FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $751.02

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.02 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-10 03:38 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $751.02 UNDERWATER $12.98 (1.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $751.02 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$20,057/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$55,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,029/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$20,057/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.4 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $751.02 (probe: $751C 14d) still earns $20,057/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 57 · %B 79 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $786.36 (+5%) · daily UBB $756.73 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $758 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 75%, breach 25%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($10,029/mo); it brings $10,131/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $753/7d for $21,549/mo, but breach risk rises to 43% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $764/7d (91% survival, $2,931/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $55,188 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 12 × $758, 75% survival, $10,131/mo (E[net] $1,690/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	12 × $758	75%	$10,131	$1,690

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,690/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $758 (primary), 75% survival, breach 25%, $10,131/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $760 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 25% → 18%) for $3,137/mo less (31% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $760 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $751.02 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $764

17 Jul

1.7%

91%

17%

$684

$2,931

-$7,200

Sell 12 × $764 1.7% OTM over spot $751.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.57 mid)

= $684 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,931/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $764)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $764.58)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,963

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,933

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.44/sh now → $3.85 mid-life (likely $3.60–$5.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 561 simulated challenges: the $764 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $766 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$764	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.66/sh	+$795 cycle +$1,479 [+$588…+$1,247] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$69,389 SAFE cap gain +$14,189
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$773	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.64/sh	+$768 cycle +$1,452 [-$231…+$1,166] · 66% credit	77% surv 69%	+$78,155 SAFE cap gain +$22,955
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.08/sh	+$101 cycle +$785 [-$235…+$503] · 56% credit	70% surv 54%	+$69,654 SAFE cap gain +$14,454
Max even-money escape in the band	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$274 cycle +$958 [-$821…+$658] · 43% credit	78% surv 71%	+$78,640 SAFE cap gain +$23,440
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.52/sh	-$621 cycle +$63 [-$1,891…-$298] · 19% credit	80% surv 75%	+$79,704 SAFE cap gain +$24,504
budget: banked $684 debit $621 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,660/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,931/mo
vs 50% target ($10,029/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($20,057/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,931/mo

Downside budget

✓ $764 is at/above CC-SS $751.02: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,194

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.57 collected) or spot ≥ $764.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $764)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $756.36	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $756-764.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $764.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$764.00 (1.2σ)	$684	$68,594	+$13,394	-$300
+2.5%	$783.10 (3.0σ)	$-22,236	$64,377	+$9,177	-$300
+5%	$802.20 (4.8σ)	$-45,156	$60,159	+$4,959	-$300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $764): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,200 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,184 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-984, the opportunity cost of earning $2,931/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

12 × $760

17 Jul

1.2%

82%

37%

$1,632

$6,994

-$3,137

Sell 12 × $760 1.2% OTM over spot $751.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.37 mid)

= $1,632 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,994/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $760)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $761.37)

85%

EV / mo

+$3,707

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,961

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 84% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $5.41/sh now → $3.83 mid-life (likely $3.94–$6.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 975 simulated challenges: the $760 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $763 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.76/sh	+$908 cycle +$2,540 [+$550…+$1,260] · 99% credit	68% surv 50%	+$66,533 SAFE cap gain +$11,333
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.77/sh	+$924 cycle +$2,556 [-$437…+$1,037] · 62% credit	77% surv 69%	+$75,343 SAFE cap gain +$20,143
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.18/sh	+$215 cycle +$1,847 [-$289…+$441] · 50% credit	70% surv 54%	+$66,800 SAFE cap gain +$11,600
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.36/sh	+$428 cycle +$2,060 [-$1,025…+$518] · 38% credit	78% surv 71%	+$75,826 SAFE cap gain +$20,626
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.33/sh	-$1,599 cycle +$33 [-$3,476…-$1,621] · 2% credit	84% surv 80%	+$78,695 SAFE cap gain +$23,495
budget: banked $1,632 debit $1,599 (98% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,990/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,994/mo
vs 50% target ($10,029/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($20,057/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,994/mo

Downside budget

✓ $760 is at/above CC-SS $751.02: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,194

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.36 collected) or spot ≥ $761.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $760)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $752.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $752-761.37	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $761.37	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$760.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,632	$65,625	+$10,425	+$648
+2.5%	$779.00 (2.6σ)	$-21,168	$61,430	+$6,230	-$4,152
+5%	$798.00 (4.4σ)	$-43,968	$57,235	+$2,035	-$4,152

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $760): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,200 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,184 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-984, the opportunity cost of earning $6,994/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $758

17 Jul

0.9%

75%

43%

$2,364

$10,131

—

Sell 12 × $758 0.9% OTM over spot $751.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.98 mid)

= $2,364 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,131/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

75%

Breach risk

25%

POP (stays ≤ $759.98)

81%

EV / mo

+$4,598

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

43%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,217

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 86% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $5.40/sh now → $3.82 mid-life (likely $4.28–$6.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,290 simulated challenges: the $758 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $760 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.80/sh	+$964 cycle +$3,328 [+$518…+$1,084] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$65,363 SAFE cap gain +$10,163
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$767	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.84/sh	+$1,002 cycle +$3,366 [-$372…+$820] · 62% credit	76% surv 68%	+$74,194 SAFE cap gain +$18,994
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.23/sh	+$272 cycle +$2,636 [-$269…+$353] · 46% credit	70% surv 54%	+$65,630 SAFE cap gain +$10,430
Max even-money escape in the band	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$44 cycle +$2,408 [-$1,494…-$190] · 21% credit	79% surv 72%	+$75,194 SAFE cap gain +$19,994
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.80/sh	-$2,161 cycle +$203 [-$4,226…-$2,533] · 0% credit	86% surv 83%	+$78,864 SAFE cap gain +$23,664
budget: banked $2,364 debit $2,161 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$203 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,032/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,131/mo
vs 50% target ($10,029/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($20,057/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,131/mo

Downside budget

✓ $758 is at/above CC-SS $751.02: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,188

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.97 collected) or spot ≥ $759.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $758)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $750.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $750-759.98	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $759.98	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$758.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,364	$64,399	+$9,199	+$1,380
+2.5%	$776.95 (2.4σ)	$-20,376	$60,215	+$5,015	-$5,820
+5%	$795.90 (4.2σ)	$-43,116	$56,030	+$830	-$5,820

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $758): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,200 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,184 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-984, the opportunity cost of earning $10,131/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $753

17 Jul

0.3%

57%

86%

$5,028

$21,549

+$11,417

Sell 12 × $753 0.3% OTM over spot $751.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.20 mid)

= $5,028 credit for the 7d cycle → $21,549/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $753)

57%

Breach risk

43%

POP (stays ≤ $757.20)

71%

EV / mo

+$6,699

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

69%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$478

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 91% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.36/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $5.09–$7.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,076 simulated challenges: the $753 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $756 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$753	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.92/sh	+$1,104 cycle +$6,132 [+$535…+$828] · 100% credit	68% surv 50%	+$63,270 SAFE cap gain +$8,070
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$761	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.43/sh	+$1,722 cycle +$6,750 [-$12…+$1,008] · 75% credit	75% surv 66%	+$71,703 SAFE cap gain +$16,503
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.34/sh	+$412 cycle +$5,440 [-$306…+$87] · 31% credit	70% surv 54%	+$63,539 SAFE cap gain +$8,339
Max even-money escape in the band	~$764	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.19/sh	+$231 cycle +$5,259 [-$1,837…-$581] · 11% credit	79% surv 72%	+$73,149 SAFE cap gain +$17,949
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.65/sh	-$3,176 cycle +$1,852 [-$6,422…-$4,362]	91% surv 89%	+$80,514 SAFE cap gain +$25,314
budget: banked $5,028 debit $3,176 (63% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,852 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,291/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$21,549/mo
vs 50% target ($10,029/mo)	+115%
vs normal income ($20,057/mo)	107% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,549/mo

Downside budget

✓ $753 is at/above CC-SS $751.02: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$55,188

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.05/sh (~25% of the $4.19 collected) or spot ≥ $757.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $753)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.73 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $745.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $745-757.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $757.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$753.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,028	$62,167	+$6,967	+$4,044
+2.5%	$771.82 (2.0σ)	$-17,562	$58,010	+$2,810	-$9,156
+5%	$790.65 (3.7σ)	$-40,152	$53,854	-$1,346	-$9,156

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $751.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $55,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $753): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $55,200 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $56,184 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-984, the opportunity cost of earning $21,549/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (187 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 187 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.816 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $56,184

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.45	12/12	$10,440	$10,440	77%	82%	+$5,105	-$0	0.0%	$56,940 (vs do-nothing +$756)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.38	10/12	$10,350	$10,842	76%	82%	+$5,126	-$0	0.0%	$56,744 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$1.97	12/12	$10,131	$10,131	75%	81%	+$4,598	-$0	0.0%	$57,564 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.79	10/12	$10,740	$11,232	73%	79%	+$4,781	-$0	0.0%	$57,154 (vs do-nothing +$970)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.33	11/12	$10,984	$11,230	72%	79%	+$4,624	-$0	0.0%	$57,845 (vs do-nothing +$1,661)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.73	8/12	$10,380	$11,364	71%	79%	+$4,611	-$0	0.0%	$56,912 (vs do-nothing +$728)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.81	12/12	$10,116	$10,116	70%	77%	+$3,979	-$0	0.0%	$58,572 (vs do-nothing +$2,388)
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.19	12/12	$10,440	$10,440	68%	77%	+$3,980	-$0	0.0%	$59,028 (vs do-nothing +$2,844)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.18	8/12	$10,464	$11,448	68%	77%	+$4,220	-$0	0.0%	$57,272 (vs do-nothing +$1,088)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.74	9/12	$10,569	$11,307	68%	77%	+$4,135	-$0	0.0%	$57,912 (vs do-nothing +$1,728)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	12/12	$10,543	$10,543	67%	76%	+$3,926	-$0	0.0%	$60,120 (vs do-nothing +$3,936)
$757	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.68	11/12	$10,120	$10,366	67%	76%	+$3,745	-$0	0.0%	$59,330 (vs do-nothing +$3,146)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.24	11/12	$10,692	$10,938	66%	76%	+$3,923	-$0	0.0%	$58,846 (vs do-nothing +$2,662)

Show 174 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 174.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.64	8/12	$10,560	$11,544	66%	76%	+$3,960	-$0	0.0%	$57,640 (vs do-nothing +$1,456)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.14	7/12	$11,235	$12,465	66%	76%	+$4,492	-$0	0.0%	$57,108 (vs do-nothing +$924)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.63	11/12	$10,890	$11,136	65%	75%	+$3,881	-$0	0.0%	$59,275 (vs do-nothing +$3,091)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.10	12/12	$10,457	$10,457	65%	75%	+$3,687	-$0	0.0%	$62,520 (vs do-nothing +$6,336)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	11/12	$10,725	$10,971	65%	75%	+$3,787	-$0	0.0%	$60,287 (vs do-nothing +$4,103)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.18	8/12	$10,903	$11,887	65%	75%	+$3,960	-$0	0.0%	$58,072 (vs do-nothing +$1,888)
$756	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.13	10/12	$10,325	$10,817	64%	74%	+$3,583	-$0	0.0%	$59,494 (vs do-nothing +$3,310)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.62	7/12	$11,004	$12,234	64%	74%	+$4,013	-$0	0.0%	$57,444 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.57	11/12	$10,324	$10,570	63%	74%	+$3,493	-$0	0.0%	$62,509 (vs do-nothing +$6,325)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.70	10/12	$11,100	$11,592	63%	74%	+$3,780	-$0	0.0%	$59,064 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.03	10/12	$10,779	$11,271	63%	74%	+$3,609	-$0	0.0%	$60,394 (vs do-nothing +$4,210)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.11	9/12	$10,088	$10,826	62%	73%	+$3,366	-$0	0.0%	$59,145 (vs do-nothing +$2,961)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.07	10/12	$10,100	$10,592	61%	73%	+$3,286	-$0	0.0%	$62,434 (vs do-nothing +$6,250)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.62	9/12	$10,395	$11,133	61%	73%	+$3,394	-$0	0.0%	$59,604 (vs do-nothing +$3,420)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.67	7/12	$11,010	$12,240	61%	73%	+$3,698	-$0	0.0%	$58,179 (vs do-nothing +$1,995)
$755	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.04	9/12	$10,468	$11,206	61%	73%	+$3,318	-$0	0.0%	$59,982 (vs do-nothing +$3,798)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.60	6/12	$11,700	$13,176	61%	73%	+$4,185	-$0	0.0%	$57,252 (vs do-nothing +$1,068)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.54	9/12	$10,684	$11,422	60%	72%	+$3,394	-$0	0.0%	$60,432 (vs do-nothing +$4,248)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.20	8/12	$10,080	$11,064	60%	72%	+$3,189	-$0	0.0%	$58,888 (vs do-nothing +$2,704)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.59	10/12	$10,843	$11,335	60%	72%	+$3,391	-$0	0.0%	$62,954 (vs do-nothing +$6,770)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.61	8/12	$10,058	$11,042	59%	72%	+$3,118	-$0	0.0%	$59,216 (vs do-nothing +$3,032)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.10	6/12	$11,160	$12,636	59%	72%	+$3,642	-$0	0.0%	$57,552 (vs do-nothing +$1,368)
$754	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.14	8/12	$10,280	$11,264	59%	72%	+$3,155	-$0	0.0%	$59,640 (vs do-nothing +$3,456)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.13	9/12	$10,453	$11,191	58%	71%	+$3,142	-$0	0.0%	$62,763 (vs do-nothing +$6,579)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.07	8/12	$10,406	$11,390	58%	71%	+$3,130	-$0	0.0%	$60,384 (vs do-nothing +$4,200)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.19	6/12	$10,774	$12,250	57%	71%	+$3,350	-$0	0.0%	$58,206 (vs do-nothing +$2,022)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.73	8/12	$11,352	$12,336	57%	71%	+$3,327	-$0	0.0%	$59,312 (vs do-nothing +$3,128)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.15	8/12	$11,236	$12,220	56%	70%	+$3,251	-$0	0.0%	$59,648 (vs do-nothing +$3,464)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.69	9/12	$11,173	$11,911	56%	70%	+$3,238	-$0	0.0%	$63,267 (vs do-nothing +$7,083)
$753	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.69	8/12	$11,380	$12,364	56%	70%	+$3,282	-$0	0.0%	$60,080 (vs do-nothing +$3,896)
$752	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.11	5/12	$11,662	$13,384	55%	71%	+$3,671	-$0	0.0%	$57,329 (vs do-nothing +$1,145)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.63	8/12	$11,366	$12,350	55%	70%	+$3,249	-$0	0.0%	$60,832 (vs do-nothing +$4,648)
$752	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.63	5/12	$10,890	$12,612	55%	70%	+$3,219	-$0	0.0%	$57,589 (vs do-nothing +$1,405)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.27	8/12	$10,594	$11,578	54%	70%	+$2,948	-$0	0.0%	$62,944 (vs do-nothing +$6,760)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.74	5/12	$10,157	$11,879	54%	70%	+$2,900	-$0	0.0%	$58,144 (vs do-nothing +$1,960)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.30	7/12	$11,130	$12,360	53%	69%	+$3,030	-$0	0.0%	$59,320 (vs do-nothing +$3,136)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.72	7/12	$10,920	$12,150	53%	69%	+$2,946	-$0	0.0%	$59,614 (vs do-nothing +$3,430)
$752	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.26	7/12	$10,955	$12,185	53%	69%	+$2,956	-$0	0.0%	$59,992 (vs do-nothing +$3,808)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.21	7/12	$10,815	$12,045	53%	69%	+$2,917	-$0	0.0%	$60,657 (vs do-nothing +$4,473)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.87	8/12	$11,280	$12,264	52%	69%	+$3,006	-$0	0.0%	$63,424 (vs do-nothing +$7,240)
$751	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.49	7/12	$10,490	$11,720	51%	68%	+$2,668	-$0	0.0%	$62,939 (vs do-nothing +$6,755)
$751	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.82	6/12	$10,054	$11,530	50%	68%	+$2,538	-$0	0.0%	$60,372 (vs do-nothing +$4,188)
$751	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.86	6/12	$10,290	$11,766	50%	68%	+$2,594	-$0	0.0%	$59,796 (vs do-nothing +$3,612)
$751	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.32	6/12	$10,342	$11,818	50%	68%	+$2,589	-$0	0.0%	$59,472 (vs do-nothing +$3,288)
$751	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.90	6/12	$10,620	$12,096	50%	68%	+$2,670	-$0	0.0%	$59,220 (vs do-nothing +$3,036)
$751	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.33	5/12	$11,421	$13,143	50%	68%	+$2,959	-$0	0.0%	$58,429 (vs do-nothing +$2,245)
$751	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.20	4/12	$10,080	$12,048	50%	68%	+$2,630	-$0	0.0%	$57,528 (vs do-nothing +$1,344)
$751	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.68	4/12	$11,040	$13,008	50%	68%	+$3,045	-$0	0.0%	$57,320 (vs do-nothing +$1,136)
$750	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.10	7/12	$11,100	$12,330	49%	67%	+$2,706	-$0	0.0%	$62,666 (vs do-nothing +$6,482)
$750	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.43	6/12	$10,839	$12,315	48%	67%	+$2,594	-$0	0.0%	$60,138 (vs do-nothing +$3,954)
$750	13d	23 Jul 2026	$7.41	6/12	$10,260	$11,736	48%	66%	+$1,872	-$0	0.0%	$59,526 (vs do-nothing +$3,342)
$750	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.41	6/12	$11,115	$12,591	48%	67%	+$2,537	-$0	0.0%	$59,526 (vs do-nothing +$3,342)
$750	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.88	6/12	$11,258	$12,734	48%	66%	+$2,541	-$0	0.0%	$59,208 (vs do-nothing +$3,024)
$750	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.48	6/12	$11,664	$13,140	47%	66%	+$2,652	-$0	0.0%	$58,968 (vs do-nothing +$2,784)
$749	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.73	6/12	$10,054	$11,530	47%	67%	+$2,350	-$0	0.0%	$61,518 (vs do-nothing +$5,334)
$750	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.96	4/12	$10,217	$12,185	47%	67%	+$2,476	-$0	0.0%	$57,832 (vs do-nothing +$1,648)
$750	6d	16 Jul 2026	$5.33	4/12	$10,660	$12,628	46%	66%	+$2,448	-$0	0.0%	$57,580 (vs do-nothing +$1,396)
$749	14d	24 Jul 2026	$9.03	6/12	$11,610	$13,086	46%	66%	+$2,587	-$0	0.0%	$59,898 (vs do-nothing +$3,714)
$750	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.81	4/12	$11,544	$13,512	46%	66%	+$2,684	-$0	0.0%	$57,372 (vs do-nothing +$1,188)
$748	21d	31 Jul 2026	$12.39	6/12	$10,620	$12,096	46%	66%	+$2,376	-$0	0.0%	$61,314 (vs do-nothing +$5,130)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 03:38