FORTRESS FIGHT: SPY @ $751.81

BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.23 | 12 contracts (1,200 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

SPY @ $751.81 UNDERWATER $12.19 (1.6% below BE SS)

12 contracts (1,200 sh) | BE SS: $764.00 | CC-SS: $693.23 (banked floor $692.54) | IV: LOW | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $640 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $124.004/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$148,800	(ND $124.00 + SW $0) x 1200
Normal income ref	$17,530/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$55,824	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,765/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$17,530/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
8.5 mo to earn back $148,800

ML VELOCITY
8.5 mo to earn back $148,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $693.23 (probe: $740C 13d) still earns $10,773/mo (61% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$617

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$693.23 → $692.54

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 75 (live) · RSI 64 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 56 · %B 76 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $791.59 (+5%) · daily UBB $758.74 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $693.23 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 12 × $759 27 Jul 2026 (12d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $759)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,984

Income / mo

$9,960

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$762	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.44/sh	+$527 cycle +$4,511 [-$126…+$341] · 66% credit	72% surv 59%
SS $764 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$759	28 Jul 2026	7d left	+$0.12/sh	+$142 cycle +$4,126 [-$43…+$232] · 60% credit	68% surv 50%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$771	31 Jul 2026	10d left	-$3.17/sh	-$3,809 cycle +$175 [-$5,714…-$4,396]	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $3,984 debit $3,809 (96% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$175 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $6,737/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 12 × $757 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $757)

80%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,452

Income / mo

$21,780

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.64/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.91–$5.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 831 simulated challenges: the $757 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $760 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$764	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$2.50/sh	+$3,004 cycle +$4,456 [+$934…+$2,853] · 85% credit	75% surv 66%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$757	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$1.19/sh	+$1,423 cycle +$2,875 [+$393…+$1,360] · 83% credit	68% surv 50%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$758	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.50/sh	+$599 cycle +$2,051 [-$554…+$506] · 55% credit	71% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$770	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$0.16/sh	+$194 cycle +$1,646 [-$2,518…-$59] · 23% credit	83% surv 78%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$775	31 Jul 2026	15d left	-$1.11/sh	-$1,329 cycle +$123 [-$4,517…-$1,649]	89% surv 87%
budget: banked $1,452 debit $1,329 (92% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$123 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $3,520/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 12 × $768 27 Jul 2026 (12d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $768)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,008

Income / mo

$2,520

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 12); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.22/sh now → $5.10 mid-life (likely $4.44–$7.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 653 simulated challenges: the $768 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 12, at $771 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (12 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$770	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.74/sh	+$882 cycle +$1,890 [+$460…+$1,112] · 94% credit	70% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$768	28 Jul 2026	7d left	-$0.12/sh	-$148 cycle +$860 [-$213…+$394] · 56% credit	68% surv 50%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$771	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.19/sh	+$222 cycle +$1,230 [-$291…+$427] · 52% credit	72% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$773	31 Jul 2026	10d left	-$0.81/sh	-$975 cycle +$33 [-$1,733…-$815] · 8% credit	74% surv 64%
budget: banked $1,008 debit $975 (97% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $15,453/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (194 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (9 expiries scanned, 194 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.814 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $57,804

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$760	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.53	12/12	$9,540	$9,540	91%	93%	+$7,454	-$0	0.0%	$56,460 (vs do-nothing $-1,344)
$759	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.71	9/12	$9,585	$10,822	89%	91%	+$7,266	-$0	0.0%	$56,958 (vs do-nothing $-846)
$758	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.94	7/12	$9,870	$11,932	85%	88%	+$6,959	-$0	0.0%	$57,307 (vs do-nothing $-497)
$757	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.21	5/12	$9,075	$11,962	80%	85%	+$5,861	-$0	0.0%	$57,584 (vs do-nothing $-220)
$758	5d	20 Jul 2026	$1.43	11/12	$9,438	$9,850	78%	83%	+$4,911	-$0	0.0%	$57,562 (vs do-nothing $-242)
$760	8d	23 Jul 2026	$2.03	12/12	$9,135	$9,135	77%	82%	+$4,319	-$0	0.0%	$58,260 (vs do-nothing +$456)
$759	6d	21 Jul 2026	$1.47	12/12	$8,820	$8,820	76%	80%	+$2,642	-$0	0.0%	$57,588 (vs do-nothing $-216)
$759	7d	22 Jul 2026	$1.96	11/12	$9,240	$9,652	76%	81%	+$4,328	-$0	0.0%	$58,145 (vs do-nothing +$341)
$758	6d	21 Jul 2026	$1.80	10/12	$9,000	$9,825	75%	81%	+$4,322	-$0	0.0%	$57,954 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$756	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.55	4/12	$9,300	$12,600	75%	82%	+$5,491	-$0	0.0%	$57,764 (vs do-nothing $-40)
$760	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.45	11/12	$8,983	$9,396	75%	81%	+$4,090	-$0	0.0%	$58,684 (vs do-nothing +$880)
$757	5d	20 Jul 2026	$1.76	9/12	$9,504	$10,742	74%	80%	+$4,596	-$0	0.0%	$57,903 (vs do-nothing +$99)
$759	8d	23 Jul 2026	$2.38	10/12	$8,925	$9,750	74%	80%	+$3,952	-$0	0.0%	$58,534 (vs do-nothing +$730)

Show 181 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 181.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$758	7d	22 Jul 2026	$2.31	9/12	$8,910	$10,148	72%	79%	+$3,871	-$0	0.0%	$58,398 (vs do-nothing +$594)
$759	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.82	10/12	$9,400	$10,225	72%	79%	+$3,954	-$0	0.0%	$58,974 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)
$757	6d	21 Jul 2026	$2.16	9/12	$9,720	$10,958	71%	79%	+$4,274	-$0	0.0%	$58,263 (vs do-nothing +$459)
$762	16d	31 Jul 2026	$4.16	12/12	$9,360	$9,360	71%	78%	+$3,816	-$0	0.0%	$60,816 (vs do-nothing +$3,012)
$760	13d	28 Jul 2026	$3.27	12/12	$9,055	$9,055	71%	78%	+$3,294	-$0	0.0%	$59,748 (vs do-nothing +$1,944)
$758	8d	23 Jul 2026	$2.76	9/12	$9,315	$10,552	70%	78%	+$3,837	-$0	0.0%	$58,803 (vs do-nothing +$999)
$759	12d	27 Jul 2026	$3.32	11/12	$9,130	$9,542	70%	78%	+$3,625	-$0	0.0%	$59,641 (vs do-nothing +$1,837)
$755	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.94	4/12	$11,640	$14,940	69%	79%	+$6,156	-$0	0.0%	$57,920 (vs do-nothing +$116)
$761	16d	31 Jul 2026	$4.58	11/12	$9,446	$9,859	69%	77%	+$3,673	-$0	0.0%	$61,027 (vs do-nothing +$3,223)
$757	7d	22 Jul 2026	$2.70	8/12	$9,257	$10,907	69%	77%	+$3,721	-$0	0.0%	$58,644 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$758	9d	24 Jul 2026	$3.22	9/12	$9,660	$10,898	69%	77%	+$3,826	-$0	0.0%	$59,217 (vs do-nothing +$1,413)
$756	5d	20 Jul 2026	$2.15	7/12	$9,030	$11,092	67%	75%	+$2,587	-$0	0.0%	$58,154 (vs do-nothing +$350)
$756	6d	21 Jul 2026	$2.57	7/12	$8,995	$11,058	67%	76%	+$3,623	-$0	0.0%	$58,448 (vs do-nothing +$644)
$758	12d	27 Jul 2026	$3.74	10/12	$9,350	$10,175	67%	76%	+$3,473	-$0	0.0%	$59,894 (vs do-nothing +$2,090)
$757	8d	23 Jul 2026	$3.18	8/12	$9,540	$11,190	67%	76%	+$3,657	-$0	0.0%	$59,028 (vs do-nothing +$1,224)
$760	16d	31 Jul 2026	$5.01	10/12	$9,394	$10,219	67%	76%	+$3,403	-$0	0.0%	$61,164 (vs do-nothing +$3,360)
$757	9d	24 Jul 2026	$3.67	8/12	$9,787	$11,437	66%	75%	+$3,646	-$0	0.0%	$59,420 (vs do-nothing +$1,616)
$756	7d	22 Jul 2026	$3.14	7/12	$9,420	$11,482	65%	75%	+$3,512	-$0	0.0%	$58,847 (vs do-nothing +$1,043)
$759	16d	31 Jul 2026	$5.48	9/12	$9,248	$10,485	65%	75%	+$3,308	-$0	0.0%	$61,251 (vs do-nothing +$3,447)
$757	12d	27 Jul 2026	$4.20	9/12	$9,450	$10,688	64%	75%	+$3,307	-$0	0.0%	$60,099 (vs do-nothing +$2,295)
$756	8d	23 Jul 2026	$3.63	7/12	$9,529	$11,591	64%	74%	+$3,388	-$0	0.0%	$59,190 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)
$754	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.40	3/12	$10,800	$14,512	63%	76%	+$5,122	-$0	0.0%	$58,029 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$755	5d	20 Jul 2026	$2.58	6/12	$9,288	$11,763	63%	73%	+$2,609	-$0	0.0%	$58,362 (vs do-nothing +$558)
$755	6d	21 Jul 2026	$3.03	6/12	$9,090	$11,565	63%	74%	+$3,354	-$0	0.0%	$58,632 (vs do-nothing +$828)
$758	16d	31 Jul 2026	$5.96	8/12	$8,940	$10,590	63%	74%	+$3,062	-$0	0.0%	$61,252 (vs do-nothing +$3,448)
$756	9d	24 Jul 2026	$4.13	7/12	$9,637	$11,699	63%	74%	+$3,333	-$0	0.0%	$59,540 (vs do-nothing +$1,736)
$756	12d	27 Jul 2026	$4.69	8/12	$9,380	$11,030	62%	73%	+$3,089	-$0	0.0%	$60,236 (vs do-nothing +$2,432)
$755	7d	22 Jul 2026	$3.61	6/12	$9,283	$11,758	62%	73%	+$3,183	-$0	0.0%	$58,980 (vs do-nothing +$1,176)
$757	16d	31 Jul 2026	$6.47	8/12	$9,705	$11,355	61%	73%	+$3,099	-$0	0.0%	$61,660 (vs do-nothing +$3,856)
$755	8d	23 Jul 2026	$4.12	6/12	$9,270	$11,745	61%	73%	+$3,061	-$0	0.0%	$59,286 (vs do-nothing +$1,482)
$754	5d	20 Jul 2026	$3.07	5/12	$9,210	$12,097	60%	73%	+$3,341	-$0	0.0%	$58,514 (vs do-nothing +$710)
$755	9d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	6/12	$9,300	$11,775	60%	72%	+$2,961	-$0	0.0%	$59,604 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$754	6d	21 Jul 2026	$3.53	5/12	$8,825	$11,712	59%	72%	+$2,968	-$0	0.0%	$58,744 (vs do-nothing +$940)
$755	12d	27 Jul 2026	$5.21	7/12	$9,118	$11,180	59%	72%	+$2,828	-$0	0.0%	$60,296 (vs do-nothing +$2,492)
$756	16d	31 Jul 2026	$7.00	7/12	$9,188	$11,250	59%	72%	+$2,789	-$0	0.0%	$61,549 (vs do-nothing +$3,745)
$755	13d	28 Jul 2026	$5.62	7/12	$9,078	$11,141	59%	72%	+$3,067	-$0	0.0%	$60,583 (vs do-nothing +$2,779)
$754	7d	22 Jul 2026	$4.13	5/12	$8,850	$11,738	58%	72%	+$2,803	-$0	0.0%	$59,044 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)
$753	2d	17 Jul 2026	$2.91	3/12	$13,095	$16,808	57%	73%	+$5,516	-$0	0.0%	$58,182 (vs do-nothing +$378)
$754	8d	23 Jul 2026	$4.63	6/12	$10,418	$12,892	57%	71%	+$3,218	-$0	0.0%	$59,592 (vs do-nothing +$1,788)
$755	16d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	7/12	$9,909	$11,972	57%	71%	+$2,955	-$0	0.0%	$61,934 (vs do-nothing +$4,130)
$754	9d	24 Jul 2026	$5.18	6/12	$10,360	$12,835	57%	71%	+$3,140	-$0	0.0%	$59,922 (vs do-nothing +$2,118)
$754	12d	27 Jul 2026	$5.76	7/12	$10,080	$12,142	56%	70%	+$2,946	-$0	0.0%	$60,681 (vs do-nothing +$2,877)
$753	5d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	5/12	$10,800	$13,688	56%	71%	+$3,484	-$0	0.0%	$58,779 (vs do-nothing +$975)
$753	6d	21 Jul 2026	$4.08	5/12	$10,200	$13,087	55%	70%	+$3,139	-$0	0.0%	$59,019 (vs do-nothing +$1,215)
$754	16d	31 Jul 2026	$8.12	6/12	$9,135	$11,610	55%	70%	+$2,552	-$0	0.0%	$61,686 (vs do-nothing +$3,882)
$753	7d	22 Jul 2026	$4.68	5/12	$10,029	$12,916	54%	70%	+$2,923	-$0	0.0%	$59,319 (vs do-nothing +$1,515)
$753	8d	23 Jul 2026	$5.19	5/12	$9,731	$12,619	54%	70%	+$2,745	-$0	0.0%	$59,574 (vs do-nothing +$1,770)
$753	9d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	5/12	$9,583	$12,471	54%	69%	+$2,671	-$0	0.0%	$59,854 (vs do-nothing +$2,050)
$753	12d	27 Jul 2026	$6.34	6/12	$9,510	$11,985	54%	69%	+$2,612	-$0	0.0%	$60,618 (vs do-nothing +$2,814)
$753	16d	31 Jul 2026	$8.72	6/12	$9,810	$12,285	53%	69%	+$2,631	-$0	0.0%	$62,046 (vs do-nothing +$4,242)
$752	2d	17 Jul 2026	$3.47	2/12	$10,410	$14,535	51%	71%	+$3,833	-$0	0.0%	$58,168 (vs do-nothing +$364)
$752	5d	20 Jul 2026	$4.17	4/12	$10,008	$13,308	51%	68%	+$2,568	-$0	0.0%	$58,812 (vs do-nothing +$1,008)
$752	6d	21 Jul 2026	$4.66	4/12	$9,320	$12,620	51%	68%	+$2,577	-$0	0.0%	$59,008 (vs do-nothing +$1,204)
$752	7d	22 Jul 2026	$5.26	4/12	$9,017	$12,317	51%	68%	+$2,390	-$0	0.0%	$59,248 (vs do-nothing +$1,444)
$752	8d	23 Jul 2026	$5.77	5/12	$10,819	$13,706	51%	68%	+$2,845	-$0	0.0%	$59,864 (vs do-nothing +$2,060)
$752	16d	31 Jul 2026	$9.33	6/12	$10,496	$12,971	51%	68%	+$2,680	-$0	0.0%	$62,412 (vs do-nothing +$4,608)
$752	9d	24 Jul 2026	$6.35	5/12	$10,583	$13,471	51%	68%	+$2,750	-$0	0.0%	$60,154 (vs do-nothing +$2,350)
$752	12d	27 Jul 2026	$6.94	6/12	$10,410	$12,885	51%	68%	+$2,673	-$0	0.0%	$60,978 (vs do-nothing +$3,174)
$751	16d	31 Jul 2026	$9.87	5/12	$9,253	$12,141	49%	67%	+$2,251	-$0	0.0%	$61,914 (vs do-nothing +$4,110)
$751	12d	27 Jul 2026	$7.48	5/12	$9,350	$12,238	48%	67%	+$2,183	-$0	0.0%	$60,719 (vs do-nothing +$2,915)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 12 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-15 03:39