FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $745.07

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $745.07 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-09 03:37 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $745.07 UNDERWATER $18.93 (2.5% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $745.07 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$21,060/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$49,296	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,530/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$21,060/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.1 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.1 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $745.07 (probe: $745C 13d) still earns $21,060/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 74 (live) · RSI 64 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 62 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $785.48 (+5%) · daily UBB $756.46 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $753 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($10,530/mo); it brings $10,575/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 11 × $747/8d for $21,161/mo, but breach risk rises to 44% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $760/8d (91% survival, $2,835/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $49,290 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 12 × $753, 74% survival, $10,575/mo (E[net] $1,406/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 8d	12 × $753	74%	$10,575	$1,406

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $1,406/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $753 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $10,575/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $755 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 26% → 20%) for $3,604/mo less (34% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

SPY spot $745.07 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $760

17 Jul

2.0%

91%

18%

$756

$2,835

-$7,740

Sell 12 × $760 2.0% OTM over spot $745.07 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid)

= $756 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,835/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $760)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $760.63)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,825

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,692

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$765 @ 74% POP

63% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.42/sh now → $4.54 mid-life (likely $4.12–$6.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 656 simulated challenges: the $760 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $763 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.59/sh	+$711 cycle +$1,467 [+$460…+$1,328] · 99% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$763	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.79/sh	+$953 cycle +$1,709 [+$370…+$1,614] · 88% credit	71% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$764	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.27/sh	+$323 cycle +$1,079 [-$343…+$903] · 59% credit	72% surv 61%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.03/sh	+$42 cycle +$798 [-$284…+$621] · 55% credit	69% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$765	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$0.23/sh	-$277 cycle +$479 [-$1,030…+$248] · 32% credit	74% surv 63%
budget: banked $756 debit $277 (37% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$479 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $14,103/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,835/mo
vs 50% target ($10,530/mo)	-73%
vs normal income ($21,060/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,835/mo

Downside budget

✓ $760 is at/above CC-SS $745.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$49,290

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $760.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $760)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $752.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $752-760.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$760.00 (1.2σ)	$756	$64,533	+$15,237	+$324
+2.5%	$779.00 (2.8σ)	$-22,044	$60,155	+$10,859	-$4,476
+5%	$798.00 (4.4σ)	$-44,844	$55,778	+$6,482	-$4,476

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $745.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $49,296

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $760): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $49,296 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $49,728 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-432, the opportunity cost of earning $2,835/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

11 × $755

17 Jul

1.3%

80%

40%

$1,859

$6,971

-$3,604

Sell 11 × $755 1.3% OTM over spot $745.07 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.70 mid)

= $1,859 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,971/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $755)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $756.70)

84%

EV / mo

+$3,346

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

36%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,102

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$763 @ 78% POP

71% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.38/sh now → $4.51 mid-life (likely $4.76–$7.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,069 simulated challenges: the $755 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $758 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.71/sh	+$782 cycle +$2,641 [+$378…+$997] · 100% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$758	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.94/sh	+$1,029 cycle +$2,888 [+$267…+$1,164] · 86% credit	71% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$759	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.41/sh	+$451 cycle +$2,310 [-$412…+$527] · 47% credit	72% surv 61%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$756	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.15/sh	+$170 cycle +$2,029 [-$331…+$342] · 44% credit	69% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$763	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$1.42/sh	-$1,557 cycle +$302 [-$2,914…-$1,612] · 2% credit	78% surv 71%
budget: banked $1,859 debit $1,557 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$302 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $9,283/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,971/mo
vs 50% target ($10,530/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($21,060/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,069/mo

Downside budget

✓ $755 is at/above CC-SS $745.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$45,177

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.69 collected) or spot ≥ $756.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $755)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $747.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $747-756.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $756.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$755.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,859	$60,824	+$11,528	+$1,463
+2.5%	$773.87 (2.4σ)	$-18,903	$57,375	+$8,079	-$8,437
+5%	$792.75 (4.0σ)	$-39,666	$53,026	+$3,730	-$8,437

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $745.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $49,296

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $755): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$36

Total Position P&L @ SS: $49,332 (+$36 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $49,728 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-396, the opportunity cost of earning $6,971/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $753

17 Jul

1.1%

74%

45%

$2,820

$10,575

—

Sell 12 × $753 1.1% OTM over spot $745.07 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.35 mid)

= $2,820 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,575/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $753)

74%

Breach risk

26%

POP (stays ≤ $755.36)

80%

EV / mo

+$4,459

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

45%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,577

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$763 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $6.36/sh now → $4.50 mid-life (likely $5.06–$7.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,359 simulated challenges: the $753 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $756 (overshoots $2.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$753	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.76/sh	+$910 cycle +$3,730 [+$393…+$1,092] · 98% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$756	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.99/sh	+$1,190 cycle +$4,010 [+$276…+$1,171] · 86% credit	71% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$757	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.47/sh	+$559 cycle +$3,379 [-$480…+$492] · 47% credit	72% surv 60%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.20/sh	+$243 cycle +$3,063 [-$366…+$329] · 41% credit	69% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$763	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$2.09/sh	-$2,506 cycle +$314 [-$4,391…-$2,863]	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $2,820 debit $2,506 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$314 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $7,887/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,575/mo
vs 50% target ($10,530/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($21,060/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,575/mo

Downside budget

✓ $753 is at/above CC-SS $745.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$49,290

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.35 collected) or spot ≥ $755.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $753)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $745.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $745-755.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $755.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$753.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,820	$59,810	+$10,514	+$2,388
+2.5%	$771.82 (2.2σ)	$-19,770	$55,472	+$6,176	-$10,812
+5%	$790.65 (3.8σ)	$-42,360	$51,135	+$1,839	-$10,812

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $745.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $49,296

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $753): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $49,296 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $49,728 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-432, the opportunity cost of earning $10,575/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

11 × $747

17 Jul

0.3%

56%

89%

$5,643

$21,161

+$10,586

Sell 11 × $747 0.3% OTM over spot $745.07 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $5.14 mid)

= $5,643 credit for the 8d cycle → $21,161/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $747)

56%

Breach risk

44%

POP (stays ≤ $752.14)

70%

EV / mo

+$5,807

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

72%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$735

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$765 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $6.04–$8.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,153 simulated challenges: the $747 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $750 (overshoots $3.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$747	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.90/sh	+$988 cycle +$6,631 [+$394…+$703] · 99% credit	67% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$750	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$1.16/sh	+$1,273 cycle +$6,916 [+$197…+$759] · 84% credit	71% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$748	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.34/sh	+$378 cycle +$6,021 [-$325…+$27] · 28% credit	69% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$752	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.13/sh	+$141 cycle +$5,784 [-$1,205…-$491] · 11% credit	73% surv 63%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$765	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$3.75/sh	-$4,125 cycle +$1,518 [-$7,488…-$5,445]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $5,643 debit $4,125 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,518 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,137/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21,161/mo
vs 50% target ($10,530/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($21,060/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,259/mo

Downside budget

✓ $747 is at/above CC-SS $745.07: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$45,177

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.28/sh (~25% of the $5.13 collected) or spot ≥ $752.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $747)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.46 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $739.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $740-752.14	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $752.14	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$747.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,643	$56,851	+$7,555	+$5,247
+2.5%	$765.67 (1.7σ)	$-14,899	$54,248	+$4,952	-$13,453
+5%	$784.35 (3.3σ)	$-35,442	$49,946	+$650	-$13,453

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $745.07, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $49,296

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $747): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$36

Total Position P&L @ SS: $49,332 (+$36 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $49,728 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-396, the opportunity cost of earning $21,161/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (161 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 161 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.808 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $49,728

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$751	4d	13 Jul 2026	$1.26	12/12	$11,340	$11,340	78%	83%	+$5,723	-$0	0.0%	$50,808 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$752	5d	14 Jul 2026	$1.53	12/12	$11,016	$11,016	78%	82%	+$5,316	-$0	0.0%	$51,132 (vs do-nothing +$1,404)
$752	6d	15 Jul 2026	$1.89	12/12	$11,340	$11,340	75%	81%	+$5,004	-$0	0.0%	$51,564 (vs do-nothing +$1,836)
$753	8d	17 Jul 2026	$2.35	12/12	$10,575	$10,575	74%	80%	+$4,459	-$0	0.0%	$52,116 (vs do-nothing +$2,388)
$751	5d	14 Jul 2026	$1.86	10/12	$11,160	$11,356	74%	80%	+$4,928	-$0	0.0%	$51,228 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$750	4d	13 Jul 2026	$1.59	9/12	$10,732	$11,027	74%	80%	+$4,903	-$0	0.0%	$50,835 (vs do-nothing +$1,107)
$751	6d	15 Jul 2026	$2.25	10/12	$11,250	$11,446	72%	79%	+$4,566	-$0	0.0%	$51,618 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$752	8d	17 Jul 2026	$2.72	11/12	$11,220	$11,318	71%	78%	+$4,427	-$0	0.0%	$52,324 (vs do-nothing +$2,596)
$750	5d	14 Jul 2026	$2.24	8/12	$10,752	$11,145	70%	78%	+$4,351	-$0	0.0%	$51,232 (vs do-nothing +$1,504)
$749	4d	13 Jul 2026	$1.97	8/12	$11,820	$12,213	69%	77%	+$4,841	-$0	0.0%	$51,016 (vs do-nothing +$1,288)
$752	12d	21 Jul 2026	$3.52	12/12	$10,560	$10,560	69%	76%	+$3,769	-$0	0.0%	$53,520 (vs do-nothing +$3,792)
$751	8d	17 Jul 2026	$3.14	9/12	$10,598	$10,892	68%	76%	+$3,883	-$0	0.0%	$52,230 (vs do-nothing +$2,502)
$750	6d	15 Jul 2026	$2.65	8/12	$10,600	$10,993	68%	76%	+$3,944	-$0	0.0%	$51,560 (vs do-nothing +$1,832)

Show 148 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 148.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$750	7d	16 Jul 2026	$3.09	8/12	$10,594	$10,987	67%	76%	+$4,229	-$0	0.0%	$51,912 (vs do-nothing +$2,184)
$751	11d	20 Jul 2026	$3.59	11/12	$10,770	$10,868	67%	75%	+$3,680	-$0	0.0%	$53,281 (vs do-nothing +$3,553)
$749	5d	14 Jul 2026	$2.66	7/12	$11,172	$11,663	66%	75%	+$4,113	-$0	0.0%	$51,338 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$751	12d	21 Jul 2026	$3.97	11/12	$10,918	$11,016	66%	75%	+$3,679	-$0	0.0%	$53,699 (vs do-nothing +$3,971)
$752	15d	24 Jul 2026	$4.79	11/12	$10,538	$10,636	66%	75%	+$3,530	-$0	0.0%	$54,601 (vs do-nothing +$4,873)
$750	8d	17 Jul 2026	$3.59	8/12	$10,770	$11,163	65%	75%	+$3,663	-$0	0.0%	$52,312 (vs do-nothing +$2,584)
$749	6d	15 Jul 2026	$3.10	7/12	$10,850	$11,341	64%	74%	+$3,713	-$0	0.0%	$51,646 (vs do-nothing +$1,918)
$748	4d	13 Jul 2026	$2.40	6/12	$10,800	$11,389	64%	75%	+$3,931	-$0	0.0%	$50,952 (vs do-nothing +$1,224)
$750	11d	20 Jul 2026	$4.05	10/12	$11,045	$11,242	64%	74%	+$3,529	-$0	0.0%	$53,418 (vs do-nothing +$3,690)
$751	15d	24 Jul 2026	$5.27	10/12	$10,540	$10,736	63%	74%	+$3,352	-$0	0.0%	$54,638 (vs do-nothing +$4,910)
$750	12d	21 Jul 2026	$4.44	10/12	$11,100	$11,296	63%	74%	+$3,505	-$0	0.0%	$53,808 (vs do-nothing +$4,080)
$750	13d	22 Jul 2026	$4.86	10/12	$11,215	$11,412	63%	74%	+$4,021	-$0	0.0%	$54,228 (vs do-nothing +$4,500)
$749	8d	17 Jul 2026	$4.07	7/12	$10,684	$11,175	62%	73%	+$3,374	-$0	0.0%	$52,325 (vs do-nothing +$2,597)
$748	5d	14 Jul 2026	$3.12	6/12	$11,232	$11,821	62%	73%	+$3,739	-$0	0.0%	$51,384 (vs do-nothing +$1,656)
$750	15d	24 Jul 2026	$5.77	10/12	$11,540	$11,736	61%	72%	+$3,475	-$0	0.0%	$55,138 (vs do-nothing +$5,410)
$749	11d	20 Jul 2026	$4.54	9/12	$11,144	$11,438	61%	72%	+$3,320	-$0	0.0%	$53,490 (vs do-nothing +$3,762)
$748	6d	15 Jul 2026	$3.58	6/12	$10,740	$11,329	61%	72%	+$3,350	-$0	0.0%	$51,660 (vs do-nothing +$1,932)
$749	12d	21 Jul 2026	$4.95	9/12	$11,138	$11,432	60%	72%	+$3,292	-$0	0.0%	$53,859 (vs do-nothing +$4,131)
$747	4d	13 Jul 2026	$2.88	5/12	$10,800	$11,487	59%	72%	+$3,473	-$0	0.0%	$50,988 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$748	8d	17 Jul 2026	$4.59	7/12	$12,049	$12,540	59%	71%	+$3,541	-$0	0.0%	$52,689 (vs do-nothing +$2,961)
$749	15d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	9/12	$11,340	$11,635	59%	71%	+$3,243	-$0	0.0%	$55,074 (vs do-nothing +$5,346)
$748	11d	20 Jul 2026	$5.07	8/12	$11,062	$11,455	58%	71%	+$3,085	-$0	0.0%	$53,496 (vs do-nothing +$3,768)
$747	5d	14 Jul 2026	$3.63	5/12	$10,890	$11,577	58%	71%	+$3,283	-$0	0.0%	$51,363 (vs do-nothing +$1,635)
$748	12d	21 Jul 2026	$5.48	8/12	$10,960	$11,353	58%	71%	+$3,023	-$0	0.0%	$53,824 (vs do-nothing +$4,096)
$747	6d	15 Jul 2026	$4.10	6/12	$12,300	$12,889	57%	71%	+$3,497	-$0	0.0%	$51,972 (vs do-nothing +$2,244)
$748	15d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	8/12	$10,960	$11,353	57%	70%	+$2,997	-$0	0.0%	$54,920 (vs do-nothing +$5,192)
$747	8d	17 Jul 2026	$5.13	6/12	$11,542	$12,132	56%	70%	+$3,167	-$0	0.0%	$52,590 (vs do-nothing +$2,862)
$747	11d	20 Jul 2026	$5.62	7/12	$10,729	$11,220	56%	70%	+$2,793	-$0	0.0%	$53,410 (vs do-nothing +$3,682)
$747	12d	21 Jul 2026	$6.03	7/12	$10,552	$11,043	55%	70%	+$2,744	-$0	0.0%	$53,697 (vs do-nothing +$3,969)
$746	4d	13 Jul 2026	$3.41	5/12	$12,788	$13,475	55%	70%	+$3,663	-$0	0.0%	$51,253 (vs do-nothing +$1,525)
$747	15d	24 Jul 2026	$7.42	8/12	$11,872	$12,265	55%	69%	+$3,096	-$0	0.0%	$55,376 (vs do-nothing +$5,648)
$746	5d	14 Jul 2026	$4.18	5/12	$12,540	$13,227	54%	69%	+$3,437	-$0	0.0%	$51,638 (vs do-nothing +$1,910)
$746	6d	15 Jul 2026	$4.66	5/12	$11,650	$12,337	54%	69%	+$3,025	-$0	0.0%	$51,878 (vs do-nothing +$2,150)
$746	8d	17 Jul 2026	$5.70	5/12	$10,688	$11,375	53%	69%	+$2,734	-$0	0.0%	$52,398 (vs do-nothing +$2,670)
$746	11d	20 Jul 2026	$6.19	7/12	$11,817	$12,308	53%	68%	+$2,861	-$0	0.0%	$53,809 (vs do-nothing +$4,081)
$746	12d	21 Jul 2026	$6.62	7/12	$11,585	$12,076	53%	68%	+$2,837	-$0	0.0%	$54,110 (vs do-nothing +$4,382)
$746	15d	24 Jul 2026	$8.01	7/12	$11,214	$11,705	52%	68%	+$2,755	-$0	0.0%	$55,083 (vs do-nothing +$5,355)
$745	15d	24 Jul 2026	$8.63	7/12	$12,082	$12,573	50%	67%	+$2,794	-$0	0.0%	$55,471 (vs do-nothing +$5,743)
$745	12d	21 Jul 2026	$7.22	6/12	$10,830	$11,419	50%	67%	+$2,452	-$0	0.0%	$53,805 (vs do-nothing +$4,077)
$745	11d	20 Jul 2026	$6.80	6/12	$11,127	$11,716	50%	67%	+$2,498	-$0	0.0%	$53,553 (vs do-nothing +$3,825)
$745	13d	22 Jul 2026	$7.67	6/12	$10,620	$11,209	50%	69%	+$3,374	-$0	0.0%	$54,075 (vs do-nothing +$4,347)
$745	8d	17 Jul 2026	$6.31	5/12	$11,831	$12,519	50%	67%	+$2,786	-$0	0.0%	$52,670 (vs do-nothing +$2,942)
$745	7d	16 Jul 2026	$5.73	5/12	$12,279	$12,966	50%	67%	+$2,812	-$0	0.0%	$52,380 (vs do-nothing +$2,652)
$745	6d	15 Jul 2026	$5.25	5/12	$13,125	$13,812	50%	67%	+$3,078	-$0	0.0%	$52,140 (vs do-nothing +$2,412)
$745	5d	14 Jul 2026	$4.76	4/12	$11,424	$12,209	50%	67%	+$2,789	-$0	0.0%	$51,462 (vs do-nothing +$1,734)
$745	4d	13 Jul 2026	$3.99	4/12	$11,970	$12,755	50%	68%	+$3,001	-$0	0.0%	$51,154 (vs do-nothing +$1,426)
$744	15d	24 Jul 2026	$9.19	6/12	$11,028	$11,617	48%	67%	+$2,376	-$0	0.0%	$54,387 (vs do-nothing +$4,659)
$744	12d	21 Jul 2026	$7.81	6/12	$11,715	$12,304	48%	66%	+$2,443	-$0	0.0%	$53,559 (vs do-nothing +$3,831)
$744	11d	20 Jul 2026	$7.41	6/12	$12,125	$12,715	48%	66%	+$2,518	-$0	0.0%	$53,319 (vs do-nothing +$3,591)
$744	8d	17 Jul 2026	$6.89	5/12	$12,919	$13,606	47%	66%	+$2,786	-$0	0.0%	$52,460 (vs do-nothing +$2,732)
$744	6d	15 Jul 2026	$5.87	4/12	$11,740	$12,525	47%	66%	+$2,540	-$0	0.0%	$51,506 (vs do-nothing +$1,778)
$743	15d	24 Jul 2026	$9.88	6/12	$11,856	$12,445	46%	66%	+$2,469	-$0	0.0%	$54,201 (vs do-nothing +$4,473)
$744	5d	14 Jul 2026	$5.37	4/12	$12,888	$13,673	46%	66%	+$2,824	-$0	0.0%	$51,306 (vs do-nothing +$1,578)
$743	12d	21 Jul 2026	$8.43	5/12	$10,538	$11,225	46%	65%	+$2,030	-$0	0.0%	$52,730 (vs do-nothing +$3,002)
$744	4d	13 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/12	$13,800	$14,585	45%	66%	+$3,047	-$0	0.0%	$50,998 (vs do-nothing +$1,270)
$743	11d	20 Jul 2026	$8.04	5/12	$10,964	$11,651	45%	65%	+$2,105	-$0	0.0%	$52,535 (vs do-nothing +$2,807)
$743	8d	17 Jul 2026	$7.55	4/12	$11,325	$12,110	45%	65%	+$2,279	-$0	0.0%	$51,778 (vs do-nothing +$2,050)
$742	15d	24 Jul 2026	$10.51	6/12	$12,612	$13,201	44%	65%	+$2,454	-$0	0.0%	$53,979 (vs do-nothing +$4,251)
$743	6d	15 Jul 2026	$6.48	4/12	$12,960	$13,745	44%	65%	+$2,486	-$0	0.0%	$51,350 (vs do-nothing +$1,622)
$742	12d	21 Jul 2026	$9.13	5/12	$11,413	$12,100	43%	64%	+$2,091	-$0	0.0%	$52,580 (vs do-nothing +$2,852)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-09 03:37