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.63/sh now โ†’ $3.98 mid-life (likely $2.99โ€“$5.31) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.45/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 302 simulated challenges: the $162 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $165 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$16820 Nov 202618d left+$0.64/sh+$318
cycle +$583
[+$105โ€ฆ+$791] ยท 84% credit
74%
surv 64%
-$13,417 NOT
cap gain +$12,208
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1629 Nov 20268d left+$0.01/sh+$7
cycle +$272
[-$42โ€ฆ+$421] ยท 70% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$16,425 NOT
cap gain +$9,200
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17020 Nov 202618d left-$0.24/sh-$120
cycle +$145
[-$395โ€ฆ+$313] ยท 40% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$12,609 NOT
cap gain +$13,016
budget: banked $265 debit $120 (45% used โ‰ˆ 0.6 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$145 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $3,120/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$883/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)-67%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)16% covered
Net income (after hedge)$883/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $162.50 is $28 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$13,845
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)102.6%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)31.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)2.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,635
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $163.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $162)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $160.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$161-163.05
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $163.05
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$162.50 (1.5ฯƒ)$265$-16,432+$9,193+$250
+2.5%$166.56 (1.9ฯƒ)$-1,766$-16,438+$9,187-$1,781
+5%$170.62 (2.2ฯƒ)$-3,798$-16,444+$9,181-$3,812
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (3.6ฯƒ)$-11,485$-16,467+$9,158-$11,000
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $162.50): -$13,845
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,474 (+$9,151 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,000, the opportunity cost of earning $883/mo FIGHT income now)
▸33% normal ← lean5 × $1556 Nov9d7.2%81%hist 86%39%hist 30%+8pp$720$2,400-$850$17,140
Sell 5 ร— $155 7.2% OTM over spot $144.59 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $1.46 mid)
= $720 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $2,400/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $155)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays โ‰ค $156.46)
84%
EV / mo
+$871
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+8pp
59% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~1.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,271/mo
median; plan ~$864/mo after 68% keep · $7,387 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.3], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,180
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$168 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.37/sh now โ†’ $3.80 mid-life (likely $3.84โ€“$5.98) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 828 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $157 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$16020 Nov 202618d left+$0.80/sh+$402
cycle +$1,122
[-$7โ€ฆ+$500] ยท 75% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$16,617 NOT
cap gain +$9,008
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1559 Nov 20268d left+$0.20/sh+$98
cycle +$818
[-$82โ€ฆ+$221] ยท 56% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$19,618 NOT
cap gain +$6,007
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1559 Nov 20268d left+$0.02/sh+$12
cycle +$732
[-$181โ€ฆ+$120] ยท 41% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$19,499 NOT
cap gain +$6,126
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$16820 Nov 202618d left-$1.39/sh-$694
cycle +$26
[-$1,356โ€ฆ-$697] ยท 4% credit
82%
surv 79%
-$13,974 NOT
cap gain +$11,651
budget: banked $720 debit $694 (96% used โ‰ˆ 1.3 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$26 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $2,009/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,400/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)-10%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)45% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,400/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $155 is $36 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$17,140
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)127.0%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)39.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,632
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.44 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $156.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $155)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $153.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$153-156.46
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $156.46
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$155.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$720$-19,716+$5,909+$705
+2.5%$158.88 (1.2ฯƒ)$-1,218$-19,721+$5,904-$1,232
+5%$162.75 (1.6ฯƒ)$-3,155$-19,727+$5,898-$3,170
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (3.6ฯƒ)$-14,780$-19,762+$5,863-$14,295
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $155): -$17,140
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,769 (+$5,856 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,295, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now)
▸๐ŸŽฏ 50% normal5 × $152.506 Nov9d5.5%75%hist 83%50%hist 44%+10pp$975$3,250—$18,135
Sell 5 ร— $152.50 5.5% OTM over spot $144.59 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $1.98 mid)
= $975 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $3,250/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $152.50)
75%
Breach risk
25%
POP (stays โ‰ค $154.49)
80%
EV / mo
+$1,022
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+10pp
58% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$1,540/mo
median; plan ~$1,047/mo after 68% keep · $9,424 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
38%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$894
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$168 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.29/sh now โ†’ $3.74 mid-life (likely $3.98โ€“$6.03) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,145 simulated challenges: the $152 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $155 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band~$15820 Nov 202618d left+$0.85/sh+$427
cycle +$1,402
[-$17โ€ฆ+$456] ยท 73% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$17,583 NOT
cap gain +$8,042
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1529 Nov 20268d left+$0.25/sh+$126
cycle +$1,101
[-$84โ€ฆ+$211] ยท 54% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$20,580 NOT
cap gain +$5,045
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1539 Nov 20268d left+$0.08/sh+$41
cycle +$1,016
[-$183โ€ฆ+$110] ยท 36% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$20,462 NOT
cap gain +$5,163
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$16820 Nov 202618d left-$1.79/sh-$897
cycle +$78
[-$1,656โ€ฆ-$970] ยท 1% credit
85%
surv 83%
-$13,922 NOT
cap gain +$11,703
budget: banked $975 debit $897 (92% used โ‰ˆ 1.2 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$78 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $1,620/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,250/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)+21%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)61% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,250/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $152.50 is $38 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$18,135
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)134.3%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)41.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,642
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $154.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $152)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $150.97Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$151-154.49
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $154.49
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$152.50 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$975$-20,707+$4,918+$960
+2.5%$156.31 (1.0ฯƒ)$-931$-20,713+$4,912-$946
+5%$160.12 (1.3ฯƒ)$-2,838$-20,718+$4,907-$2,852
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (3.6ฯƒ)$-15,775$-20,757+$4,868-$15,290
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $152.50): -$18,135
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,764 (+$4,861 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,290, the opportunity cost of earning $3,250/mo FIGHT income now)
▸100% normal5 × $1486 Nov9d2.4%63%hist 66%77%hist 68%+16pp$1,675$5,583+$2,333$19,685
Sell 5 ร— $148 2.4% OTM over spot $144.59 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $3.40 mid)
= $1,675 credit for the 9d cycle โ†’ $5,583/mo projected
Survival (stays โ‰ค $148)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays โ‰ค $151.40)
72%
EV / mo
+$1,169
๐Ÿ“ˆ CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+16pp
66% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~4.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$2,046/mo
median; plan ~$1,391/mo after 68% keep · $9,028 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.3], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole
๐Ÿ›ก IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) ยท challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
62%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$139
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)
$171 @ 91% POP
91% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.13/sh now โ†’ $3.63 mid-life (likely $4.57โ€“$6.41) โ†’ โ‰ˆ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
๐Ÿ“Š Across 1,875 simulated challenges: the $148 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $150 (overshoots $2.37). The [P25โ€“P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike โ‰ˆNew expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free โ‰ฅ60%)~$15320 Nov 202618d left+$0.94/sh+$468
cycle +$2,143
[-$76โ€ฆ+$283] ยท 65% credit
74%
surv 65%
-$19,086 NOT
cap gain +$6,539
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1489 Nov 20268d left+$0.35/sh+$175
cycle +$1,850
[-$85โ€ฆ+$103] ยท 44% credit
66%
surv 51%
-$22,075 NOT
cap gain +$3,550
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1489 Nov 20268d left+$0.18/sh+$89
cycle +$1,764
[-$183โ€ฆ+$1] ยท 25% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$21,956 NOT
cap gain +$3,669
Max even-money escape in the band~$15620 Nov 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$34
cycle +$1,709
[-$603โ€ฆ-$190] ยท 14% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$18,273 NOT
cap gain +$7,352
SS $186 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$17120 Nov 202618d left-$2.65/sh-$1,325
cycle +$350
[-$2,406โ€ฆ-$1,698]
91%
surv 91%
-$12,155 NOT
cap gain +$13,470
budget: banked $1,675 debit $1,325 (79% used โ‰ˆ 1.0 wk of income) โ†’ whole cycle still +$350 cash ยท rolled 5 ct earn โ‰ˆ $815/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L โ‰ฅ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays โ‰ค strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays โ‰ค strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) ร— a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,583/mo
vs 50% target ($2,679/mo)+108%
vs normal income ($5,357/mo)104% covered
Net income (after hedge)$5,583/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $148 is $43 below CC-SS $190.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$19,685
โ€ฆ as % of IC ($13,500)145.8%
โ€ฆ as % of ML ($43,500)45.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)3.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-25,650
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot โ‰ฅ $151.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot โˆ’ $148)); NOT the premium you collected.
Spot \ Timeโ‰ฅ 5d left3-4d leftโ‰ค 2d (expiry)
Below $146.52Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$147-151.40
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.โ˜… Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
โ‰ฅ $151.40
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ยท  fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$148.00 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$1,675$-22,250+$3,375+$1,660
+2.5%$151.70 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-175$-22,256+$3,369-$190
+5%$155.40 (โ‰ค1ฯƒ, normal week)$-2,025$-22,261+$3,364-$2,040
SS (= V-bounce)$186.00 (3.6ฯƒ)$-17,325$-22,307+$3,318-$16,840
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock โ†’ CC-SS $190.72, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,625
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,996
โˆ’ CC assignment net of premium (5 ร— $148): -$19,685
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,314 (+$3,311 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,474 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,840, the opportunity cost of earning $5,583/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPCX are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (77 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 77 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary ๐ŸŽฏ is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.997 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$22,996 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,474

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$152.502d30 Oct 2026$0.455/5$225$3,375$3,37588%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$1,474-$18,885139.9%3.5mo$-21,514 (vs do-nothing $-16,040)
$1502d30 Oct 2026$0.835/5$415$6,225$6,22579%hist 83%42%hist 40%83%+$2,184-$19,945147.7%3.7mo$-22,574 (vs do-nothing $-17,100)
$152.507d4 Nov 2026$1.415/5$705$3,021$3,02178%hist 83%44%hist 40%82%+$1,032-$18,405136.3%3.4mo$-21,034 (vs do-nothing $-15,560)
$1505d2 Nov 2026$1.295/5$645$3,870$3,87075%hist 83%50%hist 40%80%+$1,264-$19,715146.0%3.7mo$-22,344 (vs do-nothing $-16,870)
$152.509d6 Nov 2026$1.955/5$975$3,250$3,25075%hist 83%50%hist 44%80%+$1,022-$18,135134.3%3.4mo$-20,764 (vs do-nothing $-15,290)
$1492d30 Oct 2026$1.055/5$525$7,875$7,87575%hist 83%50%hist 44%80%+$2,481-$20,335150.6%3.8mo$-22,964 (vs do-nothing $-17,490)
$1495d2 Nov 2026$1.565/5$780$4,680$4,68072%hist 83%58%hist 44%78%+$1,407-$20,080148.7%3.7mo$-22,709 (vs do-nothing $-17,235)
$152.5016d13 Nov 2026$3.155/5$1,575$2,953$2,95371%hist 83%60%hist 44%77%+$798-$17,535129.9%3.3mo$-20,164 (vs do-nothing $-14,690)
$1507d4 Nov 2026$2.045/5$1,020$4,371$4,37171%hist 83%59%hist 44%77%+$1,206-$19,340143.3%3.6mo$-21,969 (vs do-nothing $-16,495)
$1482d30 Oct 2026$1.335/5$665$9,975$9,97570%hist 83%60%hist 54%77%+$2,803-$20,695153.3%3.9mo$-23,324 (vs do-nothing $-17,850)
$1509d6 Nov 2026$2.675/5$1,335$4,450$4,45069%hist 66%65%hist 54%76%+$1,152-$19,025140.9%3.6mo$-21,654 (vs do-nothing $-16,180)
$152.5023d20 Nov 2026$4.405/5$2,200$2,870$2,87068%hist 66%66%hist 54%76%+$753-$16,910125.3%3.2mo$-19,539 (vs do-nothing $-14,065)
$15012d9 Nov 2026$2.895/5$1,445$3,612$3,61268%hist 66%66%hist 54%76%+$920-$18,915140.1%3.5mo$-21,544 (vs do-nothing $-16,070)
Show 64 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 64.

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$1497d4 Nov 2026$2.355/5$1,175$5,036$5,03668%hist 66%66%hist 54%75%+$1,271-$19,685145.8%3.7mo$-22,314 (vs do-nothing $-16,840)
$1485d2 Nov 2026$1.885/5$940$5,640$5,64067%hist 66%67%hist 54%75%+$1,469-$20,420151.3%3.8mo$-23,049 (vs do-nothing $-17,575)
$15014d11 Nov 2026$3.205/5$1,600$3,429$3,42967%hist 66%69%hist 54%75%+$745-$18,760139.0%3.5mo$-21,389 (vs do-nothing $-15,915)
$1499d6 Nov 2026$3.005/5$1,500$5,000$5,00066%hist 66%71%hist 68%74%+$1,174-$19,360143.4%3.6mo$-21,989 (vs do-nothing $-16,515)
$15016d13 Nov 2026$4.005/5$2,000$3,750$3,75065%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$894-$18,360136.0%3.4mo$-20,989 (vs do-nothing $-15,515)
$14912d9 Nov 2026$3.205/5$1,600$4,000$4,00065%hist 66%72%hist 68%74%+$917-$19,260142.7%3.6mo$-21,889 (vs do-nothing $-16,415)
$1472d30 Oct 2026$1.665/5$830$12,450$12,45065%hist 66%71%hist 68%74%+$3,050-$21,030155.8%3.9mo$-23,659 (vs do-nothing $-18,185)
$14914d11 Nov 2026$3.355/5$1,675$3,589$3,58964%hist 66%74%hist 68%74%+$560-$19,185142.1%3.6mo$-21,814 (vs do-nothing $-16,340)
$1487d4 Nov 2026$2.705/5$1,350$5,786$5,78664%hist 66%73%hist 68%73%+$1,338-$20,010148.2%3.7mo$-22,639 (vs do-nothing $-17,165)
$15023d20 Nov 2026$5.305/5$2,650$3,457$3,45764%hist 66%76%hist 68%73%+$811-$17,710131.2%3.3mo$-20,339 (vs do-nothing $-14,865)
$14916d13 Nov 2026$4.355/5$2,175$4,078$4,07863%hist 66%77%hist 68%73%+$895-$18,685138.4%3.5mo$-21,314 (vs do-nothing $-15,840)
$1475d2 Nov 2026$2.245/5$1,120$6,720$6,72063%hist 66%76%hist 68%73%+$1,584-$20,740153.6%3.9mo$-23,369 (vs do-nothing $-17,895)
$1489d6 Nov 2026$3.355/5$1,675$5,583$5,58363%hist 66%77%hist 68%72%+$1,169-$19,685145.8%3.7mo$-22,314 (vs do-nothing $-16,840)
$14812d9 Nov 2026$3.505/5$1,750$4,375$4,37562%hist 66%78%hist 68%73%+$858-$19,610145.3%3.7mo$-22,239 (vs do-nothing $-16,765)
$14923d20 Nov 2026$5.705/5$2,850$3,717$3,71762%hist 66%80%hist 79%72%+$830-$18,010133.4%3.4mo$-20,639 (vs do-nothing $-15,165)
$14814d11 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$4,018$4,01862%hist 66%80%hist 68%73%+$607-$19,485144.3%3.6mo$-22,114 (vs do-nothing $-16,640)
$14816d13 Nov 2026$4.755/5$2,375$4,453$4,45361%hist 66%82%hist 79%72%+$916-$18,985140.6%3.5mo$-21,614 (vs do-nothing $-16,140)
$1477d4 Nov 2026$3.055/5$1,525$6,536$6,53661%hist 66%81%hist 79%71%+$1,318-$20,335150.6%3.8mo$-22,964 (vs do-nothing $-17,490)
$1479d6 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$6,250$6,25060%hist 70%83%hist 79%71%+$1,438-$19,985148.0%3.7mo$-22,614 (vs do-nothing $-17,140)
$14823d20 Nov 2026$6.105/5$3,050$3,978$3,97860%hist 70%85%hist 79%71%+$834-$18,310135.6%3.4mo$-20,939 (vs do-nothing $-15,465)
$1462d30 Oct 2026$2.055/5$1,025$15,375$15,37559%hist 70%83%hist 79%71%+$3,282-$21,335158.0%4.0mo$-23,964 (vs do-nothing $-18,490)
$14712d9 Nov 2026$3.755/5$1,875$4,688$4,68859%hist 70%84%hist 79%71%+$689-$19,985148.0%3.7mo$-22,614 (vs do-nothing $-17,140)
$14714d11 Nov 2026$3.855/5$1,925$4,125$4,12559%hist 70%85%hist 79%71%+$295-$19,935147.7%3.7mo$-22,564 (vs do-nothing $-17,090)
$14716d13 Nov 2026$5.205/5$2,600$4,875$4,87558%hist 70%87%hist 79%70%+$957-$19,260142.7%3.6mo$-21,889 (vs do-nothing $-16,415)
$14723d20 Nov 2026$6.555/5$3,275$4,272$4,27258%hist 70%89%hist 79%70%+$856-$18,585137.7%3.5mo$-21,214 (vs do-nothing $-15,740)
$1465d2 Nov 2026$2.665/5$1,330$7,980$7,98058%hist 70%87%hist 79%69%+$1,060-$21,030155.8%3.9mo$-23,659 (vs do-nothing $-18,185)
$1467d4 Nov 2026$3.505/5$1,750$7,500$7,50057%hist 70%89%hist 79%69%+$1,420-$20,610152.7%3.8mo$-23,239 (vs do-nothing $-17,765)
$1469d6 Nov 2026$4.205/5$2,100$7,000$7,00056%hist 70%90%hist 79%70%+$1,504-$20,260150.1%3.8mo$-22,889 (vs do-nothing $-17,415)
$14612d9 Nov 2026$4.205/5$2,100$5,250$5,25056%hist 70%91%hist 89%70%+$724-$20,260150.1%3.8mo$-22,889 (vs do-nothing $-17,415)
$14614d11 Nov 2026$4.655/5$2,325$4,982$4,98256%hist 70%91%hist 89%70%+$694-$20,035148.4%3.7mo$-22,664 (vs do-nothing $-17,190)
$14616d13 Nov 2026$5.655/5$2,825$5,297$5,29756%hist 70%92%hist 89%69%+$970-$19,535144.7%3.6mo$-22,164 (vs do-nothing $-16,690)
$14623d20 Nov 2026$7.005/5$3,500$4,565$4,56556%hist 70%94%hist 89%69%+$863-$18,860139.7%3.5mo$-21,489 (vs do-nothing $-16,015)
$14523d20 Nov 2026$7.455/5$3,725$4,859$4,85953%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$853-$19,135141.7%3.6mo$-21,764 (vs do-nothing $-16,290)
$1452d30 Oct 2026$2.505/5$1,250$18,750$18,75053%hist 70%95%hist 89%68%+$3,460-$21,610160.1%4.0mo$-24,239 (vs do-nothing $-18,765)
$14516d13 Nov 2026$6.105/5$3,050$5,719$5,71953%hist 70%98%hist 89%68%+$956-$19,810146.7%3.7mo$-22,439 (vs do-nothing $-16,965)
$14514d11 Nov 2026$5.005/5$2,500$5,357$5,35753%hist 70%97%hist 89%68%+$572-$20,360150.8%3.8mo$-22,989 (vs do-nothing $-17,515)
$1455d2 Nov 2026$3.105/5$1,550$9,300$9,30053%hist 70%96%hist 89%67%+$1,057-$21,310157.9%4.0mo$-23,939 (vs do-nothing $-18,465)
$14512d9 Nov 2026$4.855/5$2,425$6,062$6,06253%hist 70%97%hist 89%68%+$959-$20,435151.4%3.8mo$-23,064 (vs do-nothing $-17,590)
$1459d6 Nov 2026$4.655/5$2,325$7,750$7,75053%hist 70%97%hist 89%68%+$1,504-$20,535152.1%3.8mo$-23,164 (vs do-nothing $-17,690)
$1457d4 Nov 2026$3.955/5$1,975$8,464$8,46453%hist 70%97%hist 89%68%+$1,428-$20,885154.7%3.9mo$-23,514 (vs do-nothing $-18,040)
$14423d20 Nov 2026$7.955/5$3,975$5,185$5,18551%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$858-$19,385143.6%3.6mo$-22,014 (vs do-nothing $-16,540)
$14416d13 Nov 2026$6.605/5$3,300$6,188$6,18851%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$961-$20,060148.6%3.7mo$-22,689 (vs do-nothing $-17,215)
$14414d11 Nov 2026$5.605/5$2,800$6,000$6,00050%hist 70%100%hist 89%67%+$679-$20,560152.3%3.8mo$-23,189 (vs do-nothing $-17,715)
$14412d9 Nov 2026$5.255/5$2,625$6,562$6,56250%100%hist 89%67%+$831-$20,735153.6%3.9mo$-23,364 (vs do-nothing $-17,890)
$1449d6 Nov 2026$5.155/5$2,575$8,583$8,58350%100%hist 89%67%+$1,520-$20,785154.0%3.9mo$-23,414 (vs do-nothing $-17,940)
$14323d20 Nov 2026$8.505/5$4,250$5,543$5,54349%100%hist 89%66%+$877-$19,610145.3%3.7mo$-22,239 (vs do-nothing $-16,765)
$1447d4 Nov 2026$4.455/5$2,225$9,536$9,53649%100%hist 89%66%+$1,455-$21,135156.6%3.9mo$-23,764 (vs do-nothing $-18,290)
$1445d2 Nov 2026$3.605/5$1,800$10,800$10,80048%100%hist 89%65%+$1,073-$21,560159.7%4.0mo$-24,189 (vs do-nothing $-18,715)
$14316d13 Nov 2026$7.155/5$3,575$6,703$6,70348%100%hist 89%66%+$985-$20,285150.3%3.8mo$-22,914 (vs do-nothing $-17,440)
$1442d30 Oct 2026$3.005/5$1,500$22,500$22,50047%100%hist 89%65%+$3,441-$21,860161.9%4.1mo$-24,489 (vs do-nothing $-19,015)
$14314d11 Nov 2026$6.305/5$3,150$6,750$6,75047%100%hist 89%66%+$852-$20,710153.4%3.9mo$-23,339 (vs do-nothing $-17,865)
$14223d20 Nov 2026$9.055/5$4,525$5,902$5,90247%100%hist 89%66%+$876-$19,835146.9%3.7mo$-22,464 (vs do-nothing $-16,990)
$14312d9 Nov 2026$5.855/5$2,925$7,312$7,31247%100%hist 89%66%+$904-$20,935155.1%3.9mo$-23,564 (vs do-nothing $-18,090)
$1439d6 Nov 2026$5.705/5$2,850$9,500$9,50046%100%hist 89%65%+$1,553-$21,010155.6%3.9mo$-23,639 (vs do-nothing $-18,165)
$14216d13 Nov 2026$7.705/5$3,850$7,219$7,21946%100%hist 89%65%+$982-$20,510151.9%3.8mo$-23,139 (vs do-nothing $-17,665)
$1437d4 Nov 2026$5.005/5$2,500$10,714$10,71445%100%hist 89%64%+$1,460-$21,360158.2%4.0mo$-23,989 (vs do-nothing $-18,515)
$14214d11 Nov 2026$6.105/5$3,050$6,536$6,53644%100%hist 89%64%+$23-$21,310157.9%4.0mo$-23,939 (vs do-nothing $-18,465)
$1435d2 Nov 2026$4.155/5$2,075$12,450$12,45044%100%hist 89%63%+$1,076-$21,785161.4%4.1mo$-24,414 (vs do-nothing $-18,940)
$14212d9 Nov 2026$6.605/5$3,300$8,250$8,25044%100%hist 89%65%+$1,114-$21,060156.0%3.9mo$-23,689 (vs do-nothing $-18,215)
$1429d6 Nov 2026$6.305/5$3,150$10,500$10,50043%100%hist 89%64%+$1,601-$21,210157.1%4.0mo$-23,839 (vs do-nothing $-18,365)
114 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$2007d4 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$2199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$21-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,624 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.507d4 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$2199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$21-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,624 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1957d4 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$2199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$21-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,624 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.507d4 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$4399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$43-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,619 (vs do-nothing +$2,855)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1907d4 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$4399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$43-$3502.6%0.1mo$-2,979 (vs do-nothing +$2,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.507d4 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$21$2199+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$21-$1,60511.9%0.3mo$-4,234 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1857d4 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$4399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$43-$2,85021.1%0.5mo$-5,479 (vs do-nothing $-5)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1909d6 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$83$8399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$83-$3352.5%0.1mo$-2,964 (vs do-nothing +$2,510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.507d4 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$64$6499+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$64-$4,09530.3%0.8mo$-6,724 (vs do-nothing $-1,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.509d6 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$83$8399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$83-$1,58511.7%0.3mo$-4,214 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1807d4 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$86$8699+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$85-$5,34039.6%1.0mo$-7,969 (vs do-nothing $-2,495)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1859d6 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$117$11799+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$116-$2,82520.9%0.5mo$-5,454 (vs do-nothing +$20)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.509d6 Nov 2026$0.075/5$35$117$11799+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$115-$4,07530.2%0.8mo$-6,704 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.507d4 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$43$4399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$41-$6,60048.9%1.2mo$-9,229 (vs do-nothing $-3,755)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1905d2 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$30$3099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$26-$3552.6%0.1mo$-2,984 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$187.505d2 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$30$3099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$24-$1,60511.9%0.3mo$-4,234 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1802d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$75$7599+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$62-$5,35539.7%1.0mo$-7,984 (vs do-nothing $-2,510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1809d6 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$167$16799+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$163-$5,31039.3%1.0mo$-7,939 (vs do-nothing $-2,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1855d2 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$30$3099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$22-$2,85521.2%0.5mo$-5,484 (vs do-nothing $-10)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1757d4 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$107$10799+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$103-$7,83558.0%1.5mo$-10,464 (vs do-nothing $-4,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.502d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$75$7599+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$56-$6,60548.9%1.2mo$-9,234 (vs do-nothing $-3,760)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.505d2 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$30$3099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$20-$4,10530.4%0.8mo$-6,734 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$2009d6 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$50$5099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$40-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,614 (vs do-nothing +$2,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1752d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$75$7599+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$51-$7,85558.2%1.5mo$-10,484 (vs do-nothing $-5,010)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$197.509d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$33$3399+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$22-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,619 (vs do-nothing +$2,855)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1805d2 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$30$3099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$17-$5,35539.7%1.0mo$-7,984 (vs do-nothing $-2,510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.509d6 Nov 2026$0.115/5$55$183$18399+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$176-$6,55548.6%1.2mo$-9,184 (vs do-nothing $-3,710)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.502d30 Oct 2026$0.015/5$5$75$7599%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$47-$9,10567.4%1.7mo$-11,734 (vs do-nothing $-6,260)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1959d6 Nov 2026$0.025/5$10$33$3399%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$20-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,619 (vs do-nothing +$2,855)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.505d2 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$90$9099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$73-$6,59548.9%1.2mo$-9,224 (vs do-nothing $-3,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.507d4 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$64$6499%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$54-$9,09567.4%1.7mo$-11,724 (vs do-nothing $-6,250)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$192.509d6 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$50$5099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$34-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,614 (vs do-nothing +$2,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1702d30 Oct 2026$0.025/5$10$150$15099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$112-$10,35076.7%1.9mo$-12,979 (vs do-nothing $-7,505)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1755d2 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$90$9099%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$68-$7,84558.1%1.5mo$-10,474 (vs do-nothing $-5,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1759d6 Nov 2026$0.155/5$75$250$25099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$236-$7,78557.7%1.5mo$-10,414 (vs do-nothing $-4,940)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20014d11 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$11$1199%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-11-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,624 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.502d30 Oct 2026$0.035/5$15$225$22599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$171-$11,59585.9%2.2mo$-14,224 (vs do-nothing $-8,750)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20012d9 Nov 2026$0.015/5$5$12$1299%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-15-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,624 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.505d2 Nov 2026$0.045/5$20$120$12099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$90-$9,09067.3%1.7mo$-11,719 (vs do-nothing $-6,245)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1707d4 Nov 2026$0.105/5$50$214$21499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$192-$10,31076.4%1.9mo$-12,939 (vs do-nothing $-7,465)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20016d13 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$112$11299%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$81-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,569 (vs do-nothing +$2,905)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1705d2 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$150$15099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$110-$10,33576.6%1.9mo$-12,964 (vs do-nothing $-7,490)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19514d11 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$54$5499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$20-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,604 (vs do-nothing +$2,870)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1652d30 Oct 2026$0.045/5$20$300$30099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$218-$12,84095.1%2.4mo$-15,469 (vs do-nothing $-9,995)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.509d6 Nov 2026$0.195/5$95$317$31799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$289-$9,01566.8%1.7mo$-11,644 (vs do-nothing $-6,170)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1655d2 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$240$24099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$204-$12,82095.0%2.4mo$-15,449 (vs do-nothing $-9,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19512d9 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$38$3899%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%$-7-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,614 (vs do-nothing +$2,860)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19516d13 Nov 2026$0.145/5$70$131$13198%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$87-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,559 (vs do-nothing +$2,915)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.505d2 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$180$18098%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$123-$11,58085.8%2.2mo$-14,209 (vs do-nothing $-8,735)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19014d11 Nov 2026$0.055/5$25$54$5498%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$5-$3352.5%0.1mo$-2,964 (vs do-nothing +$2,510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19012d9 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$38$3898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%$-25-$3452.6%0.1mo$-2,974 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.502d30 Oct 2026$0.065/5$30$450$45098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$315-$14,080104.3%2.6mo$-16,709 (vs do-nothing $-11,235)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18016d13 Nov 2026$0.325/5$160$300$30098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$263-$5,20038.5%1.0mo$-7,829 (vs do-nothing $-2,355)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19016d13 Nov 2026$0.185/5$90$169$16998%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$114-$2702.0%0.1mo$-2,899 (vs do-nothing +$2,575)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$20023d20 Nov 2026$0.245/5$120$157$15798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$106-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,509 (vs do-nothing +$2,965)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1709d6 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$383$38398%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$330-$10,24575.9%1.9mo$-12,874 (vs do-nothing $-7,400)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18512d9 Nov 2026$0.035/5$15$38$3898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%$-43-$2,84521.1%0.5mo$-5,474 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18514d11 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$64$6498%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%$-5-$2,83021.0%0.5mo$-5,459 (vs do-nothing +$15)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19523d20 Nov 2026$0.295/5$145$189$18998%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$124-$00.0%0.0mo$-2,484 (vs do-nothing +$2,990)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$177.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.365/5$180$338$33898%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$280-$6,43047.6%1.2mo$-9,059 (vs do-nothing $-3,585)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18516d13 Nov 2026$0.235/5$115$216$21697%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$130-$2,74520.3%0.5mo$-5,374 (vs do-nothing +$100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1602d30 Oct 2026$0.095/5$45$675$67597%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$437-$15,315113.4%2.9mo$-17,944 (vs do-nothing $-12,470)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18012d9 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$75$7597%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%$-28-$5,33039.5%1.0mo$-7,959 (vs do-nothing $-2,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18014d11 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$64$6497%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%$-35-$5,33039.5%1.0mo$-7,959 (vs do-nothing $-2,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$19023d20 Nov 2026$0.355/5$175$228$22897%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$143-$1851.4%0.0mo$-2,814 (vs do-nothing +$2,660)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.505d2 Nov 2026$0.125/5$60$360$36097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$225-$14,050104.1%2.6mo$-16,679 (vs do-nothing $-11,205)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.509d6 Nov 2026$0.305/5$150$500$50097%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$400-$11,46084.9%2.1mo$-14,089 (vs do-nothing $-8,615)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$182.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.275/5$135$253$25397%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$150-$3,97529.4%0.7mo$-6,604 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17516d13 Nov 2026$0.435/5$215$403$40397%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$314-$7,64556.6%1.4mo$-10,274 (vs do-nothing $-4,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1647d4 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$129$12996%hist 95%7%hist 4%98%$-5-$13,33098.7%2.5mo$-15,959 (vs do-nothing $-10,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17512d9 Nov 2026$0.165/5$80$200$20096%hist 95%7%hist 4%96%+$62-$7,78057.6%1.5mo$-10,409 (vs do-nothing $-4,935)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18523d20 Nov 2026$0.465/5$230$300$30096%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$183-$2,63019.5%0.5mo$-5,259 (vs do-nothing +$215)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17514d11 Nov 2026$0.085/5$40$86$8696%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%$-62-$7,82057.9%1.5mo$-10,449 (vs do-nothing $-4,975)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1637d4 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$129$12996%hist 95%9%hist 4%97%$-46-$13,830102.4%2.6mo$-16,459 (vs do-nothing $-10,985)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.502d30 Oct 2026$0.145/5$70$1,050$1,05096%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$601-$16,540122.5%3.1mo$-19,169 (vs do-nothing $-13,695)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$172.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.515/5$255$478$47896%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$343-$8,85565.6%1.7mo$-11,484 (vs do-nothing $-6,010)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1605d2 Nov 2026$0.185/5$90$540$54096%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$320-$15,270113.1%2.9mo$-17,899 (vs do-nothing $-12,425)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1659d6 Nov 2026$0.405/5$200$667$66795%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$487-$12,66093.8%2.4mo$-15,289 (vs do-nothing $-9,815)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1627d4 Nov 2026$0.065/5$30$129$12995%hist 95%10%hist 13%97%$-99-$14,330106.2%2.7mo$-16,959 (vs do-nothing $-11,485)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18023d20 Nov 2026$0.605/5$300$391$39195%hist 95%11%hist 13%95%+$224-$5,06037.5%0.9mo$-7,689 (vs do-nothing $-2,215)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17014d11 Nov 2026$0.405/5$200$429$42994%hist 95%12%hist 13%94%+$193-$10,16075.3%1.9mo$-12,789 (vs do-nothing $-7,315)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1617d4 Nov 2026$0.095/5$45$193$19394%hist 95%12%hist 13%96%$-102-$14,815109.7%2.8mo$-17,444 (vs do-nothing $-11,970)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.505d2 Nov 2026$0.295/5$145$870$87093%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$484-$16,465122.0%3.1mo$-19,094 (vs do-nothing $-13,620)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.509d6 Nov 2026$0.535/5$265$883$88393%hist 95%14%hist 13%94%+$570-$13,845102.6%2.6mo$-16,474 (vs do-nothing $-11,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17523d20 Nov 2026$0.835/5$415$541$54193%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$291-$7,44555.2%1.4mo$-10,074 (vs do-nothing $-4,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1607d4 Nov 2026$0.435/5$215$921$92193%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$543-$15,145112.2%2.8mo$-17,774 (vs do-nothing $-12,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17016d13 Nov 2026$0.635/5$315$591$59193%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$291-$10,04574.4%1.9mo$-12,674 (vs do-nothing $-7,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1552d30 Oct 2026$0.245/5$120$1,800$1,80093%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$901-$17,740131.4%3.3mo$-20,369 (vs do-nothing $-14,895)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16512d9 Nov 2026$0.435/5$215$538$53892%hist 95%15%hist 13%93%+$201-$12,64593.7%2.4mo$-15,274 (vs do-nothing $-9,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.5016d13 Nov 2026$0.785/5$390$731$73191%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$346-$11,22083.1%2.1mo$-13,849 (vs do-nothing $-8,375)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16514d11 Nov 2026$0.655/5$325$696$69691%hist 95%18%hist 13%92%+$290-$12,53592.9%2.3mo$-15,164 (vs do-nothing $-9,690)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17023d20 Nov 2026$1.175/5$585$763$76390%hist 95%21%hist 23%91%+$372-$9,77572.4%1.8mo$-12,404 (vs do-nothing $-6,930)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1555d2 Nov 2026$0.475/5$235$1,410$1,41089%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$668-$17,625130.6%3.3mo$-20,254 (vs do-nothing $-14,780)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16516d13 Nov 2026$1.005/5$500$938$93889%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$434-$12,36091.6%2.3mo$-14,989 (vs do-nothing $-9,515)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.507d4 Nov 2026$0.645/5$320$1,371$1,37189%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$683-$16,290120.7%3.0mo$-18,919 (vs do-nothing $-13,445)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1609d6 Nov 2026$0.735/5$365$1,217$1,21789%hist 86%22%hist 23%90%+$544-$14,995111.1%2.8mo$-17,624 (vs do-nothing $-12,150)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$167.5023d20 Nov 2026$1.405/5$700$913$91388%hist 86%24%hist 23%89%+$418-$10,91080.8%2.0mo$-13,539 (vs do-nothing $-8,065)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16012d9 Nov 2026$0.835/5$415$1,037$1,03788%hist 86%25%hist 23%89%+$399-$14,945110.7%2.8mo$-17,574 (vs do-nothing $-12,100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.5016d13 Nov 2026$1.235/5$615$1,153$1,15387%hist 86%27%hist 23%88%+$488-$13,495100.0%2.5mo$-16,124 (vs do-nothing $-10,650)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16523d20 Nov 2026$1.695/5$845$1,102$1,10286%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$470-$12,01589.0%2.2mo$-14,644 (vs do-nothing $-9,170)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16014d11 Nov 2026$1.155/5$575$1,232$1,23286%hist 86%29%hist 23%88%+$484-$14,785109.5%2.8mo$-17,414 (vs do-nothing $-11,940)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.509d6 Nov 2026$1.015/5$505$1,683$1,68386%hist 86%30%hist 23%87%+$675-$16,105119.3%3.0mo$-18,734 (vs do-nothing $-13,260)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1557d4 Nov 2026$0.955/5$475$2,036$2,03684%hist 86%32%hist 30%86%+$839-$17,385128.8%3.2mo$-20,014 (vs do-nothing $-14,540)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16016d13 Nov 2026$1.565/5$780$1,462$1,46284%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$575-$14,580108.0%2.7mo$-17,209 (vs do-nothing $-11,735)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$152.505d2 Nov 2026$0.785/5$390$2,340$2,34084%hist 86%33%hist 30%86%+$950-$18,720138.7%3.5mo$-21,349 (vs do-nothing $-15,875)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$162.5023d20 Nov 2026$2.065/5$1,030$1,343$1,34383%hist 86%35%hist 30%86%+$532-$13,08096.9%2.4mo$-15,709 (vs do-nothing $-10,235)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$1559d6 Nov 2026$1.445/5$720$2,400$2,40081%hist 86%39%hist 30%84%+$871-$17,140127.0%3.2mo$-19,769 (vs do-nothing $-14,295)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.5016d13 Nov 2026$1.975/5$985$1,847$1,84780%hist 86%41%hist 40%83%+$653-$15,625115.7%2.9mo$-18,254 (vs do-nothing $-12,780)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16023d20 Nov 2026$2.505/5$1,250$1,630$1,63080%hist 86%41%hist 40%83%+$588-$14,110104.5%2.6mo$-16,739 (vs do-nothing $-11,265)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15512d9 Nov 2026$1.455/5$725$1,812$1,81280%hist 83%41%hist 40%83%+$497-$17,135126.9%3.2mo$-19,764 (vs do-nothing $-14,290)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15514d11 Nov 2026$1.885/5$940$2,014$2,01478%hist 83%45%hist 40%82%+$589-$16,920125.3%3.2mo$-19,549 (vs do-nothing $-14,075)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$157.5023d20 Nov 2026$3.005/5$1,500$1,957$1,95777%hist 83%48%hist 40%81%+$625-$15,110111.9%2.8mo$-17,739 (vs do-nothing $-12,265)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15516d13 Nov 2026$2.515/5$1,255$2,353$2,35376%hist 83%50%hist 40%81%+$745-$16,605123.0%3.1mo$-19,234 (vs do-nothing $-13,760)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15523d20 Nov 2026$3.655/5$1,825$2,380$2,38073%hist 83%57%hist 44%79%+$695-$16,035118.8%3.0mo$-18,664 (vs do-nothing $-13,190)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-29 03:13