FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $750.86

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $750.86 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-10 09:43 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $750.86 UNDERWATER $13.14 (1.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $750.86 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$20,674/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$52,488	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,337/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$20,674/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.2 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.2 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $750.86 (probe: $751C 14d) still earns $20,674/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 56 · %B 78 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $786.48 (+5%) · daily UBB $756.83 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $758 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($10,337/mo); it brings $10,800/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 11 × $753/7d for $20,743/mo, but breach risk rises to 42% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $764/7d (92% survival, $3,189/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $52,470 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 12 × $758, 76% survival, $10,800/mo (E[net] $2,075/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	12 × $758	76%	$10,800	$2,075

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $2,075/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $758 (primary), 76% survival, breach 24%, $10,800/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $760 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 24% → 18%) for $3,870/mo less (36% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $760 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $750.86 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $764

17 Jul

1.8%

92%

17%

$744

$3,189

-$7,611

Sell 12 × $764 1.8% OTM over spot $750.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid)

= $744 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,189/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $764)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $764.62)

93%

EV / mo

+$2,285

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,177

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 79% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.80/sh now → $4.10 mid-life (likely $3.73–$6.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 544 simulated challenges: the $764 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $766 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$764	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.64/sh	+$772 cycle +$1,516 [+$519…+$1,261] · 99% credit	69% surv 50%	+$68,200 SAFE cap gain +$15,712
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$764	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.56/sh	+$671 cycle +$1,415 [+$398…+$1,150] · 97% credit	70% surv 51%	+$68,257 SAFE cap gain +$15,769
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$772	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,111 cycle +$1,855 [+$50…+$1,585] · 76% credit	76% surv 67%	+$77,336 SAFE cap gain +$24,848
Max even-money escape in the band	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$95 cycle +$839 [-$1,133…+$545] · 38% credit	78% surv 71%	+$78,481 SAFE cap gain +$25,993
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.31/sh	-$374 cycle +$370 [-$1,669…+$54] · 26% credit	79% surv 73%	+$79,091 SAFE cap gain +$26,603
budget: banked $744 debit $374 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$370 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $7,578/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,189/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	-69%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,189/mo

Downside budget

✓ $764 is at/above CC-SS $750.86: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$52,482

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $764.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $764)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $756.36	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $756-764.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $764.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$764.00 (1.2σ)	$744	$67,429	+$14,941	-$300
+2.5%	$783.10 (3.1σ)	$-22,176	$65,137	+$12,649	-$300
+5%	$802.20 (4.9σ)	$-45,096	$62,845	+$10,357	-$300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $750.86, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $764): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,488 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,044, the opportunity cost of earning $3,189/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

11 × $760

17 Jul

1.2%

82%

36%

$1,617

$6,930

-$3,870

Sell 11 × $760 1.2% OTM over spot $750.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.48 mid)

= $1,617 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,930/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $760)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $761.48)

86%

EV / mo

+$4,057

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,870

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$774 @ 83% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.77/sh now → $4.08 mid-life (likely $4.32–$6.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 941 simulated challenges: the $760 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $762 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.74/sh	+$818 cycle +$2,435 [+$432…+$1,126] · 99% credit	69% surv 50%	+$64,887 SAFE cap gain +$12,399
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.06/sh	+$1,170 cycle +$2,787 [-$1…+$1,214] · 75% credit	76% surv 67%	+$73,621 SAFE cap gain +$21,133
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.05/sh	+$56 cycle +$1,673 [-$459…+$201] · 36% credit	71% surv 55%	+$65,361 SAFE cap gain +$12,873
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.21/sh	+$235 cycle +$1,852 [-$1,103…+$217] · 32% credit	78% surv 71%	+$74,645 SAFE cap gain +$22,157
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.22/sh	-$1,341 cycle +$276 [-$3,001…-$1,438] · 5% credit	83% surv 78%	+$76,990 SAFE cap gain +$24,502
budget: banked $1,617 debit $1,341 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$276 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $5,244/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,930/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,191/mo

Downside budget

✓ $760 is at/above CC-SS $750.86: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$48,109

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $761.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $760)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $752.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $752-761.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $761.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$760.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,617	$64,069	+$11,581	+$660
+2.5%	$779.00 (2.7σ)	$-19,283	$62,189	+$9,701	-$3,740
+5%	$798.00 (4.5σ)	$-40,183	$59,909	+$7,421	-$3,740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $750.86, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $760): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$87

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,575 (+$87 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-957, the opportunity cost of earning $6,930/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $758

17 Jul

1.0%

76%

42%

$2,520

$10,800

—

Sell 12 × $758 1.0% OTM over spot $750.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.12 mid)

= $2,520 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $760.12)

82%

EV / mo

+$5,546

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,362

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 86% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $5.75/sh now → $4.07 mid-life (likely $4.51–$6.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,251 simulated challenges: the $758 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $760 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.79/sh	+$953 cycle +$3,473 [+$463…+$1,100] · 99% credit	69% surv 50%	+$63,678 SAFE cap gain +$11,190
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$766	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.13/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$3,878 [-$67…+$1,226] · 73% credit	76% surv 67%	+$72,879 SAFE cap gain +$20,391
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.10/sh	+$122 cycle +$2,642 [-$501…+$201] · 33% credit	71% surv 55%	+$64,083 SAFE cap gain +$11,595
Max even-money escape in the band	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$336 cycle +$2,856 [-$1,254…+$129] · 29% credit	78% surv 71%	+$74,017 SAFE cap gain +$21,529
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.99/sh	-$2,387 cycle +$133 [-$4,584…-$2,744]	86% surv 83%	+$78,854 SAFE cap gain +$26,366
budget: banked $2,520 debit $2,387 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$133 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,159/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,800/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,800/mo

Downside budget

✓ $758 is at/above CC-SS $750.86: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$52,470

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $760.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $758)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $750.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $750-760.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$758.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,520	$62,725	+$10,237	+$1,476
+2.5%	$776.95 (2.5σ)	$-20,220	$60,451	+$7,963	-$5,724
+5%	$795.90 (4.3σ)	$-42,960	$58,177	+$5,689	-$5,724

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $750.86, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $758): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,488 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,044, the opportunity cost of earning $10,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

11 × $753

17 Jul

0.3%

58%

85%

$4,840

$20,743

+$9,943

Sell 11 × $753 0.3% OTM over spot $750.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.42 mid)

= $4,840 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,743/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $753)

58%

Breach risk

42%

POP (stays ≤ $757.41)

72%

EV / mo

+$7,627

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

69%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$394

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $5.72/sh now → $4.04 mid-life (likely $5.40–$7.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,066 simulated challenges: the $753 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $756 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$753	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.92/sh	+$1,010 cycle +$5,850 [+$423…+$758] · 98% credit	69% surv 50%	+$60,741 SAFE cap gain +$8,253
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$761	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.30/sh	+$1,431 cycle +$6,271 [-$305…+$723] · 64% credit	76% surv 67%	+$69,960 SAFE cap gain +$17,472
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.23/sh	+$249 cycle +$5,089 [-$501…-$78] · 20% credit	71% surv 55%	+$61,217 SAFE cap gain +$8,729
Max even-money escape in the band	~$764	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$53 cycle +$4,893 [-$1,986…-$739] · 9% credit	79% surv 72%	+$71,806 SAFE cap gain +$19,318
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.85/sh	-$3,139 cycle +$1,701 [-$6,227…-$4,294]	91% surv 90%	+$79,395 SAFE cap gain +$26,907
budget: banked $4,840 debit $3,139 (65% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,701 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,178/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$20,743/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,004/mo

Downside budget

✓ $753 is at/above CC-SS $750.86: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$48,098

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.10/sh (~25% of the $4.40 collected) or spot ≥ $757.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $753)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $745.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $745-757.41	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $757.41	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$753.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,840	$59,732	+$7,244	+$3,883
+2.5%	$771.82 (2.0σ)	$-15,867	$58,573	+$6,085	-$8,217
+5%	$790.65 (3.8σ)	$-36,575	$56,314	+$3,826	-$8,217

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $750.86, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $753): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$87

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,575 (+$87 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-957, the opportunity cost of earning $20,743/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (166 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 166 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $53,532

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.19	12/12	$10,710	$10,710	81%	86%	+$6,713	-$0	0.0%	$53,916 (vs do-nothing +$384)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.59	11/12	$10,494	$10,755	78%	83%	+$5,893	-$0	0.0%	$54,324 (vs do-nothing +$792)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.51	10/12	$11,325	$11,847	77%	83%	+$6,503	-$0	0.0%	$54,172 (vs do-nothing +$640)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.10	12/12	$10,800	$10,800	76%	82%	+$5,546	-$0	0.0%	$55,008 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.95	9/12	$10,530	$11,313	74%	81%	+$5,462	-$0	0.0%	$54,504 (vs do-nothing +$972)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.48	10/12	$10,629	$11,151	72%	80%	+$5,120	-$0	0.0%	$55,142 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.88	8/12	$11,280	$12,324	72%	80%	+$5,958	-$0	0.0%	$54,340 (vs do-nothing +$808)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.95	12/12	$10,620	$10,620	70%	78%	+$4,754	-$0	0.0%	$56,028 (vs do-nothing +$2,496)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.36	8/12	$11,328	$12,372	69%	78%	+$5,420	-$0	0.0%	$54,724 (vs do-nothing +$1,192)
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.33	12/12	$10,898	$10,898	69%	78%	+$4,680	-$0	0.0%	$56,484 (vs do-nothing +$2,952)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.90	9/12	$11,186	$11,969	69%	78%	+$5,021	-$0	0.0%	$55,359 (vs do-nothing +$1,827)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	12/12	$10,929	$10,929	68%	77%	+$4,478	-$0	0.0%	$57,588 (vs do-nothing +$4,056)
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.81	8/12	$11,240	$12,284	67%	77%	+$5,011	-$0	0.0%	$55,084 (vs do-nothing +$1,552)

Show 153 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 153.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.39	11/12	$11,187	$11,448	67%	77%	+$4,698	-$0	0.0%	$56,304 (vs do-nothing +$2,772)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.31	6/12	$10,395	$11,961	67%	78%	+$5,030	-$0	0.0%	$54,396 (vs do-nothing +$864)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.78	11/12	$11,340	$11,601	66%	76%	+$4,574	-$0	0.0%	$56,733 (vs do-nothing +$3,201)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.71	11/12	$11,102	$11,363	65%	76%	+$4,322	-$0	0.0%	$57,756 (vs do-nothing +$4,224)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	12/12	$10,714	$10,714	65%	75%	+$4,051	-$0	0.0%	$59,988 (vs do-nothing +$6,456)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.37	8/12	$11,554	$12,598	65%	76%	+$4,880	-$0	0.0%	$55,532 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.81	7/12	$11,802	$13,107	65%	76%	+$5,159	-$0	0.0%	$54,890 (vs do-nothing +$1,358)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.87	9/12	$10,449	$11,232	64%	75%	+$4,114	-$0	0.0%	$56,232 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.74	11/12	$10,591	$10,852	64%	74%	+$3,868	-$0	0.0%	$59,989 (vs do-nothing +$6,457)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	10/12	$11,143	$11,665	63%	74%	+$4,122	-$0	0.0%	$57,862 (vs do-nothing +$4,330)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.27	9/12	$10,481	$11,264	63%	74%	+$3,977	-$0	0.0%	$56,592 (vs do-nothing +$3,060)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.78	9/12	$10,755	$11,538	62%	74%	+$3,958	-$0	0.0%	$57,051 (vs do-nothing +$3,519)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.24	10/12	$10,343	$10,865	62%	74%	+$3,628	-$0	0.0%	$59,902 (vs do-nothing +$6,370)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.80	5/12	$10,500	$12,327	62%	75%	+$4,592	-$0	0.0%	$54,497 (vs do-nothing +$965)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.86	7/12	$11,580	$12,885	62%	74%	+$4,509	-$0	0.0%	$55,625 (vs do-nothing +$2,093)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.38	8/12	$10,512	$11,556	60%	73%	+$3,868	-$0	0.0%	$56,340 (vs do-nothing +$2,808)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.72	9/12	$11,031	$11,814	60%	73%	+$3,882	-$0	0.0%	$57,897 (vs do-nothing +$4,365)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.32	6/12	$11,952	$13,518	60%	74%	+$4,777	-$0	0.0%	$55,002 (vs do-nothing +$1,470)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.77	10/12	$11,100	$11,622	60%	73%	+$3,747	-$0	0.0%	$60,432 (vs do-nothing +$6,900)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.79	8/12	$10,451	$11,495	60%	73%	+$3,724	-$0	0.0%	$56,668 (vs do-nothing +$3,136)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.31	9/12	$10,684	$11,467	58%	72%	+$3,486	-$0	0.0%	$60,228 (vs do-nothing +$6,696)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.26	8/12	$10,731	$11,775	58%	72%	+$3,621	-$0	0.0%	$57,844 (vs do-nothing +$4,312)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.40	6/12	$11,314	$12,880	58%	72%	+$4,160	-$0	0.0%	$55,650 (vs do-nothing +$2,118)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.88	9/12	$11,417	$12,200	57%	75%	+$5,289	-$0	0.0%	$60,741 (vs do-nothing +$7,209)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.92	8/12	$11,808	$12,852	57%	72%	+$4,048	-$0	0.0%	$56,772 (vs do-nothing +$3,240)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.34	8/12	$11,651	$12,695	57%	71%	+$3,901	-$0	0.0%	$57,108 (vs do-nothing +$3,576)
$752	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.33	5/12	$12,488	$14,314	56%	73%	+$4,895	-$0	0.0%	$54,762 (vs do-nothing +$1,230)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.83	8/12	$11,709	$12,753	56%	71%	+$3,756	-$0	0.0%	$58,300 (vs do-nothing +$4,768)
$752	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.87	5/12	$11,610	$13,437	55%	72%	+$4,225	-$0	0.0%	$55,032 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.46	8/12	$10,811	$11,855	54%	70%	+$3,265	-$0	0.0%	$60,404 (vs do-nothing +$6,872)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.97	5/12	$10,650	$12,477	54%	71%	+$3,601	-$0	0.0%	$55,582 (vs do-nothing +$2,050)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.50	7/12	$11,550	$12,855	54%	70%	+$3,692	-$0	0.0%	$56,773 (vs do-nothing +$3,241)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.92	7/12	$11,302	$12,607	54%	70%	+$3,542	-$0	0.0%	$57,067 (vs do-nothing +$3,535)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.42	7/12	$11,130	$12,435	53%	70%	+$3,370	-$0	0.0%	$58,117 (vs do-nothing +$4,585)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.07	8/12	$11,509	$12,553	53%	69%	+$3,332	-$0	0.0%	$60,892 (vs do-nothing +$7,360)
$751	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.92	4/12	$11,760	$13,848	51%	70%	+$4,152	-$0	0.0%	$54,752 (vs do-nothing +$1,220)
$751	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.47	4/12	$10,728	$12,816	51%	70%	+$3,577	-$0	0.0%	$54,972 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$751	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.65	7/12	$10,650	$11,955	51%	69%	+$2,941	-$0	0.0%	$60,378 (vs do-nothing +$6,846)
$751	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.58	5/12	$11,957	$13,784	51%	69%	+$3,777	-$0	0.0%	$55,887 (vs do-nothing +$2,355)
$751	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.04	7/12	$12,060	$13,365	51%	69%	+$3,477	-$0	0.0%	$58,551 (vs do-nothing +$5,019)
$751	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.12	6/12	$11,016	$12,582	51%	69%	+$3,301	-$0	0.0%	$56,682 (vs do-nothing +$3,150)
$751	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.53	6/12	$10,685	$12,251	51%	69%	+$3,142	-$0	0.0%	$56,928 (vs do-nothing +$3,396)
$750	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.28	7/12	$11,280	$12,585	49%	68%	+$2,996	-$0	0.0%	$60,220 (vs do-nothing +$6,688)
$750	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.61	6/12	$11,070	$12,636	48%	68%	+$2,972	-$0	0.0%	$57,663 (vs do-nothing +$4,131)
$750	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.57	6/12	$11,355	$12,921	48%	68%	+$2,958	-$0	0.0%	$57,039 (vs do-nothing +$3,507)
$750	11d	21 Jul 2026	$7.11	6/12	$11,635	$13,201	48%	68%	+$3,138	-$0	0.0%	$56,763 (vs do-nothing +$3,231)
$750	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.69	6/12	$12,042	$13,608	48%	68%	+$3,276	-$0	0.0%	$56,511 (vs do-nothing +$2,979)
$749	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.93	7/12	$11,930	$13,235	47%	67%	+$3,046	-$0	0.0%	$59,976 (vs do-nothing +$6,443)
$750	7d	17 Jul 2026	$6.19	4/12	$10,611	$12,699	47%	68%	+$3,077	-$0	0.0%	$55,318 (vs do-nothing +$1,786)
$750	6d	16 Jul 2026	$5.48	4/12	$10,960	$13,048	47%	68%	+$2,999	-$0	0.0%	$55,034 (vs do-nothing +$1,502)
$750	5d	15 Jul 2026	$5.04	4/12	$12,096	$14,184	47%	68%	+$3,539	-$0	0.0%	$54,858 (vs do-nothing +$1,326)
$749	14d	24 Jul 2026	$9.18	6/12	$11,803	$13,369	46%	67%	+$2,925	-$0	0.0%	$57,405 (vs do-nothing +$3,873)
$750	4d	14 Jul 2026	$4.50	4/12	$13,500	$15,588	46%	68%	+$4,128	-$0	0.0%	$54,642 (vs do-nothing +$1,110)
$748	21d	31 Jul 2026	$12.59	6/12	$10,791	$12,357	46%	67%	+$2,642	-$0	0.0%	$58,851 (vs do-nothing +$5,319)
$749	11d	21 Jul 2026	$7.70	5/12	$10,500	$12,327	45%	67%	+$2,580	-$0	0.0%	$56,020 (vs do-nothing +$2,487)
$749	10d	20 Jul 2026	$7.29	5/12	$10,935	$12,762	45%	67%	+$2,701	-$0	0.0%	$55,815 (vs do-nothing +$2,282)
$747	21d	31 Jul 2026	$13.27	6/12	$11,374	$12,940	44%	66%	+$2,674	-$0	0.0%	$58,659 (vs do-nothing +$5,127)
$749	7d	17 Jul 2026	$6.86	4/12	$11,760	$13,848	44%	67%	+$3,154	-$0	0.0%	$55,186 (vs do-nothing +$1,654)
$748	14d	24 Jul 2026	$9.48	6/12	$12,189	$13,755	44%	66%	+$2,496	-$0	0.0%	$56,985 (vs do-nothing +$3,453)
$746	21d	31 Jul 2026	$13.06	6/12	$11,194	$12,760	43%	65%	+$1,928	-$0	0.0%	$57,933 (vs do-nothing +$4,401)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-10 09:43