FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $751.59

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.59 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-10 01:46 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $751.59 UNDERWATER $12.41 (1.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.59 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$19,774/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$55,662	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,887/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$19,774/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $751.59 (probe: $752C 14d) still earns $19,774/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 64 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 57 · %B 82 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $785.87 (+5%) · daily UBB $756.37 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $759 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($9,887/mo); it brings $10,029/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $754/7d for $21,343/mo, but breach risk rises to 41% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $765/7d (92% survival, $2,880/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $55,650 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 12 × $759, 76% survival, $10,029/mo (E[net] $2,544/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	12 × $759	76%	$10,029	$2,544

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $2,544/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $759 (primary), 76% survival, breach 24%, $10,029/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $761 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 24% → 18%) for $3,086/mo less (31% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $761 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $751.59 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $765

17 Jul

1.8%

92%

16%

$672

$2,880

-$7,149

Sell 12 × $765 1.8% OTM over spot $751.59 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.56 mid)

= $672 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,880/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $765)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $765.57)

93%

EV / mo

+$1,980

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,128

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 79% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.66/sh now → $4.00 mid-life (likely $3.80–$6.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 457 simulated challenges: the $765 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $768 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.65/sh	+$783 cycle +$1,455 [+$381…+$1,222] · 90% credit	69% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$482 cycle +$1,154 [+$2…+$880] · 75% credit	69% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$773	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.80/sh	+$956 cycle +$1,628 [-$332…+$1,262] · 66% credit	76% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.37/sh	+$447 cycle +$1,119 [-$925…+$736] · 46% credit	77% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.41/sh	-$487 cycle +$185 [-$2,053…-$250] · 21% credit	79% surv 73%
budget: banked $672 debit $487 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$185 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $7,188/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,880/mo
vs 50% target ($9,887/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($19,774/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,880/mo

Downside budget

✓ $765 is at/above CC-SS $751.59: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,656

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $765.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $765)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $757.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $757-765.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $765.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$765.00 (1.2σ)	$672	$69,422	+$13,760	+$696
+2.5%	$784.12 (3.0σ)	$-22,278	$65,130	+$9,468	+$696
+5%	$803.25 (4.7σ)	$-45,228	$60,838	+$5,176	+$696

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,662

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $765): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,662 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,176, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

12 × $761

17 Jul

1.3%

82%

35%

$1,620

$6,943

-$3,086

Sell 12 × $761 1.3% OTM over spot $751.59 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.35 mid)

= $1,620 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,943/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $761)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $762.36)

86%

EV / mo

+$3,824

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

29%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,155

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $5.63/sh now → $3.98 mid-life (likely $3.97–$6.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 873 simulated challenges: the $761 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $763 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.75/sh	+$898 cycle +$2,518 [+$386…+$1,187] · 90% credit	69% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.50/sh	+$596 cycle +$2,216 [+$13…+$824] · 76% credit	69% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,114 cycle +$2,734 [-$261…+$1,261] · 67% credit	76% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.10/sh	+$119 cycle +$1,739 [-$1,423…+$230] · 31% credit	78% surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.28/sh	-$1,535 cycle +$85 [-$3,420…-$1,479] · 5% credit	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $1,620 debit $1,535 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,400/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,943/mo
vs 50% target ($9,887/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($19,774/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,943/mo

Downside budget

✓ $761 is at/above CC-SS $751.59: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,656

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.35 collected) or spot ≥ $762.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $761)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $753.39	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $753-762.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $762.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$761.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,620	$66,467	+$10,805	+$444
+2.5%	$780.02 (2.6σ)	$-21,210	$62,198	+$6,536	-$3,156
+5%	$799.05 (4.3σ)	$-44,040	$57,929	+$2,267	-$3,156

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,662

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $761): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,662 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,176, the opportunity cost of earning $6,943/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $759

17 Jul

1.0%

76%

37%

$2,340

$10,029

—

Sell 12 × $759 1.0% OTM over spot $751.59 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.96 mid)

= $2,340 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,029/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $759)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $760.96)

81%

EV / mo

+$4,766

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,423

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $5.61/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $4.37–$6.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,100 simulated challenges: the $759 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $761 (overshoots $2.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.80/sh	+$955 cycle +$3,295 [+$389…+$1,035] · 92% credit	69% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.54/sh	+$653 cycle +$2,993 [+$25…+$683] · 77% credit	69% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$767	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.99/sh	+$1,192 cycle +$3,532 [-$213…+$1,006] · 68% credit	76% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.16/sh	+$195 cycle +$2,535 [-$1,377…-$32] · 24% credit	78% surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.77/sh	-$2,125 cycle +$215 [-$4,147…-$2,455] · 1% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $2,340 debit $2,125 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$215 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,396/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,029/mo
vs 50% target ($9,887/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($19,774/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,029/mo

Downside budget

✓ $759 is at/above CC-SS $751.59: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,650

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot ≥ $760.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $759)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $751.41	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $751-760.96	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.96	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$759.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,340	$65,236	+$9,574	+$1,164
+2.5%	$777.97 (2.4σ)	$-20,430	$60,978	+$5,316	-$4,836
+5%	$796.95 (4.1σ)	$-43,200	$56,720	+$1,058	-$4,836

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,662

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $759): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,662 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,176, the opportunity cost of earning $10,029/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $754

17 Jul

0.3%

59%

83%

$4,980

$21,343

+$11,314

Sell 12 × $754 0.3% OTM over spot $751.59 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.16 mid)

= $4,980 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,343/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $754)

59%

Breach risk

41%

POP (stays ≤ $758.16)

72%

EV / mo

+$6,972

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

66%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$249

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $5.58/sh now → $3.94 mid-life (likely $5.19–$7.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,970 simulated challenges: the $754 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $757 (overshoots $2.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.91/sh	+$1,096 cycle +$6,076 [+$309…+$777] · 91% credit	69% surv 50%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$761	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.61/sh	+$1,927 cycle +$6,907 [+$116…+$1,225] · 77% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$764	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.32/sh	+$384 cycle +$5,364 [-$1,719…-$425] · 15% credit	78% surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.09/sh	+$104 cycle +$5,084 [-$909…-$300] · 13% credit	71% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.84/sh	-$3,405 cycle +$1,575 [-$6,612…-$4,582]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $4,980 debit $3,405 (68% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,575 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,210/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21,343/mo
vs 50% target ($9,887/mo)	+116%
vs normal income ($19,774/mo)	108% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,343/mo

Downside budget

✓ $754 is at/above CC-SS $751.59: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,650

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.04/sh (~25% of the $4.15 collected) or spot ≥ $758.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $754)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $746.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $746-758.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $758.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$754.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,980	$62,998	+$7,336	+$3,804
+2.5%	$772.85 (1.9σ)	$-17,640	$58,768	+$3,106	-$8,196
+5%	$791.70 (3.7σ)	$-40,260	$54,538	-$1,124	-$8,196

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.59, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,662

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $754): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,662 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,838 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,176, the opportunity cost of earning $21,343/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (187 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 187 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.813 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $56,838

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.35	10/12	$10,125	$10,713	78%	83%	+$5,375	-$0	0.0%	$57,208 (vs do-nothing +$370)
$759	7d	17 Jul 2026	$1.95	12/12	$10,029	$10,029	76%	81%	+$4,766	-$0	0.0%	$58,002 (vs do-nothing +$1,164)
$758	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.42	12/12	$10,224	$10,224	76%	80%	+$3,495	-$0	0.0%	$57,366 (vs do-nothing +$528)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.31	10/12	$9,900	$10,488	73%	79%	+$4,385	-$0	0.0%	$58,168 (vs do-nothing +$1,330)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.69	8/12	$10,140	$11,316	73%	80%	+$4,842	-$0	0.0%	$57,406 (vs do-nothing +$568)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.76	10/12	$10,560	$11,148	72%	78%	+$3,596	-$0	0.0%	$57,618 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.71	9/12	$10,453	$11,335	69%	77%	+$4,319	-$0	0.0%	$58,395 (vs do-nothing +$1,557)
$758	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.13	12/12	$10,244	$10,244	69%	77%	+$4,007	-$0	0.0%	$59,418 (vs do-nothing +$2,580)
$758	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.78	12/12	$10,008	$10,008	69%	76%	+$2,905	-$0	0.0%	$58,998 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.15	8/12	$10,320	$11,496	68%	76%	+$3,474	-$0	0.0%	$57,774 (vs do-nothing +$936)
$759	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.01	12/12	$10,311	$10,311	68%	77%	+$3,868	-$0	0.0%	$60,474 (vs do-nothing +$3,636)
$758	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.60	11/12	$9,900	$10,194	68%	76%	+$3,708	-$0	0.0%	$59,720 (vs do-nothing +$2,882)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.09	7/12	$10,972	$12,442	68%	77%	+$4,694	-$0	0.0%	$57,615 (vs do-nothing +$777)

Show 174 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 174.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.56	11/12	$10,680	$10,974	66%	76%	+$3,899	-$0	0.0%	$59,676 (vs do-nothing +$2,838)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.20	11/12	$10,560	$10,854	66%	75%	+$3,072	-$0	0.0%	$59,280 (vs do-nothing +$2,442)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.15	8/12	$10,800	$11,976	66%	76%	+$4,130	-$0	0.0%	$58,574 (vs do-nothing +$1,736)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.46	11/12	$10,513	$10,807	66%	75%	+$3,741	-$0	0.0%	$60,666 (vs do-nothing +$3,828)
$760	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.98	12/12	$10,251	$10,251	66%	75%	+$3,613	-$0	0.0%	$62,838 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.58	7/12	$10,836	$12,306	65%	76%	+$4,265	-$0	0.0%	$57,958 (vs do-nothing +$1,120)
$757	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.05	10/12	$10,125	$10,713	65%	75%	+$3,569	-$0	0.0%	$59,908 (vs do-nothing +$3,070)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.66	10/12	$10,980	$11,568	64%	74%	+$3,882	-$0	0.0%	$59,518 (vs do-nothing +$2,680)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.45	11/12	$10,136	$10,430	64%	74%	+$3,430	-$0	0.0%	$62,855 (vs do-nothing +$6,017)
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$3.06	7/12	$10,710	$12,180	63%	74%	+$3,672	-$0	0.0%	$58,294 (vs do-nothing +$1,456)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.94	10/12	$10,586	$11,174	63%	74%	+$3,574	-$0	0.0%	$60,798 (vs do-nothing +$3,960)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.03	9/12	$9,892	$10,774	63%	74%	+$3,377	-$0	0.0%	$59,583 (vs do-nothing +$2,745)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.54	6/12	$11,430	$13,194	63%	74%	+$4,421	-$0	0.0%	$57,774 (vs do-nothing +$936)
$756	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.53	9/12	$10,192	$11,074	62%	73%	+$3,375	-$0	0.0%	$60,033 (vs do-nothing +$3,195)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.63	7/12	$10,890	$12,360	62%	74%	+$3,887	-$0	0.0%	$58,693 (vs do-nothing +$1,855)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.95	10/12	$9,929	$10,517	62%	73%	+$3,233	-$0	0.0%	$62,808 (vs do-nothing +$5,970)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.15	8/12	$9,960	$11,136	61%	73%	+$3,271	-$0	0.0%	$59,374 (vs do-nothing +$2,536)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.44	9/12	$10,491	$11,373	61%	73%	+$3,348	-$0	0.0%	$60,852 (vs do-nothing +$4,014)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.05	6/12	$10,980	$12,744	60%	72%	+$3,460	-$0	0.0%	$58,080 (vs do-nothing +$1,242)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.53	9/12	$11,119	$12,001	60%	72%	+$3,542	-$0	0.0%	$60,033 (vs do-nothing +$3,195)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.46	10/12	$10,657	$11,245	60%	72%	+$3,324	-$0	0.0%	$63,318 (vs do-nothing +$6,480)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.04	8/12	$10,080	$11,256	60%	72%	+$3,134	-$0	0.0%	$60,086 (vs do-nothing +$3,248)
$755	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.45	8/12	$10,062	$11,238	59%	73%	+$3,495	-$0	0.0%	$60,414 (vs do-nothing +$3,576)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	6/12	$10,671	$12,435	59%	72%	+$3,486	-$0	0.0%	$58,740 (vs do-nothing +$1,902)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.96	8/12	$10,217	$11,393	58%	71%	+$3,073	-$0	0.0%	$60,822 (vs do-nothing +$3,984)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.99	9/12	$10,273	$11,155	58%	71%	+$3,071	-$0	0.0%	$63,147 (vs do-nothing +$6,309)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.67	8/12	$11,208	$12,384	58%	71%	+$3,409	-$0	0.0%	$59,790 (vs do-nothing +$2,952)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.05	5/12	$11,438	$13,496	57%	72%	+$3,955	-$0	0.0%	$57,873 (vs do-nothing +$1,035)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.06	8/12	$11,040	$12,216	57%	71%	+$3,275	-$0	0.0%	$60,102 (vs do-nothing +$3,264)
$754	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.58	8/12	$11,160	$12,336	57%	71%	+$3,259	-$0	0.0%	$60,518 (vs do-nothing +$3,680)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.55	9/12	$10,993	$11,875	57%	71%	+$3,183	-$0	0.0%	$63,651 (vs do-nothing +$6,813)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.57	5/12	$10,710	$12,768	56%	71%	+$3,430	-$0	0.0%	$58,133 (vs do-nothing +$1,295)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.52	8/12	$11,177	$12,353	56%	70%	+$3,220	-$0	0.0%	$61,270 (vs do-nothing +$4,432)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/12	$10,071	$12,129	55%	70%	+$3,072	-$0	0.0%	$58,698 (vs do-nothing +$1,860)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.12	8/12	$10,423	$11,599	55%	70%	+$2,904	-$0	0.0%	$63,350 (vs do-nothing +$6,512)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.23	7/12	$10,983	$12,453	55%	70%	+$3,124	-$0	0.0%	$59,813 (vs do-nothing +$2,975)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.63	7/12	$10,748	$12,218	54%	70%	+$2,993	-$0	0.0%	$60,093 (vs do-nothing +$3,255)
$753	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.14	7/12	$10,745	$12,215	54%	69%	+$2,936	-$0	0.0%	$60,450 (vs do-nothing +$3,612)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.09	7/12	$10,635	$12,105	54%	69%	+$2,894	-$0	0.0%	$61,115 (vs do-nothing +$4,277)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.71	8/12	$11,097	$12,273	53%	69%	+$2,953	-$0	0.0%	$63,822 (vs do-nothing +$6,984)
$752	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.60	4/12	$10,800	$13,152	52%	70%	+$3,320	-$0	0.0%	$57,886 (vs do-nothing +$1,048)
$752	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.14	4/12	$9,936	$12,288	52%	69%	+$2,878	-$0	0.0%	$58,102 (vs do-nothing +$1,264)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.29	5/12	$11,336	$13,394	52%	70%	+$3,796	-$0	0.0%	$58,993 (vs do-nothing +$2,155)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.82	6/12	$10,476	$12,240	52%	68%	+$2,758	-$0	0.0%	$59,742 (vs do-nothing +$2,904)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.22	6/12	$10,178	$11,942	52%	68%	+$2,632	-$0	0.0%	$59,982 (vs do-nothing +$3,144)
$752	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.73	6/12	$10,095	$11,859	52%	69%	+$3,092	-$0	0.0%	$60,288 (vs do-nothing +$3,450)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.69	7/12	$11,535	$13,005	51%	68%	+$2,947	-$0	0.0%	$61,535 (vs do-nothing +$4,697)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.32	7/12	$10,320	$11,790	51%	68%	+$2,618	-$0	0.0%	$63,376 (vs do-nothing +$6,538)
$751	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.93	7/12	$10,930	$12,400	50%	68%	+$2,657	-$0	0.0%	$63,393 (vs do-nothing +$6,555)
$751	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.30	6/12	$10,671	$12,435	49%	67%	+$2,576	-$0	0.0%	$60,879 (vs do-nothing +$4,041)
$751	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.35	6/12	$11,025	$12,789	49%	67%	+$2,649	-$0	0.0%	$60,309 (vs do-nothing +$3,471)
$751	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.84	6/12	$11,193	$12,957	49%	67%	+$2,710	-$0	0.0%	$60,003 (vs do-nothing +$3,165)
$751	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.44	6/12	$11,592	$13,356	49%	67%	+$2,844	-$0	0.0%	$59,763 (vs do-nothing +$2,925)
$751	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.88	4/12	$10,080	$12,432	48%	69%	+$3,189	-$0	0.0%	$58,564 (vs do-nothing +$1,726)
$751	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.74	4/12	$11,376	$13,728	48%	68%	+$3,108	-$0	0.0%	$58,108 (vs do-nothing +$1,270)
$751	4d	14 Jul 2026	$4.19	4/12	$12,570	$14,922	47%	67%	+$3,391	-$0	0.0%	$57,888 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$750	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.58	6/12	$9,926	$11,690	47%	70%	+$3,701	-$0	0.0%	$62,247 (vs do-nothing +$5,409)
$750	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.92	6/12	$11,469	$13,233	47%	66%	+$2,605	-$0	0.0%	$60,651 (vs do-nothing +$3,813)
$749	21d	31 Jul 2026	$12.22	6/12	$10,474	$12,238	46%	66%	+$2,348	-$0	0.0%	$62,031 (vs do-nothing +$5,193)
$750	13d	23 Jul 2026	$8.02	6/12	$11,105	$12,869	46%	68%	+$2,938	-$0	0.0%	$60,111 (vs do-nothing +$3,273)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 01:46