FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $752.79

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.63 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | 2026-07-10 22:04 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $752.79 UNDERWATER $11.21 (1.5% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.63 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$18,386/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$56,556	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,193/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$18,386/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.1 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
8.1 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $693.63 (probe: $738C 14d) still earns $4,629/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

CC-SS ratchet

$752.79 → $693.63

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 58 · %B 81 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $786.63 (+4%) · daily UBB $758.16 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 12 contracts at $759 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($9,193/mo); it brings $9,206/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 11 × $754/7d for $19,046/mo, but breach risk rises to 45% (+19pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $765/7d (91% survival, $2,469/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 12 contracts realizes $56,544 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 12 × $759, 74% survival, $9,206/mo (E[net] $1,902/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	12 × $759	74%	$9,206	$1,902

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,902/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 12 × $759 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $9,206/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $761 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 26% → 19%) for $3,034/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $761 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $752.79 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $765

17 Jul

1.6%

91%

18%

$576

$2,469

-$6,737

Sell 12 × $765 1.6% OTM over spot $752.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid)

= $576 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,469/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $765)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $765.49)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,460

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,523

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 82% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.12–$5.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 539 simulated challenges: the $765 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $767 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.61/sh	+$735 cycle +$1,311 [+$459…+$1,238] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$69,779 SAFE cap gain +$13,223
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.50/sh	+$597 cycle +$1,173 [+$304…+$1,054] · 93% credit	67% surv 51%	+$69,845 SAFE cap gain +$13,289
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$607 cycle +$1,183 [-$201…+$1,095] · 66% credit	80% surv 72%	+$78,636 SAFE cap gain +$22,080
Max even-money escape in the band	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$158 cycle +$734 [-$758…+$613] · 43% credit	81% surv 74%	+$79,163 SAFE cap gain +$22,607
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.23/sh	-$271 cycle +$305 [-$1,298…+$145] · 28% credit	82% surv 76%	+$79,709 SAFE cap gain +$23,153
budget: banked $576 debit $271 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,381/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,469/mo
vs 50% target ($9,193/mo)	-73%
vs normal income ($18,386/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,469/mo

Downside budget

✓ $765 is at/above CC-SS $693.63: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$56,550

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $765.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $765)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $757.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $757-765.49	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $765.49	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$765.00 (1.2σ)	$576	$69,044	+$12,488	+$720
+2.5%	$784.12 (3.0σ)	$-22,374	$64,752	+$8,196	+$720
+5%	$803.25 (4.8σ)	$-45,324	$60,461	+$3,905	+$720

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,556

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $765): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,556 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,612 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,056, the opportunity cost of earning $2,469/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

12 × $761

17 Jul

1.1%

81%

39%

$1,440

$6,171

-$3,034

Sell 12 × $761 1.1% OTM over spot $752.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.21 mid)

= $1,440 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,171/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $761)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $762.21)

84%

EV / mo

+$2,717

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,638

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 85% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $4.81/sh now → $3.40 mid-life (likely $3.64–$5.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,021 simulated challenges: the $761 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $763 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.70/sh	+$840 cycle +$2,280 [+$464…+$1,027] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$66,846 SAFE cap gain +$10,290
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$770	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.66/sh	+$787 cycle +$2,227 [-$130…+$811] · 68% credit	79% surv 72%	+$75,778 SAFE cap gain +$19,222
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$333 cycle +$1,773 [-$686…+$323] · 38% credit	80% surv 74%	+$76,299 SAFE cap gain +$19,743
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$762	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.02/sh	+$25 cycle +$1,465 [-$423…+$125] · 34% credit	70% surv 56%	+$67,211 SAFE cap gain +$10,655
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.01/sh	-$1,207 cycle +$233 [-$2,592…-$1,343] · 5% credit	85% surv 81%	+$78,662 SAFE cap gain +$22,106
budget: banked $1,440 debit $1,207 (84% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$233 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,786/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,171/mo
vs 50% target ($9,193/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($18,386/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,171/mo

Downside budget

✓ $761 is at/above CC-SS $693.63: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$56,544

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $762.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $761)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $753.39	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $753-762.21	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $762.21	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$761.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,440	$66,006	+$9,450	+$384
+2.5%	$780.02 (2.6σ)	$-21,390	$61,736	+$5,180	-$3,216
+5%	$799.05 (4.4σ)	$-44,220	$57,467	+$911	-$3,216

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,556

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $761): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,556 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,612 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,056, the opportunity cost of earning $6,171/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

12 × $759

17 Jul

0.8%

74%

42%

$2,148

$9,206

—

Sell 12 × $759 0.8% OTM over spot $752.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.80 mid)

= $2,148 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,206/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $759)

74%

Breach risk

26%

POP (stays ≤ $760.80)

79%

EV / mo

+$3,460

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,919

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 88% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $4.79/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $3.89–$5.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,257 simulated challenges: the $759 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $761 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.74/sh	+$892 cycle +$3,040 [+$449…+$962] · 99% credit	67% surv 50%	+$65,655 SAFE cap gain +$9,099
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.73/sh	+$877 cycle +$3,025 [-$192…+$712] · 66% credit	79% surv 72%	+$74,624 SAFE cap gain +$18,068
Max even-money escape in the band	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.35/sh	+$420 cycle +$2,568 [-$757…+$218] · 33% credit	80% surv 74%	+$75,143 SAFE cap gain +$18,587
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.07/sh	+$79 cycle +$2,227 [-$445…+$71] · 28% credit	70% surv 56%	+$66,022 SAFE cap gain +$9,466
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.66/sh	-$1,995 cycle +$153 [-$3,879…-$2,404]	88% surv 85%	+$79,558 SAFE cap gain +$23,002
budget: banked $2,148 debit $1,995 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$153 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,454/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,206/mo
vs 50% target ($9,193/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($18,386/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,206/mo

Downside budget

✓ $759 is at/above CC-SS $693.63: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$56,544

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.79 collected) or spot ≥ $760.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $759)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $751.41	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $751-760.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$759.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,148	$64,762	+$8,206	+$1,092
+2.5%	$777.97 (2.4σ)	$-20,622	$60,504	+$3,948	-$4,908
+5%	$796.95 (4.2σ)	$-43,392	$56,246	-$310	-$4,908

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,556

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $759): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,556 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,612 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,056, the opportunity cost of earning $9,206/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

11 × $754

17 Jul

0.2%

55%

91%

$4,444

$19,046

+$9,840

Sell 11 × $754 0.2% OTM over spot $752.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.05 mid)

= $4,444 credit for the 7d cycle → $19,046/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $754)

55%

Breach risk

45%

POP (stays ≤ $758.05)

69%

EV / mo

+$4,796

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

72%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$740

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$775 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.76/sh now → $3.37 mid-life (likely $4.55–$6.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,152 simulated challenges: the $754 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $757 (overshoots $2.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.85/sh	+$936 cycle +$5,380 [+$404…+$690] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$63,205 SAFE cap gain +$6,649
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$763	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.92/sh	+$1,008 cycle +$5,452 [-$231…+$468] · 63% credit	79% surv 71%	+$72,262 SAFE cap gain +$15,706
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.18/sh	+$196 cycle +$4,640 [-$423…-$100] · 18% credit	70% surv 56%	+$63,645 SAFE cap gain +$7,089
Max even-money escape in the band	~$765	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.16/sh	+$174 cycle +$4,618 [-$1,317…-$437] · 10% credit	81% surv 75%	+$73,258 SAFE cap gain +$16,702
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.24/sh	-$2,464 cycle +$1,980 [-$5,068…-$3,447]	90% surv 89%	+$79,376 SAFE cap gain +$22,820
budget: banked $4,444 debit $2,464 (55% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,980 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,067/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$19,046/mo
vs 50% target ($9,193/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($18,386/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$19,310/mo

Downside budget

✓ $754 is at/above CC-SS $693.63: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$51,832

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.04 collected) or spot ≥ $758.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $754)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.16 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $746.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $746-758.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $758.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$754.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,444	$62,268	+$5,712	+$3,476
+2.5%	$772.85 (1.9σ)	$-16,291	$59,039	+$2,483	-$7,524
+5%	$791.70 (3.7σ)	$-37,026	$54,809	-$1,747	-$7,524

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.63, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,556

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $754): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$88

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,644 (+$88 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,612 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-968, the opportunity cost of earning $19,046/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (216 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 216 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.813 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $57,612

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$759	7d	17 Jul 2026	$1.79	12/12	$9,206	$9,206	74%	79%	+$3,460	-$0	0.0%	$58,704 (vs do-nothing +$1,092)
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.21	11/12	$9,982	$10,246	74%	79%	+$3,726	-$0	0.0%	$57,975 (vs do-nothing +$363)
$758	6d	16 Jul 2026	$1.70	11/12	$9,350	$9,614	72%	79%	+$3,414	-$0	0.0%	$58,514 (vs do-nothing +$902)
$758	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.32	12/12	$9,504	$9,504	72%	77%	+$1,638	-$0	0.0%	$58,140 (vs do-nothing +$528)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.66	10/12	$9,960	$10,488	70%	77%	+$3,456	-$0	0.0%	$58,392 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.15	10/12	$9,214	$9,742	70%	77%	+$3,247	-$0	0.0%	$58,882 (vs do-nothing +$1,270)
$757	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.07	9/12	$9,315	$10,107	68%	76%	+$3,081	-$0	0.0%	$58,683 (vs do-nothing +$1,071)
$758	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.63	12/12	$9,468	$9,468	68%	76%	+$3,212	-$0	0.0%	$59,712 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.56	8/12	$9,360	$10,416	68%	76%	+$3,005	-$0	0.0%	$58,156 (vs do-nothing +$544)
$761	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.55	12/12	$9,514	$9,514	68%	78%	+$4,513	-$0	0.0%	$63,216 (vs do-nothing +$5,604)
$759	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.08	12/12	$9,240	$9,240	68%	75%	+$2,643	-$0	0.0%	$60,252 (vs do-nothing +$2,640)
$759	13d	23 Jul 2026	$3.47	12/12	$9,609	$9,609	67%	76%	+$3,222	-$0	0.0%	$60,720 (vs do-nothing +$3,108)
$758	11d	21 Jul 2026	$2.98	12/12	$9,753	$9,753	67%	75%	+$3,170	-$0	0.0%	$60,132 (vs do-nothing +$2,520)

Show 203 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 203.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.55	9/12	$9,836	$10,628	66%	75%	+$3,101	-$0	0.0%	$59,115 (vs do-nothing +$1,503)
$759	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.98	11/12	$9,381	$9,645	66%	75%	+$3,186	-$0	0.0%	$61,022 (vs do-nothing +$3,410)
$760	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.01	11/12	$9,444	$9,708	66%	77%	+$4,380	-$0	0.0%	$63,255 (vs do-nothing +$5,643)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.05	8/12	$9,840	$10,896	66%	75%	+$3,075	-$0	0.0%	$58,548 (vs do-nothing +$936)
$758	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.50	11/12	$9,625	$9,889	65%	74%	+$2,726	-$0	0.0%	$60,494 (vs do-nothing +$2,882)
$758	13d	23 Jul 2026	$3.91	11/12	$9,925	$10,189	65%	74%	+$3,136	-$0	0.0%	$60,945 (vs do-nothing +$3,333)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.44	10/12	$9,514	$10,042	64%	75%	+$3,410	-$0	0.0%	$61,172 (vs do-nothing +$3,560)
$756	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.49	8/12	$9,960	$11,016	64%	74%	+$2,984	-$0	0.0%	$58,900 (vs do-nothing +$1,288)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.49	10/12	$9,271	$9,799	64%	76%	+$4,198	-$0	0.0%	$63,222 (vs do-nothing +$5,610)
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.42	10/12	$9,327	$9,855	64%	74%	+$2,814	-$0	0.0%	$60,152 (vs do-nothing +$2,540)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.06	11/12	$10,098	$10,362	63%	72%	+$1,942	-$0	0.0%	$60,010 (vs do-nothing +$2,398)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.97	7/12	$10,342	$11,662	63%	73%	+$2,932	-$0	0.0%	$58,375 (vs do-nothing +$763)
$757	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.96	10/12	$9,900	$10,428	63%	73%	+$2,999	-$0	0.0%	$60,692 (vs do-nothing +$3,080)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.02	8/12	$10,354	$11,410	63%	73%	+$3,108	-$0	0.0%	$59,324 (vs do-nothing +$1,712)
$757	13d	23 Jul 2026	$4.38	10/12	$10,108	$10,636	62%	73%	+$3,121	-$0	0.0%	$61,112 (vs do-nothing +$3,500)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.00	10/12	$10,000	$10,528	62%	75%	+$4,424	-$0	0.0%	$63,732 (vs do-nothing +$6,120)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.52	9/12	$9,504	$10,296	61%	72%	+$2,736	-$0	0.0%	$59,988 (vs do-nothing +$2,376)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.92	9/12	$9,489	$10,281	61%	72%	+$2,870	-$0	0.0%	$61,248 (vs do-nothing +$3,636)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.49	7/12	$10,458	$11,778	61%	72%	+$2,898	-$0	0.0%	$58,739 (vs do-nothing +$1,127)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.90	9/12	$9,573	$10,365	60%	72%	+$2,680	-$0	0.0%	$60,330 (vs do-nothing +$2,718)
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.96	7/12	$10,360	$11,680	60%	71%	+$2,810	-$0	0.0%	$59,068 (vs do-nothing +$1,456)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.52	9/12	$9,669	$10,461	60%	74%	+$4,166	-$0	0.0%	$63,588 (vs do-nothing +$5,976)
$756	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.45	9/12	$10,012	$10,804	60%	71%	+$2,764	-$0	0.0%	$60,825 (vs do-nothing +$3,213)
$756	13d	23 Jul 2026	$4.87	9/12	$10,115	$10,907	59%	71%	+$2,800	-$0	0.0%	$61,203 (vs do-nothing +$3,591)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.51	7/12	$10,530	$11,850	59%	71%	+$2,871	-$0	0.0%	$59,453 (vs do-nothing +$1,841)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.44	8/12	$9,326	$10,382	58%	71%	+$2,669	-$0	0.0%	$61,260 (vs do-nothing +$3,648)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.02	8/12	$9,648	$10,704	58%	71%	+$2,537	-$0	0.0%	$60,124 (vs do-nothing +$2,512)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.41	8/12	$9,622	$10,678	57%	70%	+$2,480	-$0	0.0%	$60,436 (vs do-nothing +$2,824)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.44	6/12	$10,980	$12,564	57%	70%	+$2,733	-$0	0.0%	$58,548 (vs do-nothing +$936)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.97	8/12	$9,940	$10,996	57%	70%	+$2,605	-$0	0.0%	$60,884 (vs do-nothing +$3,272)
$755	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.40	8/12	$9,969	$11,025	57%	71%	+$2,930	-$0	0.0%	$61,228 (vs do-nothing +$3,616)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.07	8/12	$9,223	$10,279	56%	70%	+$2,573	-$0	0.0%	$63,364 (vs do-nothing +$5,752)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.99	6/12	$10,764	$12,348	56%	70%	+$2,659	-$0	0.0%	$58,878 (vs do-nothing +$1,266)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.98	8/12	$10,251	$11,307	56%	70%	+$2,773	-$0	0.0%	$61,692 (vs do-nothing +$4,080)
$754	6d	16 Jul 2026	$3.47	6/12	$10,410	$11,994	55%	69%	+$2,531	-$0	0.0%	$59,166 (vs do-nothing +$1,554)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.04	6/12	$10,389	$11,973	55%	69%	+$2,616	-$0	0.0%	$59,508 (vs do-nothing +$1,896)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.64	8/12	$9,874	$10,930	55%	70%	+$2,652	-$0	0.0%	$63,820 (vs do-nothing +$6,208)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.57	7/12	$9,597	$10,917	54%	69%	+$2,370	-$0	0.0%	$60,195 (vs do-nothing +$2,583)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.95	7/12	$9,450	$10,770	54%	69%	+$2,259	-$0	0.0%	$60,461 (vs do-nothing +$2,849)
$754	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.52	7/12	$9,660	$10,980	54%	69%	+$2,370	-$0	0.0%	$60,860 (vs do-nothing +$3,248)
$754	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.95	7/12	$9,612	$10,932	54%	69%	+$2,324	-$0	0.0%	$61,161 (vs do-nothing +$3,549)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	7/12	$9,825	$11,145	53%	69%	+$2,509	-$0	0.0%	$61,581 (vs do-nothing +$3,969)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.23	7/12	$9,230	$10,550	53%	72%	+$3,671	-$0	0.0%	$63,457 (vs do-nothing +$5,845)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.97	5/12	$11,138	$12,986	51%	67%	+$2,361	-$0	0.0%	$58,657 (vs do-nothing +$1,045)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.53	5/12	$10,590	$12,438	51%	67%	+$2,268	-$0	0.0%	$58,937 (vs do-nothing +$1,325)
$753	6d	16 Jul 2026	$4.02	5/12	$10,050	$11,898	51%	67%	+$2,162	-$0	0.0%	$59,182 (vs do-nothing +$1,570)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.61	5/12	$9,879	$11,727	51%	67%	+$2,243	-$0	0.0%	$59,477 (vs do-nothing +$1,865)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.14	6/12	$9,252	$10,836	51%	67%	+$1,812	-$0	0.0%	$60,168 (vs do-nothing +$2,556)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.53	7/12	$10,557	$11,877	51%	67%	+$2,319	-$0	0.0%	$60,867 (vs do-nothing +$3,255)
$753	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.11	7/12	$10,692	$12,012	51%	67%	+$2,425	-$0	0.0%	$61,273 (vs do-nothing +$3,661)
$753	13d	23 Jul 2026	$6.53	7/12	$10,548	$11,868	51%	67%	+$2,358	-$0	0.0%	$61,567 (vs do-nothing +$3,955)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.15	6/12	$9,193	$10,777	51%	68%	+$2,219	-$0	0.0%	$61,374 (vs do-nothing +$3,762)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.83	7/12	$9,830	$11,150	51%	71%	+$3,794	-$0	0.0%	$63,877 (vs do-nothing +$6,265)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.45	7/12	$10,450	$11,770	49%	71%	+$3,910	-$0	0.0%	$64,311 (vs do-nothing +$6,699)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.73	6/12	$9,939	$11,523	49%	67%	+$2,225	-$0	0.0%	$61,722 (vs do-nothing +$4,110)
$752	13d	23 Jul 2026	$7.10	6/12	$9,831	$11,415	48%	66%	+$2,009	-$0	0.0%	$61,344 (vs do-nothing +$3,732)
$752	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.68	6/12	$10,020	$11,604	48%	66%	+$2,062	-$0	0.0%	$61,092 (vs do-nothing +$3,480)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.07	6/12	$9,933	$11,517	48%	66%	+$1,929	-$0	0.0%	$60,726 (vs do-nothing +$3,114)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.70	6/12	$10,260	$11,844	48%	66%	+$2,021	-$0	0.0%	$60,504 (vs do-nothing +$2,892)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	5/12	$11,143	$12,991	47%	66%	+$2,297	-$0	0.0%	$59,772 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 22:04