FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $746.47

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $746.47 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-09 21:37 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $746.47 UNDERWATER $17.53 (2.3% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $746.47 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$19,414/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$50,784	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,707/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$19,414/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $746.47 (probe: $745C 14d) still earns $19,414/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 75 (live) · RSI 64 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 54 · %B 65 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $785.73 (+5%) · daily UBB $755.52 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $755 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($9,707/mo); it brings $10,395/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $750/8d for $20,475/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $762/8d (91% survival, $2,835/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $50,766 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 12 × $755, 75% survival, $10,395/mo (E[net] $910/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 8d	12 × $755	75%	$10,395	$910

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $910/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $755 (primary), 75% survival, breach 25%, $10,395/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $757 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 25% → 19%) for $3,506/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $757 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $746.47 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $762

17 Jul

2.1%

91%

17%

$756

$2,835

-$7,560

Sell 12 × $762 2.1% OTM over spot $746.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid)

= $756 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,835/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $762)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $762.63)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,815

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

20%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,076

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$768 @ 75% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.87/sh now → $4.86 mid-life (likely $4.53–$7.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 605 simulated challenges: the $762 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $765 (overshoots $3.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$762	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.53/sh	+$639 cycle +$1,395 [+$329…+$1,281] · 94% credit	68% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$766	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.63/sh	+$756 cycle +$1,512 [+$55…+$1,304] · 78% credit	72% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$763	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.23/sh	+$279 cycle +$1,035 [-$57…+$881] · 70% credit	69% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$767	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.09/sh	+$106 cycle +$862 [-$710…+$581] · 43% credit	74% surv 62%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$768	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$0.42/sh	-$505 cycle +$251 [-$1,454…-$89] · 23% credit	75% surv 65%
budget: banked $756 debit $505 (67% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$251 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $14,531/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,835/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,835/mo

Downside budget

✓ $762 is at/above CC-SS $746.47: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$50,778

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $762.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $762)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $755.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $754.38	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $754-762.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $762.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$762.00 (1.2σ)	$756	$66,561	+$15,777	+$60
+2.5%	$781.05 (2.8σ)	$-22,104	$62,126	+$11,342	-$2,340
+5%	$800.10 (4.3σ)	$-44,964	$57,691	+$6,907	-$2,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $746.47, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $50,784

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $762): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $50,784 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $51,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-696, the opportunity cost of earning $2,835/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

11 × $757

17 Jul

1.4%

81%

38%

$1,837

$6,889

-$3,506

Sell 11 × $757 1.4% OTM over spot $746.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.68 mid)

= $1,837 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,889/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $757)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $758.68)

84%

EV / mo

+$3,478

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,474

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$766 @ 79% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.83/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $5.04–$7.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,115 simulated challenges: the $757 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $760 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$757	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.66/sh	+$722 cycle +$2,559 [+$267…+$1,043] · 95% credit	68% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$761	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.78/sh	+$860 cycle +$2,697 [+$57…+$1,069] · 77% credit	72% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.36/sh	+$395 cycle +$2,232 [-$85…+$658] · 66% credit	69% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$762	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$263 cycle +$2,100 [-$659…+$417] · 38% credit	74% surv 62%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$766	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$1.63/sh	-$1,789 cycle +$48 [-$3,229…-$1,843] · 2% credit	79% surv 72%
budget: banked $1,837 debit $1,789 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $9,606/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,889/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,047/mo

Downside budget

✓ $757 is at/above CC-SS $746.47: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$46,541

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $758.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $757)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $755.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $749.43	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $749-758.68	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $758.68	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$757.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,837	$62,864	+$12,080	+$1,199
+2.5%	$775.92 (2.4σ)	$-18,980	$59,158	+$8,374	-$6,501
+5%	$794.85 (3.9σ)	$-39,798	$54,752	+$3,968	-$6,501

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $746.47, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $50,784

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $757): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$58

Total Position P&L @ SS: $50,842 (+$58 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $51,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-638, the opportunity cost of earning $6,889/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $755

17 Jul

1.1%

75%

44%

$2,772

$10,395

—

Sell 12 × $755 1.1% OTM over spot $746.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.33 mid)

= $2,772 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,395/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $755)

75%

Breach risk

25%

POP (stays ≤ $757.33)

81%

EV / mo

+$4,647

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

44%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,007

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$765 @ 81% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $6.81/sh now → $4.82 mid-life (likely $5.29–$7.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,313 simulated challenges: the $755 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $758 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.71/sh	+$846 cycle +$3,618 [+$298…+$1,062] · 96% credit	68% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$759	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.84/sh	+$1,010 cycle +$3,782 [+$74…+$1,096] · 79% credit	72% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$756	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.41/sh	+$491 cycle +$3,263 [-$86…+$686] · 67% credit	69% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$760	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.30/sh	+$358 cycle +$3,130 [-$712…+$349] · 36% credit	74% surv 62%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$765	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$1.97/sh	-$2,360 cycle +$412 [-$4,147…-$2,612]	81% surv 75%
budget: banked $2,772 debit $2,360 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$412 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $9,323/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,395/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,395/mo

Downside budget

✓ $755 is at/above CC-SS $746.47: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$50,766

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.31 collected) or spot ≥ $757.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $755)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $755.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $747.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $747-757.33	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $757.33	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$755.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,772	$61,806	+$11,022	+$2,076
+2.5%	$773.87 (2.2σ)	$-19,878	$57,412	+$6,628	-$8,724
+5%	$792.75 (3.7σ)	$-42,528	$53,018	+$2,234	-$8,724

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $746.47, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $50,784

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $755): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $50,784 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $51,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-696, the opportunity cost of earning $10,395/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $750

17 Jul

0.5%

61%

79%

$5,460

$20,475

+$10,080

Sell 12 × $750 0.5% OTM over spot $746.47 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.56 mid)

= $5,460 credit for the 8d cycle → $20,475/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $750)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $754.57)

73%

EV / mo

+$6,739

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

66%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$281

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$767 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $6.77/sh now → $4.78 mid-life (likely $6.26–$8.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,967 simulated challenges: the $750 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $753 (overshoots $3.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$750	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.83/sh	+$992 cycle +$6,452 [+$289…+$731] · 95% credit	68% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$754	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.99/sh	+$1,188 cycle +$6,648 [-$25…+$686] · 74% credit	72% surv 59%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$751	20 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.53/sh	+$639 cycle +$6,099 [-$94…+$355] · 63% credit	69% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$755	24 Jul 2026	11d left	+$0.45/sh	+$536 cycle +$5,996 [-$830…-$14] · 24% credit	74% surv 62%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$767	24 Jul 2026	11d left	-$3.76/sh	-$4,515 cycle +$945 [-$7,919…-$5,784]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $5,460 debit $4,515 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$945 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,343/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$20,475/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	+111%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$20,475/mo

Downside budget

✓ $750 is at/above CC-SS $746.47: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$50,766

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.14/sh (~25% of the $4.55 collected) or spot ≥ $754.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $750)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $755.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $742.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $742-754.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $754.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$750.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,460	$59,658	+$8,874	+$4,764
+2.5%	$768.75 (1.8σ)	$-17,040	$55,293	+$4,509	-$12,036
+5%	$787.50 (3.3σ)	$-39,540	$50,928	+$144	-$12,036

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $746.47, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $50,784

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $750): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $50,784 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $51,480 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-696, the opportunity cost of earning $20,475/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (197 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 197 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.806 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $51,480

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$753	4d	13 Jul 2026	$1.14	12/12	$10,260	$10,260	80%	84%	+$5,292	-$0	0.0%	$52,152 (vs do-nothing +$672)
$754	5d	14 Jul 2026	$1.44	12/12	$10,368	$10,368	79%	84%	+$5,231	-$0	0.0%	$52,512 (vs do-nothing +$1,032)
$755	7d	16 Jul 2026	$1.89	12/12	$9,720	$9,720	78%	82%	+$4,653	-$0	0.0%	$53,052 (vs do-nothing +$1,572)
$754	6d	15 Jul 2026	$1.85	11/12	$10,175	$10,333	77%	82%	+$4,821	-$0	0.0%	$52,877 (vs do-nothing +$1,397)
$752	4d	13 Jul 2026	$1.47	9/12	$9,922	$10,397	76%	81%	+$4,738	-$0	0.0%	$52,281 (vs do-nothing +$801)
$753	5d	14 Jul 2026	$1.76	10/12	$10,560	$10,876	76%	81%	+$4,930	-$0	0.0%	$52,660 (vs do-nothing +$1,180)
$755	8d	17 Jul 2026	$2.31	12/12	$10,395	$10,395	75%	81%	+$4,647	-$0	0.0%	$53,556 (vs do-nothing +$2,076)
$753	6d	15 Jul 2026	$2.21	9/12	$9,945	$10,420	73%	80%	+$4,408	-$0	0.0%	$52,947 (vs do-nothing +$1,467)
$754	8d	17 Jul 2026	$2.69	10/12	$10,088	$10,404	73%	79%	+$4,256	-$0	0.0%	$53,590 (vs do-nothing +$2,110)
$752	5d	14 Jul 2026	$2.13	8/12	$10,224	$10,857	72%	79%	+$4,406	-$0	0.0%	$52,720 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)
$751	4d	13 Jul 2026	$1.84	8/12	$11,040	$11,673	71%	79%	+$4,768	-$0	0.0%	$52,488 (vs do-nothing +$1,008)
$756	15d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	12/12	$9,840	$9,840	71%	79%	+$4,226	-$0	0.0%	$55,704 (vs do-nothing +$4,224)
$754	11d	20 Jul 2026	$3.15	12/12	$10,309	$10,309	71%	78%	+$4,212	-$0	0.0%	$54,564 (vs do-nothing +$3,084)

Show 184 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 184.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$755	13d	22 Jul 2026	$3.67	12/12	$10,163	$10,163	71%	78%	+$4,287	-$0	0.0%	$55,188 (vs do-nothing +$3,708)
$755	14d	23 Jul 2026	$4.11	12/12	$10,569	$10,569	70%	78%	+$4,463	-$0	0.0%	$55,716 (vs do-nothing +$4,236)
$752	6d	15 Jul 2026	$2.61	8/12	$10,440	$11,073	70%	78%	+$4,311	-$0	0.0%	$53,104 (vs do-nothing +$1,624)
$754	12d	21 Jul 2026	$3.61	11/12	$9,928	$10,086	70%	78%	+$4,115	-$0	0.0%	$54,813 (vs do-nothing +$3,333)
$753	8d	17 Jul 2026	$3.10	9/12	$10,462	$10,937	70%	77%	+$4,186	-$0	0.0%	$53,748 (vs do-nothing +$2,268)
$755	15d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	11/12	$10,010	$10,168	69%	77%	+$4,130	-$0	0.0%	$55,847 (vs do-nothing +$4,367)
$754	13d	22 Jul 2026	$4.11	11/12	$10,433	$10,591	69%	77%	+$4,205	-$0	0.0%	$55,363 (vs do-nothing +$3,883)
$753	11d	20 Jul 2026	$3.58	10/12	$9,764	$10,080	68%	77%	+$3,765	-$0	0.0%	$54,480 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)
$751	5d	14 Jul 2026	$2.55	7/12	$10,710	$11,501	68%	77%	+$4,266	-$0	0.0%	$52,859 (vs do-nothing +$1,379)
$753	12d	21 Jul 2026	$4.06	10/12	$10,150	$10,466	67%	76%	+$3,984	-$0	0.0%	$54,960 (vs do-nothing +$3,480)
$750	4d	13 Jul 2026	$2.28	6/12	$10,260	$11,209	67%	76%	+$4,074	-$0	0.0%	$52,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,020)
$754	15d	24 Jul 2026	$5.01	10/12	$10,020	$10,336	67%	76%	+$3,950	-$0	0.0%	$55,910 (vs do-nothing +$4,430)
$752	8d	17 Jul 2026	$3.55	8/12	$10,650	$11,283	67%	76%	+$3,978	-$0	0.0%	$53,856 (vs do-nothing +$2,376)
$751	6d	15 Jul 2026	$3.06	7/12	$10,710	$11,501	66%	76%	+$4,128	-$0	0.0%	$53,216 (vs do-nothing +$1,736)
$753	13d	22 Jul 2026	$4.58	10/12	$10,569	$10,886	66%	76%	+$4,218	-$0	0.0%	$55,480 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)
$752	11d	20 Jul 2026	$4.05	9/12	$9,941	$10,415	65%	75%	+$3,627	-$0	0.0%	$54,603 (vs do-nothing +$3,123)
$752	12d	21 Jul 2026	$4.55	9/12	$10,238	$10,712	65%	75%	+$3,817	-$0	0.0%	$55,053 (vs do-nothing +$3,573)
$753	15d	24 Jul 2026	$5.51	9/12	$9,918	$10,393	65%	75%	+$3,751	-$0	0.0%	$55,917 (vs do-nothing +$4,437)
$750	5d	14 Jul 2026	$3.01	6/12	$10,836	$11,785	64%	75%	+$3,976	-$0	0.0%	$52,938 (vs do-nothing +$1,458)
$752	13d	22 Jul 2026	$5.07	9/12	$10,530	$11,005	64%	74%	+$3,841	-$0	0.0%	$55,521 (vs do-nothing +$4,041)
$751	8d	17 Jul 2026	$4.03	7/12	$10,579	$11,370	64%	74%	+$3,701	-$0	0.0%	$53,895 (vs do-nothing +$2,415)
$750	6d	15 Jul 2026	$3.54	6/12	$10,620	$11,569	63%	74%	+$3,790	-$0	0.0%	$53,256 (vs do-nothing +$1,776)
$751	11d	20 Jul 2026	$4.54	8/12	$9,905	$10,538	63%	74%	+$3,400	-$0	0.0%	$54,648 (vs do-nothing +$3,168)
$752	15d	24 Jul 2026	$6.03	9/12	$10,854	$11,329	62%	74%	+$3,932	-$0	0.0%	$56,385 (vs do-nothing +$4,905)
$751	12d	21 Jul 2026	$5.06	8/12	$10,120	$10,753	62%	74%	+$3,571	-$0	0.0%	$55,064 (vs do-nothing +$3,584)
$750	7d	16 Jul 2026	$4.01	6/12	$10,311	$11,261	62%	73%	+$3,527	-$0	0.0%	$53,538 (vs do-nothing +$2,058)
$749	4d	13 Jul 2026	$2.76	5/12	$10,350	$11,457	62%	73%	+$3,255	-$0	0.0%	$52,570 (vs do-nothing +$1,090)
$751	13d	22 Jul 2026	$5.60	8/12	$10,338	$10,971	61%	73%	+$3,600	-$0	0.0%	$55,496 (vs do-nothing +$4,016)
$750	8d	17 Jul 2026	$4.55	6/12	$10,238	$11,187	61%	73%	+$3,369	-$0	0.0%	$53,862 (vs do-nothing +$2,382)
$751	15d	24 Jul 2026	$6.57	8/12	$10,512	$11,145	60%	73%	+$3,643	-$0	0.0%	$56,272 (vs do-nothing +$4,792)
$749	5d	14 Jul 2026	$3.51	5/12	$10,530	$11,637	60%	73%	+$3,549	-$0	0.0%	$52,945 (vs do-nothing +$1,465)
$750	11d	20 Jul 2026	$5.07	8/12	$11,062	$11,695	60%	72%	+$3,584	-$0	0.0%	$55,072 (vs do-nothing +$3,592)
$750	12d	21 Jul 2026	$5.61	7/12	$9,818	$10,608	59%	72%	+$3,292	-$0	0.0%	$55,001 (vs do-nothing +$3,521)
$749	6d	15 Jul 2026	$4.07	5/12	$10,175	$11,282	59%	72%	+$3,376	-$0	0.0%	$53,225 (vs do-nothing +$1,745)
$750	13d	22 Jul 2026	$6.15	7/12	$9,935	$10,726	59%	72%	+$3,294	-$0	0.0%	$55,379 (vs do-nothing +$3,899)
$750	14d	23 Jul 2026	$6.65	7/12	$9,975	$10,766	58%	72%	+$3,319	-$0	0.0%	$55,729 (vs do-nothing +$4,249)
$750	15d	24 Jul 2026	$7.14	7/12	$9,996	$10,787	58%	72%	+$3,333	-$0	0.0%	$56,072 (vs do-nothing +$4,592)
$749	8d	17 Jul 2026	$5.10	6/12	$11,475	$12,424	58%	71%	+$3,569	-$0	0.0%	$54,192 (vs do-nothing +$2,712)
$748	4d	13 Jul 2026	$3.29	4/12	$9,870	$11,135	57%	71%	+$3,240	-$0	0.0%	$52,564 (vs do-nothing +$1,084)
$749	11d	20 Jul 2026	$5.63	7/12	$10,748	$11,539	57%	71%	+$3,288	-$0	0.0%	$55,015 (vs do-nothing +$3,535)
$749	12d	21 Jul 2026	$6.18	7/12	$10,815	$11,606	57%	71%	+$3,437	-$0	0.0%	$55,400 (vs do-nothing +$3,920)
$749	13d	22 Jul 2026	$6.72	7/12	$10,855	$11,646	56%	71%	+$3,420	-$0	0.0%	$55,778 (vs do-nothing +$4,298)
$748	5d	14 Jul 2026	$4.06	4/12	$9,744	$11,009	56%	71%	+$3,022	-$0	0.0%	$52,872 (vs do-nothing +$1,392)
$749	15d	24 Jul 2026	$7.72	7/12	$10,808	$11,599	56%	71%	+$3,451	-$0	0.0%	$56,478 (vs do-nothing +$4,998)
$748	6d	15 Jul 2026	$4.63	5/12	$11,575	$12,682	56%	71%	+$3,554	-$0	0.0%	$53,505 (vs do-nothing +$2,025)
$748	8d	17 Jul 2026	$5.68	5/12	$10,650	$11,757	55%	70%	+$3,131	-$0	0.0%	$54,030 (vs do-nothing +$2,550)
$748	11d	20 Jul 2026	$6.21	6/12	$10,162	$11,111	54%	70%	+$2,925	-$0	0.0%	$54,858 (vs do-nothing +$3,378)
$748	12d	21 Jul 2026	$6.78	6/12	$10,170	$11,119	54%	70%	+$3,068	-$0	0.0%	$55,200 (vs do-nothing +$3,720)
$748	13d	22 Jul 2026	$7.32	6/12	$10,135	$11,084	54%	70%	+$3,040	-$0	0.0%	$55,524 (vs do-nothing +$4,044)
$748	15d	24 Jul 2026	$8.34	6/12	$10,008	$10,957	54%	70%	+$3,059	-$0	0.0%	$56,136 (vs do-nothing +$4,656)
$747	4d	13 Jul 2026	$3.87	4/12	$11,610	$12,875	53%	69%	+$3,430	-$0	0.0%	$52,796 (vs do-nothing +$1,316)
$747	5d	14 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/12	$11,160	$12,425	52%	69%	+$3,183	-$0	0.0%	$53,108 (vs do-nothing +$1,628)
$747	6d	15 Jul 2026	$5.22	4/12	$10,440	$11,705	52%	69%	+$2,958	-$0	0.0%	$53,336 (vs do-nothing +$1,856)
$747	8d	17 Jul 2026	$6.29	5/12	$11,794	$12,901	52%	69%	+$3,243	-$0	0.0%	$54,335 (vs do-nothing +$2,855)
$747	11d	20 Jul 2026	$6.82	6/12	$11,160	$12,109	52%	69%	+$3,027	-$0	0.0%	$55,224 (vs do-nothing +$3,744)
$747	12d	21 Jul 2026	$7.40	6/12	$11,100	$12,049	52%	69%	+$3,173	-$0	0.0%	$55,572 (vs do-nothing +$4,092)
$747	13d	22 Jul 2026	$7.95	6/12	$11,008	$11,957	52%	69%	+$3,150	-$0	0.0%	$55,902 (vs do-nothing +$4,422)
$747	15d	24 Jul 2026	$8.96	6/12	$10,752	$11,701	52%	69%	+$3,118	-$0	0.0%	$56,508 (vs do-nothing +$5,028)
$746	15d	24 Jul 2026	$9.52	6/12	$11,424	$12,373	50%	68%	+$3,103	-$0	0.0%	$56,562 (vs do-nothing +$5,082)
$746	13d	22 Jul 2026	$8.16	6/12	$11,298	$12,248	49%	68%	+$2,639	-$0	0.0%	$55,746 (vs do-nothing +$4,266)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-09 21:37