FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $752.48

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $692.45 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $752.48 UNDERWATER $11.52 (1.5% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $692.45 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$18,231/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$57,276	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,116/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$18,231/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $692.45 (probe: $738C 14d) still earns $9,206/mo (50% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

CC-SS ratchet

$752.48 → $692.45

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 57 · %B 80 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $786.63 (+5%) · daily UBB $758.10 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 11 contracts at $758 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 71%, breach 29%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($9,116/mo); it brings $9,381/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 12 × $754/7d for $19,440/mo, but breach risk rises to 44% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $765/7d (91% survival, $2,211/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 11 contracts realizes $52,492 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 11 × $758, 71% survival, $9,381/mo (E[net] $1,807/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	11 × $758	71%	$9,381	$1,807

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,807/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 11 × $758 (primary), 71% survival, breach 29%, $9,381/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $760 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 78% (breach 29% → 22%) for $2,970/mo less (32% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

SPY spot $752.48 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $765

17 Jul

1.7%

91%

17%

$516

$2,211

-$7,170

Sell 12 × $765 1.7% OTM over spot $752.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.43 mid)

= $516 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,211/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $765)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $765.43)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,286

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,521

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$777 @ 80% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.76/sh now → $3.36 mid-life (likely $2.96–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 526 simulated challenges: the $765 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $767 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.58/sh	+$701 cycle +$1,217 [+$476…+$1,251] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$70,783 SAFE cap gain +$13,507
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$766	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.29/sh	+$348 cycle +$864 [+$34…+$792] · 77% credit	68% surv 52%	+$70,940 SAFE cap gain +$13,664
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.56/sh	+$672 cycle +$1,188 [-$251…+$1,158] · 66% credit	77% surv 70%	+$80,099 SAFE cap gain +$22,823
Max even-money escape in the band	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.18/sh	+$218 cycle +$734 [-$778…+$682] · 45% credit	79% surv 72%	+$80,626 SAFE cap gain +$23,350
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$777	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.17/sh	-$200 cycle +$316 [-$1,267…+$246] · 32% credit	80% surv 74%	+$81,190 SAFE cap gain +$23,914
budget: banked $516 debit $200 (39% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$316 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,395/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,211/mo
vs 50% target ($9,116/mo)	-76%
vs normal income ($18,231/mo)	12% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,211/mo

Downside budget

✓ $765 is at/above CC-SS $692.45: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$57,270

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $765.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $765)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $757.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $757-765.43	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $765.43	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$765.00 (1.2σ)	$516	$70,082	+$12,806	+$756
+2.5%	$784.12 (3.0σ)	$-22,434	$65,905	+$8,629	+$756
+5%	$803.25 (4.8σ)	$-45,384	$61,728	+$4,452	+$756

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $692.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,276

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $765): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,276 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,236 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-960, the opportunity cost of earning $2,211/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

11 × $760

17 Jul

1.0%

78%

43%

$1,496

$6,411

-$2,970

Sell 11 × $760 1.0% OTM over spot $752.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.37 mid)

= $1,496 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,411/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $760)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $761.37)

82%

EV / mo

+$2,619

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

37%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,180

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.73/sh now → $3.34 mid-life (likely $3.66–$5.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,106 simulated challenges: the $760 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $762 (overshoots $2.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.69/sh	+$760 cycle +$2,256 [+$390…+$859] · 98% credit	67% surv 50%	+$66,994 SAFE cap gain +$9,718
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.40/sh	+$435 cycle +$1,931 [-$1…+$504] · 75% credit	68% surv 52%	+$67,179 SAFE cap gain +$9,903
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$770	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.71/sh	+$786 cycle +$2,282 [-$281…+$690] · 63% credit	77% surv 70%	+$75,813 SAFE cap gain +$18,537
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.33/sh	+$366 cycle +$1,862 [-$777…+$236] · 34% credit	78% surv 72%	+$76,274 SAFE cap gain +$18,998
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.20/sh	-$1,324 cycle +$172 [-$2,849…-$1,542] · 2% credit	84% surv 81%	+$78,992 SAFE cap gain +$21,716
budget: banked $1,496 debit $1,324 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$172 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $3,920/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,411/mo
vs 50% target ($9,116/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($18,231/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,651/mo

Downside budget

✓ $760 is at/above CC-SS $692.45: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$52,498

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.36 collected) or spot ≥ $761.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $760)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $752.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $752-761.37	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $761.37	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$760.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,496	$66,234	+$8,958	+$616
+2.5%	$779.00 (2.5σ)	$-19,404	$62,484	+$5,208	-$3,784
+5%	$798.00 (4.3σ)	$-40,304	$58,334	+$1,058	-$3,784

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $692.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,276

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $760): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$80

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,356 (+$80 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,236 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-880, the opportunity cost of earning $6,411/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

11 × $758

17 Jul

0.7%

71%

48%

$2,189

$9,381

—

Sell 11 × $758 0.7% OTM over spot $752.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.00 mid)

= $2,189 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,381/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $758)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $760.00)

78%

EV / mo

+$3,251

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

48%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,478

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$777 @ 88% POP

86% survival

Buyback gross: $4.71/sh now → $3.33 mid-life (likely $3.83–$5.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,446 simulated challenges: the $758 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $760 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.73/sh	+$806 cycle +$2,995 [+$401…+$855] · 98% credit	67% surv 50%	+$65,770 SAFE cap gain +$8,494
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.44/sh	+$481 cycle +$2,670 [+$1…+$476] · 75% credit	68% surv 52%	+$65,955 SAFE cap gain +$8,679
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.78/sh	+$854 cycle +$3,043 [-$300…+$655] · 61% credit	77% surv 70%	+$74,810 SAFE cap gain +$17,534
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$44 cycle +$2,233 [-$1,277…-$203] · 19% credit	79% surv 74%	+$75,763 SAFE cap gain +$18,487
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$777	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.82/sh	-$1,998 cycle +$191 [-$3,868…-$2,404]	88% surv 86%	+$79,893 SAFE cap gain +$22,617
budget: banked $2,189 debit $1,998 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$191 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,781/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,381/mo
vs 50% target ($9,116/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($18,231/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,621/mo

Downside budget

✓ $758 is at/above CC-SS $692.45: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$52,492

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $1.99 collected) or spot ≥ $760.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $758)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $750.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $750-760.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$758.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,189	$64,963	+$7,687	+$1,309
+2.5%	$776.95 (2.3σ)	$-18,656	$61,425	+$4,149	-$5,291
+5%	$795.90 (4.1σ)	$-39,501	$57,286	+$10	-$5,291

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $692.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,276

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $758): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$80

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,356 (+$80 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,236 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-880, the opportunity cost of earning $9,381/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

12 × $754

17 Jul

0.2%

56%

88%

$4,536

$19,440

+$10,059

Sell 12 × $754 0.2% OTM over spot $752.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.79 mid)

= $4,536 credit for the 7d cycle → $19,440/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $754)

56%

Breach risk

44%

POP (stays ≤ $757.79)

69%

EV / mo

+$4,648

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

71%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$557

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$776 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $4.48–$6.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,117 simulated challenges: the $754 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $757 (overshoots $2.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$754	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.82/sh	+$980 cycle +$5,516 [+$417…+$716] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$64,284 SAFE cap gain +$7,008
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$763	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.31/sh	+$1,567 cycle +$6,103 [+$108…+$954] · 78% credit	76% surv 68%	+$73,235 SAFE cap gain +$15,959
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.52/sh	+$625 cycle +$5,161 [-$46…+$321] · 70% credit	68% surv 52%	+$64,439 SAFE cap gain +$7,163
Max even-money escape in the band	~$766	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.16/sh	+$188 cycle +$4,724 [-$1,597…-$526] · 9% credit	79% surv 74%	+$74,800 SAFE cap gain +$17,524
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$776	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$2.23/sh	-$2,679 cycle +$1,857 [-$5,436…-$3,728]	90% surv 89%	+$81,749 SAFE cap gain +$24,473
budget: banked $4,536 debit $2,679 (59% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,857 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,166/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$19,440/mo
vs 50% target ($9,116/mo)	+113%
vs normal income ($18,231/mo)	107% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$19,440/mo

Downside budget

✓ $754 is at/above CC-SS $692.45: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$57,264

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.94/sh (~25% of the $3.78 collected) or spot ≥ $757.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $754)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $746.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $746-757.79	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $757.79	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$754.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,536	$63,304	+$6,028	+$3,576
+2.5%	$772.85 (1.9σ)	$-18,084	$59,187	+$1,911	-$8,424
+5%	$791.70 (3.7σ)	$-40,704	$55,070	-$2,206	-$8,424

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $692.45, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $57,276

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $754): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $57,276 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $58,236 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-960, the opportunity cost of earning $19,440/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (212 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 212 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.818 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $58,236

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.06	12/12	$9,540	$9,540	76%	80%	+$3,556	-$0	0.0%	$58,548 (vs do-nothing +$312)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.47	11/12	$9,702	$9,942	72%	78%	+$3,182	-$0	0.0%	$58,973 (vs do-nothing +$737)
$758	6d	16 Jul 2026	$1.53	12/12	$9,180	$9,180	72%	77%	+$1,605	-$0	0.0%	$59,112 (vs do-nothing +$876)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$1.99	11/12	$9,381	$9,621	71%	78%	+$3,251	-$0	0.0%	$59,545 (vs do-nothing +$1,309)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.39	9/12	$9,382	$10,102	70%	77%	+$3,048	-$0	0.0%	$58,767 (vs do-nothing +$531)
$759	13d	23 Jul 2026	$3.37	12/12	$9,332	$9,332	68%	76%	+$3,208	-$0	0.0%	$61,320 (vs do-nothing +$3,084)
$757	6d	16 Jul 2026	$1.88	10/12	$9,400	$9,880	68%	75%	+$1,732	-$0	0.0%	$59,316 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.37	9/12	$9,141	$9,861	68%	76%	+$2,908	-$0	0.0%	$59,649 (vs do-nothing +$1,413)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.83	9/12	$9,882	$10,602	67%	75%	+$2,843	-$0	0.0%	$59,163 (vs do-nothing +$927)
$759	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.84	12/12	$9,874	$9,874	67%	76%	+$3,372	-$0	0.0%	$61,884 (vs do-nothing +$3,648)
$758	11d	21 Jul 2026	$2.82	12/12	$9,229	$9,229	66%	74%	+$1,830	-$0	0.0%	$60,660 (vs do-nothing +$2,424)
$761	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.42	12/12	$9,291	$9,291	66%	75%	+$3,175	-$0	0.0%	$63,780 (vs do-nothing +$5,544)
$758	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.36	11/12	$9,240	$9,480	66%	75%	+$2,995	-$0	0.0%	$61,052 (vs do-nothing +$2,816)

Show 199 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 199.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.85	11/12	$9,405	$9,645	66%	75%	+$2,835	-$0	0.0%	$60,491 (vs do-nothing +$2,255)
$758	13d	23 Jul 2026	$3.80	11/12	$9,646	$9,886	65%	75%	+$3,122	-$0	0.0%	$61,536 (vs do-nothing +$3,300)
$760	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.88	11/12	$9,240	$9,480	65%	74%	+$3,041	-$0	0.0%	$63,824 (vs do-nothing +$5,588)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.77	7/12	$9,292	$10,492	65%	74%	+$2,572	-$0	0.0%	$58,915 (vs do-nothing +$679)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.28	10/12	$9,171	$9,651	64%	74%	+$2,954	-$0	0.0%	$61,716 (vs do-nothing +$3,480)
$756	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.27	9/12	$10,215	$10,935	64%	73%	+$1,908	-$0	0.0%	$59,559 (vs do-nothing +$1,323)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.80	8/12	$9,600	$10,560	64%	73%	+$2,809	-$0	0.0%	$59,836 (vs do-nothing +$1,600)
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.25	11/12	$9,750	$9,990	64%	72%	+$1,992	-$0	0.0%	$60,931 (vs do-nothing +$2,695)
$757	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.80	10/12	$9,500	$9,980	63%	73%	+$2,872	-$0	0.0%	$61,236 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.35	11/12	$9,979	$10,219	63%	73%	+$3,144	-$0	0.0%	$64,341 (vs do-nothing +$6,105)
$757	13d	23 Jul 2026	$4.26	10/12	$9,831	$10,311	63%	73%	+$2,987	-$0	0.0%	$61,696 (vs do-nothing +$3,460)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.24	7/12	$9,408	$10,608	62%	72%	+$2,391	-$0	0.0%	$59,244 (vs do-nothing +$1,008)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.30	10/12	$9,900	$10,380	62%	73%	+$2,757	-$0	0.0%	$60,736 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.77	9/12	$9,199	$9,919	62%	74%	+$3,179	-$0	0.0%	$61,809 (vs do-nothing +$3,573)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.71	10/12	$10,118	$10,598	61%	71%	+$2,090	-$0	0.0%	$61,146 (vs do-nothing +$2,910)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.85	10/12	$9,786	$10,266	61%	72%	+$2,953	-$0	0.0%	$64,286 (vs do-nothing +$6,050)
$756	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.28	9/12	$9,630	$10,350	61%	72%	+$2,723	-$0	0.0%	$61,368 (vs do-nothing +$3,132)
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.71	7/12	$9,485	$10,685	60%	71%	+$1,778	-$0	0.0%	$59,573 (vs do-nothing +$1,337)
$756	13d	23 Jul 2026	$4.75	9/12	$9,865	$10,585	60%	72%	+$2,810	-$0	0.0%	$61,791 (vs do-nothing +$3,555)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.27	7/12	$9,810	$11,010	60%	71%	+$2,607	-$0	0.0%	$59,965 (vs do-nothing +$1,729)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.28	9/12	$10,183	$10,903	60%	73%	+$3,444	-$0	0.0%	$62,268 (vs do-nothing +$4,032)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.37	9/12	$9,476	$10,196	59%	71%	+$2,741	-$0	0.0%	$64,149 (vs do-nothing +$5,913)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.21	6/12	$9,945	$11,385	59%	71%	+$2,359	-$0	0.0%	$59,082 (vs do-nothing +$846)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.20	8/12	$9,164	$10,124	58%	71%	+$2,345	-$0	0.0%	$60,956 (vs do-nothing +$2,720)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.78	9/12	$10,206	$10,926	58%	69%	+$1,750	-$0	0.0%	$60,918 (vs do-nothing +$2,682)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.79	8/12	$9,580	$10,540	58%	70%	+$2,528	-$0	0.0%	$61,428 (vs do-nothing +$3,192)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.71	6/12	$9,756	$11,196	58%	70%	+$2,171	-$0	0.0%	$59,382 (vs do-nothing +$1,146)
$755	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.27	8/12	$9,729	$10,689	57%	70%	+$2,597	-$0	0.0%	$61,812 (vs do-nothing +$3,576)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.81	8/12	$9,960	$10,920	57%	71%	+$3,280	-$0	0.0%	$62,244 (vs do-nothing +$4,008)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.91	9/12	$10,170	$10,890	57%	71%	+$2,840	-$0	0.0%	$64,635 (vs do-nothing +$6,399)
$754	6d	16 Jul 2026	$3.19	6/12	$9,570	$11,010	56%	69%	+$1,758	-$0	0.0%	$59,670 (vs do-nothing +$1,434)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.78	6/12	$9,720	$11,160	56%	69%	+$2,324	-$0	0.0%	$60,024 (vs do-nothing +$1,788)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.30	8/12	$10,320	$11,280	55%	69%	+$2,407	-$0	0.0%	$61,036 (vs do-nothing +$2,800)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.47	8/12	$9,680	$10,640	55%	70%	+$2,604	-$0	0.0%	$64,372 (vs do-nothing +$6,136)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.73	8/12	$10,320	$11,280	55%	69%	+$2,436	-$0	0.0%	$61,380 (vs do-nothing +$3,144)
$754	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.33	7/12	$9,328	$10,528	55%	69%	+$2,292	-$0	0.0%	$61,407 (vs do-nothing +$3,171)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.37	7/12	$9,555	$10,755	54%	70%	+$3,060	-$0	0.0%	$62,135 (vs do-nothing +$3,899)
$754	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.82	7/12	$9,402	$10,602	54%	69%	+$2,363	-$0	0.0%	$61,750 (vs do-nothing +$3,514)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.05	8/12	$10,343	$11,303	53%	69%	+$2,660	-$0	0.0%	$64,836 (vs do-nothing +$6,600)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.72	5/12	$10,200	$11,880	53%	68%	+$2,112	-$0	0.0%	$59,196 (vs do-nothing +$960)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.22	5/12	$9,660	$11,340	53%	67%	+$1,879	-$0	0.0%	$59,446 (vs do-nothing +$1,210)
$753	6d	16 Jul 2026	$3.73	5/12	$9,325	$11,005	52%	67%	+$1,878	-$0	0.0%	$59,701 (vs do-nothing +$1,465)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.33	5/12	$9,279	$10,959	52%	68%	+$2,007	-$0	0.0%	$60,001 (vs do-nothing +$1,765)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.85	7/12	$10,185	$11,385	52%	67%	+$1,757	-$0	0.0%	$61,071 (vs do-nothing +$2,835)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.30	7/12	$10,118	$11,318	52%	68%	+$2,201	-$0	0.0%	$61,386 (vs do-nothing +$3,150)
$753	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.90	7/12	$10,325	$11,525	52%	68%	+$2,352	-$0	0.0%	$61,806 (vs do-nothing +$3,570)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.96	7/12	$10,440	$11,640	52%	70%	+$3,248	-$0	0.0%	$62,548 (vs do-nothing +$4,312)
$753	13d	23 Jul 2026	$6.40	7/12	$10,338	$11,538	52%	68%	+$2,426	-$0	0.0%	$62,156 (vs do-nothing +$3,920)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$9.65	7/12	$9,650	$10,850	52%	68%	+$2,364	-$0	0.0%	$64,431 (vs do-nothing +$6,195)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.26	7/12	$10,260	$11,460	50%	67%	+$2,404	-$0	0.0%	$64,858 (vs do-nothing +$6,622)
$752	13d	23 Jul 2026	$7.00	6/12	$9,692	$11,132	49%	67%	+$2,124	-$0	0.0%	$61,956 (vs do-nothing +$3,720)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$7.57	6/12	$9,733	$11,173	49%	69%	+$2,931	-$0	0.0%	$62,298 (vs do-nothing +$4,062)
$752	12d	22 Jul 2026	$6.50	6/12	$9,750	$11,190	49%	67%	+$2,060	-$0	0.0%	$61,656 (vs do-nothing +$3,420)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.89	6/12	$9,638	$11,078	49%	66%	+$1,918	-$0	0.0%	$61,290 (vs do-nothing +$3,054)
$752	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.44	6/12	$9,792	$11,232	49%	66%	+$1,674	-$0	0.0%	$61,020 (vs do-nothing +$2,784)
$752	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.92	5/12	$10,543	$12,223	49%	66%	+$2,073	-$0	0.0%	$60,296 (vs do-nothing +$2,060)
$752	6d	16 Jul 2026	$4.30	5/12	$10,750	$12,430	48%	66%	+$1,906	-$0	0.0%	$59,986 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)
$751	21d	31 Jul 2026	$10.88	6/12	$9,326	$10,766	48%	67%	+$2,091	-$0	0.0%	$64,284 (vs do-nothing +$6,048)
$752	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.79	5/12	$11,370	$13,050	48%	65%	+$1,931	-$0	0.0%	$59,731 (vs do-nothing +$1,495)
$752	4d	14 Jul 2026	$3.28	4/12	$9,840	$11,760	48%	65%	+$1,731	-$0	0.0%	$59,228 (vs do-nothing +$992)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 22:25