FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $751.67

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.67 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-10 02:23 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $751.67 UNDERWATER $12.33 (1.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.67 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$19,414/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$55,716	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,707/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$19,414/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $751.67 (probe: $752C 14d) still earns $19,414/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 64 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 57 · %B 82 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $785.87 (+5%) · daily UBB $756.38 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 11 contracts at $758 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($9,707/mo); it brings $10,277/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $754/7d for $20,417/mo, but breach risk rises to 42% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $764/7d (90% survival, $3,343/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 11 contracts realizes $51,068 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 11 × $758, 73% survival, $10,277/mo (E[net] $2,168/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	11 × $758	73%	$10,277	$2,168

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $2,168/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 11 × $758 (primary), 73% survival, breach 27%, $10,277/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $761 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 27% → 17%) for $3,849/mo less (37% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $761 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $751.67 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $764

17 Jul

1.6%

90%

20%

$780

$3,343

-$6,934

Sell 12 × $764 1.6% OTM over spot $751.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.66 mid)

= $780 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,343/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $764)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $764.65)

91%

EV / mo

+$2,129

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,786

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.80 mid-life (likely $3.52–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 640 simulated challenges: the $764 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $766 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$764	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.67/sh	+$810 cycle +$1,590 [+$575…+$1,379] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$69,291 SAFE cap gain +$13,575
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$764	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.48/sh	+$574 cycle +$1,354 [+$262…+$1,055] · 94% credit	69% surv 52%	+$69,376 SAFE cap gain +$13,660
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$772	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.79/sh	+$943 cycle +$1,723 [+$185…+$1,499] · 82% credit	79% surv 70%	+$77,521 SAFE cap gain +$21,805
Max even-money escape in the band	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$151 cycle +$931 [-$1,007…+$601] · 41% credit	78% surv 71%	+$78,672 SAFE cap gain +$22,956
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.59/sh	-$709 cycle +$71 [-$2,029…-$315] · 18% credit	80% surv 75%	+$79,757 SAFE cap gain +$24,041
budget: banked $780 debit $709 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,429/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,343/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	-66%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	17% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,343/mo

Downside budget

✓ $764 is at/above CC-SS $751.67: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,710

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $764.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $764)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $756.36	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $756-764.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $764.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$764.00 (1.2σ)	$780	$68,481	+$12,765	-$324
+2.5%	$783.10 (3.0σ)	$-22,140	$64,126	+$8,410	-$324
+5%	$802.20 (4.8σ)	$-45,060	$59,771	+$4,055	-$324

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,716

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $764): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,716 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,820 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,104, the opportunity cost of earning $3,343/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

12 × $761

17 Jul

1.2%

83%

35%

$1,500

$6,429

-$3,849

Sell 12 × $761 1.2% OTM over spot $751.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.25 mid)

= $1,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,429/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $761)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $762.25)

86%

EV / mo

+$3,379

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,048

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $5.36/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $4.00–$6.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $761 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $763 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.74/sh	+$894 cycle +$2,394 [+$551…+$1,257] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$67,178 SAFE cap gain +$11,462
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.55/sh	+$658 cycle +$2,158 [+$260…+$962] · 94% credit	69% surv 52%	+$67,263 SAFE cap gain +$11,547
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.91/sh	+$1,089 cycle +$2,589 [+$207…+$1,272] · 83% credit	79% surv 70%	+$75,471 SAFE cap gain +$19,755
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.22/sh	+$263 cycle +$1,763 [-$1,021…+$296] · 33% credit	78% surv 71%	+$76,589 SAFE cap gain +$20,873
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.13/sh	-$1,359 cycle +$141 [-$2,957…-$1,438] · 5% credit	83% surv 79%	+$78,854 SAFE cap gain +$23,138
budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,359 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$141 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $5,315/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,429/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,429/mo

Downside budget

✓ $761 is at/above CC-SS $751.67: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,710

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $762.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $761)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $753.39	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $753-762.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $762.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$761.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,500	$66,285	+$10,569	+$396
+2.5%	$780.02 (2.7σ)	$-21,330	$61,947	+$6,231	-$3,204
+5%	$799.05 (4.5σ)	$-44,160	$57,609	+$1,893	-$3,204

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,716

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $761): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,716 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,820 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,104, the opportunity cost of earning $6,429/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

11 × $758

17 Jul

0.8%

73%

46%

$2,398

$10,277

—

Sell 11 × $758 0.8% OTM over spot $751.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.19 mid)

= $2,398 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,277/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $760.18)

79%

EV / mo

+$4,151

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

46%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,755

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.34/sh now → $3.78 mid-life (likely $4.30–$6.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,367 simulated challenges: the $758 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $761 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.81/sh	+$895 cycle +$3,293 [+$485…+$981] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$65,254 SAFE cap gain +$9,538
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$766	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.03/sh	+$1,131 cycle +$3,529 [+$175…+$1,047] · 82% credit	79% surv 69%	+$73,353 SAFE cap gain +$17,637
Max even-money escape in the band	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$344 cycle +$2,742 [-$1,088…+$112] · 28% credit	78% surv 71%	+$74,310 SAFE cap gain +$18,594
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.05/sh	+$57 cycle +$2,455 [-$501…+$50] · 27% credit	70% surv 56%	+$65,709 SAFE cap gain +$9,993
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.06/sh	-$2,261 cycle +$137 [-$4,356…-$2,675]	87% surv 85%	+$78,681 SAFE cap gain +$22,965
budget: banked $2,398 debit $2,261 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$137 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $3,152/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,277/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,553/mo

Downside budget

✓ $758 is at/above CC-SS $751.67: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$51,068

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.18 collected) or spot ≥ $760.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $758)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $750.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $750-760.18	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.18	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$758.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,398	$64,359	+$8,643	+$1,386
+2.5%	$776.95 (2.4σ)	$-18,447	$60,638	+$4,922	-$5,214
+5%	$795.90 (4.2σ)	$-39,292	$56,318	+$602	-$5,214

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,716

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $758): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$92

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,808 (+$92 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,820 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,012, the opportunity cost of earning $10,277/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $754

17 Jul

0.3%

58%

84%

$4,764

$20,417

+$10,140

Sell 12 × $754 0.3% OTM over spot $751.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.98 mid)

= $4,764 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,417/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $754)

58%

Breach risk

42%

POP (stays ≤ $757.98)

71%

EV / mo

+$6,121

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

67%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$258

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $5.31/sh now → $3.76 mid-life (likely $4.98–$7.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,006 simulated challenges: the $754 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $757 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.91/sh	+$1,086 cycle +$5,850 [+$549…+$870] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$63,831 SAFE cap gain +$8,115
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$762	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.19/sh	+$1,425 cycle +$6,189 [+$159…+$876] · 81% credit	79% surv 69%	+$72,267 SAFE cap gain +$16,551
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.14/sh	+$172 cycle +$4,936 [-$575…-$160] · 17% credit	70% surv 56%	+$64,210 SAFE cap gain +$8,494
Max even-money escape in the band	~$765	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$72 cycle +$4,836 [-$1,911…-$711] · 10% credit	79% surv 73%	+$73,830 SAFE cap gain +$18,114
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.67/sh	-$3,202 cycle +$1,562 [-$6,278…-$4,329]	91% surv 90%	+$81,247 SAFE cap gain +$25,531
budget: banked $4,764 debit $3,202 (67% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,562 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,173/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$20,417/mo
vs 50% target ($9,707/mo)	+110%
vs normal income ($19,414/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$20,417/mo

Downside budget

✓ $754 is at/above CC-SS $751.67: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,704

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.99/sh (~25% of the $3.97 collected) or spot ≥ $757.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $754)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.38 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $746.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $746-757.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $757.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$754.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,764	$62,745	+$7,029	+$3,660
+2.5%	$772.85 (2.0σ)	$-17,856	$58,447	+$2,731	-$8,340
+5%	$791.70 (3.8σ)	$-40,476	$54,149	-$1,567	-$8,340

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,716

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $754): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,716 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,820 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,104, the opportunity cost of earning $20,417/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (184 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 184 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.810 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $56,820

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.26	11/12	$10,395	$10,671	78%	83%	+$5,279	-$0	0.0%	$57,194 (vs do-nothing +$374)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.65	10/12	$9,900	$10,452	74%	80%	+$4,376	-$0	0.0%	$57,550 (vs do-nothing +$730)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.59	9/12	$10,732	$11,560	73%	79%	+$4,844	-$0	0.0%	$57,423 (vs do-nothing +$603)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.18	11/12	$10,277	$10,553	73%	79%	+$4,151	-$0	0.0%	$58,206 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.03	8/12	$9,744	$10,848	70%	78%	+$3,940	-$0	0.0%	$57,708 (vs do-nothing +$888)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.56	9/12	$9,874	$10,702	69%	77%	+$3,866	-$0	0.0%	$58,296 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)
$758	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.01	12/12	$9,851	$9,851	69%	77%	+$3,672	-$0	0.0%	$59,328 (vs do-nothing +$2,508)
$759	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.91	12/12	$10,054	$10,054	68%	76%	+$3,650	-$0	0.0%	$60,408 (vs do-nothing +$3,588)
$760	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.88	12/12	$10,080	$10,080	68%	78%	+$4,991	-$0	0.0%	$62,772 (vs do-nothing +$5,952)
$758	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.47	12/12	$10,410	$10,410	68%	76%	+$3,681	-$0	0.0%	$59,880 (vs do-nothing +$3,060)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.98	7/12	$10,395	$11,775	68%	76%	+$4,143	-$0	0.0%	$57,562 (vs do-nothing +$742)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.05	11/12	$10,065	$10,341	67%	76%	+$3,574	-$0	0.0%	$59,163 (vs do-nothing +$2,343)
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.44	11/12	$10,320	$10,596	66%	75%	+$3,596	-$0	0.0%	$59,592 (vs do-nothing +$2,772)

Show 171 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 171.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.34	11/12	$9,963	$10,239	66%	77%	+$4,818	-$0	0.0%	$62,782 (vs do-nothing +$5,962)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	11/12	$10,254	$10,530	66%	75%	+$3,521	-$0	0.0%	$60,593 (vs do-nothing +$3,773)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.99	8/12	$10,251	$11,355	66%	75%	+$3,634	-$0	0.0%	$58,476 (vs do-nothing +$1,656)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.45	7/12	$10,290	$11,670	65%	75%	+$3,774	-$0	0.0%	$57,891 (vs do-nothing +$1,071)
$757	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.91	10/12	$9,775	$10,327	65%	75%	+$3,244	-$0	0.0%	$59,810 (vs do-nothing +$2,990)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/12	$10,500	$11,052	64%	74%	+$3,460	-$0	0.0%	$59,400 (vs do-nothing +$2,580)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.83	10/12	$9,757	$10,309	64%	76%	+$4,611	-$0	0.0%	$62,730 (vs do-nothing +$5,910)
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.90	7/12	$10,150	$11,530	64%	74%	+$3,457	-$0	0.0%	$58,206 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.82	10/12	$10,329	$10,881	63%	74%	+$3,353	-$0	0.0%	$60,720 (vs do-nothing +$3,900)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.90	10/12	$10,636	$11,188	63%	74%	+$3,449	-$0	0.0%	$59,800 (vs do-nothing +$2,980)
$756	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.38	9/12	$9,855	$10,683	62%	73%	+$3,064	-$0	0.0%	$59,934 (vs do-nothing +$3,114)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.46	7/12	$10,380	$11,760	62%	73%	+$3,399	-$0	0.0%	$58,598 (vs do-nothing +$1,778)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.34	10/12	$10,486	$11,038	62%	76%	+$4,838	-$0	0.0%	$63,240 (vs do-nothing +$6,420)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.42	6/12	$10,890	$12,546	62%	72%	+$3,154	-$0	0.0%	$57,720 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.99	9/12	$10,773	$11,601	61%	72%	+$3,296	-$0	0.0%	$59,583 (vs do-nothing +$2,763)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.31	9/12	$10,241	$11,069	61%	72%	+$3,130	-$0	0.0%	$60,771 (vs do-nothing +$3,951)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.92	6/12	$10,512	$12,168	61%	73%	+$3,459	-$0	0.0%	$58,020 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.39	9/12	$10,775	$11,603	60%	72%	+$3,235	-$0	0.0%	$59,943 (vs do-nothing +$3,123)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.87	9/12	$10,119	$10,947	60%	75%	+$4,553	-$0	0.0%	$63,075 (vs do-nothing +$6,255)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.88	8/12	$9,760	$10,864	59%	72%	+$2,839	-$0	0.0%	$59,988 (vs do-nothing +$3,168)
$755	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.33	8/12	$9,840	$10,944	59%	71%	+$2,797	-$0	0.0%	$60,348 (vs do-nothing +$3,528)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.97	6/12	$10,209	$11,865	58%	71%	+$3,061	-$0	0.0%	$58,650 (vs do-nothing +$1,830)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.84	8/12	$10,011	$11,115	58%	71%	+$2,895	-$0	0.0%	$60,756 (vs do-nothing +$3,936)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.42	9/12	$10,826	$11,654	58%	74%	+$4,747	-$0	0.0%	$63,570 (vs do-nothing +$6,750)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.50	8/12	$10,800	$11,904	58%	71%	+$3,042	-$0	0.0%	$59,684 (vs do-nothing +$2,864)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.92	8/12	$10,735	$11,839	57%	71%	+$2,995	-$0	0.0%	$60,020 (vs do-nothing +$3,200)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.92	5/12	$10,950	$12,882	57%	71%	+$3,450	-$0	0.0%	$57,820 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$754	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.41	8/12	$10,820	$11,924	57%	70%	+$2,943	-$0	0.0%	$60,412 (vs do-nothing +$3,592)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.43	5/12	$10,290	$12,222	56%	70%	+$3,010	-$0	0.0%	$58,075 (vs do-nothing +$1,255)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.38	8/12	$10,937	$12,041	56%	70%	+$2,996	-$0	0.0%	$61,188 (vs do-nothing +$4,368)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.99	8/12	$10,274	$11,378	56%	73%	+$4,386	-$0	0.0%	$63,276 (vs do-nothing +$6,456)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.51	6/12	$11,597	$13,253	55%	70%	+$3,219	-$0	0.0%	$58,974 (vs do-nothing +$2,154)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.05	7/12	$10,605	$11,985	54%	69%	+$2,783	-$0	0.0%	$59,711 (vs do-nothing +$2,891)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.48	7/12	$10,462	$11,842	54%	69%	+$2,741	-$0	0.0%	$60,012 (vs do-nothing +$3,192)
$753	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.97	7/12	$10,448	$11,828	54%	69%	+$2,657	-$0	0.0%	$60,355 (vs do-nothing +$3,535)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.96	7/12	$10,440	$11,820	54%	69%	+$2,718	-$0	0.0%	$61,048 (vs do-nothing +$4,228)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.57	8/12	$10,937	$12,041	53%	69%	+$2,801	-$0	0.0%	$63,740 (vs do-nothing +$6,920)
$752	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.46	4/12	$10,380	$12,588	52%	69%	+$2,855	-$0	0.0%	$57,836 (vs do-nothing +$1,016)
$752	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.98	5/12	$11,940	$13,872	52%	68%	+$3,102	-$0	0.0%	$58,350 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.08	5/12	$10,886	$12,818	51%	68%	+$2,742	-$0	0.0%	$58,900 (vs do-nothing +$2,080)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.63	6/12	$10,134	$11,790	51%	68%	+$2,451	-$0	0.0%	$59,646 (vs do-nothing +$2,826)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.06	6/12	$9,916	$11,572	51%	68%	+$2,395	-$0	0.0%	$59,904 (vs do-nothing +$3,084)
$752	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.56	6/12	$9,840	$11,496	51%	68%	+$2,340	-$0	0.0%	$60,204 (vs do-nothing +$3,384)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.55	7/12	$11,325	$12,705	51%	68%	+$2,755	-$0	0.0%	$61,461 (vs do-nothing +$4,641)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.18	7/12	$10,180	$11,560	51%	68%	+$2,486	-$0	0.0%	$63,302 (vs do-nothing +$6,482)
$751	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.75	7/12	$10,750	$12,130	49%	67%	+$2,483	-$0	0.0%	$63,232 (vs do-nothing +$6,412)
$751	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.17	6/12	$10,504	$12,160	49%	67%	+$2,424	-$0	0.0%	$60,768 (vs do-nothing +$3,948)
$751	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.17	6/12	$10,755	$12,411	49%	67%	+$2,385	-$0	0.0%	$60,168 (vs do-nothing +$3,348)
$751	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.67	6/12	$10,915	$12,571	49%	67%	+$2,448	-$0	0.0%	$59,868 (vs do-nothing +$3,048)
$751	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.24	6/12	$11,232	$12,888	48%	67%	+$2,505	-$0	0.0%	$59,610 (vs do-nothing +$2,790)
$751	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.69	4/12	$9,754	$11,962	48%	67%	+$2,264	-$0	0.0%	$58,460 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$751	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.58	4/12	$10,992	$13,200	47%	66%	+$2,555	-$0	0.0%	$58,016 (vs do-nothing +$1,196)
$751	4d	14 Jul 2026	$4.05	4/12	$12,150	$14,358	47%	66%	+$2,927	-$0	0.0%	$57,804 (vs do-nothing +$984)
$750	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.42	6/12	$9,789	$11,445	47%	71%	+$3,701	-$0	0.0%	$62,118 (vs do-nothing +$5,298)
$750	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.80	6/12	$11,314	$12,970	47%	66%	+$2,463	-$0	0.0%	$60,546 (vs do-nothing +$3,726)
$750	13d	23 Jul 2026	$7.85	6/12	$10,869	$12,525	46%	66%	+$1,819	-$0	0.0%	$59,976 (vs do-nothing +$3,156)
$750	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.80	5/12	$9,750	$11,682	46%	66%	+$2,012	-$0	0.0%	$59,425 (vs do-nothing +$2,605)
$749	21d	31 Jul 2026	$12.06	6/12	$10,337	$11,993	46%	66%	+$2,220	-$0	0.0%	$61,902 (vs do-nothing +$5,082)
$750	11d	21 Jul 2026	$7.27	5/12	$9,914	$11,846	46%	65%	+$2,023	-$0	0.0%	$59,160 (vs do-nothing +$2,340)
$750	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.83	5/12	$10,245	$12,177	45%	65%	+$2,047	-$0	0.0%	$58,940 (vs do-nothing +$2,120)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 02:23