FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $750.65

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $697.30 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-10 10:23 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $750.65 UNDERWATER $13.35 (1.7% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $697.30 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$20,674/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$52,488	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,337/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$20,674/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
7.2 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
7.2 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $697.30 (probe: $736C 14d) still earns $7,766/mo (38% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

CC-SS ratchet

$750.65 → $697.30

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 77 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 56 · %B 78 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $786.48 (+5%) · daily UBB $756.79 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $758 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($10,337/mo); it brings $10,800/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 11 × $753/7d for $20,743/mo, but breach risk rises to 41% (+18pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $763/7d (90% survival, $4,011/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $52,470 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 12 × $758, 76% survival, $10,800/mo (E[net] $2,095/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	12 × $758	76%	$10,800	$2,095

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $2,095/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $758 (primary), 76% survival, breach 24%, $10,800/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $760 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 24% → 17%) for $3,870/mo less (36% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $760 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $750.65 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $763

17 Jul

1.6%

90%

20%

$936

$4,011

-$6,789

Sell 12 × $763 1.6% OTM over spot $750.65 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.79 mid)

= $936 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,011/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $763)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $763.79)

92%

EV / mo

+$2,829

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,091

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 81% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.92/sh now → $4.19 mid-life (likely $3.90–$6.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $763 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $765 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$763	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.66/sh	+$792 cycle +$1,728 [+$450…+$1,428] · 97% credit	70% surv 50%	+$67,554 SAFE cap gain +$15,066
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$763	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.46/sh	+$549 cycle +$1,485 [+$172…+$1,100] · 87% credit	70% surv 52%	+$67,689 SAFE cap gain +$15,201
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$771	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.85/sh	+$1,017 cycle +$1,953 [-$170…+$1,491] · 70% credit	76% surv 67%	+$76,797 SAFE cap gain +$24,309
Max even-money escape in the band	~$773	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$938 [-$1,341…+$427] · 36% credit	78% surv 71%	+$77,942 SAFE cap gain +$25,454
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.76/sh	-$907 cycle +$29 [-$2,405…-$532] · 17% credit	81% surv 75%	+$79,193 SAFE cap gain +$26,705
budget: banked $936 debit $907 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$29 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,868/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,011/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	-61%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,011/mo

Downside budget

✓ $763 is at/above CC-SS $697.30: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$52,476

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.78 collected) or spot ≥ $763.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $763)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $755.37	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $755-763.79	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $763.79	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$763.00 (1.2σ)	$936	$66,762	+$14,274	-$108
+2.5%	$782.07 (3.0σ)	$-21,954	$64,473	+$11,985	-$1,308
+5%	$801.15 (4.8σ)	$-44,844	$62,184	+$9,696	-$1,308

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $697.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $763): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,488 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,044, the opportunity cost of earning $4,011/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

11 × $760

17 Jul

1.2%

83%

35%

$1,617

$6,930

-$3,870

Sell 11 × $760 1.2% OTM over spot $750.65 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.48 mid)

= $1,617 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,930/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $760)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $761.48)

86%

EV / mo

+$4,192

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,973

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$774 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.90/sh now → $4.17 mid-life (likely $4.29–$6.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 921 simulated challenges: the $760 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $762 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.74/sh	+$811 cycle +$2,428 [+$416…+$1,150] · 98% credit	70% surv 50%	+$65,101 SAFE cap gain +$12,613
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.53/sh	+$588 cycle +$2,205 [+$150…+$888] · 88% credit	70% surv 52%	+$65,256 SAFE cap gain +$12,768
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.95/sh	+$1,047 cycle +$2,664 [-$162…+$1,155] · 69% credit	76% surv 67%	+$73,920 SAFE cap gain +$21,432
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.10/sh	+$113 cycle +$1,730 [-$1,264…+$155] · 29% credit	78% surv 71%	+$74,946 SAFE cap gain +$22,458
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.33/sh	-$1,459 cycle +$158 [-$3,153…-$1,493] · 5% credit	83% surv 79%	+$77,294 SAFE cap gain +$24,806
budget: banked $1,617 debit $1,459 (90% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$158 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $5,219/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,930/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,191/mo

Downside budget

✓ $760 is at/above CC-SS $697.30: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$48,109

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $761.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $760)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $752.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $752-761.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $761.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$760.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,617	$64,290	+$11,802	+$660
+2.5%	$779.00 (2.7σ)	$-19,283	$62,410	+$9,922	-$3,740
+5%	$798.00 (4.5σ)	$-40,183	$60,130	+$7,642	-$3,740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $697.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $760): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$87

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,575 (+$87 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-957, the opportunity cost of earning $6,930/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $758

17 Jul

1.0%

76%

41%

$2,520

$10,800

—

Sell 12 × $758 1.0% OTM over spot $750.65 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.12 mid)

= $2,520 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $760.12)

82%

EV / mo

+$5,762

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

41%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,474

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $5.89/sh now → $4.16 mid-life (likely $4.54–$6.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,220 simulated challenges: the $758 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $760 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.79/sh	+$946 cycle +$3,466 [+$435…+$1,132] · 99% credit	70% surv 50%	+$63,892 SAFE cap gain +$11,404
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.59/sh	+$703 cycle +$3,223 [+$162…+$837] · 89% credit	70% surv 52%	+$64,027 SAFE cap gain +$11,539
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$766	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.02/sh	+$1,226 cycle +$3,746 [-$241…+$1,160] · 68% credit	76% surv 67%	+$73,190 SAFE cap gain +$20,702
Max even-money escape in the band	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.17/sh	+$204 cycle +$2,724 [-$1,437…+$47] · 26% credit	78% surv 71%	+$74,328 SAFE cap gain +$21,840
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.09/sh	-$2,513 cycle +$7 [-$4,722…-$2,830]	86% surv 84%	+$79,171 SAFE cap gain +$26,683
budget: banked $2,520 debit $2,513 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,136/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$10,800/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$10,800/mo

Downside budget

✓ $758 is at/above CC-SS $697.30: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$52,470

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $760.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $758)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $750.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $750-760.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$758.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,520	$62,946	+$10,458	+$1,476
+2.5%	$776.95 (2.5σ)	$-20,220	$60,672	+$8,184	-$5,724
+5%	$795.90 (4.3σ)	$-42,960	$58,398	+$5,910	-$5,724

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $697.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $758): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,488 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,044, the opportunity cost of earning $10,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

11 × $753

17 Jul

0.3%

59%

83%

$4,840

$20,743

+$9,943

Sell 11 × $753 0.3% OTM over spot $750.65 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.42 mid)

= $4,840 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,743/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $753)

59%

Breach risk

41%

POP (stays ≤ $757.41)

73%

EV / mo

+$8,021

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

68%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$292

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$774 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $5.85/sh now → $4.13 mid-life (likely $5.50–$7.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,034 simulated challenges: the $753 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $756 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$753	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.91/sh	+$1,006 cycle +$5,846 [+$403…+$777] · 97% credit	70% surv 50%	+$60,959 SAFE cap gain +$8,471
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$760	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.66/sh	+$1,829 cycle +$6,669 [+$135…+$1,144] · 79% credit	75% surv 65%	+$69,720 SAFE cap gain +$17,232
Max even-money escape in the band	~$763	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.34/sh	+$371 cycle +$5,211 [-$1,633…-$415] · 15% credit	78% surv 71%	+$71,502 SAFE cap gain +$19,014
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.11/sh	+$116 cycle +$4,956 [-$677…-$221] · 15% credit	72% surv 56%	+$61,527 SAFE cap gain +$9,039
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.80/sh	-$3,076 cycle +$1,764 [-$6,140…-$4,206]	90% surv 89%	+$78,900 SAFE cap gain +$26,412
budget: banked $4,840 debit $3,076 (64% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,764 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,454/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$20,743/mo
vs 50% target ($10,337/mo)	+101%
vs normal income ($20,674/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$21,004/mo

Downside budget

✓ $753 is at/above CC-SS $697.30: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$48,098

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.10/sh (~25% of the $4.40 collected) or spot ≥ $757.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $753)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $756.79 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $745.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $745-757.41	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $757.41	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$753.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,840	$59,953	+$7,465	+$3,883
+2.5%	$771.82 (2.0σ)	$-15,867	$58,794	+$6,306	-$8,217
+5%	$790.65 (3.8σ)	$-36,575	$56,535	+$4,047	-$8,217

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $697.30, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $52,488

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $753): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$87

Total Position P&L @ SS: $52,575 (+$87 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $53,532 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-957, the opportunity cost of earning $20,743/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (166 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 166 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $53,532

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.19	12/12	$10,710	$10,710	82%	86%	+$6,979	-$0	0.0%	$53,916 (vs do-nothing +$384)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.59	11/12	$10,494	$10,755	79%	84%	+$6,141	-$0	0.0%	$54,324 (vs do-nothing +$792)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.51	10/12	$11,325	$11,847	78%	84%	+$6,796	-$0	0.0%	$54,172 (vs do-nothing +$640)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.10	12/12	$10,800	$10,800	76%	82%	+$5,762	-$0	0.0%	$55,008 (vs do-nothing +$1,476)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.95	9/12	$10,530	$11,313	74%	81%	+$5,714	-$0	0.0%	$54,504 (vs do-nothing +$972)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.88	8/12	$11,280	$12,324	73%	81%	+$6,257	-$0	0.0%	$54,340 (vs do-nothing +$808)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.48	10/12	$10,629	$11,151	73%	80%	+$5,333	-$0	0.0%	$55,142 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.95	12/12	$10,620	$10,620	71%	79%	+$4,951	-$0	0.0%	$56,028 (vs do-nothing +$2,496)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.36	8/12	$11,328	$12,372	70%	79%	+$5,692	-$0	0.0%	$54,724 (vs do-nothing +$1,192)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.90	9/12	$11,186	$11,969	70%	78%	+$5,244	-$0	0.0%	$55,359 (vs do-nothing +$1,827)
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.33	12/12	$10,898	$10,898	70%	78%	+$4,869	-$0	0.0%	$56,484 (vs do-nothing +$2,952)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	12/12	$10,929	$10,929	68%	77%	+$4,635	-$0	0.0%	$57,588 (vs do-nothing +$4,056)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.31	6/12	$10,395	$11,961	68%	78%	+$5,307	-$0	0.0%	$54,396 (vs do-nothing +$864)

Show 153 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 153.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.81	8/12	$11,240	$12,284	68%	78%	+$5,258	-$0	0.0%	$55,084 (vs do-nothing +$1,552)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.39	11/12	$11,187	$11,448	68%	77%	+$4,903	-$0	0.0%	$56,304 (vs do-nothing +$2,772)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.78	11/12	$11,340	$11,601	66%	76%	+$4,769	-$0	0.0%	$56,733 (vs do-nothing +$3,201)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.37	8/12	$11,554	$12,598	66%	77%	+$5,107	-$0	0.0%	$55,532 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.71	11/12	$11,102	$11,363	66%	76%	+$4,480	-$0	0.0%	$57,756 (vs do-nothing +$4,224)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	12/12	$10,714	$10,714	66%	76%	+$4,167	-$0	0.0%	$59,988 (vs do-nothing +$6,456)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.81	7/12	$11,802	$13,107	66%	77%	+$5,442	-$0	0.0%	$54,890 (vs do-nothing +$1,358)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.87	9/12	$10,449	$11,232	64%	75%	+$4,303	-$0	0.0%	$56,232 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.74	11/12	$10,591	$10,852	64%	75%	+$3,981	-$0	0.0%	$59,989 (vs do-nothing +$6,457)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.27	9/12	$10,481	$11,264	63%	75%	+$4,155	-$0	0.0%	$56,592 (vs do-nothing +$3,060)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	10/12	$11,143	$11,665	63%	75%	+$4,277	-$0	0.0%	$57,862 (vs do-nothing +$4,330)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.80	5/12	$10,500	$12,327	63%	76%	+$4,870	-$0	0.0%	$54,497 (vs do-nothing +$965)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.78	9/12	$10,755	$11,538	62%	74%	+$4,127	-$0	0.0%	$57,051 (vs do-nothing +$3,519)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.86	7/12	$11,580	$12,885	62%	75%	+$4,734	-$0	0.0%	$55,625 (vs do-nothing +$2,093)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.24	10/12	$10,343	$10,865	62%	74%	+$3,737	-$0	0.0%	$59,902 (vs do-nothing +$6,370)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.38	8/12	$10,512	$11,556	61%	74%	+$4,055	-$0	0.0%	$56,340 (vs do-nothing +$2,808)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.72	9/12	$11,031	$11,814	61%	73%	+$4,034	-$0	0.0%	$57,897 (vs do-nothing +$4,365)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.32	6/12	$11,952	$13,518	61%	75%	+$5,059	-$0	0.0%	$55,002 (vs do-nothing +$1,470)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.79	8/12	$10,451	$11,495	60%	73%	+$3,898	-$0	0.0%	$56,668 (vs do-nothing +$3,136)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.77	10/12	$11,100	$11,622	60%	73%	+$3,862	-$0	0.0%	$60,432 (vs do-nothing +$6,900)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.31	9/12	$10,684	$11,467	60%	76%	+$5,161	-$0	0.0%	$60,228 (vs do-nothing +$6,696)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.40	6/12	$11,314	$12,880	59%	73%	+$4,375	-$0	0.0%	$55,650 (vs do-nothing +$2,118)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.26	8/12	$10,731	$11,775	58%	72%	+$3,766	-$0	0.0%	$57,844 (vs do-nothing +$4,312)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.92	8/12	$11,808	$12,852	58%	72%	+$4,254	-$0	0.0%	$56,772 (vs do-nothing +$3,240)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.88	9/12	$11,417	$12,200	58%	75%	+$5,382	-$0	0.0%	$60,741 (vs do-nothing +$7,209)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.34	8/12	$11,651	$12,695	57%	72%	+$4,091	-$0	0.0%	$57,108 (vs do-nothing +$3,576)
$752	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.33	5/12	$12,488	$14,314	57%	73%	+$5,222	-$0	0.0%	$54,762 (vs do-nothing +$1,230)
$752	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.87	5/12	$11,610	$13,437	56%	72%	+$4,494	-$0	0.0%	$55,032 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.83	8/12	$11,709	$12,753	56%	71%	+$3,911	-$0	0.0%	$58,300 (vs do-nothing +$4,768)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.97	5/12	$10,650	$12,477	55%	71%	+$3,799	-$0	0.0%	$55,582 (vs do-nothing +$2,050)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.46	8/12	$10,811	$11,855	55%	70%	+$3,372	-$0	0.0%	$60,404 (vs do-nothing +$6,872)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.50	7/12	$11,550	$12,855	55%	71%	+$3,888	-$0	0.0%	$56,773 (vs do-nothing +$3,241)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.92	7/12	$11,302	$12,607	54%	71%	+$3,722	-$0	0.0%	$57,067 (vs do-nothing +$3,535)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.42	7/12	$11,130	$12,435	54%	70%	+$3,515	-$0	0.0%	$58,117 (vs do-nothing +$4,585)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.07	8/12	$11,509	$12,553	53%	70%	+$3,444	-$0	0.0%	$60,892 (vs do-nothing +$7,360)
$751	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.92	4/12	$11,760	$13,848	52%	71%	+$4,451	-$0	0.0%	$54,752 (vs do-nothing +$1,220)
$751	5d	15 Jul 2026	$4.47	4/12	$10,728	$12,816	52%	71%	+$3,818	-$0	0.0%	$54,972 (vs do-nothing +$1,440)
$751	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.58	5/12	$11,957	$13,784	52%	70%	+$3,993	-$0	0.0%	$55,887 (vs do-nothing +$2,355)
$751	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.12	6/12	$11,016	$12,582	51%	70%	+$3,484	-$0	0.0%	$56,682 (vs do-nothing +$3,150)
$751	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.53	6/12	$10,685	$12,251	51%	69%	+$3,308	-$0	0.0%	$56,928 (vs do-nothing +$3,396)
$751	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.04	7/12	$12,060	$13,365	51%	69%	+$3,630	-$0	0.0%	$58,551 (vs do-nothing +$5,019)
$751	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.65	7/12	$10,650	$11,955	51%	69%	+$3,043	-$0	0.0%	$60,378 (vs do-nothing +$6,846)
$750	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.28	7/12	$11,280	$12,585	49%	68%	+$3,103	-$0	0.0%	$60,819 (vs do-nothing +$7,287)
$750	14d	24 Jul 2026	$8.61	6/12	$11,070	$12,636	49%	68%	+$3,110	-$0	0.0%	$58,176 (vs do-nothing +$4,644)
$750	12d	22 Jul 2026	$7.57	6/12	$11,355	$12,921	49%	68%	+$3,120	-$0	0.0%	$57,552 (vs do-nothing +$4,020)
$750	11d	21 Jul 2026	$7.11	6/12	$11,635	$13,201	49%	68%	+$3,315	-$0	0.0%	$57,276 (vs do-nothing +$3,744)
$750	10d	20 Jul 2026	$6.69	6/12	$12,042	$13,608	48%	68%	+$3,472	-$0	0.0%	$57,024 (vs do-nothing +$3,492)
$750	7d	17 Jul 2026	$6.19	4/12	$10,611	$12,699	48%	69%	+$3,264	-$0	0.0%	$55,660 (vs do-nothing +$2,128)
$749	21d	31 Jul 2026	$11.93	7/12	$11,930	$13,235	48%	68%	+$3,157	-$0	0.0%	$61,274 (vs do-nothing +$7,742)
$750	6d	16 Jul 2026	$5.48	4/12	$10,960	$13,048	48%	68%	+$3,219	-$0	0.0%	$55,376 (vs do-nothing +$1,844)
$750	5d	15 Jul 2026	$5.04	4/12	$12,096	$14,184	47%	69%	+$3,805	-$0	0.0%	$55,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,668)
$750	4d	14 Jul 2026	$4.50	4/12	$13,500	$15,588	47%	69%	+$4,464	-$0	0.0%	$54,984 (vs do-nothing +$1,452)
$749	14d	24 Jul 2026	$9.18	6/12	$11,803	$13,369	47%	68%	+$3,070	-$0	0.0%	$58,518 (vs do-nothing +$4,986)
$748	21d	31 Jul 2026	$12.59	6/12	$10,791	$12,357	46%	67%	+$2,741	-$0	0.0%	$60,564 (vs do-nothing +$7,032)
$749	11d	21 Jul 2026	$7.70	5/12	$10,500	$12,327	46%	67%	+$2,736	-$0	0.0%	$56,947 (vs do-nothing +$3,415)
$749	10d	20 Jul 2026	$7.29	5/12	$10,935	$12,762	45%	67%	+$2,875	-$0	0.0%	$56,742 (vs do-nothing +$3,210)
$749	7d	17 Jul 2026	$6.86	4/12	$11,760	$13,848	45%	67%	+$3,355	-$0	0.0%	$55,928 (vs do-nothing +$2,396)
$747	21d	31 Jul 2026	$13.27	6/12	$11,374	$12,940	45%	67%	+$2,776	-$0	0.0%	$60,972 (vs do-nothing +$7,440)
$748	14d	24 Jul 2026	$9.48	6/12	$12,189	$13,755	45%	66%	+$2,648	-$0	0.0%	$58,698 (vs do-nothing +$5,166)
$749	5d	15 Jul 2026	$5.72	4/12	$13,728	$15,816	43%	67%	+$3,948	-$0	0.0%	$55,472 (vs do-nothing +$1,940)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 10:23