FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $751.73

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.73 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-10 02:12 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $751.73 UNDERWATER $12.27 (1.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.73 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$19,723/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$55,746	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,861/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$19,723/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.5 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $751.73 (probe: $752C 14d) still earns $19,723/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 64 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 57 · %B 83 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $785.87 (+5%) · daily UBB $756.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 11 contracts at $758 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($9,861/mo); it brings $10,607/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $754/7d for $20,931/mo, but breach risk rises to 42% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $765/7d (92% survival, $2,726/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 11 contracts realizes $51,095 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 11 × $758, 73% survival, $10,607/mo (E[net] $2,363/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	11 × $758	73%	$10,607	$2,363

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $2,363/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 11 × $758 (primary), 73% survival, breach 27%, $10,607/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $761 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 27% → 20%) for $3,973/mo less (37% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $761 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $751.73 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $765

17 Jul

1.8%

92%

17%

$636

$2,726

-$7,881

Sell 12 × $765 1.8% OTM over spot $751.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.54 mid)

= $636 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,726/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $765)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $765.53)

93%

EV / mo

+$1,800

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,995

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 82% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.86 mid-life (likely $3.45–$5.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 539 simulated challenges: the $765 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $768 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.67/sh	+$802 cycle +$1,438 [+$601…+$1,528] · 99% credit	68% surv 50%	+$70,130 SAFE cap gain +$14,384
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.51/sh	+$608 cycle +$1,244 [+$355…+$1,284] · 94% credit	69% surv 51%	+$70,200 SAFE cap gain +$14,454
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$773	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.92/sh	+$1,105 cycle +$1,741 [+$91…+$1,709] · 77% credit	76% surv 67%	+$78,501 SAFE cap gain +$22,755
Max even-money escape in the band	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.10/sh	+$114 cycle +$750 [-$1,044…+$664] · 40% credit	78% surv 71%	+$79,462 SAFE cap gain +$23,716
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.40/sh	-$477 cycle +$159 [-$1,577…+$91] · 27% credit	82% surv 75%	+$79,847 SAFE cap gain +$24,101
budget: banked $636 debit $477 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$159 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,924/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,726/mo
vs 50% target ($9,861/mo)	-72%
vs normal income ($19,723/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,726/mo

Downside budget

✓ $765 is at/above CC-SS $751.73: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $765.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $765)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $757.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $757-765.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $765.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$765.00 (1.2σ)	$636	$69,328	+$13,582	+$696
+2.5%	$784.12 (3.0σ)	$-22,314	$65,037	+$9,291	+$696
+5%	$803.25 (4.8σ)	$-45,264	$60,745	+$4,999	+$696

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,746

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $765): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,746 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,140, the opportunity cost of earning $2,726/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

12 × $761

17 Jul

1.2%

80%

39%

$1,548

$6,634

-$3,973

Sell 12 × $761 1.2% OTM over spot $751.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.29 mid)

= $1,548 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,634/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $761)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $762.29)

84%

EV / mo

+$2,678

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,059

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 84% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $5.43/sh now → $3.84 mid-life (likely $4.01–$6.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 963 simulated challenges: the $761 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $763 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.76/sh	+$915 cycle +$2,463 [+$565…+$1,282] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$67,252 SAFE cap gain +$11,506
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.05/sh	+$1,261 cycle +$2,809 [+$116…+$1,356] · 79% credit	76% surv 67%	+$75,667 SAFE cap gain +$19,921
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$762	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.02/sh	+$29 cycle +$1,577 [-$475…+$242] · 36% credit	71% surv 56%	+$67,606 SAFE cap gain +$11,860
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.22/sh	+$266 cycle +$1,814 [-$1,036…+$303] · 34% credit	78% surv 71%	+$76,623 SAFE cap gain +$20,877
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.22/sh	-$1,461 cycle +$87 [-$2,984…-$1,494] · 5% credit	84% surv 80%	+$78,798 SAFE cap gain +$23,052
budget: banked $1,548 debit $1,461 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$87 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,243/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,634/mo
vs 50% target ($9,861/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($19,723/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,634/mo

Downside budget

✓ $761 is at/above CC-SS $751.73: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.29 collected) or spot ≥ $762.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $761)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $753.39	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $753-762.29	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $762.29	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$761.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,548	$66,338	+$10,592	+$408
+2.5%	$780.02 (2.6σ)	$-21,282	$62,069	+$6,323	-$3,192
+5%	$799.05 (4.4σ)	$-44,112	$57,799	+$2,053	-$3,192

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,746

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $761): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,746 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,140, the opportunity cost of earning $6,634/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

11 × $758

17 Jul

0.8%

73%

46%

$2,475

$10,607

—

Sell 11 × $758 0.8% OTM over spot $751.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.25 mid)

= $2,475 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,607/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $760.25)

79%

EV / mo

+$4,586

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

46%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,731

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 88% POP

86% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.41/sh now → $3.82 mid-life (likely $4.36–$6.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,372 simulated challenges: the $758 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $761 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.83/sh	+$915 cycle +$3,390 [+$494…+$999] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$65,348 SAFE cap gain +$9,602
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$766	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.15/sh	+$1,263 cycle +$3,738 [-$18…+$1,086] · 75% credit	75% surv 67%	+$73,537 SAFE cap gain +$17,791
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.09/sh	+$104 cycle +$2,579 [-$453…+$100] · 29% credit	70% surv 55%	+$65,776 SAFE cap gain +$10,030
Max even-money escape in the band	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.32/sh	+$348 cycle +$2,823 [-$1,104…+$117] · 28% credit	78% surv 71%	+$74,373 SAFE cap gain +$18,627
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.11/sh	-$2,323 cycle +$152 [-$4,416…-$2,736]	88% surv 86%	+$78,707 SAFE cap gain +$22,961
budget: banked $2,475 debit $2,323 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$152 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $3,138/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,607/mo
vs 50% target ($9,861/mo)	+8%
vs normal income ($19,723/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,892/mo

Downside budget

✓ $758 is at/above CC-SS $751.73: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$51,095

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.25 collected) or spot ≥ $760.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $758)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $750.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $750-760.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$758.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,475	$64,433	+$8,687	+$1,430
+2.5%	$776.95 (2.3σ)	$-18,370	$60,781	+$5,035	-$5,170
+5%	$795.90 (4.1σ)	$-39,215	$56,528	+$782	-$5,170

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,746

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $758): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$95

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,841 (+$95 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,045, the opportunity cost of earning $10,607/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $754

17 Jul

0.3%

58%

84%

$4,884

$20,931

+$10,324

Sell 12 × $754 0.3% OTM over spot $751.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.08 mid)

= $4,884 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,931/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $754)

58%

Breach risk

42%

POP (stays ≤ $758.08)

71%

EV / mo

+$6,518

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

67%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$320

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.80 mid-life (likely $5.05–$7.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,012 simulated challenges: the $754 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $757 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.92/sh	+$1,109 cycle +$5,993 [+$560…+$878] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$63,954 SAFE cap gain +$8,208
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$762	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.28/sh	+$1,532 cycle +$6,416 [-$170…+$818] · 69% credit	75% surv 67%	+$72,444 SAFE cap gain +$16,698
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.19/sh	+$225 cycle +$5,109 [-$523…-$110] · 19% credit	70% surv 55%	+$64,309 SAFE cap gain +$8,563
Max even-money escape in the band	~$765	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.00/sh	+$1 cycle +$4,885 [-$1,788…-$751] · 10% credit	81% surv 75%	+$73,840 SAFE cap gain +$18,094
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.56/sh	-$3,068 cycle +$1,816 [-$6,096…-$4,182]	90% surv 89%	+$80,528 SAFE cap gain +$24,782
budget: banked $4,884 debit $3,068 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,816 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,494/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$20,931/mo
vs 50% target ($9,861/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($19,723/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$20,931/mo

Downside budget

✓ $754 is at/above CC-SS $751.73: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.07 collected) or spot ≥ $758.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $754)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $746.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $746-758.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $758.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$754.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,884	$62,845	+$7,099	+$3,744
+2.5%	$772.85 (2.0σ)	$-17,736	$58,615	+$2,869	-$8,256
+5%	$791.70 (3.7σ)	$-40,356	$54,385	-$1,361	-$8,256

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.73, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,746

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $754): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,746 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,886 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,140, the opportunity cost of earning $20,931/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (185 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 185 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.813 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $56,886

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$758	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.38	12/12	$9,936	$9,936	78%	83%	+$4,998	-$0	0.0%	$57,402 (vs do-nothing +$516)
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.31	11/12	$10,808	$11,093	77%	82%	+$5,539	-$0	0.0%	$57,282 (vs do-nothing +$396)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.72	10/12	$10,320	$10,890	74%	80%	+$4,701	-$0	0.0%	$57,656 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.25	11/12	$10,607	$10,892	73%	79%	+$4,586	-$0	0.0%	$58,316 (vs do-nothing +$1,430)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.65	8/12	$9,900	$11,040	72%	79%	+$4,546	-$0	0.0%	$57,446 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.10	8/12	$10,080	$11,220	69%	78%	+$4,188	-$0	0.0%	$57,806 (vs do-nothing +$920)
$758	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.09	12/12	$10,113	$10,113	69%	77%	+$3,869	-$0	0.0%	$59,454 (vs do-nothing +$2,568)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.64	9/12	$10,183	$11,038	69%	77%	+$3,886	-$0	0.0%	$58,407 (vs do-nothing +$1,521)
$759	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.99	12/12	$10,260	$10,260	69%	77%	+$4,173	-$0	0.0%	$60,534 (vs do-nothing +$3,648)
$758	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.56	12/12	$10,680	$10,680	68%	76%	+$3,900	-$0	0.0%	$60,018 (vs do-nothing +$3,132)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.05	7/12	$10,762	$12,187	67%	77%	+$4,448	-$0	0.0%	$57,656 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.13	11/12	$10,329	$10,614	67%	76%	+$3,780	-$0	0.0%	$59,284 (vs do-nothing +$2,398)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.43	11/12	$10,442	$10,727	66%	76%	+$4,157	-$0	0.0%	$60,714 (vs do-nothing +$3,828)

Show 172 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 172.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.52	11/12	$10,560	$10,845	66%	75%	+$3,767	-$0	0.0%	$59,713 (vs do-nothing +$2,827)
$760	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.95	12/12	$10,200	$10,200	66%	75%	+$3,544	-$0	0.0%	$62,886 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.08	8/12	$10,560	$11,700	66%	75%	+$3,893	-$0	0.0%	$58,590 (vs do-nothing +$1,704)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.53	7/12	$10,626	$12,051	65%	75%	+$4,007	-$0	0.0%	$57,992 (vs do-nothing +$1,106)
$757	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.01	10/12	$10,025	$10,595	65%	75%	+$3,445	-$0	0.0%	$59,946 (vs do-nothing +$3,060)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.59	10/12	$10,770	$11,340	64%	74%	+$3,675	-$0	0.0%	$59,526 (vs do-nothing +$2,640)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.91	10/12	$10,521	$11,091	64%	75%	+$4,109	-$0	0.0%	$60,846 (vs do-nothing +$3,960)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.42	11/12	$10,089	$10,374	64%	74%	+$3,369	-$0	0.0%	$62,903 (vs do-nothing +$6,017)
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.99	7/12	$10,465	$11,890	63%	74%	+$3,709	-$0	0.0%	$58,314 (vs do-nothing +$1,428)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.99	10/12	$10,882	$11,452	63%	74%	+$3,631	-$0	0.0%	$59,926 (vs do-nothing +$3,040)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.50	6/12	$11,250	$12,960	62%	74%	+$4,174	-$0	0.0%	$57,816 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$756	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.48	9/12	$10,080	$10,935	62%	73%	+$3,240	-$0	0.0%	$60,063 (vs do-nothing +$3,177)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.55	7/12	$10,650	$12,075	62%	73%	+$3,622	-$0	0.0%	$58,706 (vs do-nothing +$1,820)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.91	10/12	$9,871	$10,441	62%	73%	+$3,164	-$0	0.0%	$62,846 (vs do-nothing +$5,960)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.08	9/12	$11,016	$11,871	61%	72%	+$3,486	-$0	0.0%	$59,703 (vs do-nothing +$2,817)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.41	9/12	$10,434	$11,289	61%	72%	+$3,283	-$0	0.0%	$60,900 (vs do-nothing +$4,014)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.00	6/12	$10,800	$12,510	60%	73%	+$3,662	-$0	0.0%	$58,116 (vs do-nothing +$1,230)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.43	10/12	$10,614	$11,184	60%	72%	+$3,271	-$0	0.0%	$63,366 (vs do-nothing +$6,480)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.49	9/12	$11,021	$11,876	60%	72%	+$3,431	-$0	0.0%	$60,072 (vs do-nothing +$3,186)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.99	8/12	$9,980	$11,120	59%	72%	+$3,266	-$0	0.0%	$60,118 (vs do-nothing +$3,232)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.93	8/12	$10,166	$11,306	59%	73%	+$3,772	-$0	0.0%	$60,870 (vs do-nothing +$3,984)
$755	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.44	8/12	$10,043	$11,183	59%	71%	+$2,959	-$0	0.0%	$60,478 (vs do-nothing +$3,592)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.07	6/12	$10,466	$12,176	58%	71%	+$3,259	-$0	0.0%	$58,758 (vs do-nothing +$1,872)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.96	9/12	$10,234	$11,089	58%	71%	+$3,025	-$0	0.0%	$63,195 (vs do-nothing +$6,309)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.60	8/12	$11,040	$12,180	57%	71%	+$3,217	-$0	0.0%	$59,806 (vs do-nothing +$2,920)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.02	8/12	$10,953	$12,093	57%	71%	+$3,174	-$0	0.0%	$60,142 (vs do-nothing +$3,256)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/12	$11,250	$13,245	57%	71%	+$3,680	-$0	0.0%	$57,911 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)
$754	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.53	8/12	$11,060	$12,200	57%	71%	+$3,534	-$0	0.0%	$60,550 (vs do-nothing +$3,664)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.51	9/12	$10,941	$11,796	56%	70%	+$3,119	-$0	0.0%	$63,690 (vs do-nothing +$6,804)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.49	8/12	$11,126	$12,266	56%	72%	+$4,025	-$0	0.0%	$61,318 (vs do-nothing +$4,432)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.52	5/12	$10,560	$12,555	56%	71%	+$3,218	-$0	0.0%	$58,171 (vs do-nothing +$1,285)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.61	5/12	$9,879	$11,874	55%	70%	+$2,846	-$0	0.0%	$58,716 (vs do-nothing +$1,830)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.09	8/12	$10,389	$11,529	55%	70%	+$2,855	-$0	0.0%	$63,398 (vs do-nothing +$6,512)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.16	7/12	$10,836	$12,261	54%	69%	+$2,945	-$0	0.0%	$59,833 (vs do-nothing +$2,947)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.58	7/12	$10,653	$12,078	54%	69%	+$2,881	-$0	0.0%	$60,127 (vs do-nothing +$3,241)
$753	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.10	7/12	$10,675	$12,100	54%	69%	+$2,831	-$0	0.0%	$60,491 (vs do-nothing +$3,605)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.06	7/12	$10,590	$12,015	54%	71%	+$3,713	-$0	0.0%	$61,163 (vs do-nothing +$4,277)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.68	8/12	$11,063	$12,203	53%	69%	+$2,902	-$0	0.0%	$63,870 (vs do-nothing +$6,984)
$752	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.55	4/12	$10,650	$12,930	52%	69%	+$3,059	-$0	0.0%	$57,926 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$752	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.09	5/12	$12,270	$14,265	51%	69%	+$3,361	-$0	0.0%	$58,456 (vs do-nothing +$1,570)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	5/12	$11,143	$13,138	51%	68%	+$2,939	-$0	0.0%	$59,011 (vs do-nothing +$2,125)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.75	6/12	$10,350	$12,060	51%	68%	+$2,597	-$0	0.0%	$59,766 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.18	6/12	$10,113	$11,823	51%	68%	+$2,543	-$0	0.0%	$60,024 (vs do-nothing +$3,138)
$752	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.69	6/12	$10,035	$11,745	51%	68%	+$2,488	-$0	0.0%	$60,330 (vs do-nothing +$3,444)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.67	6/12	$9,861	$11,571	51%	70%	+$3,358	-$0	0.0%	$60,918 (vs do-nothing +$4,032)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.29	7/12	$10,290	$11,715	51%	68%	+$2,573	-$0	0.0%	$63,424 (vs do-nothing +$6,538)
$751	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.86	7/12	$10,860	$12,285	49%	67%	+$2,567	-$0	0.0%	$63,312 (vs do-nothing +$6,426)
$751	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.31	6/12	$10,965	$12,675	49%	67%	+$2,547	-$0	0.0%	$60,264 (vs do-nothing +$3,378)
$751	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.26	6/12	$10,620	$12,330	49%	69%	+$3,470	-$0	0.0%	$60,834 (vs do-nothing +$3,948)
$751	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.79	6/12	$11,111	$12,821	48%	67%	+$2,598	-$0	0.0%	$59,952 (vs do-nothing +$3,066)
$751	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.36	6/12	$11,448	$13,158	48%	67%	+$2,664	-$0	0.0%	$59,694 (vs do-nothing +$2,808)
$751	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/12	$9,943	$12,223	48%	67%	+$2,410	-$0	0.0%	$58,534 (vs do-nothing +$1,648)
$750	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.53	6/12	$9,883	$11,593	48%	67%	+$2,268	-$0	0.0%	$62,196 (vs do-nothing +$5,310)
$751	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.69	4/12	$11,256	$13,536	47%	67%	+$2,754	-$0	0.0%	$58,090 (vs do-nothing +$1,204)
$751	4d	14 Jul 2026	$4.13	4/12	$12,390	$14,670	47%	67%	+$3,059	-$0	0.0%	$57,866 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$750	13d	23 Jul 2026	$7.96	6/12	$11,022	$12,732	46%	66%	+$1,935	-$0	0.0%	$60,054 (vs do-nothing +$3,168)
$749	21d	31 Jul 2026	$12.19	6/12	$10,449	$12,159	46%	66%	+$2,306	-$0	0.0%	$61,992 (vs do-nothing +$5,106)
$750	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.93	5/12	$9,912	$11,908	46%	66%	+$2,134	-$0	0.0%	$59,511 (vs do-nothing +$2,625)
$750	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.91	6/12	$11,456	$13,166	46%	68%	+$3,618	-$0	0.0%	$60,624 (vs do-nothing +$3,738)
$750	11d	21 Jul 2026	$7.37	5/12	$10,050	$12,045	46%	66%	+$2,114	-$0	0.0%	$59,231 (vs do-nothing +$2,345)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 02:12