FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $752.88

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.39 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $752.88 UNDERWATER $11.12 (1.5% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.39 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$15,737/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$56,814	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,869/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$15,737/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.5 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
9.5 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $693.39 (probe: $738C 14d) still earns $3,703/mo (24% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,504

CC-SS ratchet

$752.88 → $693.39

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
12x $765C 17 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.25	$1,504	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYEXTENDED · %B 78 (live) · RSI 65 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 58 · %B 81 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $786.63 (+4%) · daily UBB $758.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPStretched but still running: do not fade it with size; 🎯 / 💎. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 11 contracts at $759 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,869/mo); it brings $8,344/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 11 × $755/7d for $16,264/mo, but breach risk rises to 42% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 12 × $765/7d (91% survival, $2,417/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $764, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 11 contracts realizes $52,074 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 12 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 11 × $759, 74% survival, $8,344/mo (E[net] $1,316/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	17 Jul 2026 · 7d	11 × $759	74%	$8,344	$1,316

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,316/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 11 × $759 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $8,344/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $761 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 26% → 20%) for $2,734/mo less (33% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $761 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect SPY to stay flat-to-down near term.

SPY spot $752.88 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

12 × $765

17 Jul

1.6%

91%

19%

$564

$2,417

-$5,927

Sell 12 × $765 1.6% OTM over spot $752.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.47 mid)

= $564 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,417/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $765)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $765.48)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,376

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,431

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$774 @ 75% POP

70% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.71/sh now → $3.33 mid-life (likely $3.07–$5.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 541 simulated challenges: the $765 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $767 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$765	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.65/sh	+$779 cycle +$1,343 [+$492…+$1,207] · 96% credit	67% surv 50%	+$70,011 SAFE cap gain +$13,197
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$772	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.57/sh	+$683 cycle +$1,247 [-$400…+$1,116] · 62% credit	73% surv 65%	+$76,878 SAFE cap gain +$20,064
Max even-money escape in the band	~$773	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.19/sh	+$224 cycle +$788 [-$936…+$635] · 44% credit	74% surv 67%	+$77,397 SAFE cap gain +$20,583
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$766	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.04/sh	+$45 cycle +$609 [-$407…+$397] · 44% credit	68% surv 55%	+$70,372 SAFE cap gain +$13,558
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.15/sh	-$179 cycle +$385 [-$1,408…+$208] · 30% credit	75% surv 70%	+$77,972 SAFE cap gain +$21,158
budget: banked $564 debit $179 (32% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$385 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,362/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,417/mo
vs 50% target ($7,869/mo)	-69%
vs normal income ($15,737/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,417/mo

Downside budget

✓ $765 is at/above CC-SS $693.39: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (12 ct)	$56,808

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $765.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $765)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $757.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $757-765.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $765.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$765.00 (1.1σ)	$564	$69,231	+$12,417	+$708
+2.5%	$784.12 (2.9σ)	$-22,386	$64,986	+$8,172	+$708
+5%	$803.25 (4.7σ)	$-45,336	$60,740	+$3,926	+$708

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,814

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (12 × $765): -$0

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,814 (+$0 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,870 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,056, the opportunity cost of earning $2,417/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal ← lean

11 × $761

17 Jul

1.1%

80%

39%

$1,309

$5,610

-$2,734

Sell 11 × $761 1.1% OTM over spot $752.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.19 mid)

= $1,309 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,610/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $761)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $762.20)

84%

EV / mo

+$2,448

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,334

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$773 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 11 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.57–$5.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 996 simulated challenges: the $761 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $763 (overshoots $2.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$761	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.73/sh	+$807 cycle +$2,116 [+$436…+$902] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$66,959 SAFE cap gain +$10,145
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$767	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.05/sh	+$1,152 cycle +$2,461 [+$34…+$1,106] · 76% credit	71% surv 63%	+$72,978 SAFE cap gain +$16,164
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$762	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.12/sh	+$132 cycle +$1,441 [-$404…+$168] · 35% credit	68% surv 55%	+$67,380 SAFE cap gain +$10,566
Max even-money escape in the band	~$769	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$319 cycle +$1,628 [-$943…+$233] · 33% credit	74% surv 67%	+$73,900 SAFE cap gain +$17,086
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$773	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$0.99/sh	-$1,092 cycle +$217 [-$2,551…-$1,223] · 5% credit	81% surv 77%	+$76,002 SAFE cap gain +$19,188
budget: banked $1,309 debit $1,092 (83% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$217 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $4,253/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,610/mo
vs 50% target ($7,869/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($15,737/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,874/mo

Downside budget

✓ $761 is at/above CC-SS $693.39: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$52,074

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $762.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $761)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $753.39	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $753-762.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $762.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$761.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,309	$66,152	+$9,338	+$341
+2.5%	$780.02 (2.5σ)	$-19,618	$62,229	+$5,415	-$2,959
+5%	$799.05 (4.3σ)	$-40,546	$58,005	+$1,191	-$2,959

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,814

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $761): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$88

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,902 (+$88 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,870 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-968, the opportunity cost of earning $5,610/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

11 × $759

17 Jul

0.8%

74%

45%

$1,947

$8,344

—

Sell 11 × $759 0.8% OTM over spot $752.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.77 mid)

= $1,947 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,344/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $759)

74%

Breach risk

26%

POP (stays ≤ $760.77)

79%

EV / mo

+$3,006

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

45%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,687

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$774 @ 84% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $4.67/sh now → $3.30 mid-life (likely $3.70–$5.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,354 simulated challenges: the $759 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $761 (overshoots $2.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$759	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.78/sh	+$853 cycle +$2,800 [+$440…+$906] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$65,687 SAFE cap gain +$8,873
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$765	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.10/sh	+$1,210 cycle +$3,157 [+$5…+$1,045] · 75% credit	71% surv 63%	+$71,918 SAFE cap gain +$15,104
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$760	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.16/sh	+$177 cycle +$2,124 [-$403…+$131] · 34% credit	68% surv 55%	+$66,106 SAFE cap gain +$9,292
Max even-money escape in the band	~$768	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.00/sh	+$2 cycle +$1,949 [-$1,428…-$214] · 19% credit	75% surv 69%	+$73,344 SAFE cap gain +$16,530
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$774	31 Jul 2026	18d left	-$1.64/sh	-$1,804 cycle +$143 [-$3,607…-$2,115]	84% surv 82%	+$76,806 SAFE cap gain +$19,992
budget: banked $1,947 debit $1,804 (93% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$143 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $3,050/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,344/mo
vs 50% target ($7,869/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($15,737/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,608/mo

Downside budget

✓ $759 is at/above CC-SS $693.39: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$52,074

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.77 collected) or spot ≥ $760.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $759)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $751.41	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $751-760.77	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $760.77	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$759.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,947	$64,834	+$8,020	+$979
+2.5%	$777.97 (2.3σ)	$-18,925	$61,122	+$4,308	-$4,521
+5%	$796.95 (4.1σ)	$-39,798	$56,909	+$95	-$4,521

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,814

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $759): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$88

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,902 (+$88 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,870 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-968, the opportunity cost of earning $8,344/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

11 × $755

17 Jul

0.3%

58%

84%

$3,795

$16,264

+$7,920

Sell 11 × $755 0.3% OTM over spot $752.88 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.46 mid)

= $3,795 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,264/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $755)

58%

Breach risk

42%

POP (stays ≤ $758.46)

71%

EV / mo

+$4,126

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

66%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$180

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 22 Jul 2026)

$767 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $4.65/sh now → $3.29 mid-life (likely $4.38–$6.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,994 simulated challenges: the $755 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $758 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (11 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$755	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.86/sh	+$943 cycle +$4,738 [+$409…+$718] · 97% credit	67% surv 50%	+$63,714 SAFE cap gain +$6,900
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$761	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$1.20/sh	+$1,325 cycle +$5,120 [-$227…+$705] · 67% credit	71% surv 63%	+$70,080 SAFE cap gain +$13,266
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$756	20 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.24/sh	+$266 cycle +$4,061 [-$476…-$42] · 22% credit	68% surv 55%	+$64,131 SAFE cap gain +$7,317
Max even-money escape in the band	~$764	31 Jul 2026	18d left	+$0.10/sh	+$111 cycle +$3,906 [-$1,679…-$573] · 9% credit	75% surv 69%	+$71,789 SAFE cap gain +$14,975
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$767	22 Jul 2026	8d left	-$2.58/sh	-$2,842 cycle +$953 [-$5,086…-$3,676]	90% surv 89%	+$71,470 SAFE cap gain +$14,656
budget: banked $3,795 debit $2,842 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$953 cash · rolled 11 ct earn ≈ $2,897/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$16,264/mo
vs 50% target ($7,869/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($15,737/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$16,528/mo

Downside budget

✓ $755 is at/above CC-SS $693.39: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($148,800)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($148,800)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (11 ct)	$52,069

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $758.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $755)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $758.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $747.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $747-758.46	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $758.46	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$755.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,795	$62,770	+$5,956	+$2,827
+2.5%	$773.87 (2.0σ)	$-16,967	$59,480	+$2,666	-$7,073
+5%	$792.75 (3.7σ)	$-37,730	$55,290	-$1,524	-$7,073

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $693.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $56,814

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0

− CC assignment net of premium (11 × $755): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $764): +$88

Total Position P&L @ SS: $56,902 (+$88 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $57,870 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-968, the opportunity cost of earning $16,264/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on SPY are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (218 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (10 expiries scanned, 218 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $57,870

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$758	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.23	11/12	$8,118	$8,382	75%	80%	+$2,777	-$0	0.0%	$58,255 (vs do-nothing +$385)
$757	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.12	10/12	$8,400	$8,928	74%	79%	+$2,817	-$0	0.0%	$58,110 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$759	7d	17 Jul 2026	$1.77	11/12	$8,344	$8,608	74%	79%	+$3,006	-$0	0.0%	$58,849 (vs do-nothing +$979)
$759	6d	16 Jul 2026	$1.33	12/12	$7,980	$7,980	73%	77%	+$1,009	-$0	0.0%	$58,410 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$759	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.24	12/12	$8,064	$8,064	71%	78%	+$2,870	-$0	0.0%	$59,502 (vs do-nothing +$1,632)
$757	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.55	9/12	$8,370	$9,162	70%	77%	+$2,526	-$0	0.0%	$58,473 (vs do-nothing +$603)
$758	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.12	9/12	$8,177	$8,969	70%	77%	+$2,767	-$0	0.0%	$58,986 (vs do-nothing +$1,116)
$758	6d	16 Jul 2026	$1.65	10/12	$8,250	$8,778	70%	75%	+$1,183	-$0	0.0%	$58,640 (vs do-nothing +$770)
$759	11d	21 Jul 2026	$2.60	12/12	$8,509	$8,509	70%	77%	+$2,950	-$0	0.0%	$59,934 (vs do-nothing +$2,064)
$759	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.06	11/12	$8,415	$8,679	68%	76%	+$2,788	-$0	0.0%	$60,268 (vs do-nothing +$2,398)
$756	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.46	8/12	$8,760	$9,816	68%	76%	+$2,544	-$0	0.0%	$58,334 (vs do-nothing +$464)
$757	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.01	8/12	$8,040	$9,096	68%	76%	+$2,454	-$0	0.0%	$58,774 (vs do-nothing +$904)
$758	10d	20 Jul 2026	$2.62	11/12	$8,646	$8,910	68%	76%	+$2,834	-$0	0.0%	$59,784 (vs do-nothing +$1,914)

Show 205 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 205.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$758	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.00	10/12	$8,182	$8,710	67%	75%	+$2,631	-$0	0.0%	$59,990 (vs do-nothing +$2,120)
$759	13d	23 Jul 2026	$3.00	12/12	$8,308	$8,308	67%	74%	+$1,394	-$0	0.0%	$60,414 (vs do-nothing +$2,544)
$757	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.52	8/12	$8,640	$9,696	66%	75%	+$2,595	-$0	0.0%	$59,182 (vs do-nothing +$1,312)
$759	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.12	12/12	$8,023	$8,023	66%	73%	+$1,174	-$0	0.0%	$60,558 (vs do-nothing +$2,688)
$756	5d	15 Jul 2026	$1.93	7/12	$8,106	$9,426	65%	74%	+$2,158	-$0	0.0%	$58,605 (vs do-nothing +$735)
$758	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.49	10/12	$8,725	$9,253	65%	74%	+$2,718	-$0	0.0%	$60,480 (vs do-nothing +$2,610)
$757	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.05	9/12	$8,235	$9,027	64%	74%	+$2,500	-$0	0.0%	$59,823 (vs do-nothing +$1,953)
$758	13d	23 Jul 2026	$3.40	11/12	$8,631	$8,895	64%	72%	+$1,474	-$0	0.0%	$60,642 (vs do-nothing +$2,772)
$760	21d	31 Jul 2026	$4.78	12/12	$8,194	$8,194	64%	72%	+$1,169	-$0	0.0%	$62,550 (vs do-nothing +$4,680)
$756	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.43	7/12	$8,505	$9,825	64%	73%	+$2,355	-$0	0.0%	$58,955 (vs do-nothing +$1,085)
$758	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.52	11/12	$8,297	$8,561	64%	72%	+$1,244	-$0	0.0%	$60,774 (vs do-nothing +$2,904)
$757	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.44	9/12	$8,444	$9,236	63%	73%	+$2,515	-$0	0.0%	$60,174 (vs do-nothing +$2,304)
$755	4d	14 Jul 2026	$1.86	6/12	$8,370	$9,954	62%	72%	+$2,097	-$0	0.0%	$58,458 (vs do-nothing +$588)
$757	12d	22 Jul 2026	$3.21	10/12	$8,025	$8,553	62%	72%	+$1,032	-$0	0.0%	$60,200 (vs do-nothing +$2,330)
$756	7d	17 Jul 2026	$2.96	7/12	$8,880	$10,200	62%	73%	+$2,493	-$0	0.0%	$59,326 (vs do-nothing +$1,456)
$759	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.17	11/12	$8,124	$8,388	62%	71%	+$1,037	-$0	0.0%	$62,589 (vs do-nothing +$4,719)
$757	13d	23 Jul 2026	$3.82	9/12	$7,934	$8,726	61%	71%	+$1,346	-$0	0.0%	$60,516 (vs do-nothing +$2,646)
$757	14d	24 Jul 2026	$3.92	10/12	$8,400	$8,928	61%	70%	+$1,223	-$0	0.0%	$60,910 (vs do-nothing +$3,040)
$756	10d	20 Jul 2026	$3.52	8/12	$8,448	$9,504	61%	72%	+$2,371	-$0	0.0%	$59,982 (vs do-nothing +$2,112)
$755	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.36	6/12	$8,496	$10,080	61%	71%	+$2,010	-$0	0.0%	$58,758 (vs do-nothing +$888)
$756	11d	21 Jul 2026	$3.92	8/12	$8,553	$9,609	60%	72%	+$2,351	-$0	0.0%	$60,302 (vs do-nothing +$2,432)
$758	21d	31 Jul 2026	$5.58	10/12	$7,971	$8,499	60%	70%	+$900	-$0	0.0%	$62,570 (vs do-nothing +$4,700)
$756	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.43	8/12	$8,860	$9,916	59%	71%	+$2,400	-$0	0.0%	$60,710 (vs do-nothing +$2,840)
$755	6d	16 Jul 2026	$2.89	6/12	$8,670	$10,254	59%	71%	+$2,150	-$0	0.0%	$59,076 (vs do-nothing +$1,206)
$756	13d	23 Jul 2026	$4.27	8/12	$7,883	$8,939	59%	70%	+$1,322	-$0	0.0%	$60,582 (vs do-nothing +$2,712)
$756	14d	24 Jul 2026	$4.56	9/12	$8,794	$9,586	59%	70%	+$1,590	-$0	0.0%	$61,182 (vs do-nothing +$3,312)
$755	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.45	6/12	$8,871	$10,455	58%	71%	+$2,251	-$0	0.0%	$59,412 (vs do-nothing +$1,542)
$757	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.06	10/12	$8,657	$9,185	58%	69%	+$924	-$0	0.0%	$63,050 (vs do-nothing +$5,180)
$755	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.02	7/12	$8,442	$9,762	58%	70%	+$2,173	-$0	0.0%	$60,068 (vs do-nothing +$2,198)
$755	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.44	7/12	$8,476	$9,796	57%	70%	+$2,158	-$0	0.0%	$60,362 (vs do-nothing +$2,492)
$754	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.32	5/12	$8,700	$10,548	57%	69%	+$1,814	-$0	0.0%	$58,590 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$755	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.97	7/12	$8,698	$10,018	56%	70%	+$2,220	-$0	0.0%	$60,733 (vs do-nothing +$2,863)
$756	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.54	9/12	$8,409	$9,201	56%	68%	+$846	-$0	0.0%	$62,964 (vs do-nothing +$5,094)
$755	13d	23 Jul 2026	$4.73	8/12	$8,732	$9,788	56%	68%	+$1,408	-$0	0.0%	$60,950 (vs do-nothing +$3,080)
$755	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.07	8/12	$8,691	$9,747	56%	69%	+$1,574	-$0	0.0%	$61,222 (vs do-nothing +$3,352)
$754	5d	15 Jul 2026	$2.84	5/12	$8,520	$10,368	56%	69%	+$1,745	-$0	0.0%	$58,850 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$754	6d	16 Jul 2026	$3.40	5/12	$8,500	$10,348	55%	69%	+$1,885	-$0	0.0%	$59,130 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$754	7d	17 Jul 2026	$3.98	5/12	$8,529	$10,377	54%	69%	+$1,981	-$0	0.0%	$59,420 (vs do-nothing +$1,550)
$755	21d	31 Jul 2026	$6.81	9/12	$8,756	$9,548	54%	67%	+$542	-$0	0.0%	$63,207 (vs do-nothing +$5,337)
$754	11d	21 Jul 2026	$4.99	6/12	$8,165	$9,749	54%	69%	+$1,950	-$0	0.0%	$60,336 (vs do-nothing +$2,466)
$754	10d	20 Jul 2026	$4.54	6/12	$8,172	$9,756	54%	67%	+$1,321	-$0	0.0%	$60,066 (vs do-nothing +$2,196)
$754	12d	22 Jul 2026	$4.78	7/12	$8,365	$9,685	54%	68%	+$997	-$0	0.0%	$60,600 (vs do-nothing +$2,730)
$754	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.24	7/12	$8,465	$9,785	53%	67%	+$1,337	-$0	0.0%	$60,922 (vs do-nothing +$3,052)
$754	14d	24 Jul 2026	$5.57	7/12	$8,355	$9,675	53%	67%	+$1,457	-$0	0.0%	$61,153 (vs do-nothing +$3,283)
$754	21d	31 Jul 2026	$7.56	8/12	$8,640	$9,696	53%	66%	+$719	-$0	0.0%	$63,214 (vs do-nothing +$5,344)
$753	4d	14 Jul 2026	$2.85	4/12	$8,550	$10,662	51%	66%	+$1,539	-$0	0.0%	$58,658 (vs do-nothing +$788)
$753	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.12	7/12	$8,120	$9,440	51%	65%	+$612	-$0	0.0%	$62,938 (vs do-nothing +$5,068)
$753	5d	15 Jul 2026	$3.38	4/12	$8,112	$10,224	51%	66%	+$1,456	-$0	0.0%	$58,870 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$753	6d	16 Jul 2026	$3.95	4/12	$7,900	$10,012	51%	67%	+$1,547	-$0	0.0%	$59,098 (vs do-nothing +$1,228)
$753	7d	17 Jul 2026	$4.55	5/12	$9,750	$11,598	51%	67%	+$2,054	-$0	0.0%	$59,705 (vs do-nothing +$1,835)
$753	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.12	6/12	$7,869	$9,453	51%	66%	+$1,343	-$0	0.0%	$61,014 (vs do-nothing +$3,144)
$753	13d	23 Jul 2026	$5.81	6/12	$8,045	$9,629	51%	66%	+$1,275	-$0	0.0%	$60,828 (vs do-nothing +$2,958)
$753	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.41	6/12	$8,115	$9,699	51%	66%	+$980	-$0	0.0%	$60,588 (vs do-nothing +$2,718)
$753	10d	20 Jul 2026	$5.11	6/12	$9,198	$10,782	51%	66%	+$1,493	-$0	0.0%	$60,408 (vs do-nothing +$2,538)
$753	11d	21 Jul 2026	$5.57	6/12	$9,115	$10,699	51%	67%	+$1,995	-$0	0.0%	$60,684 (vs do-nothing +$2,814)
$752	21d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	7/12	$8,400	$9,720	49%	64%	+$322	-$0	0.0%	$63,134 (vs do-nothing +$5,264)
$752	14d	24 Jul 2026	$6.59	6/12	$8,473	$10,057	48%	65%	+$1,293	-$0	0.0%	$61,296 (vs do-nothing +$3,426)
$752	13d	23 Jul 2026	$6.36	6/12	$8,806	$10,390	48%	65%	+$1,332	-$0	0.0%	$61,158 (vs do-nothing +$3,288)
$752	12d	22 Jul 2026	$5.49	6/12	$8,235	$9,819	48%	65%	+$241	-$0	0.0%	$60,636 (vs do-nothing +$2,766)
$752	11d	21 Jul 2026	$6.18	5/12	$8,427	$10,275	48%	66%	+$1,711	-$0	0.0%	$60,520 (vs do-nothing +$2,650)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-10 22:35